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BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

  • #521
  • Dec 6, 2016 6:44am Dec 6, 2016 6:44am
As I say you need to open up the view to come to conclusion ,the court thing is all part of it

Quoting cliffedwards
@Bones.. I invited you to layout in your next post a Brexit strategy for going forward... that we can all appreciate, examine and dissect.. And that recognises the realities of the world in 2016.?? I and most others are here to discuss fundamental economic and technical market issues and not political ones. Now you feel up to that? Or not?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #522
  • Dec 6, 2016 6:50am Dec 6, 2016 6:50am
Quoting cliffedwards
FLASH... Ive not posted here for some weeks because however interesting exchanges here have been.. The have almost ALL been OFF SUBJECT in terms of the purpose and declared focus of this thread. So now lets try to get back to what we started out to do here..? {quote} Yep.. looking back I see that whats has happened in the last 500 posts .. have been some very interesting and for the most part well researched and argued exchanges that I have learned from and perhaps some others too. Problem is that in practically none we have we focused on...
This is a great idea for a thread... but I fear that posters will be analysing the situation through vastly different conscious or subconscious (mostly subconscious) market models. You'll all reject each others judgements if they don't accord with your own, and unless your market model is explicit you'll have no way to evaluate your own opinions or those of others.

- How will Brexit affect the Banking sector?
- How will Brexit/UK be affected by Trumps policies? Will they help, hinder, or be neutral to the UKs economy.
- How will the currency be affected by Brexit?
- How will the housing market be affected by Brexit?
- Etc,

Now lets forget about brexit for a second and see if we know the answers to these questions...

- What are the effects on a countries banking sector of a country leaving a politico-economic union?
- What are the effects on a country of another countries trade policies?
- How does a currency react to it's country leaving a politico-economic union?
- How will a countries housing market be affected by it's leaving of a politico-economic union?

To move forwards with this discussion you need to flesh out the answers to the last set of questions, IMO. It might take a while but you need to be systematic.

EDIT: This is more about general economics and banking than Brexit in particular.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #523
  • Edited 7:53am Dec 6, 2016 7:08am | Edited 7:53am
you can see no recession in UK since vote ,experts miles out
Brits don't actually care at all take a look last retail sales
all bad not necessarily ,I see UK higher rates and the rate reduction major mistake over reaction
fuelling inflation

You have to understand that high ,to think it will go back over it
only forward wind time will prove the outcome I'm confident to come back to this chart then
that Quarterly I posted will print bear ,based off monthly now

My point again is Brexit end result could and has so far been superseded by other events



Quoting Bones
only thing I can say is no way ,high probability I'm right your wrong assuming my chart data is correct {quote}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP 2 (DFB).png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 29 Nov 2016 10-28-07.png Size: 33 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #524
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:00am Dec 6, 2016 8:00am
Quoting cliffedwards
@Bones.. I invited you to layout in your next post a Brexit strategy for going forward... that we can all appreciate, examine and dissect.. And that recognises the realities of the world in 2016.?? I and most others are here to discuss fundamental economic and technical market issues and not political ones. Now you feel up to that? Or not?

So you going to take up the challenge of producing an achievable economic Brexit vision for our country on not?
You are invited now 3 times.. and all we get is same-old same-old..
  • #525
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:03am Dec 6, 2016 8:03am
well I think I have show me your vision ill know what you mean

Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} So you going to take up the challenge of producing an achievable economic Brexit vision for our country on not? You are invited now 3 times.. and all we get is same-old same-old..
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #526
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:05am Dec 6, 2016 8:05am
Are you guys looking at Brexit through a Keynesian or Austrian looking-glass? You might ignore my comments but this is important.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #527
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:09am Dec 6, 2016 8:09am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} This is a great idea for a thread... but I fear that posters will be analysing the situation through vastly different conscious or subconscious (mostly subconscious) market models. You'll all reject each others judgements if they don't accord with your own, and unless your market model is explicit you'll have no way to evaluate your own opinions or those of others. - How will Brexit affect the Banking sector? - How will Brexit/UK be affected by Trumps policies? Will they help, hinder, or be neutral to the UKs economy. - How will the currency...
And to expand...

- What kind of politico-economic union is the EU?
- What effects did the EU have on the UK assets and currency during membership?
- Is the BOE political? Does the BOE have private motives?

If we can't answer these questions, we can't make progress in this thread.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #528
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:10am Dec 6, 2016 8:10am
we are here to make money what would be really interesting is you apply your vision to a relevant FX chart ,whats the effect of that vision in your mind

Quoting Bones
well I think I have show me your vision ill know what you mean {quote}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #529
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:12am Dec 6, 2016 8:12am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} This is a great idea for a thread... but I fear that posters will be analysing the situation through vastly different conscious or subconscious (mostly subconscious) market models. You'll all reject each others judgements if they don't accord with your own, and unless your market model is explicit you'll have no way to evaluate your own opinions or those of others. - How will Brexit affect the Banking sector? - How will Brexit/UK be affected by Trumps policies? Will they help, hinder, or be neutral to the UKs economy. - How will the currency...
Thank you for your interest and contribution..
Your profile is impressive. I particularly like your "biography" entry.
Your suggestions and lateral approach is seminal to achievement of a fruitful discussion.
Please contribute further. IMHO the subject deserves rational discussion.
  • #530
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:19am Dec 6, 2016 8:19am
fundamentalists don't post charts that my observation ,but they chat a good job

Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} And to expand... - What kind of politico-economic union is the EU? - What effects did the EU have on the UK assets and currency during membership? - Is the BOE political? Does the BOE have private motives? If we can't answer these questions, we can't make progress in this thread.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #531
  • Edited 8:57am Dec 6, 2016 8:26am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting Bones
well I think I have show me your vision ill know what you mean {quote}
That you response? ROFL.
I ask you now 4 times..
"So you going to take up the challenge of producing an achievable economic Brexit vision for our country on not?
You are invited now 3 times.. and all we get is same-old same-old..

Blah Blah Blah.. same-old, same-old.. bit like the government.. Brexit means Brexit.

To clarify.. this thread is not focused on short term moves in GBP. Your attempt to divert from the invitation made,
by suddenly focusing your responses on short term exchange rate consequences is misplaced.
The place for these comments and you charts is here: Cable Update (GBPUSD) : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10378&page=22317

This thread is focused on where the UK economy goes from here. What the strategy for a successful Brexit might be.
What the economic issues and social consequences of Brexit on our UK economy will be in the event of different strategies and outcomes..
Only from a consensus on this may any understanding of longer term exchange rate consequences emerge.

/endof
  • #532
  • Dec 6, 2016 8:47am Dec 6, 2016 8:47am
Honestly cliff I'm not ducking it ,I just don't know how you want it presented ,lead the way ...
don't worry Im always posting ideas ,I'm thinking I'm raising a good point for all fundamentalists if you want anyone to believe it can be done
post the actual consequences that matter to a trader
ill wait or just not bother you further
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #533
  • Dec 6, 2016 9:20am Dec 6, 2016 9:20am
Quoting Bones
Honestly cliff I'm not ducking it ,I just don't know how you want it presented ,lead the way ... don't worry Im always posting ideas ,I'm thinking I'm raising a good point for all fundamentalists if you want anyone to believe it can be done post the actual consequences that matter to a trader ill wait or just not bother you further
It seems like the OP wants some meat on the bones of Technical analysis that you're providing. He wants a fundamental based and reasoned discussion about the effects and substance of Brexit, as relates to the markets. Not... "I don't think the Euro will appreciate against the GBP until this trandline is broken".
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #534
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:47am Dec 6, 2016 10:47am
well I'm thinking I already put the meat on it ,ok its similar to before but then its the same subject
the changes that have occurred have only gone and supported that view
Ive posted a Q chart EG so from now I'm looking 4 months view can anyone look further I wonder given all the possibilities
im interested in how else to wrap it
going much further I'm questioning the very existence of EU without change ,then why worry Brexit

Quoting Leonlorenzo
{quote} It seems like the OP wants some meat on the bones of Technical analysis that you're providing. He wants a fundamental based and reasoned discussion about the effects and substance of Brexit, as relates to the markets. Not... "I don't think the Euro will appreciate against the GBP until this trandline is broken".
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #535
  • Dec 6, 2016 12:55pm Dec 6, 2016 12:55pm
Here we go, let's discuss along these lines...

We have three possibilities, either (a) Brexit, (b) Bremain or (c) Brompromise (Feel free to think of a better name for option "c" )

(a) Brexit - Definition - A trading relationship under WTO rules, without the free movement of people, and without any political/public transfer of funds to the EU. Laws are not made by the EU.

(b) Bremain - Definition - A continuation of the status quo, with Free movement of people, transfers of funds to the EU, and common standards of goods. Laws are made by the EU.

(c) Brompromise - Definition - A hybrid of Brexit and Bremain that involves either FMOP (free movement of people), transfers of public funds, superiority of EU law, etc.

Please feel free to add to these definitions. What we'll do once we have a clear idea of what each option is (or could be), then we'll start looking under the bonnet at the moving parts.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #536
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:06pm Dec 6, 2016 1:06pm
Once we are clear on the definitions of each, then we can look at the ways in-which different "actors" will be effected, based on their interests.

Let's also draw up a list of actors...

- BOE
- UK Consumers
- EU Consumers
- IMF
- US Gov
- FED
- UK Gov
- EU
- EU States
- UK Corporations
- EU Corps
- US Corps
- etc.

Please help me with this list too.

EDIT: Let's be really anal about this. When we have definitions for each possible state of the UK, and a list of the players, we can trace how each of the players will be effected by the form of the changes made. If we know how the players will be effected, we can deduce their responses, and then we trade based on that information. Sounding boring enough yet?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #537
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:10pm Dec 6, 2016 1:10pm
Leonlorenzo:

You have asked very interesting and important questions. My knowledge does not allow me to provide those answers. Despite relevance for the topic, would you be so kind and type your opinion in a brief form to all the questions you have posed? Your answers will be much appreciated. Thank you.
  • #538
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:17pm Dec 6, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting paka
Leonlorenzo: You have asked very interesting and important questions. My knowledge does not allow me to provide those answers. Despite relevance for the topic, would you be so kind and type your opinion in a brief form to all the questions you have posed? Your answers will be much appreciated. Thank you.
Hi Paka,

I don't have any opinion yet. I'm just working through the problem now on the forum. I'm waiting for other posters to put in the effort and engage in the discussion so we can move toward a better understanding of the situation.

If we want to reverse engineer a car, we take it apart. Let's take this whole situation apart!

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #539
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:23pm Dec 6, 2016 1:23pm
its not boring actually seems quite structured line of thinking
I would say I think May is intent on a Brexit and believes theres a deal with regard trade within that regardless of the talking heads in EU
it makes business sense for us all
it might not make such political sense ,but then that depends on EUs position going forward >Eu can not afford another country wobble
If May loses the court situ she could be forced to a election or maybe a light bill thats my understandings Parliament are not against triggering 50
Its my belief the referendum would be re enforced and May would win


Quoting Leonlorenzo
Once we are clear on the definitions of each, then we can look at the ways in-which different "actors" will be effected, based on their interests. Let's also draw up a list of actors... - BOE - UK Consumers - EU Consumers - IMF - US Gov - FED - UK Gov - EU - EU States - UK Corporations - EU Corps - US Corps - etc. Please help me with this list too. EDIT: Let's be really anal about this. When we have definitions for each possible state of the UK, and a list of the players, we can trace how each of the players will be effected by the form...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #540
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:40pm Dec 6, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting Bones
its not boring actually seems quite structured line of thinking I would say I think May is intent on a Brexit and believes theres a deal with regard trade within that regardless of the talking heads in EU it makes business sense for us all it might not make such political sense ,but then that depends on EUs position going forward >Eu can not afford another country wobble If May loses the court situ she could be forced to a election or maybe a light bill thats my understandings Parliament are not against triggering 50 Its my belief the referendum...
Thanks I love being told that I'm not boring people as much as I suspect I am.

So we can distil your comment to...
1. May is in favour of leaving the EU.
2. It is in the EU's favour to pursue free trade with the UK, without any obligations on the UK's part.
3. The EU is damaged with each country that leaves the union.
4. If the Supreme Court rules that May doesn't have the authority to trigger article 50, a snap election could be called.
5. Parliament are in favour of triggering article 50, so if it was put to a vote then the vote would be in favour of it.

Have I got that right?
Living the adventure in my head.
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