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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,841
  • Edited 5:16am Nov 30, 2016 5:05am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting Lock
16/11/30 WENESDAY 08:50+1GMT (edited untill 09:04) EARLY MORNING REPORT ... 09:04 GB opened inside yesterday GB range 23995-24893. Yesterday GB session left two minus development at 2434-24525 and below at 2423-2428. Pre US left a poor low at 24563. Today Sydney left a poor high at 2494 tagged by Tokyo high while Tokyo left a poor low at 24663. See previous report too see other references above and below.
12:05
Minus development filled.

Quoting Lock
10:21 25055 Is yesterday GB close: for any meaningfull continuation upside we need to have acceptation above this level.
Quoting Lock
10:27 Price is now testing both Monday GB high 25155 and the weekly inside balance high 25122. Again, this is an other level we need to accept for any possible continuation upside. If not, back the way we came. Remember that we left below the yesterday pit session poor low 24863, the yesterday preUS session poor low at 24563, today Tokyo poor low at 2466 and the yesterday GB session weak low at round 2400, plus the yesterday Tokyo session poor low just below it at 23874. Finally current C period low at half back at 2485....
Quoting Lock
[...]So monitor for continuation above: if it fails you know where it is going to go.

...no acceptation nor above the yesterday GB close at 25055 nor above the weekly balance high at 25122 nor above Monday GB high 25155: and this is the result.

Now we got a lot of single pips for F period liquidation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,842
  • Nov 30, 2016 5:20am Nov 30, 2016 5:20am
12:20+1GMT
For any meaningfull continuation downside during current GB session, we need to leave at least some pips clean of the current minus development up to 2469: this will give us a double distribution profile. If not it doesn't mean it cannot go further downside but it means that your expectations at least for current GB session should be smaller.

Remember that even if it is a big move it is not as strong: for now we only see liquidation. And again, it doesn't mean we cannot have continuation downside, but it means that current price movement is leaded by weak hands traders.
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  • #1,843
  • Nov 30, 2016 5:47am Nov 30, 2016 5:47am
Quoting Lock
12:20+1GMT For any meaningfull continuation downside during current GB session, we need to leave at least some pips clean of the current minus development up to 2469: this will give us a double distribution profile. If not it doesn't mean it cannot go further downside but it means that your expectations at least for current GB session should be smaller. Remember that even if it is a big move it is not as strong: for now we only see liquidation. And again, it doesn't mean we cannot have continuation downside, but it means that current price movement...
How do you see/conclude that it is not a strong move? I think you mean with that => strong == bigger timeframe users
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,844
  • Nov 30, 2016 5:56am Nov 30, 2016 5:56am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} How do you see/conclude that it is not a strong move? I think you mean with that => strong == bigger timeframe users
It's not strong because it was too sharp and fast and is not strong because it used weak references as resistance before to come down. As written many times a liquidation (or a short covering) could start a move in a direction just to correct inventories. Then we could have 2 scenarios: the liquidation (or short covering) morphs in something stronger with the participation of bigger timeframes or could be retraced for the intervention of the same stronger participants who saw in that particular move a good opportunity to go against it (knowing that it is structurally weak)
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  • #1,845
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:00am Nov 30, 2016 6:00am
13:00
As you see for now we saw more than 70% retracement of the single pips left by F period liquidation.
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  • #1,846
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:06am Nov 30, 2016 6:06am
13:06
We are now in the last 2 periods of GB: I think that the upcoming preUS and pit sessions should solve in any case the yesterday pit session poor low 24863 and the yesterday preUS session poor low at 24563: consequently I'm thinking about two possible scenarios here. Open above one or both of them and then go down to correct them, or open below them with a gap lower automatically solving them. Note that current action is occurring inside yesterday pit session gap higher so the opening below yesterday pit session low (24863) will create at least temporary a DOUBLE PASS PIT GAP up to that level and an "island reversal" for yesterday pit session.
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  • #1,847
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:17am Nov 30, 2016 6:17am
Also I repeat here what I've already written yesterday: USDX didn't establish an "all time" high with a pit session: it is very rare that a significant level as this one could be made by a non pit session so we still have the possibility to see a rally made by pit session in order to at least test the current "all time" high.
I don't know when, I don't know if we need more liquidation before this, but I think the odds are in favour of this possibility. Consequently cable could follow this possible rally in the exact opposite direction.
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  • #1,848
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:27am Nov 30, 2016 6:27am
Quoting Lock
13:06 We are now in the last 2 periods of GB: I think that the upcoming preUS and pit sessions should solve in any case the yesterday pit session poor low 24863 and the yesterday preUS session poor low at 24563: consequently I'm thinking about two possible scenarios here. Open above one or both of them and then go down to correct them, or open below them with a gap lower automatically solving them. Note that current action is occurring inside yesterday pit session gap higher so the opening below yesterday pit session low (24863) will create at least...

IMPORTANT: the only very different scenario could be a new gap above yesterday pit session high at 25255: in this particular case the weaknesses left below (the 2 poor lows) could be at least temporary skipped for the support of this new possible gap upside. It's not so probable but still it is possible.
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  • #1,849
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:57am Nov 30, 2016 6:57am
Quoting Lock
12:20+1GMT ..... Remember that even if it is a big move it is not as strong: for now we only see liquidation. And again, it doesn't mean we cannot have continuation downside, but it means that current price movement is leaded by weak hands traders.
Quoting Lock
It's not strong because it was too sharp and fast and is not strong because it used weak references as resistance before to come down. As written many times a liquidation (or a short covering) could start a move in a direction just to correct inventories.
Quoting Lock
Then we could have 2 scenarios: the liquidation (or short covering) morphs in something stronger with the participation of bigger timeframes or could be retraced for the intervention of the same stronger participants who saw in that particular move a good opportunity to go against it (knowing that it is structurally weak)
13:57+1GMT
F period liquidation full retracement.
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  • #1,850
  • Nov 30, 2016 7:19am Nov 30, 2016 7:19am
Quoting Lock
13:06 We are now in the last 2 periods of GB: I think that the upcoming preUS and pit sessions should solve in any case the yesterday pit session poor low 24863 and the yesterday preUS session poor low at 24563: consequently I'm thinking about two possible scenarios here. Open above one or both of them and then go down to correct them, or open below them with a gap lower automatically solving them. Note that current action is occurring inside yesterday pit session gap higher so the opening below yesterday pit session low (24863)...
14:19+1GMT
We are currently in the first scenario: preUS opened above yesterday preUS poor low but below yesterday pit US poor low. The correction of yesterday preUS poor low is very possible. Note that in order to establish the real scenario we must wait for pit open at 15:30+1GMT
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  • #1,851
  • Nov 30, 2016 7:21am Nov 30, 2016 7:21am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 14:19+1GMT We are currently in the first scenario: preUS opened above yesterday preUS poor low but below yesterday pit US poor low. The correction of yesterday preUS poor low is very possible. Note that in order to establish the real scenario we must wait for pit open at 15:30+1GMT
immediately tagged after my post...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-30_14-24-34_sessions.png Size: 183 KB
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  • #1,852
  • Nov 30, 2016 7:27am Nov 30, 2016 7:27am
Quoting Lock
{quote} immediately tagged after my post... {image}
then taken out right now.
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  • #1,853
  • Nov 30, 2016 7:40am Nov 30, 2016 7:40am
14:40+1GMT
PreUS period B currently inside preUS period A that is inside GB period J.
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  • #1,854
  • Nov 30, 2016 8:11am Nov 30, 2016 8:11am
Quoting Lock
13:06 We are now in the last 2 periods of GB: I think that the upcoming preUS and pit sessions should solve in any case the yesterday pit session poor low 24863 and the yesterday preUS session poor low at 24563: consequently I'm thinking about two possible scenarios here. Open above one or both of them and then go down to correct them, or open below them with a gap lower automatically solving them.
Quoting Lock
Note that current action is occurring inside yesterday pit session gap higher so the opening below yesterday pit session low (24863) will create at least temporary a DOUBLE PASS PIT GAP up to that level and an "island reversal" for yesterday pit session.
15:11
It looks like we are in scenario 1. At least for now. We are in the last preUS period and we are below yesterday pit session poor low, building a gap downside. If so when pit will open we will have an automatic correction of yesterday pit session porr low and a DOUBLE PASS PIT GAP up to that level (24863)

But let's see we still have less than 20 minutes to go for pit open.
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  • #1,855
  • Nov 30, 2016 8:12am Nov 30, 2016 8:12am
Quoting Lock
14:40+1GMT PreUS period B currently inside preUS period A that is inside GB period J.
B attempted above inside period A failed and we are now at the opposite side of it as normal.
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  • #1,856
  • Nov 30, 2016 8:22am Nov 30, 2016 8:22am
15:22+1GMT
If the situation will be preserved as it so now we have 2 further possible scenarios:

  1. a filling of the double pass pit gap upside up to 24863.
  2. or a continuation in the direction of the new pit gap downside. In this second scenario we will have the yesterday pit session working as an "island reversal"

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  • #1,857
  • Nov 30, 2016 8:25am Nov 30, 2016 8:25am
Note also that the main support here is the second weekly balance high at 24437. Acceptation below that could aventually lead to a significant correction downside. Rejection below it could instead provoke a significant retracement upside: so it is a very important reference for upcoming pit session.
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  • #1,858
  • Nov 30, 2016 8:51am Nov 30, 2016 8:51am
15:51 Note pit session action up and down open price: a lot of indecision here.
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  • #1,859
  • Nov 30, 2016 9:01am Nov 30, 2016 9:01am
Quoting Lock
Note also that the main support here is the second weekly balance high at 24437. Acceptation below that could aventually lead to a significant correction downside. Rejection below it could instead provoke a significant retracement upside: so it is a very important reference for upcoming pit session.
16:01
Tagging now major weekly ref.
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  • #1,860
  • Nov 30, 2016 9:11am Nov 30, 2016 9:11am
16:11+1GMT
Yesterday gap upside filled: for any continuation we need acceptation below major weekly ref (meaning below 24437)+ acceptation back inside Monday pit session range (meaning below 24326). If not, back to yesterday pit low at least.
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