News trading discussion - continuation

Thursday
14:45
12/8/16
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Thursday
15:30
12/8/16
US weekly jobless report
(US Unemployment Claims), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
12/8/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Friday
9:00
12/9/16
NO The core consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Great weekend to everyone.

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Thoughts on "smart traders"

Battle of the Week: Mario Draghi vs EUR
European Central Bank expected to leave interest rates unchanged (and you know that the Central Bank is actually three different interest rates?), But managed to bring rustling in the spike 80 points, and the collapse of EURUSD at 200 ...
A week passed, roughly, something like that ...

Italy, and it failed, and failed referendum (all left as is): Italians voted against the reform of the constitutional system, the reform that offers premier Renzi. Following a vote, he resigned, as promised, but the president asked Renzi to serve as acting prime minister at the time, while consultations with the parties about the formation of the cabinet.

Behind the scenes in Austria's new president.

Negotiations on Brexit between Britain and the EU will start no later than March 2017, as the day before the British Parliament voted the same, and said his "yes" to the process.

From New Zealand, heard a new twist on monetary policy: on speculation rising inflation, the RBNZ may change the vector in the direction of higher interest rates, although the Wheeler said this week about the relevance it poses risks. In any case, any confusion we only benefit. Recall that in 2016, the Bank reduced the interest rate three times from 2.25% to 1.75% which is a historical minimum. Until last week, markets were ready rather talk about reducing rates than vice versa.

Fed officials alternately pointed out that the new incentives from the US government is likely to take more and more interest rate hikes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged, which is not surprising on the eve of the Fed meeting (next week). At the same time we got the terrible details of the Australian GDP of the third quarter of 2016: -0.5% as a result of the outflow during the quarter variation forecast from -0.1% to + 0.2% growth.

The most noisy, as expected this week turned out to be Mario Draghi. ECB left all three interest rates unchanged:
- Deposit rate -0.4%
- Refinancing rate 0%
- Marginal lending 0.25%
The refinancing rate, italics, of course, is the key.

At the same time, the primary information regarding the incentive program was perceived aggressive QE, since the protocol was a controversial line on the one hand incentive program has been extended, but its scope has been reduced, that excited the bulls. The primary impetus was the mirage tapering - stimulate contraction.

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But the market changed his mind, and after 45 minutes Mario Draghi said "folding program was not discussed", and rushed ...

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Already next week a meeting of the FOMC. Perhaps, the environment will be a key day, not only the coming week, but also a key day for trade in 2017, because we have a "new Trump" and variations on the theme of the future of fiscal and budgetary policy of the US Fed will need to adapt accordingly. One increase now is not enough interest in the year ...

In addition to the environment and the Fed, also pay attention to the SE Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, US Core retail sales environment, AU number of the employed, NO interest rate and GB Retail Sales on Thursday, and on the same day at a meeting of the Bank of England.

Tuesday
10:30
12/13/16
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Tuesday
11:30
12/13/16
GB CPI GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Tuesday
11:30
12/13/16
GB CPI GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

analysis

ON

Attachment

Wednesday
15:30
12/14/16
US Core Retail Sales
(US Core Retail Sales), USA, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Be careful, because liquidity can migrate in the evening, at the time of the FOMC meeting the US Federal Reserve.

Wednesday
17:30
12/14/16
US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
21:00
12/14/16
US interest rate CRITICAL
(US Federal Funds Rate), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Somehow we have already recalled that in 2015 (abstracting from external factors), was about the same in terms of regulation FOMC interest rate as the sixteenth - the interest rate was increased only once, in December. What is actually happening now ...

December 16, 2015, the interest rate the Fed has been expanded from 0.25% to 0.5%, which was the first increase in interest rates in 12 years, while, at the level of 0.25% rate stayed 7 years. As the market has reacted in the past year?

Actually, nothing. 20-30 points on tongue movement uncertain, and why the property market to react to the fact of coincidence with the forecast, the market is sure to 90% in the same projections.

Now the market is much more confident that the range of interest rate FOMC will expand to 0.75%. The probability of increasing the interest rate is 96% according to the CME Group.

The signal should not be expected, because the likelihood of the news on the forecast level of 96%, but is it worth waiting for the motion?

Configure the motion is quite real, because now we are a little different from 2015go December: we have Trump, we have a strong labor market, there is inflation in the norm - it is logical that the bidders will be wondering: how often, how much, and how quickly the Fed will raise interest rates in 2017? How quickly they start to continue tightening monetary policy?

At the moment, there is a 15% chance of a subsequent first increase FOMC rate in March 2017 to 1% range.

What can we do?

We will continue to monitor the market before the publication of the interest rate, but major changes are not expected. This event is a series of weighty, but if you do not keep track of Janet Yellen and her press conference, it is best to relax, take the popcorn and enjoy the gradual change in the financial trading, in which, apparently, we get to 0.75% The Fed and the increased expectations of growth rates in 2017, which, like last year, faced with the new challenges of the plot in the form Brexit actual initiation of political movements Trump and God knows what ... so the last three of years and pour us a multitude of quite volatile events.

Total:
- With probability of 96% of the signal is not received because the rate will increase according to the forecasts, it is already 99% included in the price. This is the standard situation where the data are located on level forecasts.

- The movement may be erratic, as too early to talk about changing the vector of Fed policy.

- Herself Janet Yellen will ask about Trump and the Bank of England, as a risk factor, but the Federal Reserve will remain politically neutral.

- It is probable that the economic outlook will not be reviewed by the regulator, but the slightest mention of the prospects (of the indirect presence) may support the dollar.

- Probably, the main "completion" of the market will fall to the press conference Yellen.

frozen

Thursday
2:30
12/15/16
AU Number of employed DELAY
(AU Employment Change), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
11:00
12/15/16
NO Interest
(NO Interest Rate), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Changes in Norges Bank's interest rates are not expected. Economists believe that the current level of 0.5% will be recorded in this time.
20 out of 21 economists, Bloomberg surveyed believe that the Bank will keep interest rates at 0.5%. Nevertheless, sentiment for the Norwegian monetary policy remains on the side of the neutral-bear, and that is, reducing the likelihood of higher rates than its rise.

Thursday
11:30
12/15/16
GB Retail Sales
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
If US retail sales have risen from the ashes and are ready to respond to small deviations within +/- 0.3%, the British vice-versa - sank into oblivion.
A small entry for you, which suggests not to increase the risks to this publication - as the indicator can work and keep quiet. FOMC said its word, Brexit also seems to be no delay, we should probably adjust the trigger before the auction

Here especially pay attention to the movement of the pound before the release: the more it will be, the more cautious you need to behave.

Thursday
14:00
12/15/16
GB Official BA rate
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

Thursday
15:30
12/15/16
US Core CPI
(US Core CPI), US, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
12/15/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

JUST FIGURED A NEW WAY TO INVEST, lets understand our ability to invest ( or to catch pips).
About me, I can't say I can forecast 30 or 50 pips everyday, only if I see one that I am certainly sure about. However I can catch 15 pips, or 5 pips a day, it's just a short trend, which every currencies ( eur/usd, gbp/usd,jpy/usd,..etc) will oscillate at least 40pips, once you see the signal to trade, you can gain 5 pips profit for certain, and by 20% of your investing amount, you also can catch 5 pips of three different currencies exchange. you do this everyday, do the math, you invest X dollar, then you use 0.2*X to invest, 0.2*X/1000*10*15=0.03*x,so every day you gain 3%, if you do this every day , for one month, then you will gain 1.03^20(cause there are only 20 trading days a month) - 1, then you will gain 80.61% a month with low risk, do you think this will work ??