The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
The Really Useless Thread
- #146,122
- Dec 8, 2016 7:58am Dec 8, 2016 7:58am
- | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Аdministrator | 1,215 Posts
- #146,125
- Dec 8, 2016 8:09am Dec 8, 2016 8:09am
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: OTM AI IntelliWave™ Trader | 1,107 Posts
Trading in the shadow of SM
- #146,126
- Dec 8, 2016 8:11am Dec 8, 2016 8:11am
- | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Аdministrator | 1,215 Posts
{quote} Thanks. that would be great. In fact if you can post it on google docs and share the link, even better as one can just click the link and see it. if you send me excel file, i can post on google docs.
Ooops possibly wrong file, an older one, l gotta find the up to date one ..
This is the correct one
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #146,131
- Dec 8, 2016 8:48am Dec 8, 2016 8:48am
- | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Аdministrator | 1,215 Posts
{quote} I posted an excel file a while back if you didn't see it's in my past posts ...can re-post the up to date one if you want
{quote} ...I'll just re-post here
*edit: STT good suggestion. With google spreadsheets it will be easier to manage. I'll surely bookmark the link.
{quote} Got it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post9264504 {quote} Thanks! *edit: STT good suggestion. With google spreadsheets it will be easier to manage. I'll surely bookmark the link.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #146,136
- Dec 8, 2016 11:28am Dec 8, 2016 11:28am
- | Joined Aug 2013 | Status: "Don't follow me i'm already lost " | 1,136 Posts
Well my take on today's ECB was extremely dovish. The ONLY thing that sounded even a bit hawkish was the 25% reduction in the asset purchasing programme from 80billion to 60billion per month from April 1st onwards. However this was more than compensated for by, 1. The APP still continues @ current 80b/month till end March. 2. The APP programme has now been extended longer up to a minimum of at least another 9 additional months after that till end of Dec 2017, OR beyond if necessary! 3. Now for 2017 we'll have 3 months @ 80b plus 9 months @ a minimum...
Re-Incarnated
{quote} Thank you for sharing your view. Mine is quite different as I don't think at all ECB today was extremely dovish as you said. In my view, ECB was inline/slighlty hawkish. Inline because a 6 months extension of ECB QE program without any reduction was expected by markets (to get over french and german elections) : we got a 9 months extension but with ECB announcing it will taper (sorry Mario but this is the word) assets purchase to 60bns instead of 80bns (this was not really expected by all at all). So, all in all, I found it more appropriate...
I suppose there are different scales or interpretations of what exactly constitutes "dovish" or "hawkish" and all such words are subjectively understood by different people, so I suppose "the markets" will have to be the final judge of this.
I do agree with you that the "taper" word was taboo today and Mario went to extremes to deflect any mention of it. However talk or rumours of tapering had been in the air for several months now and no matter what particular market surveys one reads it was uncertain in light of recent improvements in EU numbers etc for how long, and at what scale the bond buying would continue. Now we have certainty ..certainty till minimum end of 2017 which we did not have before and also now with a 780 Billion minimum figure for bond purchases for 2017, and at higher levels and for longer beyond that if required.
I do understand your doubts in relation to point #4 in my previous post re concerns about ECB finding enough eligible bonds for purchase etc, but this has long been asked of Draghi and he has each time rebuffed such concerns as not being a problem. Also today they've lowered the maturities which can now be bought to include bonds of just 1 year duration while also making bonds below the ECB deposit rate of -0.4% now eligible for purchase for the first time, so surely this will further ease any concerns here. [This appears to have had the effect so far of shorter dated bonds going up in value with yields decreasing at the expense of longer dated ones (I'd read this last bit somewhere today so just thought I'd put it in there for what it's worth)]
I think we all understand that normalization or "tapering" must one day occur and so yes you are correct, technically today was the first scent of that, but very craftily done by Draghi and without any tantrums experienced by the FED (so far so good!
)Anyway I'm sticking with bearish (my interpretation of ha ha!
) The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #146,140
- Edited 2:57pm Dec 8, 2016 2:29pm | Edited 2:57pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,718 Posts
