Financial Markets Observatory Lab

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' after two face to face in TV.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an up-date of the analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' after the second face to face in TV, according to the graphical methods used in the first curve analysis (#1).

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to previous (n.165; n.173; n.174; n.177) posts, the structure of aggregated polls, until to september first face to face, shows a continuous decreasing spread ''Clinton-Trump'', with Trump consensus in continuation increase (see also curve analysis: #1). The sample of polls of September 1-15, showed a local important increase in Trump consensus in 14 & 15 Sept. polls.
The decreasing spread ''Clinton vs. Trump'' observed until August (#1) shows an important stop during the phase between two face to face.
Clinton consensus trend, shows a new local top in Autumn, well above Summer top, but below the key top of April 2016. The consensus curve of Clinton now is above the main descending trend-line, and it is a very important first sign-signal (yellow circle) for a reversal structure of Clinton consensus trend. The blue-area is the consensus-level zone (set-up), that Clinton curve do not breaks in order to win this competition.
Yellow circle on Clinton chart is linked to two descending tops of Trump curve ''Summer > Autumn'', with a local SellOff of curve in the phase of two face to face. The main ascending trend of Trump curve is intact, bat now there is a key test of the local ascending trend-line from June 2016. The pink area is the critical elements for Trump curve evolution:
consensus curve well above this area is very favorable for Trump win probability;
consensus curve well below this pink area, is a dangerous and definitive(???) bad signal for Trump consensus;
consensus curve below the violet zone, will pull the consensus until bottom area or below.
The spread curve ''Clinton vs. Trump'' evolution shows a decreasing pattern until to Summer (III week of September), according to previous analysis (#1). The start of Autumn shows the ascending cross of the main trend-line and a local chart-structure with a possible bullish-action (favorable to Clinton). In blue there is the critical zone linked to blue zone of Clinton consensus chart.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Space budgets of some OECD countries: 2015 vs. 2010.

☒ Aim of the post.
According to OECD papers, this is the histogram-map (FB source), of some OECD countries in GDP percentage in Space R&D.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ OECD.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Space R&D scientific papers production of some OECD countries: 2045 vs. 2000.

☒ Aim of the post.
According to OECD papers, this is the histogram-map (FB source), of some OECD countries in Space R&D scientific paper production (see also GDP budget).

☒ Chart sources.
❖ OECD.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: a view on seasonal behaviours (20 years).

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest [Sx-shoulder, 7 weeks, 37.75$-50.92$; Head, 36 weeks, 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$, 24.87$ area; numerical up-target 75.79$, or percentage down target 13.33$ as loss of 48.8% from head-low -- see also n.180].
In the present study there is a short up-date of the seasonal behaviour of WTI, BRENT (20 years) and OVX (CBOE volatility of USO ETF; 9 years).
These posts (previous & next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to attached charts (see also WTI personal studies in #1) there are the following elements:
-) WTI shows very negative seasonal performances in October and November (good for bullish action).
-) Brent shows very negative seasonal performances in September and November-December (neutral).
-) Main exporters shows an important increase 2014 vs. 2016 (bad for bullish action).
-) October WTI monthly price shows an horrible(?) candle, with an important touch on 24 monthly exp.average (first time from July.2014; good for a key reversal of main trend).
-) OIL USO ETF volatility shows a seasonal behaviour with a safe(?) zone in autumn-winter for WTI price (good for bullish action).
Is this phase a consolidation zone pre-bullish action obove the neck-level, or is this a re-start of the main bearish trend???
A key-price levels is the 50% of head and the base of sx-shoulder (WTI, 37.8-38.5 about).

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts; FreeStockCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' of last 6 months, after the new Clinton scandal.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an up-date of the analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' after the recent new scandal of Clinton, according to the graphical methods used in the first curve analysis (#1) [see also previous posts: n.165; n.173; n.174; n.177; n.181).

☒ Graphical Elements.
After the new scandal of Clinton e-mails, Trump shows an important skyrocket of consensus curve, with only -2% of spread. Trump curve shows also a preliminar breaks of the link between the previous two tops of the 6 months curve; this is a possible start for an attractor of consensus inside the undecided.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: analysis of poll sources from September to now.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an analysis of the sources of polls from 01 September, in order to shows the origin of Trump wins.
See also the first analysis of aggregated polls (#1), and the review of my posts.

☒ Graphical Elements.
From 01 September to now, RealClearPolitics (see slide) shows 86 polls from 25 sources.
Trump wins are 11 (12.8%) with 3 only sources (12.0%).
It is very interesting to observe that poll souces of Trump wins is 9/11 from LATimes/USCTracking, and only 1/11 both for FoxNews and CNN/ORC.
Are these polls (Trump wins) credible???

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: current situation based on 3 poll trackers.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an about complete up-date of ''Clinton vs. Trump'' according 3 poll-trackers.
See also the first analysis of aggregated polls (#1), and the review of my posts.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to RealClearPolitics, the spread ''Clinton-Trump'' shows a continuation decrease in this fort week of November, but again positive for Clinton (+1.6%).
The trend of consensus curve from June of two candidated shows about the same values of the previous post (Nov.01: n.185).
The puzzle map of States shows a little advantage for Trump (confirmed by FiveThirtyEight).
According to FiveThirtyEight, the spread ''Clinton-Trump'' is about 2X of RealClearPolitics, or 3.0%, but CNN reported a spread of 4%.
Data from States map vs. electroral & popular votes are not aligned.
Now Clinton is the probable winner, as we can see from the two types of votes (spread: 1.6-4.0%); undecided are about 10% again!!!

☒ Chart sources.
❖ CNN; FiveThirtyEight; RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: financial underlyings and European preferences.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some slides from Statista on the financial underlyings the two main candidates, and the European preferences. Data are very interesting in order to know the underlyings of the evolution of this Presidential election.
See also the first analysis of aggregated polls (#1), and the review of my posts.

☒ Graphical Elements.
See attached slides.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ Statista.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: Silicon Valley preferences.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a slides from Statista on the preferences of Silicon Valley. Data are very interesting in order to know the underlyings of the evolution of this Presidential election.
See also the first analysis of aggregated polls (#1), and the review of my posts.

☒ Graphical Elements.
See attached slides.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ Statista.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: pre-election update of spread Clinton vs. Trump.

☒ Aim of the post.
there is an about complete up-date of ''Clinton vs. Trump'' spread in these two days pre-elections.
See also the first analysis of aggregated polls (#1), and the review of my posts.

☒ Graphical Elements.
In these last hours pre-elections, the spread Clinton vs. Trump shows a little increase.
According to these sources, it is very probable Clinton win, but there are an about 7-10% of undecided.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ Statista.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: a final view on consensus trend curve and spread ''Clinton vs. Trump''.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a final up-date of ''Clinton vs. Trump'' consensus curves and spread, according to graphical methods of first analysis of aggregated polls (#1).
See also the review of my previos posts (Academia LINK).

☒ Graphical Elements.
In these last hours pre-elections, the spread Clinton vs. Trump shows a new but important increase, toward 3% and more.
Clinton stopped its decrease of consensus curve.
Trump, after the skyrocket of '''e-mail gate'', do not increase its position, but there is a local selloff of curve, with values well below the previous tops from July 2016.
Trump consensus curve do not confirm the winning behaviour above its (dotted) line linking tops from July (see also the spread in November).
Clinton stopped its decrease, with spread at 3-4%.
Also in November, the only source data polls positive for Trump is LATimes/USCTracking.
According to these data, it is very probable Clinton win, but there are an about 7% of undecided.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: a final view of poll trackers.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an interesting slide from Statista.
See also the review of my previous posts (Academia LINK).

☒ Graphical Elements.
See the attached slide►►

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics - Statista.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: who lost these elections?

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is the about complete data of these US presidential Election from RealClearPolitics.
See also the review of my previous posts (Academia LINK).

☒ Graphical Elements.
See the attached slide►►

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

US Presidentials: qualitative comparation between US Uncertainty Policy Indexes vs. US election of Nov.2016.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a qualitative comparation between the Uncertainty Policy Index of US (two index-formats) vs. US presidential Election in 2016, according to BrExit post.
See also the review of my previous posts on these US elections (Academia LINK).

☒ Graphical Elements.
Local 2015 (IV quarter) & 2016 levels of the two formats of Uncertainty Policy US Index, shows that Trump win was not a remote probability, according to uncertainty of 2016 vs. previous chart benchmarks (see circled zone and key descending lines) from 2008.
In fact Trump was considered leading to instability and political uncertainty.
The long term curves shows that Trump win has about the same impact of Obama (double) win on US political stability.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: a view on US Oil Rig Counts.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016). In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest [Sx-shoulder, 7 weeks, 37.75$-50.92$; Head, 36 weeks, 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$, 24.87$ area; numerical up-target 75.79$, or percentage down target 13.33$ as loss of 48.8% from head-low -- see also the review].
In the present study there is a short view on the US OIL Rig Count from data base of BakerHughes, compared to WTI OIL curve.
These posts (previous & next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to attached charts (see also WTI personal studies in #01, and review of the local graphical contest in #02) there are the following elements:
-) US Rig Counts shows in 2016, the first important local reversal from the key SellOff of 2014, with a stop of decrease above the base of the previous top 2000-2008.
-) WTI price curve shows an interesting inside monthly bar (August 2016).
-) October WTI monthly price shows an horrible(?) candle, with an important touch on 24 monthly exp.average (first time from July.2014; good for a key reversal of main trend).
-) November lows are according both to mid-level of the August inside and on M/10 levels {Multiple 10mo. average, is a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema}.
See also the seasonality of OIL.
A key-price levels is the 50% of head and the base of sx-shoulder (WTI, 37.8-38.5 about).

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#01] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini
[#02] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index post review. - http://goo.gl/7odPE8

☒ Chart sources.
❖ BakerHughes; FreeStockCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Italian Referendum of December 04 2016: a short view of Uncertainty Policy Index and BTP-BUND spread.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a qualitative comparation between the Uncertainty Policy Index of Italy and Europe, and BTP-BUND spread, in order to obtain info on the next key electoral event in Europe, according to BrExit post and US post.

☒ Graphical Elements.
Uncertainty Policy Index for Italy is very strange vs. Europe curve, because of the instability elements (data close: 31/Oct./2016) are more important in the second and not in Italy. Italy shows key tops about in-line; Europe key tops are ascending and also in SkyRocket in 2016!!! October values are in average for Italy, but Europe is about at top-ever area!!! According to close of October, Italy do not shows elements of uncertainty-instability; is this a sign of #YES???
Spread BTP-BUND, shows an interesting recovery structure (gray area), with a start of a bullish action (values above top.2009, and about in-line with tops of 2010). Spread above the blue ascending line is a key element for the next target zone (gray-column & lows of 2012 at about 276 bp.). But the spread is indicative of Italian political stability??? The BTP-BUND spread includes 3 elements in this phase of European evolution: financial stress inside Italian bank assets, above and beyond the Eu/QE; the stability of EuroArea post 2017 (key electoral events in Europe); the post-referendum evolution of Italian political system. For these reasons, the spread is 1/3 indicative of the referendum vote. Only with spread at target zone (or about) there is an indication of #NO.
The next up-date is at 03-04 December, with new close-data for the first indicator.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Italian Referendum of December 04 2016: data from Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and BTP-BUND spread.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a qualitative comparation between the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index of Italy and Europe (triple frames), and BTP-BUND spread (weekly complete chart), in order to obtain info on the next key electoral event in Europe, according to BrExit post and US post.

☒ Graphical Elements.
►Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Italy is very strange vs. Europe curve at November 30 close, because of the instability elements are more important in the second and not in Italy.
Italy shows key tops about in-line; Europe key tops are ascending and also in SkyRocket in 2016!!!
Autumn values are in average for Italy, but Europe is about at top-ever area!!!
France & UK shows curves about in line with Europe (sky rocket & top-ever area); Germany shows values well above the historical average.
According to close of November, Italy do not shows elements of economic policy uncertainty-instability, but Europe, UK, France, and Germany (in part) shows impressive increase of these curves in 2016. The spread between these curves ITA vs. other key countries and Europe, shows monstre decreases in 2015-2016.
Is this a sign of #YES???
Is this a sign of (incredible) stability (in economic-policy) of Italy vs. key countries of Europe???
A double key of these data are:
a.) Government Budget deficit curves;
b.) next European elections (France & Germany)???
►Spread BTP-BUND, shows an interesting local reversal structure (gray area), with a start of a bullish action (values above top.2009, and about in-line with tops of 2010). Spread above the blue ascending line is a key element for the next target zone (gray-column & lows of 2012 at about 276 bp.).
But the spread is indicative of Italian political stability and informative about the next referendum???
The BTP-BUND spread includes 3 elements, in this phase of European evolution:
financial stress inside Italian bank assets, above and beyond the Eu/QE;
the stability of EuroArea post 2017 (key electoral events in Europe);
the post-referendum evolution of Italian political (and economic) system.
For these reasons, the spread is 1/3 indicative of the referendum vote.
Only with spread at target zone (or about) there is an indication of #NO.
Current weekly situation shows a wonder intercept of the spread on blue ascending line, with a violent mini SellOff and an important local reversal of Italian stocks.
Current curve behaviour of spread (close of Dec.01) shows (qualitatively) about 2/3 of #YES and 1/3 of #NO.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Referendum Italiano 04 Dicembre 2016: dati da sondaggi e intenzioni di voto aggregate.

☒ Scopo post.
In questo post si tenta di ottenere dati oggettivi sull'esito del referendum costituzionale italiano del 04 dicembre 2016, analogamente a quanto effettuato nei posts sulla BrExit e sulle Presidenziali US.
Nel post precedente sono state usate due curve di natura finanziaria, dalle quali si desume la plausibile vittoria di SI alla data del 30 novembre.
I dati del presente post sono stati ottenuti da Wikipedia grazie alle elaborazioni in grafici messe a disposizione da Supernino (fonti originali immagini: 01; 02; 03).

☒ Dati.
►Nell'intero 2016, il consenso varia secondo il seguente trend:
SI -16.3%; NO +16.2%; Indecisi -1.3%.
►Fase pre-BrExit:
SI -13.2%; NO +13.1%; In +8.6%.
►Fase post BrExit:
SI -3.1%; NO +3.1%; In -9.9%.
►Totale Intervistati
SI 46.2% votanti SI oppure NO; 53.8% Indecisi o Astenuti.

☒ Considerazioni
Prima della fase BrExit il SI era in netta prevalenza sul NO; nella fase BrExit e post BrExit invece risulta una chiara inversione di intenzioni al voto.
Gli indecisi nella fase pre-BrExit non hanno comportato una riduzione dello spread SI-NO e quindi nemmeno il passaggio di segno (SI < NO), in quanto essi esibiscono un notevole incremento in tale fase (+8.6%).
Gli indecisi nella fase post-BrExit non spiegano totalmente il permanere dello spread negativo SI-NO, in quanto essi mostrano un decremento (9.9%) mentre lo spread si attesta a -3% / -6.2%.
L'evoluzione complessiva degli indecisi risulta quasi nulla se si considerano i punti di inizio e termine rilievi.
Astenuti e Indecisi rappresentano una parte talmente cospicua che allo stato attuale non risulta possibile attribuire valore oggettivo e veritiero ai sondaggi aggregati.
Gli indecisi mostrano una notevole ambiguità nello spostamento del consenso, sia nella fase pre- che post- BrExit; pertanto risulta probabile che la maggior parte della evoluzione dello spread SI vs. NO sia attribuibile al semplice travaso di intenzione di voti da un settore (SI) verso l'altro (NO).

☒ Bibliografia
Salvatore SalVi Vicidomini, 2016 - Italian Referendum of December 04 2016: data from Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and BTP-BUND spread. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311309977
Salvatore SalVi Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: ITA.- Analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. ►ENG.- US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039
Salvatore SalVi Vicidomini, 2016 - BrExit vs. BRemain. Some notes about Trending Curves of Polls (Undecided vs. Leave/Remain), and Net Cot Chart of GBP. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/304355704

☒ Chart sources.
❖ Supernino in Wikipedia.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: a review of the previous posts and the current chart situation.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016). In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest [Sx-shoulder, 7 weeks, 37.75$-50.92$; Head, 36 weeks, 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$, 24.87$ area; numerical up-target 75.79$, or percentage down target 13.33$ as loss of 48.8% from head-low; key-price levels 50% of head & base of sx-shoulder: 37.8-38.5 about; -- see review].
In the present study there is a shot up-date of the long-term frames of WTI and its current status of graphical contest.
These posts (previous & next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.
M/10 levels {Multiple 10mo. average, is a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema}.

☒ Previous Graphical Elements.
According to post n.157, the graphical contest shows the following elements (see also WTI personal studies in #1):
-) Sx-shoulder (7 weeks; 37.75$-50.92$);
-) Head (36 weeks; 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$: 24.87$ area);
-) Dx-shoulder (or handle) in progress(?).
-) Numerical up-target is 75.79$. Percentage down target is 13.33$ (loss of 48.8% from head-low).
-) Double tops not perfect (second a little above the first); this element is a favorable to the bullish scenario.
-) Current price level in the superior half of graphical contest (about at mid-point or 75% level od the area), and in descending-array toward the mid-level (or switch-level bullish vs. bearish probability; see the white directional triangles); this element is favorable to bullish view.
-) MACD structures (post n.155) shows some signs of bullish view: current positive values; ascending tops; divergences on key long term lows (2009-2016).
-) Complete ema-ribbon (post n.158) in monthly and weekly frames shows signs favorable to a local bullish (recovery?) action of WTI.
-) According to post n.159, OVX and OIV (CBOE volatility indicators on WTI) shows interesting Head & Shoulders in preliminar bearish activation, associated with a ''monstre'' MACD divergence on key tops 2015-2016; these elements are favorable to a bullish action (and/or) reaction of WTI. Moreover OVX shows a giant divergence on key lows 2009 vs. 2016: descending lows vs. descending OVX tops (sign of structural reversal in bullish status, of WTI???).
-) The seasonal behaviour of WTI (post n.160), shows July and August as positive months (open < close) and this is statistically favorable to a re-start of bullish action of WTI during current summer II half. Autumn months shows a very bad stats.
-) According to post n.162, there is a perfect time-balance between two shoulders (7 weeks). Moreover, the slope of bearish mouvement of WTI in July, the volume patterns ''Feb.May-2016'' vs. ''June-July'', and the current values of used oscillators, are compatible with a correction array (not impulsive action or structure). PricesXVolume columns is compatible with a Dx-shoulder building in action: ~50$; ~40$.
-) According to the post n.163, the neck-line level is compatible only with the 50% of break even area (or neutrality) of US Shale aggregate and Middle East Off Shore producers, and totally profitable for OPEC On Shore (see Saudi Arabia). Current level and mid-point of Graphical Contest (38.49$ as in post n.157) are compatible only with 3/4 (or 75%) of OPEC On Shore break even area. Up target of Graphical Contest is totally profitable for OPEC On Shore, US Shale, ME Off Shore, but only for 50% about of other aggregates (see Venezuela); Arctic aggregate is KO also with this level. The bullish activation of Graphical Contest is fully compatible with the break even price-area and more, for Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Kwait, Qatar, US (shale only). It is neutral for other aggregate producers as Venezuela. A possible bullish leg of WTI 39-76$ in the next quarters, is compatible with the current geopolitical structure of the main OIL players as ME-OPEC and part of US producers.
-) According to post n.164 and n.166, during the first August week, the shoulder areas of WTI graphical contest, shows a perfect geometrical equivalence, with a possible local reversal of the June-July bearish trend, compatible with a big reversal of WTI.
-) According to post n.168, some moving averages (and MACD) are in bullish-array.
-) WTI values now are in the key price zone outlined in post n.169.
-) We are in a confirmed bullish evolution of two descending rectangles as in post n.180.
-) WTI shows very negative seasonal performances in October and November (good for bullish action); Brent shows very negative seasonal performances in September and November-December (neutral) (post n.184).
-) Main exporters shows an important increase 2014 vs. 2016 (bad for bullish action -- post n.184).
-) OIL USO ETF volatility shows a seasonal behaviour with a safe(?) zone in autumn-winter for WTI price (good for bullish action -- post n.184).
-) US Rig Counts shows in 2016, the first important local reversal from the key SellOff of 2014, with a stop of decrease above the base of the previous top 2000-2008, compatible with a reversal of WTI (post n.195).
-) WTI shows an interesting inside monthly bar (August 2016) and an horrible October monthly candle (but with an important touch on 24 monthly exp.average); moreover November lows are according both to mid-level of the August inside and on M/10 levels (compatible with a big reversal of WTI: post n.195).

☒ This study Graphical Elements.
}- Weekly frame shows bullish array of WTI curve according to:
M/10; Ichimoku Transformed; MACD vs. mid-line; MACD vs. its descending line; MACD vs. prices (anticipatory graphical contest: gray areas); double touches prices vs. ema-24 mo.
}- Monthly frame shows bullish array of WTI curve according to:
M/10; Ichimoku Transformed; MACD & TRIX with important bullish reversal; Coppock with key bullish reversal (see its mid-line & descending line); current touch prices vs. ema-24 mo.
}- August inside (blue column) is in start bullish mode, with a first target (60$ about) only above the top of the '''horrible''' October candle (see the weekly gap down at 55.5-56.5$). Second target as the Head & Shoulders outlined with white column.
According to above data, there is a very important probability of Head & Shoulders bullish completation, with a first graphical detonator the neck-level (WTI prices now are above), and the second the October top (about in-line).
The semi-tapering of ECB will cause an acceleration of the bullish evolution (see QE & WTI link)???

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#01] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini
[#02] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index post review. - http://goo.gl/7odPE8

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401

Devices on-line vs. population of some OECD countries.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a re-elaboration of an interesting OECD slide on world diffusion of devices on-line (OECD countries).

☒ Graphical Elements.
See attached modified slide.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ OECD.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!