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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,941
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:44am Dec 5, 2016 7:44am
I'm still expecting a down-move seen from the Short-term Auction....

Well ofcourse this is my interpretation...in combination with my HEW.
I'm trying to catch the down-move which I think is coming around this level....

I'm still not confortable with breakets but I think around here is somewhere a bracket for starting a new short-term down-move
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,942
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:45am Dec 5, 2016 7:45am
Please note: Sydney, Tokyo and GB, for all these sessions range = initial balance. No bigger timeframe then daily in any of these sessions!
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  • #1,943
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:47am Dec 5, 2016 7:47am
Quoting HappyMe
I'm still expecting a down-move seen from the Short-term Auction.... Well ofcourse this is my interpretation...in combination with my HEW. I'm trying to catch the down-move which I think is coming around this level.... I'm still not confortable with breakets but I think around here is somewhere a bracket for starting a new short-term down-move {image} {image}

I'm waiting for a possible correction too but I do not like this market at all for now. I do not like current high. Let's see above it if it reaches it.
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  • #1,944
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:47am Dec 5, 2016 7:47am
Quoting HappyMe
I'm still expecting a down-move seen from the Short-term Auction.... Well ofcourse this is my interpretation...in combination with my HEW. I'm trying to catch the down-move which I think is coming around this level.... I'm still not confortable with breakets but I think around here is somewhere a bracket for starting a new short-term down-move {image} {image}
Lock,

Can you confirm that you see some balance into the MarketProfile in the blue circle below.... if this is true (and I think so) then we can expect a breakout from this balance (and yes my favor in that case is a down-move....)
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,945
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:59am Dec 5, 2016 7:59am
In the last 16 hours market is grind higher: very ugly market.
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  • #1,946
  • Dec 5, 2016 8:02am Dec 5, 2016 8:02am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Lock, Can you confirm that you see some balance into the MarketProfile in the blue circle below.... if this is true (and I think so) then we can expect a breakout from this balance (and yes my favor in that case is a down-move....) {image}

You underligned two overlapping daily balance: overall is a monthly balance and the breakeven is at 2673. So we are already in a break out. Now we could have 2 things here: continuation above breakeven in the direction of current rally or rejection above it and a correction downside back to the opposite side of the monthly bracket.
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  • #1,947
  • Dec 5, 2016 8:04am Dec 5, 2016 8:04am
preUS C period low= open + HB
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  • #1,948
  • Dec 5, 2016 8:11am Dec 5, 2016 8:11am
Inventories are horrendously too long right now: warch out! It could continue higher from here but only leaving downside a very dangerous mess of weak references.
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  • #1,949
  • Dec 5, 2016 8:13am Dec 5, 2016 8:13am
Quoting Lock
Inventories are horrendously too long right now: warch out! It could continue higher from here but only leaving downside a very dangerous mess of weak references.

The only way to possibly skip weaknesses left downside is a new gap upside for pit session eventually built by current C period.
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  • #1,950
  • Dec 5, 2016 8:18am Dec 5, 2016 8:18am
Conflicting information: inventories too long and pit session that is probably going to open above Friday spike base. Note that right now we are exactly at "unchanged" price of Friday pit session (27294). Plus we are right below the nearest composite poc at 2733. When you are so close to a big composite poc the possibilities are two: crossing above it fastly or remaining attracted by it. A fast cross could lead to a reaction in the opposite direction or a continuation above the poc.
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  • #1,951
  • Dec 5, 2016 9:41am Dec 5, 2016 9:41am
16:41+1GMT
ugly market: poor high at 27312. Now we got 2 back to back poor highs for pit sessions.
Current C low is weak at preUS open.
Also current B low tagged the pre US low: weak too here.
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  • #1,952
  • Dec 5, 2016 9:51am Dec 5, 2016 9:51am
16:51+1GMT
Well I saw right now that Carney will speak at 18:00 +1GMT: I think that this market was already very weak (from Friday at least) but probably this new speach created even more lack of participation.
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  • #1,953
  • Dec 5, 2016 10:01am Dec 5, 2016 10:01am
current D high at B low. 2 BtB poor highs. But C low at cluster round 2700
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  • #1,954
  • Dec 5, 2016 10:25am Dec 5, 2016 10:25am
17:24+1GMt
Almost unexperienced weakness here: double poor high in the last 2 sessions and a poor low here, extremely narrow range and weak references everywhere.
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  • #1,955
  • Dec 5, 2016 10:29am Dec 5, 2016 10:29am
It could do a lot of things here but unfortunately I'm now too tired to trade. So I'm off. See you tomorrow. Best L.
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  • #1,956
  • Dec 5, 2016 12:26pm Dec 5, 2016 12:26pm
Quoting Lock
16:41+1GMT ugly market: poor high at 27312. Now we got 2 back to back poor highs for pit sessions. Current C low is weak at preUS open. Also current B low tagged the pre US low: weak too here.
Quoting Lock
current D high at B low. 2 BtB poor highs. But C low at cluster round 2700

19:26+1GMT
Just an update, as an observer: Cluster at 2700 taken out after a lot of efforts, then short covering to take out also the 2 back to back poor highs.

The difficult thing of this session was the lack of participation of bigger timeframes and the consequent very slow movements of price: a session like this needed a lot of patience and unfortunately this is not one of my qualities (patience I mean)
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  • #1,957
  • Edited 1:43am Dec 6, 2016 1:30am | Edited 1:43am
16/12/06 TUESDAY 08:30+1GMT (edited untill 08:43)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in the week following the weekly breakout from balance (25123 breakeven) and we are in an attempted monthly breakout above November breakeven at 2673. Price is in one timeframing higher mode during the last 5 days including today. And currently price is slightly above the half back (27115) of the entire move downside from 09.06 high: this level was very significant yesterday and price spent over there a lot of time.

Now, as written previously, we could do 2 things: continue upwards above the monthly breakeven 2673 or fail above it and come back inside November aimining at the opposite side of its balance range (22043)

In a narrower perspective current price location is slightly above yesterday GB session high 2743, and again, 2 things could happen:

  1. open above it with a gap and try to continue higher if the possible gap will not be retraced quickly or come back inside Gb session, if the gap is retraced, aiming at the bottom of it 2691.
  2. ...or open inside yesterday GB range without gap higher: in this case the presence of a big composite poc at 2730 could force price to balance again. At least initially.

As previously written I think that the current "all time" USDX high is not particularly good as it has been established by a non pit session. So after current liquidation we could experience a rally in order to eventually put a good pit high above current one. In this case cable could be influenced by this rally (in the opposite way).
Note that all this move upside is particularly weak as it is grinding upwards at least from last Friday without any meaningfull correction downside. So it's risky: this does not mean it cannot continue higher it only means that it is currently supported by weak hands. So watch out.

Note that the most important level upside is the higher monthly bracket low at 27948. And this level is inside the old GB gap downside at 27883-28452

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  • #1,958
  • Dec 6, 2016 4:08am Dec 6, 2016 4:08am
11:08
The new gap upside has been filled: now for any meaningfull continuation downside we need acceptation inside yesterday GB range, meaning below 27435. If not note that GB left above a poor high at 27745: carry this info forward in case of failure downside.

12:02+1GMT

Price is glued to open. But we got F period inside E: possible breakout from here.

13:19+1GMT
We have now something like 38 hours of grinding higher price action without any meaningfull correction. Current GB has a poor high and current I period is at open. We got no acceptation back inside yesterday range nor above Tokyo high. The current range is very narrow.
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  • #1,959
  • Dec 6, 2016 6:40am Dec 6, 2016 6:40am
What a rickety market! It's a real pain to trade cable in the last months.
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  • #1,960
  • Edited 12:22pm Dec 6, 2016 12:03pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting HappyMe
I'm still expecting a down-move seen from the Short-term Auction.... Well ofcourse this is my interpretation...in combination with my HEW. I'm trying to catch the down-move which I think is coming around this level.... I'm still not confortable with breakets but I think around here is somewhere a bracket for starting a new short-term down-move {image} {image}
Well In my view we now see the short-term Time-frame with the daily time-frame coming in together. The current break-out to the south....

Lock, is this down-move corresponding with new money in your view.....?!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
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