BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

Im trying to get to a central point here.


Your first point was that migration is a unique problem for the UK because of its its national population density. I disagree.. IMHO That doesnt fly.
Ive pointed out and proved that National population density is a wholly inappropriate measure in this case.
because migration effects predominently urban populations.
% population in UK in Urban populations is very comparable to Canada, US, France, Germany Spain etc.

Your second point is that there is a housing crisis in the UK. I fully agree. Its disgraceful.
And underlined by the huge increase in house prices..
Your great graph here www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2054535&d=1478092621 confirms.
You illustrate clearly that reason for the crisis to be failure of market for over 20 years to provide adequate supply.
The issue that raises naturally is why has the market failed to provide adequate supply?

You tell me housing crisis is due to "Land Supply". No more room. I Disagree.
I say its Government. And a planning legal and tax system thats hobbled further development.
If you are right thats it a "No more room" problem? I would naturally expect to find that when compared to other urban areas in Europe, US and the World.
Urban densities in UK are already maxed out?
The facts show otherwise. Urban densities in UK are nowhere near "Maxed Out" by international standards.
In fact there is NOT ONE UK urban area listed in the top 10 most dense Urban areas in Europe?
From Paris to Athens, From Fredricksburg to Bucharest, From Bilbao to Naples.
Nor does any UK city appear in lists of top 40 cities in the world.
Your post focuses on London. Well first the Urban population densities in London bear little comparison to those in the rest of the UK.
In fact when ranked by district youve got to 20th+ to find any outside London.

So to summarise..

I contend that the UK is far from unique in terms of Urban population density compared with other EU countries.
The Housing crisis in the UK is NOT as a result of "Not Enough room" but a totally inept planning system and legal framework which is entirely within Governments competence and power to reform, but that such reform is inconvenient because of the huge tax take HMRC get from interfering in the property market and creating serious tax barriers in the market that hamper mobility in the housing market and hobble the construction industry.




Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_population_density
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_cities_proper_by_population_density
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population_density

ok you dispute England is most densely populated major EU country (search it)
I give you heat map of areas Canada, UK and Europe seem to disagree to REGIONS
I give enough info
you think its gov planning
you don't live UK so I guess your happy we build over green belt to build for our European brothers ,let alone our own needs
thats what your talking when it comes to planning
sit on that M25 a few more hours to get to work ,how you going deal with that
or wait another week to see a doctor/hospital
trust me I seen how these hospitals look first hand in recent times your there all day after appointment time
thats what your talking to achieve it for what ? people will continue to come to the UK to the South/East it will never be solved

theres no answer other than stop it the verdict of the vote ,I'm talking quality of life

your answer is basically keep building for the migrants and our existing shortfall let me know how ? after Labour,Conservative and Coalition have failed for decades

tax barriers ?

oh yea when you worked out what successive governments have failed
have a think what then would happen with open boarders and no housing problem

FLASH...
Ive not posted here for some weeks because however interesting exchanges here have been..
The have almost ALL been OFF SUBJECT in terms of the purpose and declared focus of this thread.
So now lets try to get back to what we started out to do here..?

Quoting cliffedwards

Disliked

... Yesterday the UK voters have spoken. And the UK has voted to LEAVE the EU.

Ignored

Yep.. looking back I see that whats has happened in the last 500 posts .. have been some very interesting and for the most part well researched and argued exchanges that I have learned from and perhaps some others too. Problem is that in practically none we have we focused on reflected the the subject and purpose of the thread??? .. and instead have ranged over revisiting immigration, democratic processes within EU and even second referendums..LoL

While these things underlie the domestic political reasons for the referendum outcome.. they do not "look .. at the economic, market and econoPolitical consequences, intended and unintended as they play out after this historic democratic decision"

This is a traders forum. Our concerns are the performance of the economy, and the practical consequences of the ground breaking Brexit decision, on that on markets and particularly on Fx going forward. These are all, on short medium and even long term horizons, dependent on the terms we achieve for UK in the upcoming Article 50 negotiations. Now even though we havent even got to that point, nor even reached a consensus in Government of what that might look like. But we are beginning to see what realistic options we are likely to have going into this process. We are also beginning to understand the complexities of the process, and what many of the problems and unintended consequences of the decision has created.

The importance of an orderly exit has been underlined by Carneys comments in last 24 hours. Anyone agree?
Perhaps that a starting point to get back on track here?

Bexit has potential to be superseded by on going events ,theres lots of other risks looming, I already mentioned

Actually every knock to the EU including US elections changes how this will evolve
While no doubt you know your onions unfortunately if you want to make money thinking fundamental you need to look further afield
to grasp where this is going
theres a anti globalism movement that you don't see , Brits wont be alone

maybe the thread title and your own view is this is only about UK

So far the pound seem to be recovering from the effects of the Brexit. The latest recovery comes for the British pound as a British court ordered the prime minister to consult the parliament on exit procedures.

Not maybe . Totally.

EU bashing is in my view a childish and useless focus, now that we are committed to Brexit.
Endless debate on the legitimacy of the electorates focus on immigration issues equally so.
As is the idological rehetoric (best characterized as Verbal Graffiti) of many activists on both sides.
Its time for pragmatism. Its time for the adults to take back control. and the kids to go to bed.

I and most people have moved on and want now to know how the Brexit decision is going to effect the UK. How we make it lead to a better future for our kids, and the stability security fairness of our society. And since it is a democratic mandate thats so breathtaking vague this should be the overwhelming focus of out attention going forward.
Brexit means Brexit.. is BULLSHIT... and a sinicure to the UKIP-Lite wing of the Conservative government.
We are in crisis. A narrow majority has stated what we dont want.. and we are bound by that.. but with no consensus on what we do next. And with a goverment that appears to be divided and overwhelmed by the very complexity of the process. And with domestic debate is mired in political idology rather than consensus on a favourable outcome for our jobs, industry, society, the environment, security etc etc. going forward I am deeply concerned.

Our country is and always has been incredibly myopic. As a post imperial power that within 3 generations ruled over 1/4 the worlds landmass. its entirely understandable. We have a deeply flawed media that plays on that. But that is no help to a rational management strategy of the very serious problems facis us and the world.

Globalization and technology has generated enormous enrichment for international commercial elites.
And sovereign governments globally, particularly those in the west have failed to cooperate properly to prevent this becoming a major factor in inequality.
BUT.. and its a big BUT.. globalization the overwhelming effect of globalization is that has created enormous real unacknowledged wealth for ordinary people in developed countries by lowering prices of what they buy. The dress or trousers produced in Bangladesh for 2.. cannot be manufactured in Uk for less than 5.,
The Uk consumer buy in UK high street for 30. ..but would otherwise be paying 60/100 for same item.
Reality is that Cheaper prices brought about by globalization make us wealthier. Flat screen TVs/Iphones/clothes/ furniture consumer durable s etc etc...
We can see that wealth effect in the % of average income spent on food alone.
But so far as the 4.8% unemployment figure it shows has not impacted in jobs here in the UK, as it has in southern Europe.

We have weathered the globalization/technological revolution sweeping the world so far. IMHO not least because of our close association with Europe...
Any serious disruption of those relationships are deeply threatening. The characterization labeled "project fear" of these concerns, by populist political actors... which IMHO present simplistic solutions to all these immensely complex issues... IMHO seriously underestimate that threat.

Im reminded of the satirical version of the Rudyard Kipling's famous poem.... which goes..

"If you can keep your head when all about are loosing theirs..
you obviously dont understand the situation..!!!! LoL

My main point is Brexit is bad for Europe rather than Uk or at least just as bad
they just lost a major player all they had to do is move a bit on freedom of movement
Clearly it dose not work
Mass economic immigration is something that needs attention I don't care much for the argument its some kind of economic benefit
Its very short sited I can think of many negatives including with regard to the countries their fleeing

I'm pretty sure France will run in line with the Uk as did America on a general level
So Its Europe thats failling to connect with the public at large ,even if Europe is a good thing

Things could well develop that Uk does have its cake and eat it ,we want free trade some globalisation works on the levels you mention
Free trade is not an issue we want it
you see Uk isolated but I suspect its the other way round going forward

Yes. The economic consequences of a the pandoras Box that Brexit has opened .. together with the chaos the UK government and political system appears to be in has prompted the market to believe possibility of an exit outcome that would be deeply damaging to UK economy and industry. As some rationality comes to the rhetoric of the government.. ( vis Davis) and it becomes likely that they must consult with the Parliament before embarking on an undefined negotiation policy, the market has regained some confidence in a less disastrous outcome.

Maybe you didnt hear me.
With great respect. Ill say it again...
I couldnt give a FKUC about what happens in Europe. Were out? Savvy?

I care about what happens in the UK.
In case you havent noticed we are in potential SHIT. (No -- FORGET about economic indicators etc thats now.. not NEXT)..
And I dont want to listen to any more justifications, or how the other guy is wrong.. and not us. Or how a 52/48 nonbinding referendum has brought us to this.
But I accept it. And now quite reasonably like millions of ordinary people throughout the UK , I want to know about NEXT. HOW this "will of the People decision" can be translated in to better life, better future for our kids and better economic circumstances for our county going forward.

So maybe in you next post you can lay out a Brexit strategy for going forward... that we can all appreciate, examine and dissect..
And that recognises the realities of the world in 2016.??

Theres no chaos the government in power are very clear they want control the borders and laws and have free trade in a nut shell
Its impossible to move forward and create red lines prior to negotiating ,its not about not having a plan
Like any negotiation it evolves from each side ,what in the end will be acceptable

Its a long process but the goals are clearly laid out ,during that process EU will find themselves under pressure to move on their pillars we reject and soon to be others

The whole court thing is ridiculous I don't see how they can win even if its ruled against the government ,complete ploy to soften and weaken UKs hand

the two are connected thats why I think your a narrow fundamental thinker ,you said as traders how can we make money
we can short Eur Gbp with a high degree of certainty going into next year

a technical representation of what I just said in past few posts

@Bones..

I invited you to layout in your next post a Brexit strategy for going forward... that we can all appreciate, examine and dissect..
And that recognises the realities of the world in 2016.??

I and most others are here to discuss fundamental economic and technical market issues and not political ones.
Now you feel up to that? Or not?

For me there is nothing more difficult, than to estimate policy risks for the foreign exchange market. First, policy for me in general the dark, and secondly, any games of politics conceived have unpredictable result. So was also with the British referendum when expectations were in an equilibrium condition, 50/50, but not those of whom the majority secretly thought were winners at all. In all honesty, many assumed what will turn out as in Greece - noise and vanity, and then everything is allowed as in the Hollywood movie - the truth wins. In this case shall win against a stability instinct, however, British went for demolition of the settled order. A similar story and with Trump. The same 50/50, and then a race are won by the candidate for whom least of all waited.

This is my long term view..

As a British citizen, I take grave exception to your characterization of the case before the supreme court.
The case is about the Rule of Law in our democracy and limitations on the Royal Prerogative.
Its about the nature of Democracy and the limitation of executive power.
The case in point is Brexit. But that iS NOT WHAT THIS IS ABOUT.

only thing I can say is no way ,high probability I'm right your wrong
assuming my chart data is correct

it is what it is
government make decisions on or behalf all the time I already said that to you including drawing us ever closer over the years