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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,381
  • Dec 14, 2016 9:03pm Dec 14, 2016 9:03pm
Hi All,
I was trying to catch up with the reading, great to have the outlook file, but does SS mean soft sell or strong sell? Sorry I searched for explanation on the legend but could not find...
Thanks in advance
  • #146,382
  • Edited 9:55pm Dec 14, 2016 9:44pm | Edited 9:55pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} a short squeeze to 1.087x doesn't count in your view !! {quote} Fed expect inflation to rise to 2% over next couple of years Fed officials see moderate growth in next few years Inflation expectations remain reasonably low We expect jobs conditions will improve somewhat further Broader measures of labor market slack have moved lower "Overall, these economic projects are very similar to the ones made in September" Fed funds rate is only modestly below neutral rate
kinda expected that squeeze. the years close acted as R. now at mid month bears need to take the low out. it wouldn't be a good sign to close 2016 above last years close.
i structure wise would like to see 1.108, even with a new fresh LL below 1.046x.. best shot pressure wise before 1.0334. fundis and most print say i am full of shit. now if bears cant make a LL they still hold thee door open for 1.2xxx..

admittedly i am long. 1.047ish is a level i have for a deeper target .8 or .77.. i do target lower. but near 047 + 200 or so.. i prefer to remain long toward 1.1xx or 1.2xx.. it has stopped it in the past and may be support for a fresh bounce before next deeper low attempt. i prefer to short higher 1.108 or 1.247. a new low takes my stops
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #146,383
  • Dec 14, 2016 9:47pm Dec 14, 2016 9:47pm
Quoting piupiu
Regardless of all the tricks Thanks Yelen, you're a machine to tamper on the candlestcicks. {image}
usd still strong
onorebate
  • #146,384
  • Dec 15, 2016 1:15am Dec 15, 2016 1:15am
short closed @ 1.0490 area 171 pips.
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #146,385
  • Dec 15, 2016 1:25am Dec 15, 2016 1:25am
Quoting sisse
. Now lets start wrapping. Lets take this map as given ( the proper flow and risk management is more important than the exact levels as only a sucker will trade them blindly before a news report)....
1.046x tested overnight ...I hope there are plenty of happy faces in the thread...

.....==> 1.097x (Strong R) ==> ...1.084x (Strong R) ...==>1.065x (Flip)[check].... ==>... 1.046x [check] (Soft S) ....==>(.1.037x Support)

No further comments need so far. Tracking the European open.

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
For the sake of sounding ignorant.... .... Trust me I am and ready to TP even though I am looking for .046x first. I see the possibility of this close meaning not much in Lieu of rebalancing. I've been here before where I could have taken profit and rebalancing sent price higher against my short.
This is the last time I will hold you hand and walk you through because you were the one that opened this discussion at the very top of the mid term swing (right before we changed outlook to sell).

You have struggle every single time Euro has stop to take a breather. As if you didn't know that markets don't move in straight lines. You have sweat, complain, whine and get your brain full of doubts every time the normal flows have taken place.

All has been always in front of your eyes but your perspective during consolidations periods blur your analysis which is usually correct and has improve dramatically in the last 6 months.

Now that we have completed pretty much all the core of the midterm flow. A chart that doesn't need explanations.

--> This is the first chart [more like a sketch for reference] I posted in our discussion. Before even Euro changed outlook to Sell.

Bookmark this. Read, reread, digest. point by point we have [check]. Check your backpost and doubts on each stage ... no need for me to say anything else. You will know where are your inner demons.

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--> This is the actual real case.

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Perspective perspective perspective ....your are letting your inner demons blur you analysis...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,386
  • Dec 15, 2016 3:24am Dec 15, 2016 3:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.046x tested overnight ...I hope there are plenty of happy faces in the thread... .....==> 1.097x (Strong R) ==> ...1.084x (Strong R) ...==>1.065x (Flip)[check].... ==>... 1.046x [check] (Soft S) ....==>(.1.037x Support) No further comments need so far.Perspective perspective perspective ....your are letting your inner demons blur you analysis... sisse
Very nice

I think many of us struggling with the inner demons .
We have been discussing a lot about TA and FA and for the followers here I think most has seen the light. But with your experience Sisse it would be very interesting to get more advices for the trading psycholog. Leverage has been discussed and is IMO one of the important things to help taking care about the inner demons.

Trading psychology is also one of the very important parts in trading. At least at this level of trading where you have been showing us the light.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,387
  • Dec 15, 2016 3:38am Dec 15, 2016 3:38am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Bonds already on head move on EMs, on currency board setting some solid double bottoms and opening possible swipes next days with breaks. Not sure what to think about Bunds. Tbills and 10y inline to projections. Dots overshoot should be most important for large macro flows on EMs, on US equities i see a bit mixed view, anyone with clear view for equities feel free to add deeper view.
And going into 2017/18 with significant risk on play from EM spillover (EU negative, US capital inflow positive). Bonds crashing hard as expected, short term repos hitting new significant highs. Short-micro term bottoms delivered targets over night, and gold swiping 1156 as pointed before. Long term on dollar nothing has changed, still large projected target 10-15%, short term patterns currently pointing to likely direct up leg extension backed by current flows.
  • #146,388
  • Dec 15, 2016 4:27am Dec 15, 2016 4:27am
With a EURUSD low of 1.0468x, which expectations are lined up at the moment? ECB delivered (expectation turned into fact), FED delivered (expectation turned into fact). Seeing how the big money doesn't trade facts but expectations, I'm wondering (short and mid term) which expectations justify a SELL outlook. Haven't we already reached extreme limits? I don't see EURUSD going to 1.02x.

Maybe I'm too close to the market at the moment? I'm trying though... I'm looking at the weekly charts and all I'm seeing is a double/tripple-ish bottom. When I zoom out even more, to monthly, I have to scroll waaaay back (1996 - 2002) to see some structural patterns to align future levels with. Maybe today at US open we could have a break of the bottom, but if that doesn't happen, are we setting up for a chopzone or reversal as per Gator's analysis? I'm currently leaning towards his analysis at the moment.
  • #146,389
  • Dec 15, 2016 4:36am Dec 15, 2016 4:36am
Quoting ExForX
With a EURUSD low of 1.0468x, which expectations are lined up at the moment? ECB delivered (expectation turned into fact), FED delivered (expectation turned into fact). Seeing how the big money doesn't trade facts but expectations, I'm wondering (short and mid term) which expectations justify a SELL outlook. Haven't we already reached extreme limits? I don't see EURUSD going to 1.02x. Maybe I'm too close to the market at the moment? I'm trying though... I'm looking at the weekly charts and all I'm seeing is a double/tripple-ish bottom. When...
But its not one fact and the game is over. Its a composition of differently strong facts and next coming. We have CPI + GDP + PCE (on US side) coming all to translate into price and hikes path. Plus the FED flow not finished yet. I dont think the air is clear of fundamental factors and it never is - if there is chop its just because of condtradictory forces.

And just a remark - im not sure if we see the same thing and we of course can have absolutely different TA perspectives but calling this structer a tripple bottom (and by that calling one short term swing up as minimum) is absolutely insane in my view. There is absolutely NO OFFENSE in the comment. Just for me its too crazy
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  • #146,390
  • Edited 5:08am Dec 15, 2016 4:38am | Edited 5:08am
Quoting ExForX
With a EURUSD low of 1.0468x, which expectations are lined up at the moment? ECB delivered (expectation turned into fact), FED delivered (expectation turned into fact). Seeing how the big money doesn't trade facts but expectations, I'm wondering (short and mid term) which expectations justify a SELL outlook. Haven't we already reached extreme limits? I don't see EURUSD going to 1.02x. Maybe I'm too close to the market at the moment? I'm trying though... I'm looking at the weekly charts and all I'm seeing is a double/tripple-ish bottom. When I zoom...
Sell outlook. Will not look for longs with ST sell outlook. We will be right until we are wrong. And for this down trend many has seen bottom at different support levels ( including me ) and has been wrong every time so far. Once it will be right . Top / Bottom picking is difficult. At least I will see a strong kneejerk before considering trying to outsmart the market again with longs again from possible bottom. When trend turn for reel we will get many signs ( have not seen any other than support level TA ) Retracements we will have all the way. But it is what it is just retracements. I dont see any strong reason to try to pick the bottom now. Wait for a handle above to be taken out bullish and then if also FA support for it we will change outlook to neutral or buy ST. Then it can be reason to look longs. Not now. ( If you try you will possible get some pips by scalping. ) Better to try to catch the top for retracement when that comes .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,391
  • Dec 15, 2016 4:52am Dec 15, 2016 4:52am
Quoting IMARICH1
For the sake of sounding ignorant.... we rolled in EU BELOW .056x or sisse .058x for Flip area and Bearish close. But no break no shake with rebalancing , and digesting dots and macro view with a hawkish minutes but a complacent Yellen means what? We can't seem to break this bottom yet with this news and I am more inclined to TP and see if rebalancing moves price up for the ability to scale in. My pants are down to my knees for a lashing. But would like to understand this and what it means to track closely. Trust me I am and ready to TP even though...
Hi IMARICH1 nice to meet you,
maybe you're looking at mid term schedule on a very low timeframe and that amplifies noise. When noise is amplified, the original signal is lost or becomes distorted.
Don't mean to interfere, this happens to me sometimes
  • #146,392
  • Edited 5:33am Dec 15, 2016 5:20am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting chester123
{quote} But its not one fact and the game is over. Its a composition of differently strong facts and next coming. We have CPI + GDP + PCE (on US side) coming all to translate into price and hikes path. Plus the FED flow not finished yet. I dont think the air is clear of fundamental factors and it never is - if there is chop its just because of condtradictory forces. And just a remark - im not sure if we see the same thing and we of course can have absolutely different TA perspectives but calling this structer a tripple bottom (and by that calling...
No offense taken, Chester! Rather the contrary, thanks for your response. I see what you're saying about the fed flow not being finished yet. About the bottom... not changing my mind here. I'd rather say double than tripple bottom though, but with some imagination the middle swing low could count as a bottom but I put +- beneath it.

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Now with the end of the year coming, liquidity will start to decrease and any news that doesn't align with the current facts will possibly cause some spikes of unexpected magnitude. Stoplosses will get triggered and the snowball might get quite big.

Quoting Earleone
{quote} Sell outlook. Will not look for longs with ST sell outlook. We will be right until we are wrong. And for this down trend many has seen bottom at different support levels ( including me ) and has been wrong every time so far. Once it will be right . Top / Bottom picking is difficult. At least I will see a strong kneejerk before considering trying to outsmart the market again with longs again from possible bottom. When trend turn for reel we will get many signs ( have not seen any other than support level TA ) Retracements we will have all the way. But it is what it is just retracements. I dont see any strong reason to try to pick the bottom now. Wait for a handle above to be taken out bullish and then if also FA support for it we will change outlook to neutral or buy ST. Then it can be reason to look longs. Not now. ( If you try you will possible get some pips by scalping. ) Better to try to catch the top for retracement when that comes .
Yeah I'm not trying to bottom pick or anything, end of the year is always difficult for me. It's purely technical that I see a support zone, I guess I'm looking for fundamental ideas that might align with this but probably it's just not there. I think because of changing conditions around the holidays that moves become less obvious because of increased noise. That's why I don't rule out the idea of the bottom zone being an issue in the short term. Some unexpected news might give us a WTF moment. It happens all the time.

*edit: I'm not advocating taking longs by the way but I would personally not add to my shorts and take a good chunk of profit before going in the end of year before it all gets wiped out. At the moment I'm flat.
  • #146,393
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:24am Dec 15, 2016 5:24am
Short stopover for the BOE before NY opens on the 'day after'.

Only one thing to track for today: Inflation.

--> UK inflation expectations at 2 years high but we are setting to a major overshoot in the next few months as the average Brexiters start paying the toll in their real wages of the social experiment that now the Government is recognising will take over 10 years (no shit) to get a full deal if the y leave the EU...

--> BOE in a very tricky position as we have been discussing for a while. The economy is expected to have a sharp downturn in 2017 especially after Article 50 and most markets (almost all) expect BOE to pull the trigger (QE) in a fresh bazooka at least one more time next year.

--> On the other hand, the capitulation of Sterling* after the vote is already cracking deep inside of the economy via inflation. Expectations are split in 50/50 between hikes to avoid spiral inflation and cuts to avoid a hard blow from the Brexit front.

--> If you want to choose the textbook definition of a cluster fck policy wise is in the BOE and on top with a aggressive populist government trying to interfere politically with the independence of the Central Bank. Wouldn't want to be in Carney's shoes that would probably get the 'traditional' best CB of year award when we wrap up the year next week ...

Eyes on the UK briefly before NY takes full control.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,394
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:27am Dec 15, 2016 5:27am
...and 'boom goes the dynamite' .... 14 years old low taken in the Euro right on time before NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,395
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:33am Dec 15, 2016 5:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} kinda expected that squeeze. the years close acted as R. now at mid month bears need to take the low out. it wouldn't be a good sign to close 2016 above last years close. i structure wise would like to see 1.108, even with a new fresh LL below 1.046x.. best shot pressure wise before 1.0334. fundis and most print say i am full of shit. now if bears cant make a LL they still hold thee door open for 1.2xxx.. admittedly i am long. 1.047ish is a level i have for a deeper target .8 or .77.. i do target lower. but near 047 + 200 or so.. i prefer...
i was stopped out of long 1.0455 LL. neither long or short atm. maybe i will short again after 1.108, if it gets there again before 1.0334. 1.2470 got voided on this LL
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #146,396
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:36am Dec 15, 2016 5:36am
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Re-Incarnated
  • #146,397
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:38am Dec 15, 2016 5:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was stopped out of long 10455 LL. neither long or short atm. maybe i will short again after 1.108, if it gets there again before 1.0334. 1.2470 got voided on this LL
I didn't want to reply to your posts before because I always respect your TA views.

I would say pretty much always I understand what are you looking and trading. Moreover, most of the time I agree and are align with your view. However, this time I really didn't understand what were you looking with 1.20xx before this low was taken. Well happens to all, cost of doing business I guess.

In any case, as you clearly pointed out, wherever is the end of the move, low is taken now so no discussion TA wise any longer.

2 Thumbs up for coming and posting live the failure. Respect.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,398
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:43am Dec 15, 2016 5:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I didn't want to reply to your posts before because I always respect your TA views. I would say pretty much always I understand what are you looking and trading. Moreover, most of the time I agree and are align with your view. However, this time I really didn't understand what were you looking with 1.20xx before this low was taken. Well happens to all, cost of doing business I guess. In any case, as you clearly pointed out, wherever is the end of the move, low is taken now so no discussion TA wise any longer. 2 Thumbs up for coming and posting...
This is the only reason why only two threads are the most followed thread in FF...

Respect always comes first ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,399
  • Edited 6:28am Dec 15, 2016 5:56am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting janpec1000
Past symetrical patterns tend to perform symetrical again in nearby future more often than not. Just a heads up. Most likely we are heading with this one into FED. In either case Weekly and Monthly have both already path set on most likely outcome. It just need prints of facts of higher macros and perhaps technical floop on meeting would add fuel to fire. In either case micros are the key to position in those flows. {image} The one to track on possible expansion of bearish leg is also gold, currently already unlocked the test of key mid term...
In the hands of probabilities aligned with micro entry. 456 cleared now, watching micros for possible strong squeeze and flip (altough not aligned with any macros), but if happens ill be scaling out short position. Dollar short term extended leg now completed with UCHF 0320 so flat/neutral on short term view, just tracking EU on possible short term changes.
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EA cross just ticking bellow flag support opening further likely fall.

On Oil side no surprises, Iran already flogging into supply increase, same game, rinse and repeat.
  • #146,400
  • Dec 15, 2016 6:38am Dec 15, 2016 6:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I didn't want to reply to your posts before because I always respect your TA views. I would say pretty much always I understand what are you looking and trading. Moreover, most of the time I agree and are align with your view. However, this time I really didn't understand what were you looking with 1.20xx before this low was taken. Well happens to all, cost of doing business I guess. In any case, as you clearly pointed out, wherever is the end of the move, low is taken now so no discussion TA wise any longer. 2 Thumbs up for coming and posting...
fallen knife atm. above 0334 i dont trust bears power to deepen this st. above 0334 i am looking to short after 1.108. not a prediction. just more a thought. an ideal time to screw the most is after a new high or low is set.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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