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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,361
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:55pm Dec 14, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}yes it's a real dogturd, strictly for options spread trading, and in that vein strickly for trapping major volatility events. I set up a bunch of UVXY call spreads for the FOMC/Electoral College combo, this week and next.....will likely lose money on all of those unless we get a multi-day dip. Anyway, yes: never buy UVXY or VXX shares.
Call options. Bad idea. I know it ain't clockwork but vix up 4ish and uvxy down 4ish? Lesson learned. Time to learn spreads or stop messing with options. I thought i was smarter than everyone else I guess.
  • #146,362
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:09pm Dec 14, 2016 1:09pm
Regardless of all the tricks
Thanks Yelen, you're a machine to tamper on the candlestcicks.
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  • #146,363
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:11pm Dec 14, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting goosebone
Call options. Bad idea.
there's a place for just going long calls or puts in options.....if you have some solid conviction on a directional move in something, well, go for it, as long as that trade is set up fully within your risk management scheme. I have just learned that it's better to trade spreads. Usually I do UVXY call spreads around $10/contract - that's 10c per share of the underlying. Typically flys or verticals. defined risk, no margin hit, if they expire worthless I'm just out the original debit. So, typically risking 10c to make $1.00 or more, only in specific scenarios, trying to catch a general volatility pop around a specific event or set of events......not a trade for novices but easy enough to do.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,364
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:22pm Dec 14, 2016 1:22pm
A rather neutral conference with some cryptic details (on the fiscal front) that will leave some room for interpretation in the upcoming days when dots and projections are properly digested.

A very simple and direct flows so far. Te main and major highlight is in the bond markets. 2yrs rate differntials between US and Germany ticking at historical wide levels on the close.

On the rest on the board no surprise and we are set for irrelevant closes across the board outside bond markets.

Real money will start coming back to the market from Asia session but especially tomorrow US open when the reports are properly digested and to start the final rebalancing portfolos for year's end at the weekly close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,365
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:43pm Dec 14, 2016 1:43pm
First update from the FED:

--> Changing mid term outlook in Gold from Buy to Neutral.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,366
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:46pm Dec 14, 2016 1:46pm
Second important update form the FED:

--> Changing mid term Outlook in Oil from Neutral to Soft Buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,367
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:50pm Dec 14, 2016 1:50pm
Third outlook from the FED on the FX board.

--> Changing short and mid term outlook in CAD from buy to Neutral

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,368
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:53pm Dec 14, 2016 1:53pm
Fourth update from FED very important one:

--> Confirming mid term outlook in Dollar in Buy.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,369
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:56pm Dec 14, 2016 1:56pm
Fifth update from the FED key one for what is about to come next year in US equities:

---> Changing mid term outlook in financial (bank) stocks from neutral to buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,370
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:58pm Dec 14, 2016 1:58pm
and finally and the most important one today:

--> Changing mid term outlook in US equities from Buy to Neutral.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,371
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:02pm Dec 14, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting sisse
Real money will start coming back to the market from Asia session but especially tomorrow US open when the reports are properly digested and to start the final rebalancing portfolos for year's end at the weekly close. sisse
...looking for a longdong red spoos weekly candle....FANG pointed the way today, any equity sell-off will just be a btfd gift, unless we see differently tomorrow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,372
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:07pm Dec 14, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...looking for a longdong red spoos weekly candle....FANG pointed the way today, any equity sell-off will just be a btfd gift, unless we see differently tomorrow....
Boat is full. We are still flood with good news. Today outlook is positive for the economy. No changes in short term yet. We will see rebalancing in the next few days for years end. Rates will just put the hand breaks in the mid term until Trump roll the dice.

Eyeballing post-inaguration to kick start the real mover and shakers for 2017 in equities...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,373
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:11pm Dec 14, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting sisse
Boat is full.
what's your cap for the S&P by year-end? I still want 2,300 & think we will see that but I need a little pullback first. We agree the real money will be made when the honeymoon is over....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,374
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:14pm Dec 14, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}what's your cap for the S&P by year-end? I still want 2,300 & think we will see that but I need a little pullback first. We agree the real money will be made when the honeymoon is over....
Sound about right around there.

DJ should tick 20000 just for the sake of the headline. On the S&P we are trading air and magic lines. 2345.xx is the random level but 2300 will definitively do it. No interested in calling the ultimate high so that round level will make me have enough ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,375
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:23pm Dec 14, 2016 2:23pm
...and we rolled with Euro in a bearish close but like always: no break, no shake, no nothing....

I hope some of the earlier posters are tracking and trading closely whats is going on ...Plenty of data and info to digest....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,376
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:32pm Dec 14, 2016 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled with Euro in a bearish close but like always: no break, no shake, no nothing....I hope some of the earlier posters are tracking and trading closely whats is going on ...Plenty of data and info to digest.... sisse
Of course! Just cannot post so much right now (temporary school and job reason) - thats why I posted my map earlier. But Im tracking the discussion as much as I can. Thank you for the input and thanks to the rest as well will post some comment tomorrow hopefully.
  • #146,377
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:51pm Dec 14, 2016 2:51pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled with Euro in a bearish close but like always: no break, no shake, no nothing....
Considering the news we've got I'm assuming the short term outlook in euro remains sell. But I must admit that after having, for about 2 weeks, the false impression that we were in neutral I keep wondering why still no break, no shake, no nothing? Is the 1.061x FA support still relevant? Could it hold the monthly/yearly close?
  • #146,378
  • Dec 14, 2016 3:51pm Dec 14, 2016 3:51pm
For the sake of sounding ignorant....

we rolled in EU BELOW .056x or sisse .058x for Flip area and Bearish close. But no break no shake with rebalancing , and digesting dots and macro view with a hawkish minutes but a complacent Yellen means what?

We can't seem to break this bottom yet with this news and I am more inclined to TP and see if rebalancing moves price up for the ability to scale in.

My pants are down to my knees for a lashing. But would like to understand this and what it means to track closely. Trust me I am and ready to TP even though I am looking for .046x first. I see the possibility of this close meaning not much in Lieu of rebalancing. I've been here before where I could have taken profit and rebalancing sent price higher against my short.
  • #146,379
  • Edited 5:52pm Dec 14, 2016 4:01pm | Edited 5:52pm
Well on EU it looks like price dipped it's toe in the 1.04 handle. I imagine we will see a test of the low and find out if there's buying interest down there or not. My guess is if so it would turn out be a similar bump to the one up to 1.08 rather than a major reversal of some sort but watching bonds ( and equities as well) should help figure out how things are aligning for that point and beyond. So far to me it looks ripe for the taking without much of a fight but I don't know I've got the experience to tell the difference between a short term reaction in bonds (if there is such a thing) from a long term one. I suppose today's move in yields really just reinforces the larger trend (reversal) so perhaps I shouldn't be focusing on this small part of that bigger picture. Nothing for me to do at these levels but watch and learn.

And if imarich1 keeps up the kinky talk I'm out of here.
  • #146,380
  • Edited 5:50pm Dec 14, 2016 4:12pm | Edited 5:50pm
Thanks for your comments goosebone which that handle of yours is in and of itself leaves a lot to the imagination with reference to my references.lol

Nevertheless, there is a diff between dipping ones toes in and going skinny dipping. I have been WHINNING and dinning this EU to no avail. I have been passive, aggressive,patient and understanding and can't get EU to just take it off and enjoy the tranquil waters.

Therefore, I am in myself and just going to enjoy it. Perhaps, EU will join me at some point. Waited an entire year and lost and won. Almost a love hate relationship. But, I'm waiting still!
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