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  • #145,841
  • Dec 1, 2016 7:31am Dec 1, 2016 7:31am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I loaded intraday new ones today. Full target on GBP now done from my view, flat now. AUD and NZD atm opening potential downward moves. Gold also on sight, altough for now relatively small target.
I am flat now as well, cleared all @ the high and already short AU....that brings my question for sisse...

Quoting sisse
While Sterling* got a very bad hammer via inflation (OIL and commodities). BOE will have a very hard time devaluing Sterling further as the shock in inflation next months (real wages and consumer spending) is going to be very bad already, now with further external inflationary pressures this is going to be a fck up scenario for next year...GU will mainly move and softly as collateral of Dollar for the foreseeable future. sisse
With brexit at a stalemate (for now), and BOE not having a trigger for devaluing further....would you suspect a wide chop and range in GU? That's what I'm pinpointing, and why I cleared instead of holding for the (possible) momentum break. I would still like to buy again, but I'm suspicious of "buy and hold" with brexit powder keg in the background
  • #145,842
  • Dec 1, 2016 8:01am Dec 1, 2016 8:01am
Shorted UCAD from micro, XCADs are still underpriced on bear side from recent Oil news, sturcturally also further downside is still valid nothing was invalidated with pullback. Got BE cleared on initial short but steping in with new one.
NU and AU atm still hanging around, not clear view wont be shorting any.
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  • #145,843
  • Dec 1, 2016 8:06am Dec 1, 2016 8:06am
+++ FA post alert +++ For those interesting in details about Sterling as per 1 Dec 2017.

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I am flat now as well, cleared all @ the high and already short AU....that brings my question for sisse... {quote} With brexit at a stalemate (for now), and BOE not having a trigger for devaluing further....would you suspect a wide chop and range in GU? That's what I'm pinpointing, and why I cleared instead of holding for the (possible) momentum break. I would still like to buy again, but I'm suspicious of "buy and hold" with brexit powder keg in the background
Well I don't have the chain for the backposts (sure you can search and join them but a bit irrelevant now)but basically here is a quick recap on the last couple of months so you can get in synch with it:

  1. We lost 35 years lows in very short time in two quick legs. One was the actual risk play (the vote 1.50.xx -> 1.35xx) and then BOE launched the bazooka to save the day (1.35xx -> 1.28xx).
  2. That should have been about it until article 50 and all the details on the negotiations etc, next year.
  3. Problem is that the UK government went a bit overboard back in September (typical hubris) and pretty much started to announce first 'no passporting' (this is the only thing The City cares for the banks) and after saying that not only they don't care about the Banks but also UK will leave the 'common market' itself which was never on the table before.
  4. What happened next is they ask for a plan ...government said no plan and is all secret ...so the back and for went until the City (and the biggest corporations based in the UK from Nissan to Citibank and what have you) say enough is enough as they were pretty much ready to jump in the abyss...
  5. It took a quick selloff the so call 'flash crash' (no so flash after all even for the most blind brexiter after 2 months) to put Sterling against the ropes 1.20xx was the BOE max reference level on the short term before monetary policy (via inflation) collapse for real and not even with Article 50 triggered ....
  6. As you expect in less than a day, one by one the bargain process started under the table and pretty much all got settle with offers ranging from no corporation taxes to free ride in labour and environmental laws, subsidise, dumping, tarifs, monopolies and what have you to keep then on check ...the rest is just trying to keep the masses focus on 'brexit means brexit' whatever that means and whatever that cost.
  7. We call it a few of them (check back post) until the BOE confirmed that inflation and real wages were going to have a huge blow in 2017 (no shit and no brainer), that day we changed outlook to Neutral and declared the easy part of the move gone ...

Where are we now?

 

  1. Short term will be hard for Sterling* to move down on macro FA so it will move as collateral of their pairs (GU via Dollar, GY via Yen etc etc).
  2. Mid term we are about to shift to soft sell or even neutral for the next BOE (or even before with the ECB) because Sterling will be in limbo with politicians (and very lame, nationalist and populist ones) play soap opera with the EU while uncertainty and reality of the UK leaving the largest and biggest trading block in the world slowly settle in and the average Joe start feeling the impact directly in their pocket via inflation.
  3. In a nutshell is TA neutral, FA nearly bottom but politicians are in control on this one and a 'faux pas' (very probable) from the UK government or the rest of Europe descending in the populist trap will trigger aggressive positions and more pain for the smaller side (in this case Sterling)...

I hope it helps to get in synch ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,844
  • Edited 8:42am Dec 1, 2016 8:11am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I am flat now as well, cleared all @ the high and already short AU....that brings my question for sisse... {quote} With brexit at a stalemate (for now), and BOE not having a trigger for devaluing further....would you suspect a wide chop and range in GU? That's what I'm pinpointing, and why I cleared instead of holding for the (possible) momentum break. I would still like to buy again, but I'm suspicious of "buy and hold" with brexit powder keg in the background

Nvm my above AU/NU repost. I am short aswell NU. Its less reliable pattern ill cut it quick if goes against.

EMs setting up for new all time lows, turkish lira leading, MXN just topped out and forming extended target towards current low but the key largest RR play remains in ZAR with daily macro. Yesterdays long with perfect bear squeeze was BE cleared, looking for another aligning near mid term macro and micro.
  • #145,845
  • Dec 1, 2016 8:55am Dec 1, 2016 8:55am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Nvm my above AU/NU repost. I am short aswell NU. Its less reliable pattern ill cut it quick if goes against. EMs setting up for new all time lows, turkish lira leading, MXN just topped out and forming extended target towards current low but the key largest RR play remains in ZAR with daily macro. Yesterdays long with perfect bear squeeze was BE cleared, looking for another aligning near mid term macro and micro.
Curious to know when you say micro is it roughly the 5min to 15min tf you are looking at and macro roughly 4h/daily?
  • #145,846
  • Dec 1, 2016 8:59am Dec 1, 2016 8:59am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Nvm my above AU/NU repost. I am short aswell NU. Its less reliable pattern ill cut it quick if goes against. EMs setting up for new all time lows, turkish lira leading, MXN just topped out and forming extended target towards current low but the key largest RR play remains in ZAR with daily macro. Yesterdays long with perfect bear squeeze was BE cleared, looking for another aligning near mid term macro and micro.
Sold 50% of position on mid term macro target. Still a lot more to go on larger macro. AU laging behind, there is still larger potential in there.
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Gold with clean break, watching closely the action around 1162 low, for now micros are fishy setting for possible large clearout, happens very often on gold and bam someone pushes billion in naked shorts and support gets crushed.
Also ECAD, potential quick play.

Goosebone
Its never avaraged, meaning it completly depends on situation. Some micros are 5 min, some H1, some h4 some are time defined by days if fundamental informations are used. I try to avoid posting any micro posts becouse they clutter thread too much, it probably already is.
  • #145,847
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:23am Dec 1, 2016 9:23am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Sold 50% of position on mid term macro target. Still a lot more to go on larger macro. AU laging behind, there is still larger potential in there. {image} Gold with clean break, watching closely the action around 1162 low, for now micros are fishy setting for possible large clearout, happens very often on gold and bam someone pushes billion in naked shorts and support gets crushed. Also ECAD, potential quick play. Goosebone Its never avaraged, meaning it completly depends on situation. Some micros are 5 min, some H1, some h4 some are time...
Thanks just wanted to follow your posts with a better grasp on your targets when you mention them.
  • #145,848
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:29am Dec 1, 2016 9:29am
@sisse, yup exactly what I was looking for thanks

my myopic view was neutral with caution and eye on sell due to all the ongoing brexit

you're much more in depth view was neutral and possibly sell due to the same and more
  • #145,849
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:12am Dec 1, 2016 10:12am
I don't understand why ST Outlooks in Yen and Gold remain in Soft Sell at current levels as it seems to me :

 

  1. Risk-Off environment is coming potentially in EZ as early as this weekend through italian votes ('No' vote being consistently ahead before the two-week polling blackout)

  1. UJ and EJ are at the Top of their ST range
  2. UJ and EJ are in their MT flip area (and Yen MT Outlook is Buy)
  3. Gold is at the bottom of its ST range
  4. Gold is in its MT flip area (and Gold MT Outlook is Buy)


I was expecting a switch to Neutral for both.
Does it mean strong expectations on DOLLAR implies now DOLLAR = safe haven to the detriment of Yen in risk-off environment ?

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  • #145,850
  • Dec 1, 2016 11:39am Dec 1, 2016 11:39am
What does the Dec FOMC mean now? Anything? Good News = Good News, or vice versa? I think a big beat will break out US equities to HH, but I am not trading the NFP as a binary event. If the ADP is an indicator, a beat is coming...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,851
  • Edited 12:08pm Dec 1, 2016 11:49am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting The Fool
What does the Dec FOMC mean now? Anything? Good News = Good News, or vice versa? I think a big beat will break out US equities to HH, but I am not trading the NFP as a binary event. If the ADP is an indicator, a beat is coming...
NFP should beat, last year it didn't matter. EU was a buy, equities tanked. I'm planning for a repeat

I believe sisse is planning on extension to the downside EU
  • #145,852
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:02pm Dec 1, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Nvm my above AU/NU repost. I am short aswell NU. Its less reliable pattern ill cut it quick if goes against. EMs setting up for new all time lows, turkish lira leading, MXN just topped out and forming extended target towards current low but the key largest RR play remains in ZAR with daily macro. Yesterdays long with perfect bear squeeze was BE cleared, looking for another aligning near mid term macro and micro.
UZAR along some other EMs opening micro trough macro setup for tomorrows bullish NFP (unless the target is played out before). Currently holding long UMXN aswell but will most likely get BE cleared after it retraced strongly. MXN is very bearish play. Majority of Oil based currencies have performed very well in last day or two, while MXN not just it didnt gain anything, it lost in large volatility expansion on bearish side. Large macro of Trump and even higher macro of EM dollar shortage are both aligned against positive MXN flows.
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  • #145,853
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:03pm Dec 1, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} NFP should beat, last year it didn't matter. EU was a buy, equities tanked. I'm planning for a repeat
Are you running correlations USD vs the S&P? What is that telling you lately?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,854
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:09pm Dec 1, 2016 12:09pm
http://fortune.com/2016/11/29/donald...net-gary-cohn/

Drain the swamp & make it nice for the Squid.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,855
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:24pm Dec 1, 2016 12:24pm
Great sessions in commodities continue. Both GOLD, OIL and Bonds in the driver seat while Equities pretty much completing the short term pullback after the break.

On the currency front Sterling* and CAD* on the move both from the commodity front. While the majors just sleeping until the close where Dollar will quickly take control for NFP and from there after EURO will be in full control across the board for the Italy/ECB combo.....

Day seem to be pretty much over and we don't have anything in play at the current levels so expecting a soft closing US session.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,856
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:32pm Dec 1, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Are you running correlations USD vs the S&P? What is that telling you lately?
Haven't run any, no. I suspect they've run parallel since Dec '15 just on the fact that both are at highs currently. Whether or not they even hold a correlation outside that I have no clue. Please input

Saw an interesting article the other day on reasons the FED wont hike 2017...something along the lines of dollar already being high and hurting emerging economies (same shit was said last year)....which lends to what I already believed based on past FED....saber rattling but only 2 or 1 real hikes 2017. I'll try and find the article, meant to post it at the time I read it. It was relative in that they'd mixed in possible Trump policies.

Anyway, I haven't made any plans past Dec FED trade....it's cloudy to me
  • #145,857
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:37pm Dec 1, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting The Fool
http://fortune.com/2016/11/29/donald...net-gary-cohn/ Drain the swamp & make it nice for the Squid.
GS is up near 40% since the Election eve dip. Carrying the whole Dow on its back this week.

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,858
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:50pm Dec 1, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting Replicant
I don't understand why ST Outlooks in Yen and Gold remain in Soft Sell at current levels as it seems to me :....
Good questions.

-> The easy one. Outlooks change on FA and seldom on TA alone. Although your areas sound good that is not a reasons alone to change outlooks as tempting as they may look on chart

-> On Gold I agree with the risk play for the weekend but don't forget that we have FED rates and end of ECB QE in play next week(s). The flows are a lot more complex than just a risk play. Positioning is for hikes and ECB is kind of a wild card until next Thursday.

Imagine for a second that Italian referendum ends without pain, You wouldn't want to be caught empty handed for the real macro flows underneath. The opposite applies a massive blow in Italy has to be evaluate how much it will change the ECB outcome before just going all in long in the knee jerk reaction ....

Whatever the case position management is A MUST in Euro and GOLD before tomorrow close but let NFP play out first especially if you are holding a good entry position from before it will idiotic to clear before NFP ....

--> On YEN*, a bit different as the move is coming from the risk off from the US play. In my view the current exhaustion leg overextended a couple of handles extras on Yen (UJ) air (114.xx). Same for the risk play, Inline could trigger buy in yen* for the knee jerk reaction and outlooks hasn't change just out of lack of new data (thus the non stop move in it) from Japan rather than anything else. In simple words, Italy bad news will be enough otherwise is nothing to do until further data...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,859
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:52pm Dec 1, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}GS is up near 40% since the Election eve dip. Carrying the whole Dow on its back this week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebajv8mjPTo
They won the lottery with Trump ...how about that for an anti establishment vote ...the average Trumpeter wont even smell the crumbs from the current rally...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,860
  • Dec 1, 2016 1:50pm Dec 1, 2016 1:50pm
Sisse "choose your poison " time or not in eu 
Re-Incarnated
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