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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #7,161
  • Nov 25, 2016 3:20am Nov 25, 2016 3:20am
AN
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Voll Verdienst, doch dichterisch, wohnt der Mensch auf der Erde.
  • #7,162
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:02am Nov 25, 2016 4:02am
Quoting Lalu
https://d1wnv178rfmrnu.cloudfront.ne...ate2.68490.pdf
Always like reading Raoul thoughts. Was reading something similar a while back but wasn't Raoul.
  • #7,163
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:29am Nov 25, 2016 4:29am
Quoting Lalu
Dax - Crabbat/Xmpp/various OHLC/10614/ {image}
Crabbat still on from here. Did a one winged butterfly at yest. low, followed by shark at open which plonks a fresh 1.618 at the crabbat. Good game this.

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #7,164
  • Nov 25, 2016 6:23am Nov 25, 2016 6:23am
Quoting fxderek
AN {image}
little cypher
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Voll Verdienst, doch dichterisch, wohnt der Mensch auf der Erde.
  • #7,165
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:24am Nov 25, 2016 8:24am
Quoting Lalu
https://d1wnv178rfmrnu.cloudfront.ne...ate2.68490.pdf
I recently noted that since 1910, the US economy is either in recession or enters a recession within twelve months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new President.


Thanks Ben, something I was aware of, but this presents it well.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,166
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:50am Nov 25, 2016 8:50am
Going to be quiet interesting next couple years. I have been closely watching political developments since the Johnson years. Never has our form of government and our capitalist economy been depressed like it has been the past eight years. Bammercare has had a devastating effect on the healthcare industry and small business. It has been excess regulations, though, that has destroyed countless small business. If Trump follows through in lifting the impediments on business overall, I think all former predictions are off. Time will tell.
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #7,167
  • Nov 25, 2016 9:21am Nov 25, 2016 9:21am
what can i say, UCHF did not filled, but EU did.
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Voll Verdienst, doch dichterisch, wohnt der Mensch auf der Erde.
  • #7,168
  • Nov 25, 2016 9:38am Nov 25, 2016 9:38am
Quoting jarhead
Going to be quiet interesting next couple years. I have been closely watching political developments since the Johnson years. Never has our form of government and our capitalist economy been depressed like it has been the past eight years. Bammercare has had a devastating effect on the healthcare industry and small business. It has been excess regulations, though, that has destroyed countless small business. If Trump follows through in lifting the impediments on business overall, I think all former predictions are off. Time will tell.
Basically, I agree but still issue of timing....Weakest recovery since depression that is long in the tooth financed by unprecedented debt and free money....We can argue the growth adjusted for debt...Change can lead to adjustment which could be recession(two quarters, easy)...Fed will be neutral/tight as of Dec 25 basis points in weak recovery....Maybe analogous to Reagan? Interesting nonetheless....Most growth has been in government controlled/interfered sectors(housing, medical)....Animal spirits is what you refer to and I agree what has been lacking....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,169
  • Nov 25, 2016 10:37am Nov 25, 2016 10:37am
Can't argue any of your points. I've always looked at things as "If I were suddenly president, what would I do?" I quit having a answer to that during the 2007-2008 meltdown. You mentioned housing - a huge bubble waiting to burst. Government still making "No down" low interest loans through the agriculture dept. Majority of these loans to people that live from one paycheck to another. The national debt and the entitlement programs seem to me to be insurmountable. They aren't being addressed. The election is over. Great majority of US citizens back to ball games, ect. figuring everything will be OK now. I desperately want to be a optimist because of my children and grandchildren. You and I, however, are realist. I do think things will get better over time, though I think we will feel the pain from dabbling in the ism's of the past 50 or so years.
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #7,170
  • Nov 25, 2016 10:46am Nov 25, 2016 10:46am
Hi Jim I hope all's well with you amigo. All good here. The weather has closed in on us for once but that's okay as we have stacks of olive wood to burn and that's just what we're doing with the odd handful of coal now and then for extra power. Time for a glass of red now I think.
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #7,171
  • Nov 25, 2016 6:41pm Nov 25, 2016 6:41pm
Hey Ben. Family fine. All had a great Thanksgiving and been breaking out the Christmas decorations all day. Redhead goes all out and I'm bout as bad. Got lots of stuff up today and will fire it all up tomorrow night. Try to post a pic. Wish you lived across the street instead of across the world. Invite y'all over -- cook a mess of ribs (over hickory charcoal - don't use gas), redhead cook up a pan of baked beans, corn on the cob, and hand cut fries. A glass of vino while inhaling the aroma of cook'in ribs is the way to go! BTW , that's a good look'in hen. Girl's (and that egg suk'in pup) lucky to have a down-to-earth dad! Have a good weekend, mate!
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #7,172
  • Nov 26, 2016 8:00am Nov 26, 2016 8:00am
All things are wearisome; Man is not able to tell it. The eye is not satisfied with seeing, Nor is the ear filled with hearing. That which has been is that which will be, And that which has been done is that which will be done. So there is nothing new under the sun. Is there anything of which one might say, "See this, it is new "? Already it has existed for ages Which were before us.…
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,173
  • Nov 26, 2016 8:40am Nov 26, 2016 8:40am
Quoting Lalu
Here's another chance for gold to find its feet. {image}
Expectation lower but good place....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,174
  • Edited 3:08pm Nov 26, 2016 2:55pm | Edited 3:08pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
All things are wearisome; Man is not able to tell it. The eye is not satisfied with seeing, Nor is the ear filled with hearing. That which has been is that which will be, And that which has been done is that which will...
Great book Ecclesiastes>

I have to admit nothing makes much sense at the moment, mixed signals. If bond prices are leading the change of the dollar and Equities? what level of yield do they need to flow away from Equities to treasuries. Bonds should lead the equities fall but by how much. Does the 2 year keep rising and invert the curve?

Source John Murphy;

- The US Dollar trends in the opposite direction of commodities.
- A Falling dollar is bullish for commodities; a rising dollar is bearish
- Commodities trend in opposite direction of Bond prices
- Commodities trend in same direction as interest rates
- Rising commodities coincide with rising interest rates and falling bond prices
- Falling commodities coincide with falling interest rates and rising bond prices
- Bond prices normally trend in same direction as stock prices
- Rising bonds prices are normally good for stock, falling bond prices are bad for stock prices
- The bond market normally changes direction ahead of stocks
- A rising dollar is good for US stocks and Bonds
- A falling dollar is bad for stocks and bonds when commodities are rising

Looking at the bond and commodities market then you would think the equities rally is on a weak leg. History of 1987 crash and prior suggests it. 1986 both the commodities stopped going down and and Bond prices stopped going up prior to the crash. In 1987 both the commodities index broke out and the bond prices crashed prior to equities crashing. In that instance equities ran another 4 or so months prior to the crash.

You cant sustain a rising bond yield like this and a continued equities run. Money will start chasing the yield in bonds. Especially those pension funds. So I think its all in the bonds market. Is it the end of the trend or just a pull back bonds. Market and verbiage would suggest that we are going to get a round of more interest rate increase at the moment.

Dont know how that will all work out for Japan trying to manipulate their 10yr bond price at the moment. Another failed policy?

Just some thoughts, Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.
  • #7,175
  • Nov 27, 2016 2:05am Nov 27, 2016 2:05am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.
http://http://biiwii.com/wp/2016/11/...nd-small-caps/
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #7,176
  • Nov 27, 2016 7:54am Nov 27, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Expectation lower but good place.... {image}
Let's see...
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,177
  • Nov 27, 2016 9:54am Nov 27, 2016 9:54am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Let's see... {image}
Hi Mr. Scott, im new trader, i hope i can join here
i amaze about your drawing i want to share my drawingmy drawing is good?
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I know one thing, that I know nothing - Socrates
  • #7,178
  • Nov 27, 2016 10:09am Nov 27, 2016 10:09am
Quoting Tamarind77
{quote} Hi Mr. Scott, im new trader, i hope i can join here i amaze about your drawing i want to share my drawingmy drawing is good? {image}
Have same additional confluence there is well that lines up with bigger chart...mine is weekly looking close
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,179
  • Nov 27, 2016 11:02am Nov 27, 2016 11:02am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Have same additional confluence there is well that lines up with bigger chart...mine is weekly looking close
thank you for your kindness
I know one thing, that I know nothing - Socrates
  • #7,180
  • Nov 27, 2016 10:05pm Nov 27, 2016 10:05pm
My thought about Oil and USDCAD correlation. Any opinion?
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I know one thing, that I know nothing - Socrates
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