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  • #146,481
  • Dec 19, 2016 12:57pm Dec 19, 2016 12:57pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} UCAD. @1.34 now.
Yes and outlook change to sell from neutral. I just dont understand how 1.41 come in to the picture.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,482
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:00pm Dec 19, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Yes and outlook change to sell from neutral. I just dont understand how 1.41 come in to the picture.
Isnt selling cad equals buying usdcad.??
  • #146,483
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:06pm Dec 19, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Isnt selling cad equals buying usdcad.??
Was there anything significant in yellen's speech. Does anybody know??
  • #146,484
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:11pm Dec 19, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Isnt selling cad equals buying usdcad.??
No, then it should have been cad*

Quoting sisse
{quote} yes obviously...yen as in UJ...same 'typo' I made every time I refer to UJ. For now on lets all use a new convention in the thread: Euro = Eur/usd Euro* = Euro single currency GBP = GBP/USD GBP* = Sterling as single currency. etc etc* that will make things very clear... sisse
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,485
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:11pm Dec 19, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Yes and outlook change to sell from neutral. I just dont understand how 1.41 come in to the picture.
Weekly bullish- 1.41 is what Sisse ment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADiWeekly.png Size: 45 KB
PVSRA
  • #146,486
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:13pm Dec 19, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} If not EM currencies then perhaps even better play is trough BTC.
I usually stick to the US exchange traded equity options, was looking at some of the largest names for bearish spreads out into the next earnings season and beyond - like BIDU, BABA, LFC, CHL, etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,487
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:13pm Dec 19, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} The GLOBAL effects might begin this week or even today. It depends on Russia reaction: 1- Hawkish reaction against Turkey? how this could be translated into market reaction beside hammering Turkish Lira? 2- Hawkish reaction against civilian in Syria and Alep? 2017 has plenty of dark events and effects! So Gold becomes the only refuge for investors.
If that was true then Erdogan wouldnt be urging public to liquidate US dollars, but instead selling off gold to prevent inflation. When capital controls and inflationary crisis hits people go first into most liquid assets. Turkey- Russian relation was set bearish since years ago as its lead by large macro, those micro pubble events are not changing any flows, just adding a bit to it. Macro is leading path for 2017 and beyond. There is part of Turkish goverment trying hard to re-establish good relation with Russia and back its country on that connection but they go against much more powerful macro that is driving Turkey into Syrian war and by default draging it into conflict with Russia. Pipeline set to be build is like a vein of massive wealth to be created for those who position on correct side where Turkey and Russia are on oposite scales of interest, its like putting + and + magnets together. Erdogan either plays into it, or he is going to become Castro where he will be watching his back for whole of his life, but the market will price that onto bearish side.
  • #146,488
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:22pm Dec 19, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} No, then it should have been cad* {quote}
If that is the case then i am on you boat as i dont know how to sell usdcad from 1.34 to 1.41☺
  • #146,489
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:24pm Dec 19, 2016 1:24pm
I read it as change USD/CAD from neutral to sell. Losing 1.34xx (meaning <1.33xx) for year close locks levels higher than 1.41xx on USD/CAD.
  • #146,490
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:25pm Dec 19, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting sisse
Second important update today: --> Changing back mid term outlook in CAD back from neutral to SELL. CAD losing the 1.34xx handle for the year will set a very hard long term top and lock levels all the way down to the 1.41xx handle for 2017. sisse
Quoting Earleone
{quote} A little bit lost here. But if it is 1.14xx handle I understand. If 1.41xx I am lost in translation I think.
By CAD he means USDCAD , and by CAD* he means the single currency canadian dollar ...that being explained in this thread for reference.

He means CAD [USDCAD / loonie ] losing 1.34xx for the year close is a confirmation for a bearish long term outlook and levels all the way UP [not down as he wrote] to 1.41xx handle should be locked for next year .

I hope it explains it , I could be wrong but is not likely
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,491
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:26pm Dec 19, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Weekly bullish- 1.41 is what Sisse ment. {image}
With buy outlook for oil ? I am not sure about that. Maybe NAFTA and USDx is weigthing stronger and I lost something here. Also a change to buy outlook USDCAD wich in this case is cad ( he did not write cad* ) before the handle is taken out ( a close above) is strange. Well, We will see.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,492
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:28pm Dec 19, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} {quote} By CAD he means USDCAD , and by CAD* he means the single currency canadian dollar ...that being explained in this thread for reference. He means CAD [USDCAD / loonie ] losing 1.34xx for the year close is a confirmation for a bearish long term outlook and levels all the way UP [not down as he wrote] to 1.41xx handle should be locked for next year . I hope it explains it , I could be wrong but is not likely
Ding!Ding!Ding!
For hoom the bell tolls.
  • #146,493
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:31pm Dec 19, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} appr. 50% correction 168->159->163,50 and fundamentals growing stronger by the day
Got it ...

Quoting Earleone
{quote} A little bit lost here. But if it is 1.14xx handle I understand. If 1.41xx I am lost in translation I think.
Mid term mate ... @hoom [& Fisher755 not sure if you also meant this] got it spot on. " He means CAD [USDCAD / loonie ] losing 1.34xx for the year close is a confirmation for a bearish long term outlook and levels all the way UP [not down as he wrote] to 1.41xx handle should be locked for next year ."

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,494
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:40pm Dec 19, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Got it ... {quote} Mid term mate ... @hoom [& Fisher755 not sure if you also meant this] got it spot on. " He means CAD [USDCAD / loonie ] losing 1.34xx for the year close is a confirmation for a bearish long term outlook and levels all the way UP [not down as he wrote] to 1.41xx handle should be locked for next year ." sisse
Yes, I mixed also short and mid term here. Then it is clear .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,495
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:42pm Dec 19, 2016 1:42pm
I see lots of questions and doubts here about CAD.

Let's do a simple exercise for those interested. Starting from the micro to the macro lets build the mandatory matrix of reference for a pair.


+++CAD MATRIX ++++


CAD = CAD /USD.

--> From the CAD side.

@Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2

 

  1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy.
  2. Interest Rates
  3. ...what else

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,496
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:43pm Dec 19, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} With buy outlook for oil ? I am not sure about that. Maybe NAFTA and USDx is weigthing stronger and I lost something here. Also a change to buy outlook USDCAD wich in this case is cad ( he did not write cad* ) before the handle is taken out ( a close above) is strange. Well, We will see.
It definitly looks like close above today and no top of current swing in sight yet...mkt is always right.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADiDaily.png Size: 50 KB


Quoting sisse
I see lots of questions and doubts here about CAD. Let's do a simple exercise for those interested. Starting from the micro to the macro lets build the mandatory matrix of reference for a pair. +++CAD MATRIX ++++ CAD = CAD /USD. --> From the CAD side. @Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2 Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. Interest Rates ...what else sisse
Nice one...
Oil is confuusing factor here...bullish Outlook oil should mean buy *Cad. But short term I would say that USD forces do prevail here . For now. So it looks at least on the chart.
PVSRA
  • #146,497
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:57pm Dec 19, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting sisse
What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2 Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. Interest Rates ...what else sisse
I hear they have built quite a RE bubble up there; that is tied to CNY flight out of China in a significant way. Of course, the loonie swings with the crude market, but that's not the whole story....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,498
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:57pm Dec 19, 2016 1:57pm
Ok we have OIL from Fisher755 ...anybody else ...or just lurkers? common jump in you may learn a trick or two...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,499
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:59pm Dec 19, 2016 1:59pm
Quoting sisse
I see lots of questions and doubts here about CAD. Let's do a simple exercise for those interested. Starting from the micro to the macro lets build the mandatory matrix of reference for a pair. +++CAD MATRIX ++++ CAD = CAD /USD. --> From the CAD side. @Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD?? i will put the first 2 Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. Interest Rates ...what else sisse
risk
  • #146,500
  • Dec 19, 2016 2:00pm Dec 19, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting sisse
Ok we have OIL from Fisher755 ...anybody else ...or just lurkers? common jump in you may learn a trick or two... sisse
agree with oil also
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