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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,061
  • Dec 6, 2016 3:42pm Dec 6, 2016 3:42pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Reason for Electoral College vote rather than popular vote. Trump won the "country" by a landslide. {image}
I have never understood the (arguably pretty archaic) argument that a large area of land sparsely populated should have the same electoral weight as a smaller area densely populated. Since people, not land are what's being governed, why should land area come into play at all? But the last line there makes clear the motive of the author. Anyway, I don't expect to see a day when the electoral college is history. It's possible that enough states could pass laws that render it moot but I doubt I'll see that day either. As far as speculation about them voting against the president elect at their meeting goes, also possible. Probability-wise something along the lines of getting bit by a shark while that shark gets struck by lightning, but I guess 2016 has had a way of flipping the bird to those who measure probable outcomes.
  • #146,062
  • Edited 4:33pm Dec 6, 2016 4:21pm | Edited 4:33pm
But this time is different! Sure ain't different so far.

Please tell me the fundamental reason why the "smart money" decided to buy 1.05xx instead of sell it.

I already told you the technical reasons before the fact (large continued drop into yearly support was not a greenlight to sell), now you have an after the fact advantage point to give me the fundamental justification...please help me understand how it was not a technical move. Perhaps the others in the thread that followed blindly looking for a momentum sell could use the education as well. What went wrong, and why?

as a matter of fact the short squeeze specifically was pointed out before the fact.
  • #146,063
  • Edited 6:58pm Dec 6, 2016 5:10pm | Edited 6:58pm
Double zero high gluten unbleached flour, fresh compressed yeast, sea salt, filtered water, San Marzano tomatoes, first press olive oil, parmigiano (preferably reggiano or older), bufala mozz, garlic and fresh basil are the fundamentals. If you want to get technical you need to get your hands on some marinated flat white anchovies.
  • #146,064
  • Dec 6, 2016 5:44pm Dec 6, 2016 5:44pm
Quoting goosebone
Double zero high gluten unbleached flour, fresh compressed yeast, sea salt, filtered water, San Marzano tomatoes, first press olive oil, parmigiano (preferably reggiano or older), bufala mozz, garlic and fresh basil are the fundamentals. If you want to get technical you need to get your hands on some marinated flat white anchovies.
sounds like we could do dinner!!
  • #146,065
  • Dec 6, 2016 6:07pm Dec 6, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting Pharm0r
But this time is different! Sure ain't different so far. Please tell me the fundamental reason why the "smart money" decided to buy 1.05xx instead of sell it.
Maybe because market was heavily positioned to the sell side & if smart money also joined the selling, who would be buying? not enough buyers to cause the price to go down.
  • #146,066
  • Dec 6, 2016 6:10pm Dec 6, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting sisse
...Exactly no more, no less, no drama. sisse
But Sisse smart money should already be in since 1.13 level, am I wrong? Unless 1.05 is the momentum and they are adding?
  • #146,067
  • Dec 6, 2016 7:02pm Dec 6, 2016 7:02pm
The main goal of "smart money" is to get in and out at the best possible price, which unfortunately causes maximum pain to the rest of us. They know where most of us put our stops, and they know where the breakout traders are lurking. Because of this it's relatively cheap and easy for them to run the stops and sell all the orders that dumb money is buying (in a short squeeze). This happens all the time, in every timeframe! If you can align your way of thinking to that of the smart money, and be aware of the maximum pain levels they might be targeting, then your results should improve dramatically.

Also never forget the most important lesson that sisse taught us here (in my opinion): always try to reduce your risk. This doesn't mean placing tight stops in obvious places of course. His "accumulation / distribution" diagram (which he kindly reposted just the other day) should be studied and internalised before all else
You reap what you sow.
  • #146,068
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:52pm Dec 6, 2016 8:52pm
If that move was a short squeeze then we should see a continuation of the main trend from here, which is down, correct? Or is it normal for a short squeeze to continue for few days before it is done?
Quoting NorthTrader
The main goal of "smart money" is to get in and out at the best possible price, which unfortunately causes maximum pain to the rest of us. of course. His "accumulation / distribution" diagram (which he kindly reposted just the other day) should be studied and internalised before all else
  • #146,069
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:06pm Dec 6, 2016 10:06pm
Quoting Pharm0r
But this time is different! Sure ain't different so far. Please tell me the fundamental reason why the "smart money" decided to buy 1.05xx instead of sell it. I already told you the technical reasons before the fact (large continued drop into yearly support was not a greenlight to sell), now you have an after the fact advantage point to give me the fundamental justification...please help me understand how it was not a technical move. Perhaps the others in the thread that followed blindly looking for a momentum sell could use the education as well....
Look buddy, are you familiar with risk on - risk off concept ? risk sentiment is a major factor in market movers and shakers , for exemple , the swing low from 1.129x that broke the summer range in order to price in the Dec rate [and beyond] was triggered after the election event , euro has been underpinned for 9 consecutive days then it stopped around yearly lows then it ranged then it made another low ...point is the pattern in which price moved is typical of a breakout with FA aligned but a short squeeze happened , now if we talk purely TA then what were the support levels that were broken to the downside with no come back points !! you can see that the only levels for reference that are well defended are those on high Tfs meaning mid/long term swings where bear took contol. So TA wise , a pullback in such circumtances is a 50% probability or less for exemple ...risk management wise , if one is short from above , it would be risk free according to the number of entries allowed before the move started from above. As you can see from my ealier reply to the troll challenge on the serious bulls , I took 1.085x for refrence as -no close above- price and typically if sentiment was to turn around then such rejection of lows should have extended the move not close under the key level 1.073x...I can go on and on with TA basics whatever is your strategy/lines but it's not the point .

Let me put it this way in short terms , most of the members are undercapitalized thus the way they trade is affecting their perception of mapping a trade .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,070
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:47pm Dec 6, 2016 10:47pm
Quoting Xxavier
If that move was a short squeeze then we should see a continuation of the main trend from here, which is down, correct? Or is it normal for a short squeeze to continue for few days before it is done? {quote}
Yes, a daily timeframe squeeze can certainly last for more than one day. I personally wouldn't short here at 1.0720 because it looks to me like a visit to 1.0850 or higher is probable. It may even spike to 1.1150 on tapering news (not expected), but that would be the outer extreme of the short squeeze in my opinion. And as hoom said (paraphrased), a weekly or monthly close above 1.0850 would be bad for bears.

Anwyay, I'm not part of the "smart money" and am still trying to learn their devious ways, so please don't just take it from me! Good luck.
You reap what you sow.
  • #146,071
  • Edited 12:28am Dec 7, 2016 12:18am | Edited 12:28am
A uneventful Asian session as usual with majors markets. Expecting a jittery European morning session later with eyes in Equities finding bids till tomorrow....

Quoting goosebone
Double zero high gluten unbleached flour, fresh compressed yeast, sea salt, filtered water, San Marzano tomatoes, first press olive oil, parmigiano (preferably reggiano or older), bufala mozz, garlic and fresh basil are the fundamentals. If you want to get technical you need to get your hands on some marinated flat white anchovies.
Good choice! ...so if I give you or anyone all those fresh and raw ingredients in a bag can you make a pizza? Or do you need something else to do it?

_________ _______

@Pharm0r You are in 'selective argue mode' scheming keywords and not really reading what is beneath. Forest for trees....my 2 cents you seem to stopped reading since a few weeks ago and just focusing to be 'right' in one particular micro trade that is not even part of what is in play for the next few weeks .....

we'll talk later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,072
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:15am Dec 7, 2016 1:15am
Personally I'd rather buy a dip in cable, as I have no idea where support is in the EUR....I'm gonna work some 1.2560 bids in sterling and call it a week...not seeing anything else to do really...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #146,073
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:37am Dec 7, 2016 1:37am
Quoting srt
{quote} Reason for Electoral College vote rather than popular vote. Trump won the "country" by a landslide. {image}
Trump won by the rules and now has the right/duty to govern, no discussion on this.

Electoral rules are always an headhace in every modern democracy, we could talk for months and is not the case, but le te me kid a little.

Following your posted reasoning:

*) You have 100 milions people nation with 100 counties

*) 1 county with 99.999901 people vote A, 99 counties with 1 people vote B

In a democracy the president should be A or B?
  • #146,074
  • Edited 1:55am Dec 7, 2016 1:41am | Edited 1:55am
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} Normally it retraces 50% where bulls should emerge but if last day top is taken out, no chance to take fresh longs... 1.0680 to 1.0650 is the zone i'm looking at...
I don't know what it does normally, but take a fib with some PA to support it, think your chances will be better...both those spots look decent on the hourly, not so much on the four hour...

1.0160 still looks like a good level in USDCHF to lean on, but I played that card earlier, still a good level to watch....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #146,075
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:48am Dec 7, 2016 1:48am
Mar 31, 2016 11:50
Quoting hathor
Crazy, but sold (mild) the current high and will sell (hard) in case of breaking out 1.137xx.
Sep 6, 2016 14:00
Quoting hathor
{quote} The plan is the same since March. Waiting it under 1.095xx. Time will tell. [EurUsd]
Oct 20, 2016 16:28
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bingo. Waiting for a higher time frame signal here: - daily: no sign of it yet (only over 1.095xx) - weekly is under progress, but close of Friday is still far away. - monthly: if monthly signal needed, than current month is already out of question -> maybe price will hover under 1.095xx till close of Nov (before that October or November will be heavily oversold and will penetrate some previous lows to provoke the bear herd)
Was a long story, but here comes the 'real long' soon.

Daily signal - check
Weekly signal - check
Monthly signal - under progress
November penetrated last years leg (2015 Nov & Dec)

f(z)=z2+c
  • #146,076
  • Dec 7, 2016 2:13am Dec 7, 2016 2:13am
these levels may perhaps be getting a tad long in the tooth, but they are still getting respect....for reference, 1.0775 is one of last years quarters....and it has some daily PA giving it some extra strength perhaps....something to keep under your hat, if you still have a hat that is....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 40 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #146,077
  • Dec 7, 2016 3:37am Dec 7, 2016 3:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
EU moving up is absolutely logical if you truly believe what you've been saying about FED rates being priced in. If there is a move after the FOMC, then they were not in fact completely priced in. The whole notion of "priced in", is that the exchange rate or whatever is trading where it should be in relation to the fundamental aspects expected. From my eyes, EU is moving via the Dollar not the EURO* (as is everything else). So the recent move in EU should be contributed more to the sell off of dollar than the economic underlying of the EURO*. Perhaps...
I agree with you that most of the time the USD is driving the EURUSD pair, but the move up we have seen after the Italian vote was definitely a Euro driven move.
Below you can find two articles from talkingforex during the euro up move on Monday.
3 things stand out to me when i am reading those articles.

1: Its a broad EUR based move, euro seems to be winning from al his counter parts
2: It probably started with a EURJPY surge because of this Behind this have been comments out of France welcoming Japanese investment in the single currency zone, but ultimately, it is the risk on mood driving trade at present and EURUSD and the rest just followed
3: We had low liquidity and could gain momentum by stops getting triggered.

EUR/JPY targeting 122.00-15 resistance EUR/JPY is now targeting 122.00-15 resistance, with North American traders continuing the post (Italian) referendum recovery in the risk pairings. Through here, were may get stop loss momentum carrying the pair towards 123.50-124.25, but these levels will also carry significant selling interest. Behind this have been comments out of France welcoming Japanese investment in the single currency zone, but ultimately, it is the risk on mood driving trade at present. EUR/USD is pushing higher in the meantime, but for now, sellers ahead of 1.0700 are likely to maintain the upper hand unless the USD perspective softens. USD/JPY little changed as a result, but holding better levels in the cross rate flow.


EUR tearing away on the upside as stops triggered Stops through 1.0700 as EUR/USD extends higher on the post Italian referendum relief rally. 1.0725-50 is the next touted sell zone, but liquidity thin and momentum could see further stops triggered to se 1.0800-1.0900 levels from here. EUR/JPY is now through 122.15, and this is adding to EUR momentum across the board, with EUR/GBP also higher to trade past .8400. EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD have both covered well over 2.5 cents from their respective session lows as a result, and this looks to dictate from here despite the accommodative stance ECB – growing talk that the ECB could signal QE extension this week.
  • #146,078
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:04am Dec 7, 2016 4:04am
Quoting NorthTrader
The main goal of "smart money" is to get in and out at the best possible price, which unfortunately causes maximum pain to the rest of us. They know where most of us put our stops, and they know where the breakout traders are lurking. Because of this it's relatively cheap and easy for them to run the stops and sell all the orders that dumb money is buying (in a short squeeze). This happens all the time, in every timeframe! If you can align your way of thinking to that of the smart money, and be aware of the maximum pain levels they might be targeting,...

Hi NorthTrader,

By reading your post i get the feeling that you think that the institutional traders (smart money) are using the the retail traders (dumb money) as liquidity.
Some time ago i also thought that would be the case until i came to the realization that the retail traders probably only represent a very small portion of the daily traded volume. I picture it like 90% of the participants are probably retail traders that are only representing 10% of the daily volume going around in FX. So we as retail traders can never satisfy the hunger for liquidity of the smart money. There fore i think its more a game of smart money trying to steal away other smart money and crushing the unfortunate retail trader in the process.

Some time ago i started exploring orderflow stuff and started to play around with software that could make big orders visible in the Futures market. I thought that by doing so that i could ride with big market orders or could hide my stops after big iceberg orders thinking i would be protected by the smart money.
In reality the big ice berg orders would just get run over by a series of bigger market orders and would get stopped out,when you look long enough at this stuff you come to the conclusion that the big players are more focused on outsmarting other big players and dont bother too much on what the retail player is doing.
  • #146,079
  • Dec 7, 2016 5:41am Dec 7, 2016 5:41am
Quoting janpec1000
EU nearly completing flip target in single session, not unusual as its symetrical to current volatility. The laging one is GU, which has currently set path to break current highs in todays/tomorrow session (no larger macros to follow that view however). DE30 on watch list next few sessions for possible upward leg completion and opening of extended move.
London today started the extended upward target on DE30, opening now further larger up move around 11200 area. Missed the long early today, still fishing for micros today or tomorrow ahead of ECB.
  • #146,080
  • Dec 7, 2016 6:21am Dec 7, 2016 6:21am
Quoting sisse
...so if I give you or anyone all those fresh and raw ingredients in a bag can you make a pizza? Or do you need something else to do it?
Method. From experience. An understanding of the materials, tools etc. based on why those things work together the way they do.
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