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  • #145,901
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:46am Dec 2, 2016 9:46am
Wondering how likely we will see a roll near the .061x today? It appears due to inline we are in a chop zone for now and nothing to see.

I was lookkng for news and normal flows to test same levels around .058x and .056x. Not looking for a new low until ECB/Italy if that creates the momentum play.
  • #145,902
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:53am Dec 2, 2016 9:53am
Why the market is focused on wage growth

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=619811
  • #145,903
  • Dec 2, 2016 10:10am Dec 2, 2016 10:10am
Quoting IMARICH1
Wondering how likely we will see a roll near the .061x today? It appears due to inline we are in a chop zone for now and nothing to see. I was lookkng for news and normal flows to test same levels around .058x and .056x. Not looking for a new low until ECB/Italy if that creates the momentum play.
Not that is relevant but the 15 ADR for euro is around 98 pips , 65 pips is covered so far today , on the upside ADR will be met around 1.0720x else on the downside around 1.0591x .

Whether euro would be range bound or extented today is not clear to me to be honest so nothing to do with same levels in play on micro daily flows .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,904
  • Dec 2, 2016 10:10am Dec 2, 2016 10:10am
TDA raising margin for all JPY pairs to 4%?
  • #145,905
  • Dec 2, 2016 10:23am Dec 2, 2016 10:23am
Expecting a roll in eu...hope we get it
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,906
  • Dec 2, 2016 10:26am Dec 2, 2016 10:26am
DXY is sitting at the support level of latest swing low from 102.0x to 100.6x for reference .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,907
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:13am Dec 2, 2016 11:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
TDA raising margin for all JPY pairs to 4%?
For Italy?
  • #145,908
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:24am Dec 2, 2016 11:24am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} For Italy?
I guess you r right. Not important data next week until Thursday for jpy
  • #145,909
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:24am Dec 2, 2016 11:24am
I understand that there is this problem how to interpret the AHE and some are pointing to the general problem of the labor market. There is tons of analysis showing the low quality of jobs, stagnating real income, declining participation rate etc. etc. and even FED is aware of that. On the other hand even if this was a flop - there is strong argument that with such a low unemployment the AHE growth will come - FED was waiting for that so long via the Phillips curve argument. And so I think there is not much more speace to go for the unemployment so if the basic rationale behind the economic theory are right - the wage growth should be here now or very soon. In longer term its picking up. however still far from pre-2008 = which partly explains this completely atypical rate hike cycle.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a...6d4c970d-800wi

One more thing which comes to my mind - if the inflation expectations/rate expectations are higer due to potential fiscal stimulus - the need for FED to overheat the labor market to create the inflation may be lower. So Im not saying it does not matter - but if labor market about a year ago was the only light at the end of the tunnel. There may be more lights now to reach the inflation target. Or even overshoot.

For markets: NY decided not to play. Which is pitty. I was aiming for the bearish run. Maybe the mistake in my NFP map was = projecting same target on inline and overshoot. Inline should have been projected to the flip actually. We will see. Now only the closing range left.
  • #145,910
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:25am Dec 2, 2016 11:25am
Quoting pipsandbits
{quote} I guess you r right. Not important data next week until Thursday for jpy
Also peso and nzd? Why not for Euro? Hahaha
  • #145,911
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:32am Dec 2, 2016 11:32am
Quoting chester123
I understand that there is this problem how to interpret the AHE and some are pointing to the general problem of the labor market. There is tons of analysis showing the low quality of jobs, stagnating real income, declining participation rate etc. etc. and even FED is aware of that. On the other hand even if this was a flop - there is strong argument that with such a low unemployment the AHE growth will come - FED was waiting for that so long via the Phillips curve argument. And so I think there is not much more speace to go for the unemployment...
Makes sense ...me too disappointed by the outcome of today flows although is not over but I don't expect much left in the oven .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,912
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:42am Dec 2, 2016 11:42am
Quoting pipsandbits
{quote} Also peso and nzd? Why not for Euro? Hahaha
Could be some other reason, usually brokers put explanation behind when they change margins for what the reason is. However if Italian referendum is risk on event then it would make sense to cut jpy margins.
  • #145,913
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:54am Dec 2, 2016 11:54am
Increase in required minimum security deposits

Decrease in required minimum security deposits

https://www.nfa.futures.org/news/new...ArticleID=4764
  • #145,914
  • Dec 2, 2016 12:04pm Dec 2, 2016 12:04pm
Got same increase and decrease from oanda
  • #145,915
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:40pm Dec 2, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting janpec1000
GBP signaling possible upthrust before/into NFP.
Closing long here, target completed. Lets see Italy and Tokyo open.
  • #145,916
  • Dec 2, 2016 2:45pm Dec 2, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
Increase in required minimum security deposits Decrease in required minimum security deposits https://www.nfa.futures.org/news/new...ArticleID=4764
Yeah but my ? is why....

Has nothing to do with Italian Ref...

peso makes sense over Trump and their finance minister leaving, but yen?
  • #145,917
  • Edited 4:47pm Dec 2, 2016 3:29pm | Edited 4:47pm
so how did it go today?

Inline NFP and NY did not play the flow I suggested. Insted we pretty much back where we started. On that one I was wrong.

Whats next? I would say we got marginally bullish close on W in short term.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And with Italy next week I would suggest this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Yes for a soft continuation to the top of the range and wait for ECB or NO for a path towards the lower extreme to wait for ECB to confirm the break. Just a veeeery rough suggestion of the path.

The FA reasons are clear I would say (= referendum is gonna set the tone for ECB in my view). Just would expect stronger reaction on YES as its not so expected. On NO maybe a more muted path towards the lows BUT wonder if there can be some risk-off via italian banks if NO wins. Im not well informed on that if something can happen as a reaction.

P.S.: excited to see if sisse has some comments on our day here without him posting, i.e. on my challenge respectivelly
  • #145,918
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:08pm Dec 2, 2016 4:08pm
I saw someone commenting about a roll play for today close , I don't agree with that and in the context of the coming events from EZ side , euro* is going to be in the front seat along side USD this time so direction wise , you blink you miss apply IMO as soon as monday open for the next short term leg before ECB/FED in terms of positionning . Beware the kneejerk reaction as always in such risk events . Here cleared some positions manually as is not worth the risk in play after the swing low from 1.129x with minimal retrace. Also that triple bottom on high TF is not to ignore if a euro rally unfolds and takes few handles on the way up .
TA wise 1.073x is key area and closes above would rather give an upper hand for the bulls to extend the move or even take control on Taper/cautious FED on 2017 rate path scenario !
Anyway, have a nice w/e all.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,919
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:36pm Dec 2, 2016 7:36pm
Quoting chester123
All right here is my try for NFP: FA and expectations: unemployment is on FED target and NFP still running high (above FED comfortable 100 lvl). DEC hike is done deal by now so..... overshoot (accounting only NFP number +but there are AHE too of course) - we would need strong one (due to ADP slight overshoot is expected) - more than 250 = translates into stronger hike path in mid term. Inline = nothing to see for FA implications- FED and unemployment on track. Any miss - 150 and below will not be important per se from the FA side. Only a huge miss...
Thanks
  • #145,920
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:37pm Dec 2, 2016 7:37pm
Quoting chester123
so how did it go today? Inline NFP and NY did not play the flow I suggested. Insted we pretty much back where we started. On that one I was wrong. Whats next? I would say we got marginally bullish close on W in short term. {image} And with Italy next week I would suggest this. {image} Yes for a soft continuation to the top of the range and wait for ECB or NO for a path towards the lower extreme to wait for ECB to confirm the break. Just a veeeery rough suggestion of the path. The FA reasons are clear I would say (= referendum is gonna set the tone...
Thanks
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