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  • #1,021
  • Dec 27, 2016 2:25pm Dec 27, 2016 2:25pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Can you provide me with a reference & page from VBPT that provides an example how & why the SF is used in analysis? TPO_AB>TPO_BL , TPO_BL>TPO_AB ,TPO_AB/TPO_BL....... none = SF They are TPO measures of imbalance , and have nothing to do with the "quality" of the shape of the profile. It seems you missed TPO analysis in both MOM and VBPT.
It seems that you've missed my last 3-4 posts.
I've already explained to ruma that they are two totally different SF calculation, as already said SF_jonesandciscowebsite and SF_frombandungindicator are not comparable.
The first "measure" the quality of bell distribution, the last "measure" imbalance, SF_frombandungindicator = TPO_AB/TPO_BL.
  • #1,022
  • Dec 27, 2016 3:02pm Dec 27, 2016 3:02pm
Quoting thetail
{quote} It seems that you've missed my last 3-4 posts. I've already explained to ruma that they are two totally different SF calculation, as already said SF_jonesandciscowebsite and SF_frombandungindicator are not comparable. The first "measure" the quality of bell distribution, the last "measure" imbalance, SF_frombandungindicator = TPO_AB/TPO_BL.
I did read your posts.........
you still haven't given me a working example found in VBPT, about how SF is used for analysis.

Forget the calculations! First, What is it's purpose, and how is it used in analysis and where does it apply?
Calculations mean absolutely nothing when you have no clue what you are calculating and why?

Quoting thetail
SF is one of the references that can be useful to understand what happens in the market.
how is it useful to understand what happens in the market? How is it used (useful), to understand what?
Show me a working example from the source material of how the SF is used in analysis?

How is it used as described in VBPT? How is it used the the examples? When and why should SF be used in analysis?
Why spend the time calculate something if you don't know what to do with it.........
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,023
  • Edited 5:35pm Dec 27, 2016 4:46pm | Edited 5:35pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I did read your posts......... you still haven't given me a working example found in VBPT, about how SF is used for analysis. Forget the calculations! First, What is it's purpose, and how is it used in analysis and where does it apply? Calculations mean absolutely nothing when you have no clue what you are calculating and why? {quote} how is it useful to understand what happens in the market? How is it used (useful), to understand what? Show me a working example from the source material of how the SF is used in analysis? How is it used as...
Shape Factor appears only as reference in tables, nothing in the body of the book is directly named as Shape Factor.
Anyway this is the "why":
VBPT 105
The market's structure, the shape and form of the price-volume distribution, is the first measure of the quality of the information.
A clean bell-shaped structure indicates a stable market, one for which the market condition can be used to locate reference points (bracket limits and
value). If the structure is ragged, value is known with poor accuracy if at all.
...
Non-bell-shaped distributions are poor bracket indicators.


And is a proprietary indicator, so "I don't spend the time calculate something" simply because I don't know how calculate it...

I have no interest in it.
The SF that I use for imbalance analysis is the SF_bandung.
  • #1,024
  • Dec 27, 2016 6:21pm Dec 27, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting thetail
{quote} The SF that I use for imbalance analysis is the SF_bandung.
Imbalance analysis of what?
Market condition? Buyers & sellers? Brackets?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,026
  • Edited 5:20pm Dec 28, 2016 6:03am | Edited 5:20pm
Quoting ruma29
{quote} Every my post is ticket to ignore list until happens........
It's a done deal.......

Did you even read the "context" of the post you borrowed the image from?

Quoting mzvega
..So when they updated their systems & database, they discontinued both RI/QC and the CME Volume data from the "New" VG as well. Old VG & New VG....................
If it wasn't included in the "New VG", it was removed with purpose!!!!
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,027
  • Dec 29, 2016 12:28pm Dec 29, 2016 12:28pm
The difference between a Hypothesis (assumption) and a Theory is empirical evidence. A hypothesis becomes a theory, through empirical research & testing. A hypothesis becomes Theory when supported by empirical evidence.

I proved a point by responding to the SF comments...........

The above information can be found in VBPT by taking the time to read it. SF there is no explanation for its use. If there are no instructions for its use why, are you calculating it?. Nowhere are you instructed to use it , But in a matter of a few posts ............

Instead of reading the source material for instructions, and modeling your spreadsheets after the models used in the source material examples, people start trying to calculate things without knowing what's being calculated and why.

So far every question asked is a result of not having read the source material...

VBPT 105
The market's structure, the shape and form of the price-volume distribution, is the first measure of the "quality of the information"....

It did not say: is the first measure of the "quality/shape of the profile"
Nor did it say anything about SF.

It's not an "objective" reference (variable) thats why it's not used in Value Analytics. No where in the examples is it used.
If people read VBPT, or the very least, followed the thread first, they would have known that empirical testing proves you can't predict the day's activity by the shape of the profile using pattern recognition. Profiles are frequency distributions, not Gaussian distributions, therefore Gaussian statistical analysis does not apply. A distribution may have a bell shape and still not be Gaussian.


From a previous post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post9030223)

"Jones and a colleague created a computer program to empirically test the day types. When empirically tested showed there where over a million different types. Proving that you cant "predict" the days activity using the concept of day type using pattern recognition.

MP every day is modeled after a bell curve/normal distribution/Gaussian & std. dev. The point is the data is rarely if at all "normal". If you have a math background, If your data is not normally distributed, it is invalid to apply Normal/Gaussian statistical analysis. MP every day produces levels (std. dev) "assumed" to be normal. A distribution may have a bell shape and still not be Gaussian. That would mean that at the very least, that the values obtained are questionable.

"The reason that there is so much use of standard distribution functions is that these functions often have some known limited/approximation solutions and maybe, with some stretching and pulling, one can apply those special solutions to a market at hand. The danger is that the application's data may not be a proper fit to the assumed distribution function and hence the answer is in error (for the purposes of an analysis)" - D.L. Jones

If you take a look Jones's resume it pretty much reads "rocket scientist" (PHD Aero Engr Sci). In his resume he explains how his work in locating Jupiter radio sources, explains his findings about normally distributed data used in market analysis. https://web.archive.org/web/20150814130053/http://cisco-futures.com/meetdonjones.html

"Lastly, a rule in science is that a theory, a proposition, must stand up to independent testing. Value Analytics employs these rules". D.L. Jones"
end of post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post9030223


AMVA uses methods you can "prove" with empirical evidence , and discards "assumptions" that can not be supported by empirical evidence.
You can not predict future prices, by the shape of the profile using "pattern Recognition". Those that believe in that faulty "assumption", haven't read the source material. Those that think SF carries tradable information based on the shape of the profile, haven't read the source material...
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,028
  • Dec 29, 2016 12:56pm Dec 29, 2016 12:56pm
Can anyone here tell me the rules in locating "Bracket Limits"?

I ask because if you don't know the rules about "Bracket Limits", then the results of your reference points are in question.
It's pointless in me continuing to answer questions about overlay references & calcualtions when someone doesn't know the definition of a bracket or how an overlay constructed........

DL.....this question doesn't apply to you........
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,029
  • Dec 30, 2016 6:32am Dec 30, 2016 6:32am
Quoting mzvega
Can anyone here tell me the rules in locating "Bracket Limits"? I ask because if you don't know the rules about "Bracket Limits", then the results of your reference points are in question. It's pointless in me continuing to answer questions about overlay references & calcualtions when someone doesn't know the definition of a bracket or how an overlay constructed........ DL.....this question doesn't apply to you........
This was a screen shot on my desktop as a reminder
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  • #1,030
  • Dec 30, 2016 6:40am Dec 30, 2016 6:40am
Quoting JPworks
{quote} This was a screen shot on my desktop as a reminder {image}
What are the rules for locating bracket limits?
How do you know if a profile is bracketing or not bracketing?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,031
  • Dec 30, 2016 7:28am Dec 30, 2016 7:28am
Dear Mzvega,
I hope it may not make me look foolish to ask such basic question after staying for sometime in the forum. I have seen some people ask me privately may be out of fear of being look foolish like me tor explanation in which I was reluctant to give answers for which I did not master. No matter how much I re-read but I could not work the price time matrix after I downloaded the 4 and 8 day overlays. The Rotation Index is vitally important to show us short term internal trends which goes with the above questions you ask us to answer. There may be some who have similar need for clarifications though they might have spent hours of reading the materials you provide us, who may feel guilty of not understanding like me and afraid to ask. Can you please or any one volunteer explain to us by giving example from 4 and 8 day overlay mealtime perspective the steps before the formula of calculating the RI? Thank you
JP
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  • #1,032
  • Edited 9:42am Dec 30, 2016 9:22am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting mzvega
Can anyone here tell me the rules in locating "Bracket Limits"?

  1. 30 minute TPOs
  2. 1 distribution
  3. a minimum of 4 contiguous prices in the distribution
  4. bracket limits: 3 TPOs cut-off (5-10 days overlay) or 5 TPOs cut-off (15-20 days overlay)
  5. EOD close must be inside the bracket limits

    (to respond to an old post in this thread, this last point is what cause, in bandung indicator, the NOT-BRACKETING message when profile is plotted as bracket and close is outside of the bracket, it's not a bug)

  • #1,033
  • Dec 30, 2016 9:34am Dec 30, 2016 9:34am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Imbalance analysis of what? Market condition? Buyers & sellers? Brackets?
Buyers and sellers, looking at the balance/imbalance above and below the POC, trying to understand if the market is in balance in a starting new bracket.
  • #1,034
  • Dec 30, 2016 10:16am Dec 30, 2016 10:16am
And this is a very nice BO (for now ...)
Has anyone caught the move? I've taken only first 35 pip ... too bad, maybe next time ...
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  • #1,035
  • Dec 30, 2016 10:30am Dec 30, 2016 10:30am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} What are the rules for locating bracket limits? How do you know if a profile is bracketing or not bracketing?
The overlay demand curve (Overlay) is a graphic, a distribution of the same form as Market Profile. Market Profiles give market structure and lactate value for a single day in terms of value area. Overlay do the same for the longer time frame, becoming, in a sense, a super profile. But overlay do something profiles cannot; they define longer-term market condition (i.e., trending, bracketing, or volatile). If the market's condition is bracketing, value can be determined. For trending market, value can be only be inferred (VBPT p. 63).
Reference Points
Overlay of brackets provide three primary reference points, the upper and lower bracket‪ limits and middle of distribution, the center of value in a perfect bell-shaped curve. Secondary reference points are the distribution quadrant and octant prices. These are used to estimate risk of particular trade positioning (VBPT p.64).
The rule for lactating limits is: there must be three or more TPOs for 5- and 10-day Overlays, five TPOs for longer ones. The high value point lies at the peak TPO count. Limits are significant because price movement out of bracket past limit alerts to change of condition, e.g., from bracketing to trending (VBPT p.70).
  • #1,036
  • Dec 30, 2016 11:59am Dec 30, 2016 11:59am
Quoting JPworks
Dear Mzvega, I hope it may not make me look foolish to ask such basic question after staying for sometime in the forum. I have seen some people ask me privately may be out of fear of being look foolish like me tor explanation in which I was reluctant to give answers for which I did not master. No matter how much I re-read but I could not work the price time matrix after I downloaded the 4 and 8 day overlays. The Rotation Index is vitally important to show us short term internal trends which goes with the above questions you ask us to answer. There...
RI is calculated using a price-time matrix
Overlay's are constructed using a price-time matrix.
If you understand how an overlay is constructed, You'll know how to construct/calculate the RI
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,037
  • Dec 30, 2016 3:03pm Dec 30, 2016 3:03pm
Quoting thetail
{quote} 30 minute TPOs 1 distribution a minimum of 4 contiguous prices in the distribution bracket limits: 3 TPOs cut-off (5-10 days overlay) or 5 TPOs cut-off (15-20 days overlay) EOD close must be inside the bracket limits (to respond to an old post in this thread, this last point is what cause, in bandung indicator, the NOT-BRACKETING message when profile is plotted as bracket and close is outside of the bracket, it's not a bug)
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,038
  • Dec 30, 2016 3:14pm Dec 30, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting thetail
And this is a very nice BO (for now ...) Has anyone caught the move? I've taken only first 35 pip ... too bad, maybe next time ... {image}
I chose to pass on that one, there wasn't enough data to support a BO into a new trend (for me).
The beauty of low risk, high potential trades is that you can be wrong in your analysis and still exit the market in profit.
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I did take a similar trade in which I felt there was enough data to support the trade (for me).
Brackets all "look" alike, what makes them uniquely distinguishable from one another is the data.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,039
  • Edited 2:34pm Jan 2, 2017 1:54pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} RI is calculated using a price-time matrix Overlay's are constructed using a price-time matrix. If you understand how an overlay is constructed, You'll know how to construct/calculate the RI
OK. Thanks, Which one do we have to use in our final formula

RI=(NRI-4)/12

NRI=RI-[(1-RI)/0.75x0.25]
  • #1,040
  • Edited 5:10pm Jan 2, 2017 3:57pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting JPworks
{quote} OK. Thanks, Which one do we have to use in our final formula RI=(NRI-4)/12 NRI=RI-[(1-RI)/0.75x0.25]
I find it arrogant that you continue to think that my time is somehow less valuable than yours.

You found the formula, copied it. You didn't think it was worth spending your time to read the words around it.

Instead, since you're under the impression my time is less valuable than yours, I should waste my time going to the same place you copied the formula, read it, and report back to you in a post with the answer.

Are you for real??????

And please dont tell me that it was a simple question, that required a simple answer.

Needless to say, that arrogant attitude would still suggest that since my time is somehow less valuable than yours, I can still afford to waste my time responding to a simple question, that you dont want waste your valuable time reading the answer to..

If you make me go to the same place you copied that formula from and show you the answer, don't expect me to ever respond to any more of you posts.

Look, I am just a trader..you can't expect me to do all the work and thinking for you.

If something's not worth you, spending your own time reading, I can guarantee, it's not worth my time, having to explain it to you instead.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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