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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,501
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:00pm Dec 19, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting sisse
I see lots of questions and doubts here about CAD. Let's do a simple exercise for those interested. Starting from the micro to the macro lets build the mandatory matrix of reference for a pair. +++CAD MATRIX ++++ CAD = CAD /USD. --> From the CAD side. @Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2 Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. Interest Rates ...what else sisse
Fisher mentioned oil as I agree with. Also I will say USDx is an important factor and in the current setting also US politics ( Nafta , Trump ) But only Nafta can qualify to perhaps be on the CAD side.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,502
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:03pm Dec 19, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting sisse
Ok we have OIL from Fisher755 ...anybody else ...or just lurkers? common jump in you may learn a trick or two... sisse
Something to do with trade deals with the UK?

*edit: or maybe the elections may 27th 2017?
  • #146,503
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:03pm Dec 19, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting glassblower
{quote} risk
Why risk?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,504
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:05pm Dec 19, 2016 2:05pm
OK we have rather complex interrelation with China and macro flows from The Fool

Quoting ExForX
{quote} Something to do with trade deals with the UK? *edit: or maybe the elections may 27th 2017?
Ok got International trade ...

Anything else

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,505
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:05pm Dec 19, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting sisse
I see lots of questions and doubts here about CAD. Let's do a simple exercise for those interested. Starting from the micro to the macro lets build the mandatory matrix of reference for a pair. +++CAD MATRIX ++++ CAD = CAD /USD. --> From the CAD side. @Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2 Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. Interest Rates ...what else sisse
commodity prices [major one is oil]
Trade policy in coutries that import from Canada like China
Tied relation with the US .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,506
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:07pm Dec 19, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} commodity prices [major one is oil] Trade policy in coutries that import from Canada like China Tied relation with the US .
Yeap...thats much better and wrap up the main points...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,507
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:08pm Dec 19, 2016 2:08pm
Maple Syrup. Can't get a chart on that though so I'll say besides the obvious oil, trade with the USA.
  • #146,508
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:09pm Dec 19, 2016 2:09pm
All I got is Oil. That's all I have for main factor in this. I'm just watching and learning here.
  • #146,509
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:11pm Dec 19, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting sisse
...+++CAD MATRIX ++++ ...

+++CAD MATRIX ++++


Ok so. We have in a very basic framework the main CAD elements.

CAD = CAD /USD.

--> From the CAD side.

@Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2

 

  1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy.
  2. Interest Rates
  3. Commodities!!!
  4. International Trade

--> Now from the USD side (this should come automatically in no time as Dollar is the king across the FX board):

--> Macro economic factors
--> Monetary policy (interest rates)
--> ...what else

sisse


sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,510
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:12pm Dec 19, 2016 2:12pm
Trade, growth projections, risk on or off (dollar/us bonds as safe haven or not)
  • #146,511
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:14pm Dec 19, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting sisse
I see lots of questions and doubts here about CAD. Let's do a simple exercise for those interested. Starting from the micro to the macro lets build the mandatory matrix of reference for a pair. +++CAD MATRIX ++++ CAD = CAD /USD. --> From the CAD side. @Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2 Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. Interest Rates ...what else sisse
•Larger macro forces, large portion of profit flows and budget restructoring coming from energy sector, bearish energy bearish implication on CAD
•Macros that are out of control of Canada as whole (whether central bank, corporations, politics etc...) driven largely by outside countries
•Political instability that often comes in dire times lead by above two factors, it is not there yet, but it often comes to fruition (populist politicans etc, make Canada great again...) should be counted ahead once micros start to lay more clear path
•Outside capital squeeze from US rate hikes, Petrodollar trade with strong dollar is bearish for CAD, short term to long term macro
•Strong dollar and further strenght is long term bearish for corporations and retailers with USD debt exposure, leads to domino effect as bad debt cascades, long term macro
•Atrition warfare going across Oil producers, the last man standing is the key long term winner as weak fruits drop of first, the more other weaker Oil producers are ahead in hole the more bullish long term impact on CAD, the more they hold against the oposite effect
•Patterns that are not FA corelated on face value, eg high performant patterns either tech or otherwise signaling possible further downside for CAD
•Short term repos impacting the currency flows and CAD on bearish side if above patterns align, short term macro
•NAFTA deal breaker, if it is actually implemented or not doesnt matter, market is pricing up to certain extent it bearishly on long term scale
•Deception play, USD and Oil are driven from same macro, which leads to same directional target on CAD, long term
•Many more short term macros but those are only derivation of larger macros going along with flow

But who cares about that, when you can sell this property in Vancouver for 1kk?
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  • #146,512
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:14pm Dec 19, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap...thats much better and wrap up the main points... sisse
Something else, would canada's participation in the new asian development bank (aiib) have any significance in 2017?
  • #146,513
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:15pm Dec 19, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} +++CAD MATRIX ++++ Ok so. We have in a very basic framework the main CAD elements. CAD = CAD /USD. --> From the CAD side. @Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2 Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. Interest Rates Commodities!!! International Trade --> Now from the USD side (this should come automatically in no time as Dollar is the king across the FX board): --> Macro economic factors...
- Commodities strenght= inflation?
- Safe heaven- USD hedge instrument for big players?
PVSRA
  • #146,514
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:15pm Dec 19, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting goosebone
Maple Syrup. Can't get a chart on that though so I'll say besides the obvious oil, trade with the USA.
Love the sass.
  • #146,515
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:17pm Dec 19, 2016 2:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why risk? sisse
I mean risk from maybe some of these scenarios:

global financial meltdowns
terrorist attacks canada
OPEC
natural disasters
trade with other countries (NAFTA etc...)
maybe the price of maple syrup futures plummets (lol)
  • #146,516
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:18pm Dec 19, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting goosebone
Maple Syrup. Can't get a chart on that though so I'll say besides the obvious oil, trade with the USA.
just saw this...lol funny!
  • #146,517
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:18pm Dec 19, 2016 2:18pm
USD side , again agree with fishers points here + Risk on off for equity's
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,518
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:21pm Dec 19, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting glassblower
{quote} just saw this...lol funny!
Yeah, we are to focused sometimes. Nice one.
PVSRA
  • #146,519
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:22pm Dec 19, 2016 2:22pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/bu...warehouse.html

The Canucks are sitting on 3/4 of the world's known maple syrup reserves! What are our invasion contingency plans?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,520
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:25pm Dec 19, 2016 2:25pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} If that is the case then i am on you boat as i dont know how to sell usdcad from 1.34 to 1.41☺

this was a nice one too. I had a good laugh. It is nice to have some fun.

Imo sisse confused us all with "down to 1.41XX". We should all turn our screens upside down for the holidays.
PVSRA
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