Navigation FX - Technical Analysis

USD/CAD – Bearish Golf Flag Formation (BY NAVIGATION FX)

USDCAD had appreciated on the recent news of the OPEC agreement with Crude & Brent Oil rising over 10%.

A channel was formed as shown in our previous posts in which had broke.

Currently USDCAD is showing bearish momentum with RSI down steeply at 41 points. If USDCAD breaks the golf flag formation, it may well drop down to the 100DMA (Orange line) to 1.3180 bringing in over 60 pips.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdcad-t...al-analysis-2/

EUR/USD channel with 38.2 fibo and 200 H4 MA crossing

EURUSD has been under pressure since the increase in USD from president elect trump and the Italian referendum, however since this afternoon EUR has recovered significantly among many of it’s pairs.

The image below shows the Daily EURUSD which has strong channel forming.

With the slight bullish trend, the H4 gives us a clearer picture of its momentum.

RSI is at 45 viewing to us that it is undersold and that buying momentum is increasing.

We can see that at the 38.2 fibo level the 200 H4 DMA crosses. At this level we may see a sudden outbreak of buyers at 1.08070 bringing in potentially 80 pips.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/eurusd-t...al-analysis-2/

AUD/USD Ascending triangle with strong support

Yesterday the RBA held interest rates again at +1.5% for December.

We can see on the technical analysis that there is a strong resistance at 0.7498, with an ascending triangle being formed.

There is also stipulation that if the resistance is broken that buying momentum will significantly increase hitting the 200 DMA gaining a minimum of 30 pips. If this does happen, the new resistance may well act at 0.7550 0.7581 respectively, just surpassing the 50 and 100 DMA.

GBPCHF - Technical Analysis

The technical drawing shows a strong resistance at the 50.0 fibo level at 1.2897 with a descending triangle.
Adding to this RSI has dipped below 70, showing to us that buyers have overbought and are now slowly selling.
This may show a good opportunity to go short on GBPCHF.

A good support would be at the 38.2 fibo level at 1.2518. We may see a strong reaction once the 50 DMA and 100 DMA meet.
For more on this analysis and totally free SMS forex signals: http://www.navigationfx.com/gbpchf-technical-analysis/

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USD/TRY – Triangle formation, breakout imminent

A few of you have been asking us to post a technical analysis of an exotic pair, so we choose to do one that we believe will bring in plenty of pips.

As many of you know, the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar has been its weakest in history with the TRY under constant pressure from the political instability and terrorist attacks that looms over the country. The strong dollar has also aided its depreciation.

A triangle formation has formed and we can see on the analysis that the triangle has been tested many times. With the continuing uncertainty in Turkey, when the triangle breaks, we may expect to see TRY depreciate at least 200 pips.

Just to note that the image shows a H1 graph. RSI is at 66... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdtry-technical-analysis/

USD/JPY ISOSCELES TRIANGLE

Markets have begun to enter the Christmas and New Year holiday season with the near end to 2016. Today we have seen significant moves within durable goods orders and growth data from the US.

In todays technical analysis, we highlighted an isosceles triangle formation in USDJPY which implies to us that there will be a significant movements if the triangle is broken either up or down the triangle.

The important points to note are 117.90 and 117.40 for a potential breakout... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdjpy-technical-analysis/

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USD/TRY TRIANGLE FORMATION, BREAKOUT

In the last week week of the year we have seen an increase in US dollar vs. TL. We see that the Turkish Lira has been depreciating against the US dollar against more than other emerging market currencies.

The past few days have shown that buyers remain control in this parity, breaking upwards in a triangle formation.
We see RSI flipping over, reaching towards 70 indicating that buyers are continuing their stance. Important places to note are 3.55-3.56 and 3.5960 resistances, where these points will react to increases.... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdtry-t...al-analysis-2/

USD/JPY STRONG RESISTANCE
The Japanese Yen has been on a bearish run for some time now. There is pressure with regards to 2017 Monetary Policy divergence for both countries. The US aims at tightening the FED and in contrast Japans BOJ looks to ease.

By looking at the weekly view, we can really see that there was considerable support at 118.50 118.69 in late November 2014 to January 2016.

The new resistance now formed on the 11th December 2016... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdjpy-t...al-analysis-2/

USD/CAD – BULLISH CHANNEL

We see that USDCAD has formed a bearish channel since early May 2016.

The parity climbed above 1.36 in the last week of 2016. Oil prices have risen, pushing the direction down over 400 pips.

USDCAD bounced the fourth time on the channel on the 6th January 2016. We see that RSI is near the 40 region as well as the 100 DMA, meaning that it could well continue this trend.

We may see the channel break if Wednesday the 18th January’s BoC interest rate decision decides to take a negative course. Also to look out is CPI and Core Retail sales data on Friday 20th January.

NZD/USD – CHANNEL FORMED with KEY SUPPORTS

If you remember a couple weeks ago we posted a technical analysis of the NZDUSD channel changing direction perpendicular to itself.

We see that the channel had changed direction. RSI suggests to us that the momentum has changed from buying to selling again, which corresponds with the channel we have drawn.

We see a key support at 0.6945, where this has been tested many times over the year, but only once this has broken and tested the channel. If the support breaks again, this may be a good time to put a sell order as we may see the parity go down further by 80 pips to the next key support at 0.6886-0.6877.

We will keep an eye on this channel and update you as to if the 0.6886-0.6877 is broken.

For more please see: http://www.navigationfx.com/nzdusd-t...al-analysis-4/

GBP/USD – DESCENDING TREND LINE

GBP has been falling with the wake that the UK may have a 'hard brexit' as opposed to a soft brexit. Recent developments include that the UK may not even have access to the EU single market.

Just come out a few minutes ago trade balance data has significantly missed expectations. A post that we will follow soon.
We can see in the technical analysis that the GBP is following a descending triangle. Key resistance points include 1.21059 which it had just tested. RSI daily is indicating that sellers are continuing to enter the market.

If the resistance of 1.21059 breaks, we may surely see sellers enter the market and rally the parity down further to 1.20658, making a potential of 40 pips.

USD/CHF Ascending Trend Line

Yesterdays press conference with President-Elect Donald Trump was an interesting one to say the least. All talk about Russia and nothing on financial policies. Since after, we saw significant bullish movements in safe havens such as Gold, Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

Technically we can see here that the parity has tested this support line on a few times. Just to let you know the graphic below is a 4-Hour chart (H4). Even though this an ascending trend line, the RSI is suggesting to us that selling momentum is increasing, meaning that if it tests again, it could break out.

If it were to break out, the next support would certainly be at 1.0000. A dangerous area as this is a psychological resistance, make sure to be careful in this vicinity... for more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdchf-t...al-analysis-2/

EUR/JPY - BUTTERFLY FORMATION

EURJPY had finally exited the range between 121.85 and 124.10. We see that a butterfly formation has occurred and the course of the path has become bullish.
Although the formation does not give us a clear level, it suggests that a recovery may continue.

If the upward movement progresses, resistance points are in the regions of 122.70 and 123.00. Undoubtedly, it is necessary to support the basic factors in order for the formation to pass through... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/eurjpy-technical-analysis/

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USD/TRY – Technical Analysis

On January 19th a senior adviser to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that interest rates were “on the table” as an option for the central bank to combat sharp falls in the lira but that it also had other instruments at its disposal.
“The interest rate weapon is important but markets will see it is not the only weapon against forex volatility,” Erdogan aide Cemil Ertem said in an interview with broadcaster NTV.

The central bank holds a policy meeting on Jan. 24. Many investors say a sharp interest rate hike is needed to stop the lira’s falls, but Erdogan and some of the government believe borrowing costs need to fall to help spur growth.

Ertem said the central bank’s hands were not tied and that its latest steps, which have included measures to tighten lira liquidity, had reduced currency volatility. (Reporting by Nevzat Devranoglu and Daren Butler; Editing by Nick Tattersall) – More from Reuters

Technically we can see a nice bullish trendline which has been formed with the 50 H4 MA acting as a support. Resistance shows at 3.8149 for this, and if it breaks up, we can easily see it push further to 3.8249.

If the trend-line were to break, we could see selling monentum increase making it fall to 3.74700. if selling momentum is really strong, we could see it go down to 3.70616.

USD/CAD BULLISH CHANNEL

We see that USDCAD has formed a bearish channel since early May 2016.

The parity climbed above 1.36 in the last week of 2016. Oil prices have risen, pushing the direction down over 400 pips.
USDCAD bounced the fourth time on the channel on the 6th January 2016. We see that RSI is near the 40 region as well as the 100 DMA, meaning that it could well continue this trend.

We may see the channel break if Wednesday the 18th Januarys BoC interest rate decision decides to take a negative course. Also to look out is CPI and Core Retail sales data on Friday 20th January.

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