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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,961
  • Edited 12:55pm Dec 6, 2016 12:39pm | Edited 12:55pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well In my view we now see the short-term Time-frame with the daily time-frame coming in together. The current break-out to the south.... Lock, is this down-move corresponding with new money in your view.....?!
Quoting Lock
08:58 +1GMT Remember that 2673 is the monthly breakeven upside: I forgot to underline this very important fact here!
Quoting Lock
{quote} You underligned two overlapping daily balance: overall is a monthly balance and the breakeven is at 2673. So we are already in a break out. Now we could have 2 things here: continuation above breakeven in the direction of current rally or rejection above it and a correction downside back to the opposite side of the monthly bracket.
Quoting Lock
Inventories are horrendously too long right now: warch out! It could continue higher from here but only leaving downside a very dangerous mess of weak references.
Quoting Lock
16/12/06 TUESDAY 08:30+1GMT (edited untill 08:43) EARLY MORNING REPORT We are in the week following the weekly breakout from balance (25123 breakeven) and we are in an attempted monthly breakout above November breakeven at 2673. Price is in one timeframing higher mode during the last 5 days including today. And currently price is slightly above the half back (27115) of the entire move downside from 09.06 high: this level was very significant yesterday and price spent over there a lot of time. Now, as written previously, we could do 2 things: continue upwards above the monthly breakeven 2673 or fail above it and come back inside November aimining at the opposite side of its balance range (22043)
Quoting Lock
11:08 ... 13:19+1GMT We have now something like 38 hours of grinding higher price action without any meaningfull correction. Current GB has a poor high and current I period is at open. We got no acceptation back inside yesterday range nor above Tokyo high. The current range is very narrow.
19:39+1GMT
What we have seen today (and maybe more than this) is the liquidation of the incredible 2 days of grinding weak action upside: as written continuosly during the past 2 days, the upwards move was supported ond ruled only by weak hands and I expressed my perplexities about the risk involved in such a price location many times.

Note that current liquidation is also testing the monthly breakeven at 2673 that this morning and yesterday I stressed as our most important level in these days.

Now, it is a liquidation because it started leaving behind 2 back to back poor highs (GB 27744 and preUS 27688) and it has been a very fast and sharp move: this does not mean it cannot morph in something stronger if we find acceptation back inside November balance range. But for now it is a liquidation, clearly.
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  • #1,962
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:01pm Dec 6, 2016 1:01pm
20:01 +1GMT
If this liquidation will continue lower remember that the nearest composite poc downside is at 2615 and right below it we have Friday preUS poor low at 26127.

In order to have continuation we do not want to see the current minus development above G period fully retraced. The current double distribution profile could lead infact to continuation while if we will have a single distribution (filling the minus development up to 2702) the odds for continuation will clearly diminish substantially.

Note anyhow that a liquidation could last more then one single session. It could be partially retraced by the following one in order to correct inventories too short (just as an example) and then continue tomorrow with a further different session.
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  • #1,963
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:24pm Dec 6, 2016 1:24pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} WellIn my view we now see the short-term Time-frame with the daily time-frame coming in together. The current break-out to the south.... Lock, is this down-move corresponding with new money in your view.....?!
A liquidation could be done obviously also by short-term traders, so your hypothesis could be correct considering the location where this move started that is very normal for short-term. Surely the daytime frames are involved.

But consider that Short-term traders’ timeframe is normally 3-5 days or sometime more if the environment adapts to them. So in this case if we have short-term involved we should see this correction lasting for at least this amount of time. Let's see.
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  • #1,964
  • Edited 3:29pm Dec 6, 2016 2:23pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} A liquidation could be done obviously also by short-term traders, so your hypothesis could be correct considering the location where this move started that is very normal for short-term. Surely the daytime frames are involved. But consider that Short-term traders timeframe is normally 3-5 days or sometime more if the environment adapts to them. So in this case if we have short-term involved we should see this correction lasting for at least this amount of time. Let's see.
Thanks for your detailed analysis....

Indeed I suspect the move of today is the start of a new downtrend (short term time-frame). See my last chart for that.
I expect this while the HEW count and calculation is strongly suggesting this.... see my Short-term chart where I expect (at the moment) the +/- end of this move.

It then would be logical that if the MarketProfile is suggesting that other timeframe players are stepping in/stepping out. That this would be at the same area as HEW is suggesting. If this match there is a strong case.......that's why I'm so keen on the recognition of other timeframe players stepping in or stepping out!!

What I'm trying to do now is how can the MarketProfile support the HEW analysis in time so that I can anticipate with a better understanding and confidence at a better level.... and if HEW is wrong how can we see it as soon as possible so that we can stop the trade and correct the HEW count and anticipate agsain...(anyway that is far beyond this thread, but that's the goal I have with MarketProfile)

Anyway for now I'm in (from 1,2758 =>ps Ofcourse I'm not playing an eventually total down-move in one trade)....

Indeed let's see how it's continuing.......and thanks again! You really have a lot of MarketProfile Knowledge on board!! I have a long way to go.....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,965
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:05am Dec 7, 2016 1:05am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Thanks for your detailed analysis.... Indeed I suspect the move of today is the start of a new downtrend (short term time-frame). See my last chart for that. I expect this while the HEW count and calculation is strongly suggesting this.... see my Short-term chart where I expect (at the moment) the +/- end of this move. It then would be logical that if the MarketProfile is suggesting that other timeframe players are stepping in/stepping out. That this would be at the same area as HEW is suggesting. If this match there is a strong case.......that's...
First of all thank you again for your continuous support and for your kind words. About your attempt I do not want to interfere in your studies because maybe the correlation between HEW and what market generated information provide us could exists.
The fact is that JD told us many time that MGI (organized with the tool of the market profile) should embed any sort of market information, so the searching for a further tool providing the same information could be in the better case a surplus and in the worst a distracting activity.
Also, if you are studying then you should work exclusively on demo untill the results of your studies will be definitive and clear for you. Best L.
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  • #1,966
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:25am Dec 7, 2016 1:25am
16/12/07 WEDNESDAY 08:25+1GMT (edited untill 08:28)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday we saw the liquidation of the last 2 days of grinding price higher supported only by weak hands: note the "b" shape of the pit session profile. The liquidation left above 2 poor highs established by GB at 27744 and preUS at 27688. Also it left a minus development at 26822-2702 (note that tonight Sydney session high tagged exactly the low of this MD).

One of the purpose of the liquidation was also clearly the test of the monthly breakeven at 2673 that will remain our most important reference for today price action: the result of yesterday pit test provides acceptation back inside November range at least for now, but then we must see the reaction of today upcoming GB session to the US test: it could be accepted or rejected considering that the participants to GB sessions are different to those who operate in pit sessions. So let's see.

Note that current Tokyo session developed below this important level and that it is currently inside the old GB gap upside from 12.01 GB high at 26305 to G12.02 GB session low at 2691: right now all the yesterday pit session plus the current Tokyo session have built a huge gap downside from yesterday GB balance range low at 2735.
So we could have some possibilities here:

  1. GB will open below the old gap upside 26305-2691 and in this case this gap will become a double pass gap.
  2. GB will open inside it and in this case we will have a part of it becoming double pass and an other part remaining a single pass upside.
  3. GB will open above it and in this case we will have a GB session between 2 gaps, one downside (the new one from yesterday GB low) and the old one from 12.01 GB high.

Price is currently between the 2 main composite pocs at 2730 (above) and 2615 (below): these levels could attract price. Right below the lower one we got the old preUS poor low at 26127: so in the case price will reach the lower poc we could expect also a correction of this weak US reference.

I'm currently neutral about the situation because I need confirmation about the monthly breakeven level before to understand if the yesterday liquidation could eventually morph in something bigger downside or if it will remain only a liquidation and eventually price action will retrace it in order to continue the previous monthly breakout.

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  • #1,967
  • Dec 7, 2016 2:18am Dec 7, 2016 2:18am
Quoting Lock
16/12/07 WEDNESDAY 08:25+1GMT (edited untill 08:28) EARLY MORNING REPORT ....Price is currently between the 2 main composite pocs at 2730 (above) and 2615 (below): these levels could attract price. Right below the lower one we got the old preUS poor low at 26127: so in the case price will reach the lower poc we could expect also a correction of this weak US reference. ....
09:18+1GMT
Tagged at the pip. Note that GB open below the old GB gap upside so now that gap plus the new one downside made a DOUBLE PASS GAP. Note also that in USD we have currently a TRIPLE PASS GAP.
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  • #1,968
  • Dec 7, 2016 3:02am Dec 7, 2016 3:02am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 09:18+1GMT Tagged at the pip. Note that GB open below the old GB gap upside so now that gap plus the new one downside made a DOUBLE PASS GAP. Note also that in USD we have currently a TRIPLE PASS GAP.
10:02+1GMT
A went down again to take it out. Then backinside Tokyo range: now B period is inside A. We could have a break from here: to fill the douuble pass gap up to 2691* or downside to continue with the liquidation started yesterday.

*and to test the monthly breakeven at 2673!
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  • #1,969
  • Dec 7, 2016 3:07am Dec 7, 2016 3:07am
10:07+1GMT
Note that in the eventuality of a full short covering we could also retrace the entire new gap downside and then take out yesterday GB session poor high at 27744. I know that it is a hell of a move to do this and that is extremely rare to retrace such an huge gap the same day it has been established but, even if not so probable, is clearly a possibility if we found acceptation above the monthly breakeven.
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  • #1,970
  • Edited 3:20am Dec 7, 2016 3:10am | Edited 3:20am
10:10+1GMT
if instead we will continue downside with the liquidation we have space down to the next major composite poc at 24169: also in this case it is a hell of a move and maybe it will be splitted in multiple sessions*. But this is possible only if we will get acceptation below the monthly brekeven.

*in this eventuality a first pause could be the last weekly breakeven at 25122.
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  • #1,971
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:18am Dec 7, 2016 4:18am
Watch out if it will fill the D minus development up to 26095.
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  • #1,972
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:29am Dec 7, 2016 4:29am
11:29+1GMT (edit 11:32)
I'll be off for a while but carry forward the following information: D period high is at open 2632, E period high is at November GB highest close 2604, Tokyo O and P periods were at previous Tokyo HB 2665, as Tokyo H I J K periods were at previous Tokyo HB 2659, Tokyo high is poor at 2672, yesterday GB session high is poor 27744 as yesterday preUS high at 27688.
It can continue lower because for now we have a double distribution plus a huge gap downside but remember that this is a liquidation for now and if it will close the minus development up to 26095 all the weaknesses above will come back in the game.
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  • #1,973
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:34am Dec 7, 2016 4:34am
GB is in one timeframing lower for now.
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  • #1,974
  • Dec 7, 2016 8:13am Dec 7, 2016 8:13am
15:13+1GMT

PreUS is currently building a gap downside for upcoming pit session: if the gap will be and if it will not be retraced quickly we could have continuation downside. In this case remember the DOUBLE PASS GAP at 25255-25595. Then downside ther is weekly breakeven at 25122 and far below that the main composite poc at 24169.

If we will not have gap or if we will have the possible new pit gap downside retraced quickly, remember all the weak references left by today GB and Tokyo sessions and the yesterday poor high for prUS at 27688 and for GB at 27744. Obviously upside the main ref is the monthly breakeven at 2673.

Note that the nearest composite poc is close to current price location at 2612: it could attract price as normal. Also current price location is right above the highest close of November for pit session at 25965: a test of this level is very possible.
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  • #1,975
  • Dec 8, 2016 12:10am Dec 8, 2016 12:10am
Quoting Lock
11:29+1GMT (edit 11:32) I'll be off for a while but carry forward the following information: D period high is at open 2632, E period high is at November GB highest close 2604, Tokyo O and P periods were at previous Tokyo HB 2665, as Tokyo H I J K periods were at previous Tokyo HB 2659, Tokyo high is poor at 2672, yesterday GB session high is poor 27744 as yesterday preUS high at 27688. It can continue lower because for now we have a double distribution plus a huge gap downside but remember that...

After pit session open we observed a test below overnight low (GB low 25773) and then the start of a short covering that continued without interruptions untill Tokyo A period tonight. Most of the closest weak references left above have been removed by this very grinding short covering.
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  • #1,976
  • Edited 12:50am Dec 8, 2016 12:20am | Edited 12:50am
16/12/08 THURSDAY 07:20+1GMT (edited untill 07:50)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

This month is up and down the November breakeven at 2673: so technically we are still probing that level in order to evaluate the failure or the success of this break out. Note that if it will definitively fail the natural target is at the opposite side of the November balance (meaning November low at 22043).

In the weekly timeframe we are in an attempted breakout above 11.20 week balance where the break even is at 25122. The first week after the break already closed above that level so if also this week will close above it we could consider the break as a success.

On the daily timeframe we were in one timeframing higher mode for 5 days before yesterday: but yesterday session interrupted the positive sequence removing the last two days' lows and tagging the 12.02 low (Tokyo low 25693). Now we could read yesterday action in two ways: the continuation of Tuesday liquidation or the start of something more downside. In my opinion we saw only liquidation, at least for now.

Sessions:
Yesterday GB session open below Tuesday GB session low with a huge new gap downside and this zone is now a double pass gap because it overlapped the old gap upside from 12.02: then also current Tokyo session is overlapping the lower extreme of this double pass gap.
Unless a huge Tokyo liquidation made in its last 2 periods, GB could open above yesterday GB session range (above 26422) or inside it (25773-26422). Note also that tonight Tokyo session also averlapped the new pit gap downside (26272-26557).

Overall is a very confusing situation and my suggestion is to monitor for weekly and monthly references without focusing too much on the smaller timeframes: the most important references to monitor, I repeat it here, are: the monthly breakeven at 2673 and the weekly breakeven at 25122. Then the 3 closest composite pocs: below 2612 and 2417, while above 2730.
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  • #1,977
  • Dec 8, 2016 2:52am Dec 8, 2016 2:52am
Quoting Lock
16/12/08 THURSDAY 07:20+1GMT (edited untill 07:50) EARLY MORNING REPORT ....Overall is a very confusing situation and my suggestion is to monitor for weekly and monthly references without focusing too much on the smaller timeframes: the most important references to monitor, I repeat it here, are: the monthly breakeven at 2673 and the weekly breakeven at 25122. Then the 3 closest composite pocs: below 2612 and 2417, while above 2730.

09:52+1GMT GB testing now monthly breakeven 2673. Note that below that we have yesterday Tokyo poor high.
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  • #1,978
  • Dec 8, 2016 2:55am Dec 8, 2016 2:55am
09:55
Note that GB left downside its low tagging Sydney low 26155 and B period low at initial HB 2631: so this is clearly a short covering for now. Let's see.
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  • #1,979
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:00am Dec 8, 2016 3:00am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 09:52+1GMT GB testing now monthly breakeven 2673. Note that below that we have yesterday Tokyo poor high.

Note the berfect TAG of B period high...
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  • #1,980
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:09am Dec 8, 2016 3:09am
In USDX we got a 4 pass gap above current price location: it is extremely rare to have a similar zone untested 4 times in a row. (100.35 zone)
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