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  • #145,881
  • Dec 2, 2016 5:22am Dec 2, 2016 5:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}They won't get on it much more than they have done in 2016. The Trump govt will dive into as inflationary a project as can be imagined and, if that succeeds, the Fed will just let the old jalopy run hot. Just remember: Republican debt is altogether a different thing than Democrat debt. All creatures are created Equal, only some are more Equal than others. I recommend "Animal Farm" by George Orwell as a quick read that will be quite instructive. If you will just go long US equities, you will be a able to buy a truckload of paperback Animal...
will not be shorting eminis, but i would btfd if it is big enough. looking to align my 457 etfs as well

really want 16xx handle
  • #145,882
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:33am Dec 2, 2016 6:33am
GBP signaling possible upthrust before/into NFP.
  • #145,883
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:08am Dec 2, 2016 7:08am
Hoping nfp provides an entry short over 700-740. Would be nervy holding into the Italian weekend though. Strong overshoot and I'll consider that train missed. Won't have to wait long for further news and volatility anyway.
  • #145,884
  • Edited 7:42am Dec 2, 2016 7:24am | Edited 7:42am
All right here is my try for NFP:

FA and expectations: unemployment is on FED target and NFP still running high (above FED comfortable 100 lvl). DEC hike is done deal by now so..... overshoot (accounting only NFP number +but there are AHE too of course) - we would need strong one (due to ADP slight overshoot is expected) - more than 250 = translates into stronger hike path in mid term. Inline = nothing to see for FA implications- FED and unemployment on track. Any miss - 150 and below will not be important per se from the FA side. Only a huge miss below 100 can question DEC FED.

My expectations: it will be on the upper inline of the range. 150-200 or overshoot.

TA: the shole short term range is open and we sitting right on flip for NFP:

1.0865 strong res. (extreme) - 1.0783 resistance (top) - 1.064 flip 1.054 - support (low) - 1.046 strong support (extreme)

Flows: see the chart. Its better than any explanation. Its easy ride - simple straight from flip (no zigzags and so on). The chart suggests the knee jerk reaction and NY flow till the end of trading. Basically we either visit the top of low of short term range via NFP flow.

Tradingwise: as sisse wrote the flow is opp to jump in and preposition for the rest of DEC - Italy + FED.

P.S.: honestly, the biggest problem for me is maping the exact flow - sisse always says all micro lvls raised. But I do not know if that means all except for short/mid/long term lvls cuz you can see I added those two sub-short term lvls to map the flow and that may be wrong!!!!
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  • #145,885
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:28am Dec 2, 2016 7:28am
Quoting chester123
All right here is my try for NFP: FA and expectations: unemployment is on FED target and NFP still running high (above FED comfortable 100 lvl). DEC hike is done deal by now so..... overshoot (accounting only NFP number +but there are AHE too of course) - we would need strong one (due to ADP slight overshoot is expected) - more than 250 = translates into stronger hike path in mid term. Inline = nothing to see for FA implications- FED and unemployment on track. Any miss - 150 and below will not be important per se from the FA side. Only a huge miss...
congrats
lets see how it pans out
inline
  • #145,886
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:36am Dec 2, 2016 7:36am
Inline. Unemployment print nice for the media. Fundamentally overweighted by decrease in AHE. Rest inline. Almost no revisions.
  • #145,887
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:41am Dec 2, 2016 7:41am
Looks like a bit of a miss to me (NFP revised down from last month makes it overall slighly below expectations, plus with ADP beat, a bigger miss). Not all so perfect in paradise. The 2017 looking for 3 hikes took a hit. 10 year bonds losing yield. dollar index falling a bit. Looks like would be E/U correction but for Italy....so could end up neutral for e/u on the day I expect.
defense wins championships
  • #145,888
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:46am Dec 2, 2016 7:46am
Quoting seemoore
Looks like a bit of a miss to me (NFP revised down from last month makes it overall slighly below expectations, plus with ADP beat, a bigger miss). Not all so perfect in paradise. The 2017 looking for 3 hikes took a hit. 10 year bonds losing yield. dollar index falling a bit. Looks like would be E/U correction but for Italy....so could end up neutral for e/u on the day I expect.
Hmm, this is a question of FA interpretation so we way differ. In my view its inline. Commulative revisions are -2 = nothing pretty much. Would not judge the report from FA side by looking at M1 timeframe reaction with only few candles and without NY playing. Its just a noise nothing much saying. At least I do not see much in it.
  • #145,889
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:48am Dec 2, 2016 7:48am
Quoting chester123
Inline. Unemployment print nice for the media. Fundamentally overweighted by decrease in AHE. Rest inline. Almost no revisions.
Yeh dollar flopped. GU as usual overperforming the rest. Agree with above post aswell in terms of FED actions.
  • #145,890
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:52am Dec 2, 2016 7:52am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hmm, this is a question of FA interpretation so we way differ. In my view its inline. Commulative revisions are -2 = nothing pretty much. Would not judge the report from FA side by looking at M1 timeframe reaction with only few candles and without NY playing.
Well done Chester

What do you say about the unemployment number?

Very strong imo and can fuel stronger expectation for more rate hikes in 2017 . More difficult to create many new jobs when there is limited with unemployed people.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,891
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:54am Dec 2, 2016 7:54am
Quoting chester123
All right here is my try for NFP: FA and expectations: unemployment is on FED target and NFP still running high (above FED comfortable 100 lvl). DEC hike is done deal by now so..... overshoot (accounting only NFP number +but there are AHE too of course) - we would need strong one (due to ADP slight overshoot is expected) - more than 250 = translates into stronger hike path in mid term. Inline = nothing to see for FA implications- FED and unemployment on track. Any miss - 150 and below will not be important per se from the FA side. Only a huge miss...
Nailed it.
  • #145,892
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:56am Dec 2, 2016 7:56am
Good analysis chester123.

I am looking for .058x to .056x for today due to inline and unemployment data. Depends on how NY plays it though.
  • #145,893
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:02am Dec 2, 2016 8:02am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hmm, this is a question of FA interpretation so we way differ. In my view its inline. Commulative revisions are -2 = nothing pretty much. Would not judge the report from FA side by looking at M1 timeframe reaction with only few candles and without NY playing. Its just a noise nothing much saying. At least I do not see much in it.
I'm not sure we actually disagree. Just looking different timeframes perhaps. Your pre-NFP projection (very good btw) was looking for upper inline or overshoot. Everything we have seen in the media past 3 days (since ADP) have been possible overshoot. I don't think anyone will call this an overshoot, so that's why I say a bit of a miss.

I agree with you DEC Fed is on for hike with this. (absent unexpected event/s).

I think those positioning for 3 hikes in 2017 have lost confidence due to today's numbers. Is it a big deal? No. but 3 hikes next year isn't as strong as it was yesterday. It isn't as strong since Atlanta Fed GDP now revised down the 4th qtr projection a couple days ago by about 1%. And now, since my post, on the way-too-micro chart, the 10 year bond yields have retested their high and started falling down. No big move, but there could be a ceiling there for now.
defense wins championships
  • #145,894
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:31am Dec 2, 2016 8:31am
Quoting seemoore
{quote} I'm not sure we actually disagree. Just looking different timeframes perhaps. Your pre-NFP projection (very good btw) was looking for upper inline or overshoot. Everything we have seen in the media past 3 days (since ADP) have been possible overshoot. I don't think anyone will call this an overshoot, so that's why I say a bit of a miss. I agree with you DEC Fed is on for hike with this. (absent unexpected event/s). I think those positioning for 3 hikes in 2017 have lost confidence due to today's numbers. Is it a big deal? No. but 3 hikes...
Hmm ok, I understand your argument. But I do not see the impact of the report on mid term rates. For me its inline on all fronts - reinforces the recent projection. About Atlanta GDP - that almost 4 % projections seems overstretched anyway if FED talks about potentional on 1,9%. Plus It fluctuates a lot generally so I would not give it so much weight right now when its come to its impact on mid term rates.

Quoting Earleone
{quote} Well done Chester What do you say about the unemployment number? Very strong imo and can fuel stronger expectation for more rate hikes in 2017 . More difficult to create many new jobs when there is limited with unemployed people.
Yes, it basically proves its the cyclical top or veery close to it.

--------------

And here comes NY to prove I was wrong we will se
  • #145,895
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:34am Dec 2, 2016 8:34am
unemployment is inline and seasonally accurate, nfp inline....nothing to see
  • #145,896
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:35am Dec 2, 2016 8:35am
Quoting chester123
All right here is my try for NFP: FA and expectations: unemployment is on FED target and NFP still running high (above FED comfortable 100 lvl). DEC hike is done deal by now so..... overshoot (accounting only NFP number +but there are AHE too of course) - we would need strong one (due to ADP slight overshoot is expected) - more than 250 = translates into stronger hike path in mid term. Inline = nothing to see for FA implications- FED and unemployment on track. Any miss - 150 and below will not be important per se from the FA side. Only a huge miss...
Well Done Chester!

Nice article on upcoming ECB, headline: "Exclusive: ECB to extend asset buys but may signal eventual end"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ec...-idUSKBN13Q53K
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,897
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:10am Dec 2, 2016 9:10am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hmm ok, I understand your argument. But I do not see the impact of the report on mid term rates. For me its inline on all fronts - reinforces the recent projection. About Atlanta GDP - that almost 4 % projections seems overstretched anyway if FED talks about potentional on 1,9%. Plus It fluctuates a lot generally so I would not give it so much weight right now when its come to its impact on mid term rates. ...
1. I'm still learning, so my opinions may be terribly uninformed.
2. Today's report that I think the bond market is reacting to is just a pullback. We've been on a dollar and bond yield run for weeks now. Today was either continue or pullback time. Take a look at the 5 year history for the average hourly earnings. (if I post it right). It shows the NEGATIVE -0.1 growth has now only happened 4 times in 5 years. Earnings impacts spending, which tends to impact GDP as I understand it. So, was the AHE a blip? Maybe. But if you were looking to get on the rate train of 4 more hikes, 1 this year and 3 next year (1.0% total) like the major dollar bulls were saying, would you want this blip? No.

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3. Also, the unemployment rate went down due to the participation rate declining I would guess, not a good thing. Manufacturing and private payrolls both had minor misses.
4. While nothing is a concern in short term next hike, I don't think all these lesser numbers support the case that the economy is overheating and will require multiple hikes in short order. But as you point out, just a single month, so don't put too much into it. I'm not. I just don't see a direct continuation based on today. I'm still looking for 1.085 on ECB day next week as my base expectation/wild guess, but so many moving parts.
defense wins championships
  • #145,898
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:10am Dec 2, 2016 9:10am
Quoting janpec1000
GBP signaling possible upthrust before/into NFP.
On its way with a bit of delay. Possible dollar bearish mid term play setting JPY.
  • #145,899
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:28am Dec 2, 2016 9:28am
Quoting Pharm0r
unemployment is inline and seasonally accurate, nfp inline....nothing to see
In fact , there are things to see if jobs are created based on lower wages it would never lead to a prosperous economy . Sure today data is irrelevant for the Dec hike

but any hints about a possible mention of cautious policy during Fed meeting would derail the market view on the current expectations of 2017 rate path .

Lower wages was the focus despite the unemployment is the lowest since 2007 .

Euro is likely to hold the break both sides til it clears the 'risk' event during this weekend although short covering could lead to a limited rally for the close .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,900
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:38am Dec 2, 2016 9:38am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Well Done Chester! Nice article on upcoming ECB, headline: "Exclusive: ECB to extend asset buys but may signal eventual end" http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ec...-idUSKBN13Q53K
Nothing is tradable on that 'old' news, If ECB decide to buy less bonds after March, that is a tapering announcement . Market is looking that way in my opinion nothing changed until the actual meeting .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
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