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BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

  • #541
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:48pm Dec 6, 2016 1:48pm
yea end result is Brexit each way we go ,you only have to listen to May she wont back down on
its the government that must negotiate without red lines first

Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} Thanks I love being told that I'm not boring people as much as I suspect I am. So we can distil your comment to... 1. May is in favour of leaving the EU. 2. It is in the EU's favour to pursue free trade with the UK, without any obligations on the UK's part. 3. The EU is damaged with each country that leaves the union. 4. If the Supreme Court rules that May doesn't have the authority to trigger article 50, a snap election could be called. 5. Parliament are in favour of triggering article 50, so if it was put to a vote then the vote...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #542
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:53pm Dec 6, 2016 1:53pm
if you think about France theres high danger if EU is less popular than even England ,we are talking major countries next year elections

Quoting Bones
look to the future elections are we alone ? Much of the disaffection with the EU among Europeans can be attributed to Brussels handling of the refugee issue. In every country surveyed, overwhelming majorities disapprove of how Brussels has dealt with the problem. This includes 94% of Greeks, 88% of Swedes and 77% of Italians. The strongest approval of EU management of the refugee crisis is in the Netherlands, but that backing is a tepid 31%. june 16 {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #543
  • Dec 6, 2016 2:02pm Dec 6, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting Bones
yea end result is Brexit each way we go ,you only have to listen to May she wont back down on its the government that must negotiate without red lines first {quote}
OK, so what are the compromises that could be made, or changes that could ensue, that would affect any of the players that I listed before, and how would these players act in the face of these changes? And last of all, how would these actions be reflected in the markets?

These are the questions we want answers to. But to get those answers we need to study the participants and the potential changes through the Brexit process. Not just this, but we need to understand the larger picture an if there is something greater than Brexit or the EU at play. We can study the ripples in a swimming pool when we drop a coin into it, and predict the effects, but we really need to make sure a fat man isn't planning to jump off the diving board too.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #544
  • Dec 6, 2016 2:40pm Dec 6, 2016 2:40pm
I do not believe anyone can, at the moment, provide definite answers expect bedtime stories that most likely will be off track as too many factors play together. As mentioned in roughly past 12h, from a EU's Brexit Nagotiator*, the Brexit process shall take two (2) years. Not all the points are clear, as Bloomberg says: KEEP CALM AND NEGOTIATE. What remains is to wait on the developments and adjust strategies on the go.

For the discussion, I suggest to narrow it to key few points/questions. Getting into discussion about 20-so involved parties is a material for Ph.D.

*http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-12-06/-keep-calm-and-negotiate-eu-s-brexit-negotiator-video
  • #545
  • Edited 3:40pm Dec 6, 2016 3:17pm | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting paka
I do not believe anyone can, at the moment, provide definite answers expect bedtime stories that most likely will be off track as too many factors play together. As mentioned in roughly past 12h, from a EU's Brexit Nagotiator*, the Brexit process shall take two (2) years. Not all the points are clear, as Bloomberg says: KEEP CALM AND NEGOTIATE. What remains is to wait on the developments and adjust strategies on the go. For the discussion, I suggest to narrow it to key few points/questions. Getting into discussion about 20-so involved parties is...
Is Brexit good or bad for the GBP?

EDIT: My point is that you cannot know if Brexit will reduce or increase the exchange rate of the GBP unless you know what Brexit is and how it effects the players. Your suggestion, highlighted above, offers no guidance other than "just do what is right" without indicating what is right or how to divine it.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #546
  • Dec 6, 2016 3:55pm Dec 6, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting paka
I do not believe anyone can, at the moment, provide definite answers expect bedtime stories that most likely will be off track as too many factors play together. As mentioned in roughly past 12h, from a EU's Brexit Nagotiator*, the Brexit process shall take two (2) years. Not all the points are clear, as Bloomberg says: KEEP CALM AND NEGOTIATE. What remains is to wait on the developments and adjust strategies on the go. For the discussion, I suggest to narrow it to key few points/questions. Getting into discussion about 20-so involved parties is...
After a little further thought about your post, I thought I would add a little extra response... I am not claiming that we need definite answers about the outcome, I but I am saying that we need to be clear on causal relationships. Without causal relationships we have no information to trade upon.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #547
  • Dec 6, 2016 4:04pm Dec 6, 2016 4:04pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} Is Brexit good or bad for the GBP?
It all depends on the deal UK strikes with EU, if any. I think it is too early to say anything*.

The strategy I decide to follow is to watch the news and observe market reaction. Based on market response I will accommodate the trades accordingly.

* Despite the side I choose to be, I can give many reasons for both scenarios to play out. Such judgment and opinions, though, will be highly subjective. I decide to stay calm, observe, and eventually react.
  • #548
  • Dec 6, 2016 5:54pm Dec 6, 2016 5:54pm
Quoting paka
{quote} It all depends on the deal UK strikes with EU, if any. I think it is too early to say anything*. The strategy I decide to follow is to watch the news and observe market reaction. Based on market response I will accommodate the trades accordingly. * Despite the side I choose to be, I can give many reasons for both scenarios to play out. Such judgment and opinions, though, will be highly subjective. I decide to stay calm, observe, and eventually react.
Eventually react to what? Does your strategy amount to jumping in with the direction of the price change?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #549
  • Dec 7, 2016 8:54am Dec 7, 2016 8:54am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} So we can distil your (@Bones) comments to...
1. May is in favour of leaving the EU.
2. It is in the EU's favour to pursue free trade with the UK, without any obligations on the UK's part.
3. The EU is damaged with each country that leaves the union.
4. If the Supreme Court rules that May doesn't have the authority to trigger article 50, a snap election could be called. 5. Parliament are in favour of triggering article 50, so if it was put to a vote then the vote would be in favour of it. Have I got that right?
That was also my reading. of @Bones case. so let me comment on each..
I think some points are self evident. But poiints 2 & 3 are dangerous misjudgments.

2. (Quote) It is in the EU's favour to pursue free trade with the UK, without any obligations on the UK's part.
IMHO it is Not. To think so is to completely misunderstand the EU position.

3. (Quote) The EU is damaged with each country that leaves the union.
IMHO ..broadly yes..
but in UKs case less so because it is not a participant in the two key EU projects the common currency and the Shenken Agreement.
In fact given that t would under many criteria be seen preferable my some EU Members to have UK as a EEA member than a full Member.
Significantly however EEA terms require contributions and FoM compliance WITHOUT full Services or Capital access.
  • #550
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:09am Dec 7, 2016 10:09am
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} That was also my reading. of @Bones case. so let me comment on each.. I think some points are self evident. But poiints 2 & 3 are dangerous misjudgments. 2. (Quote) It is in the EU's favour to pursue free trade with the UK, without any obligations on the UK's part. IMHO it is Not. To think so is to completely misunderstand the EU position. 3. (Quote) The EU is damaged with each country that leaves the union. IMHO ..broadly yes.. but in UKs case less so because it is not a participant in the two key EU projects the common currency and the...
Comment on (2): It may be in the EU's favour to give the UK what it wants in the narrow sense - after all, the UK trades at a deficit with them, and the UK has more worldwide opportunity than the EU27 that it could better take advantage of outside the EU. But in the wider sense, the risk is breakdown of the EU if all the states begin trying to negotiate exceptions as a result of a favourable Brexit deal for the UK.

Regarding (3): To me an EEA arrangement seems wholly unacceptable to the electorate... if this happened then the Establishment would lose control at the next election. The important question might be this - "Does the EU prefer a friendly UK Gov by the Conservatives that it's given good terms, or an unfriendly UK Gov by UKIP on it's doorstep?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #551
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:35am Dec 7, 2016 10:35am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} Eventually react to what? Does your strategy amount to jumping in with the direction of the price change?
In a ballpark, yes. Unless I would prefer to play a long term (3-12month), which I do not do; I do not trust currency markets, they are unpredictable and I am not willing to spend this much time to keep 24/7 finger on a trigger.
  • #552
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:36am Dec 7, 2016 10:36am
Can you guys comment, in short statements, what does EU and UK gain and loose by exiting Euro zone? Short explanations of why would be also helpful.
  • #553
  • Dec 7, 2016 11:03am Dec 7, 2016 11:03am
Quoting paka
Can you guys comment, in short statements, what does EU and UK gain and loose by exiting Euro zone? Short explanations of why would be also helpful.
I think I responded to this before, but this is the purpose of the discussion - to work out the consequences.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #554
  • Dec 8, 2016 2:28am Dec 8, 2016 2:28am
I think we would all accept that Brexit has been a political decision. Not an economic one...
And in turn it has trigger a political response from theEU.
What we are engaged in now, is how least economic damage and greatest advantage to all parties may be salvaged within the apparently irreconcilable political positions adopted on both sides.

Unfortunately the opposing respective Political positions appear to offer little scope for compromise.
In consequence the opportunities for Leons "Bompromise", or what has been otherwise characterised as "Soft Brexit" appear very limited.
In normal circumstances a Customs Union approach might well be a the most pragmatic/achievable outcome. However there is already a long established model for access through this framework and as Leon has pointed out it is incompatible with the declared UK political red line on FoM.
Compromise on this will not be possible for EU because of its destabilizing consequences on existing associated Nations agreement.. (EEA)
I am personally coming to the pessimistic view that as things stand, and however dangerous and disruptive to industry and the economy of both EU and UK that a "Hard" Brexit (WTO outcome) with at best, a transitional agreement to mitigate commercial shock is the only foreseeable outcome from what I believe will be a deeply frustrating and alienating negotiation process.

Three things stand out from that prognosis,.
1. that the timetable imposed by Article 50 disengagement process is wildly inadequate to the task of such and outcome.
2. that the potential for very serious disruption arising with consequences for security of migrants from both sides, for industry, for the City and for markets in terms of a "off the cliff" situation arising in 2019 is inevitable.
3. that given that the negotiations 2017-2019 coincides with a number of potentially gamechanging elections in key EU states, as part of their political cycle,
..and the requirement of unanimity on EU side for ratification of settlement terms, I frankly believe that little or nothing can be reliably negotiated with any real expectation of consensus.

You will deduce from my comments above that I am deeply pessimistic. I wish I could be otherwise, but (if I may descend to the vernacular for a moment.)....
I think Brexit is the biggest CLUSTER-FKUC since WW2...

As Bismark said ..“Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best”
In this case the "next best" is a long way down.
  • #555
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:23am Dec 8, 2016 7:23am
Quoting cliffedwards
I think we would all accept that Brexit has been a political decision. Not an economic one... And in turn it has trigger a political response from theEU. What we are engaged in now, is how least economic damage and greatest advantage to all parties may be salvaged within the apparently irreconcilable political positions adopted on both sides. Unfortunately the opposing respective Political positions appear to offer little scope for compromise. In consequence the opportunities for Leons "Bompromise", or what has been otherwise characterised as "Soft...
I think I'm in complete agreement with this.

The question is, what is the smart moneys read of the situation, do you think it's the same?

As far as trading opportunities are concerned, I think the main one would be the shock of the UK agreed to one of the compromises that the EU are happy with. This would lead to a spike in Both the EUR & GBP wouldn't it?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #556
  • Edited 9:01am Dec 9, 2016 8:40am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} I think I'm in complete agreement with this. The question is, what is the smart moneys read of the situation, do you think it's the same?
1. I think its important to view your question in TF terms, because as we all know, a successful scalping call, interday call, swing call and LT Position call on the same instrument may each appear contradictory of each other.. (when described in directional or Bullish/Bearish terms)

2. Markets like stability. And I believe that markets and those that make them are having problems in dealing with current wave of Political Volatility with major implications for market expectations.. demand/supply/regulation and terms of trade, as Brexit uniquely has. Weve seen this in both Bexit and the UK Presidential outcomes.
All changes bring risk. Advocates of change always argue that change-risk is less than continuity -risk. (Sort of like when driving towards a cliff edge.. a 90/180 degree change is a obviously less risk strategy).. and vice-a-versa. In our current exchange you and I appear to be ad idem, that on balance, the political and process dynamic of Brexit creates significant risk of a highly unsatisfactory outcome... ie the WTO/Hard Brexit scenario...(and I define outcome as where we find ourselves in 24/36 months.)
Do I think if this is correctly priced into the market.
I would think not.
However I also think that given the uncertainty created by the disjuncture of economic and political imperatives as discussed in the positions of the parties pre-negotiation.. current market pricing reflects shorter term and and technical imperatives, rather than longer term perspectives, , which involve too many political variables, with which the market has less modeling competence ...


Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} As far as trading opportunities are concerned, I think the main one would be the shock of the UK agreed to one of the compromises that the EU are happy with. This would lead to a spike in Both the EUR & GBP wouldn't it?
Yes.
  • #557
  • Dec 22, 2016 5:55am Dec 22, 2016 5:55am
Scotland plans to take steps towards staying in EU single-market place. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/12/19/scotland-plans-to-take-steps-towards-staying-in-eu-single-market-place/) This week they were scheduled to publish proposals concerning its staying in the EU single-market in the context of the UK’s Brexit vote from earlier this year. The move aims to avoid the “national disaster” of a hard Brexit. Its government is set to receive new powers post-Brexit.
Do you think they can actually succeed?
  • #558
  • Dec 24, 2016 2:14pm Dec 24, 2016 2:14pm
Anyone watched the Lexit movie on YouTube?

I would like to hear people's opinion of it.

Happy Jesus day!

https://youtu.be/pq72f81kkM4
  • #559
  • Jan 4, 2017 10:05am Jan 4, 2017 10:05am
Quoting itsallover
{quote} I believe this by far to be the biggest flaw of a top down system,,,,,, we certainly dodged that bullet
QUESTION: How many Muslims emigrate or gain access to UK BECAUSE OF THEIR EU CITIZENSHIP

You might then care to compare that figure with the number that migrate to UK through the entirely sovereign controlled internal UK government migration policy.
Feel free to let us all know what your researches reveal to you.
  • #560
  • Jan 4, 2017 10:09am Jan 4, 2017 10:09am
Quoting Kubez
Anyone watched the Lexit movie on YouTube? I would like to hear people's opinion of it. Happy Jesus day! https://youtu.be/pq72f81kkM4
This thread was not set up as a billboard for the display of propaganda movies from ANY side.
It was set up to allow informed discussion that encompassed distilled argument from members on all sides.

Please remove this embedded video and replace with a URL link.
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