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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #3,901
  • Dec 16, 2016 9:49am Dec 16, 2016 9:49am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,902
  • Dec 16, 2016 9:50am Dec 16, 2016 9:50am
Quoting vvFish
Great weekend to everyone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=R...&v=0J2QdDbelmY
You too
  • #3,903
  • Dec 17, 2016 1:25am Dec 17, 2016 1:25am
The Top Events/Releases for next week

1. Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Fed Chair Yellen is due to deliver a speech on the US job market on Monday December 19th at 13:30 EST.
Following the expected interest rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, the main market moving aspect was the increase in interest rate projections by the individual FOMC members with three rate increases expected for 2017 compared with the two expected at the September meeting.
The overall Fed statement was relatively cautious surrounding inflation, but the ‘dot plots’ received all the attention.
Markets will be looking at Yellen’s speech carefully to assess whether she looks to provide greater clarity on 2017 prospects.
The most important aspect of the speech will probably be comments on how close the US economy is to full employment and how much leeway the Fed has to try and push employment gains further without risking overheating in the economy.
Any references to the dollar will also be important for market sentiment.

2. Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
The latest Bank of Japan policy decision is due on Tuesday 20th December. There is no fixed time, but likely to be around 22:00 EST Monday.
Bank Governor Kuroda will hold a press conference following the meeting. Again, there is no fixed time, but is likely to be around 3 hours after the policy decision.
The Bank of Japan faces a very different environment than those seen at the last few policy meetings.
The previous meeting came just ahead of the US Presidential election with USD/JPY trading around 104.00 with US 10-year bond yields around 1.80%.
The yen briefly surged following Trump’s US election victory, but has since declined sharply with USD/JPY trading above 118.00 and there has also been a surge in US yields with the 10-year yield at close to 2.60%.
These currency and yield trends will put a substantially different complexion on this monetary policy decision.
There is likely to be an upward revision to inflation forecasts, especially as oil prices have moved higher and the currency issues will certainly be much less pressing given the dollar’s sharp gains.
The Bank of Japan is committed to keeping long-term bond yields near zero in order to put upward pressure on inflation over the medium term and the bank will continue to buy government bonds in order to meet this objective.
Given the shift in circumstances, there is likely to be some speculation that the bank will look to adjust policy slightly and aim for a slightly higher level of long-term bond yields.
Any commentary on the yen will be watched closely with the bank likely to reinforce the need for underlying stability.

3. US Durable Goods Orders
The latest US durable goods orders data will be released on Thursday December 22nd at 08:30 EST.
Investment spending will remain a crucial US economic factor over the next few months.
The Federal Reserve has been consistently uneasy surrounding capital spending levels in the economy, especially as this has dampened overall growth potential.
The recent durable goods orders data has shown some signs of a tentative improvement and markets will want to see if this evidence is continued.
The data will be for November, which does cover the post-election period, but it is unlikely that there will be a significant impact from the election result given the lags involved before decision making translates into actual spending.
Strong data would reinforce confidence in the US outlook.
The final Q3 US GDP data and jobless claims data will be released at the same time. The existing home sales data is due for release on Wednesday 21st with new home sales data on Friday 23rd.

4. Canada CPI Data
The latest Canadian CPI data will be released on Thursday December 22nd at 08:30 EST.
The Bank of Canada maintained a broadly neutral policy at the December policy meeting. The latest inflation data will be important in setting the underlying tone for the first quarter of 2017.
Canadian inflation has been slightly below the central bank target over the past few months, although the main effect has been from lower food prices, which may not be sustained over the medium term.
Weaker data would tend to push the central bank closer towards a further easing of monetary policy, while stronger than expected data would give the bank a strong incentive to wait for further evidence on domestic and international trends before making any decision to loosen policy further.
Governor Poloz appears slightly more optimistic over the outlook and a firm inflation reading would be likely to rule out a near-term monetary easing.
The retail sales data will be released at the same time with the latest GDP data due for release on Friday.

5. UK Current Account
The latest UK current account data will be released on Friday December 23rd at 04:30 EST.
The current account trends will continue to be watched very closely following the UK referendum vote to leave the EU.
There will also be big questions surrounding the data’s accuracy given that there were very big revisions to previous data.
The UK has persistently run a current account deficit and is, therefore, dependent on investment inflows to support the balance of payments position.
The decision to leave the EU will risk triggering a net deterioration in direct investment flows, especially with an important element of uncertainty surrounding the trade regime, which will be in place.
There will also be the risk that companies will relocate away from the UK, which would also undermine the balance of payments position.
In this environment, the UK will be more dependent on shorter-term and volatile capital inflows, which will also increase the risk that Sterling will weaken in order to attract sufficient capital inflows.
Any widening of the deficit would further erode long-term Sterling sentiment.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,904
  • Dec 17, 2016 1:27am Dec 17, 2016 1:27am
Wednesday
17:30
12/21/16
1 Comments1 New comments
US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Wednesday
23:45
12/21/16
NZ GDP growth HOT!
(NZ GDP), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,905
  • Dec 21, 2016 10:29am Dec 21, 2016 10:29am
Quoting vvFish
Wednesday 17:30 12/21/16 1 Comments1 New comments US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products (US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release. 10% probability trades. Wednesday 23:45 12/21/16 NZ GDP growth HOT! (NZ GDP), New Zealand, NZDUSD Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release. 25% probability trades.
vvfish US Crude Oil Inventories ??? you trade ?
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  • #3,906
  • Dec 21, 2016 12:10pm Dec 21, 2016 12:10pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_75.png Size: 27 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,907
  • Dec 21, 2016 12:33pm Dec 21, 2016 12:33pm
Wednesday
23:45
12/21/16
NZ GDP growth HOT!
(NZ GDP), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

my opinion market go little up but in future go down US Crude Oil Inventories got USD good power.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,908
  • Dec 21, 2016 1:03pm Dec 21, 2016 1:03pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

This year we still delight quarterly report from the New Zealand Central Bank which is now at a crossroads.
Previously, in the past month, the RBNZ cut its interest rate from 2.0% to 1.75%. It was noted that the policy easing is likely finished as inflation takes a speedy recovery. Wheeler (control of the Central Bank) said that New Zealand's economy is one of the fastest growing among the world's developed economies. Let's see ....
Analysts expect to see growth of 0.8% in the third quarter of 2016, and at 3.6% on an annualized ratio. At the same time we have good results quarterly labor market data, published in early November (unemployment rate decreased from 5.1% to 4.9%).
Nevertheless, the publication of the Bank of Australia protocols can indirectly bring doubts and optimism for New Zealand, as the Bank notes the weak structure in the context of partial and full employment. Earlier, Australian GDP data have plunged into recession.
Probably, it is necessary to postpone sleep and not miss the release just in case.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,909
  • Dec 21, 2016 3:47pm Dec 21, 2016 3:47pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_76.png Size: 30 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,910
  • Dec 21, 2016 3:56pm Dec 21, 2016 3:56pm
Thursday
15:30
12/22/16
CA Core CPI
(CA Core CPI), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
12/22/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,911
  • Dec 22, 2016 7:35am Dec 22, 2016 7:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_78.png Size: 31 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,912
  • Dec 22, 2016 10:58am Dec 22, 2016 10:58am
Friday
11:30
12/23/16
GB The final GDP
(GB Final GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
12/23/16
CA GDP growth GOOD
(CA GDP), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,913
  • Dec 23, 2016 7:39am Dec 23, 2016 7:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-12-23 22_35_12-USDCAD,M1.png Size: 14 KB
  • #3,914
  • Dec 23, 2016 8:51am Dec 23, 2016 8:51am
Great weekend to everyone.
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,915
  • Dec 23, 2016 9:03am Dec 23, 2016 9:03am
Anyone got any thoughts on whether to trade any news in late December / early January? or is it too riky that time of year?
  • #3,916
  • Dec 23, 2016 9:57am Dec 23, 2016 9:57am
Quoting DurBil
Anyone got any thoughts on whether to trade any news in late December / early January? or is it too riky that time of year?
All implements are in the new year
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,917
  • Dec 23, 2016 11:11am Dec 23, 2016 11:11am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} All implements are in the new year
Merry christmas for all traders ... vvFish thank you for news and job you done in this discussion , god blees you ...

Inserted Video
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  • #3,918
  • Dec 25, 2016 12:47am Dec 25, 2016 12:47am
Merry christmas to all followers!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,919
  • Dec 26, 2016 1:02am Dec 26, 2016 1:02am
Quoting Gigant
{quote} Merry christmas for all traders ... vvFish thank you for news and job you done in this discussion , god blees you ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8gmARGvPlI
Are you a profit or what?

Next time give us some foresight about the GBP or something.
  • #3,920
  • Dec 30, 2016 3:34pm Dec 30, 2016 3:34pm

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All traders with a Happy New Year !!!
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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