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  • #1,080,841
  • Nov 19, 2016 6:40am Nov 19, 2016 6:40am
http://news.forexlive.com/!/the-ital...stake-20161119
  • #1,080,842
  • Nov 19, 2016 7:16am Nov 19, 2016 7:16am
To the fundamental guys here (not talking about religion:-p); how is this strong dollar going to effect US economy next year and further. All things point to dollar strenght in the future. But how does this effect Trump's plans for instance; he has talked a lot about losing american jobs to asia and that he wants to make it his biggest priority to reverse this. A strong dollar is not going to help this, and his half serious threat of a 25% import tax would not help if the dollar strengtens to the opposite effect.
As for tourism, even though it only makes up about 3% of the GDP, more than 8 million americans work directly in tourism and many more indirectly. Tourism is either the first, second, or third largest employer in 29 states. The strong dollar has already reduced international visitors to the US, and economists predict a strong reduction of asian and european tourists next year. This would negatively impact US emloyment.
Does Trump have a plan beyond reducing company/corporate tax?
  • #1,080,843
  • Nov 19, 2016 7:17am Nov 19, 2016 7:17am
Quoting onedollar
Wow, I hhavent seen this coming... So sick. Basically I'm stuck with 3 buy: 1st at 1.1125 2nd at 1.1034 3rd at 1.0912 I kept adding money to the account to avoid margin call, and I can do it, but now I'm lost since I'm not too sure we are going back to 1.10 soon... I could always get unstuck untill now and be profitable.... This time it looks like it is not going to happen
wow . this is forex not stocks.averaging down doesnot work because price just moved very fast and far.and what stopped you from placing a stoploss.It was going to get hit ? sure thats why stoplosses are there.if they get hit you spot your mistake and learn from it.that way you are better than that guy who keeps averaging down because he/she doesnot know what he/she is doing wrong.
  • #1,080,844
  • Nov 19, 2016 7:20am Nov 19, 2016 7:20am
so what exactly happened last week (14th - 18th nov 2016) on the euro/usd?well the currency has the longest loosing streak in its history. how does that make you bears feel? lol . go on throw a party for yourselves
  • #1,080,845
  • Nov 19, 2016 7:52am Nov 19, 2016 7:52am
Quoting strings
I would suggest hang on. On daily chart, EUR USD has touched current levels 3 times since Feb 2015 and gone up pretty quickly to 1.10 Keep an eye out on hedge funds/banks opening long positions. Fed rate hike is pretty much factored in, so I do not expect heaven and hell movements anymore because of that. Any news to the contrary however will unleash a recoil/correction against USD index. Once fed hike is over, and big traders are off for the year. Market will thin out, and that's when euro could go back up, usd jpy could go down. {quote}
I guess you are slightly wrong in your predictions, as you are making you FA only taking into account the US economy and political situation. Please look at the waiting political events in Europe and the ECB scheduled events and you will understand how wrong you are. The 1.04 is inevitable. After that the EUR has 1.02 as its last line of defense. If that gets broken - the next is parity.

NaT
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,080,846
  • Nov 19, 2016 8:45am Nov 19, 2016 8:45am
Quoting ericnyamu
{quote} wow . this is forex not stocks.averaging down doesnot work because price just moved very fast and far.and what stopped you from placing a stoploss.It was going to get hit ? sure thats why stoplosses are there.if they get hit you spot your mistake and learn from it.that way you are better than that guy who keeps averaging down because he/she doesnot know what he/she is doing wrong.
I know, trading without stops it is tue first mistake one can do.
This year till this freaking horrible time, I Made 16k profit, scalping intraday and when wrong I let the positions go back without closing them in loss, in two or three weeks.

This time is different... Normally this very sharp and quick fall should retrace a bit, and maybe go back to 1.10 zone...

But with Trump, all the talking about parity, and tue events in tue eurozone i feel like there is going to be a small retrace to 1.07 1.08 and then more down to parity.

so i may buy 1.05 up to 1.08 and then close the 1.11 and 1.09 buy positions that are now stuck....

or maybe sell for 1.04 and more down

I dunno, it's a big mess, and I'm not sure I'm gonna survive this
  • #1,080,847
  • Nov 19, 2016 8:58am Nov 19, 2016 8:58am
Quoting onedollar
{quote} I know, trading without stops it is tue first mistake one can do. This year till this freaking horrible time, I Made 16k profit, scalping intraday and when wrong I let the positions go back without closing them in loss, in two or three weeks. This time is different...

The reason why your trading worked this year is, I think, because euro was in range-bound. You can clearly see that with weekly or monthly chart.
Market always change.. focus on big picture.
Anyway, I hope that you can survive from this situation and be profitable after upgrading your strategy.
Good luck.
  • #1,080,848
  • Nov 19, 2016 9:12am Nov 19, 2016 9:12am
thanks for you
  • #1,080,849
  • Nov 19, 2016 9:39am Nov 19, 2016 9:39am
if there is correction seem less likely from current level,
maybe there is a hope around 1.046 - 1.052 area but if 1.046 also broken it does really mean bye-bye

eu - monthly
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  • #1,080,850
  • Edited 12:20pm Nov 19, 2016 10:19am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting onedollar
{quote} I know, trading without stops it is tue first mistake one can do. This year till this freaking horrible time, I Made 16k profit, scalping intraday and when wrong I let the positions go back without closing them in loss, in two or three weeks. This time is different... Normally this very sharp and quick fall should retrace a bit, and maybe go back to 1.10 zone... But with Trump, all the talking about parity, and tue events in tue eurozone i feel like there is going to be a small retrace to 1.07 1.08 and then more down to parity. so i may...
Hi onedollar! I hope you can survive this situation and come back to winning ways.
However, this has been very unfortunate situation for many traders including many rich and professional traders. A lot of money have got lost and a lot of lives has been ruined this time believe me. You are not the only one, and believe me, as I mentioned in my earlier post, with more careful disposition of your capital, you will be able to make decent profits with your strategy. Just don't overload your balance with positions if the trend goes against you for a long time. Be patient and wait. It will come back. Every action causes reaction and what goes up must go down and vise verse.

Good luck buddy.
Trade smart.

NaT
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,080,851
  • Nov 19, 2016 10:30am Nov 19, 2016 10:30am
I have a friend that have dome exactly and he just lost 20 K EURO (10 K loan from his father ). He never listen. I've told him not to buy and to wait for a correction of at least 300pips to go short and he did not listen. Margin call, he has now only 1 K in his account and he tell me to trade for him!!! I told him to f. off. And gues what, this is the second time he lose this money, last year he did this too with Gold! Thanks God he has a succesfull business in the field of microelectronics and he make a lot of money every year!!!
  • #1,080,852
  • Nov 19, 2016 10:39am Nov 19, 2016 10:39am
Quoting andexQ
if there is correction seem less likely from current level, maybe there is a hope around 1.046 - 1.052 area but if 1.046 also broken it does really mean bye-bye eu - monthly {image}
Hi andexQ! With all my respect to you knowledge your graphic looks weird to me, as I don't see the triangle you are trying to visualize.
Unfortunatelly I have no chance to post edited graphic at the moment, but I can try to tell you what I mean.
If you try to connect the lows from Nov 2008, May 2010 and Nov 2014 as support line and the highs from Mar 2008, Jul 2011 and Mar 2014 as a resistance line then you will get downwards channel. The current dollar's momentum is too strong while the Eurozone is just full of problems, which will most probably drive the price further down, and as I see it, it will hit the support at the parity level relatively soon.
I hope I managed to explain what I mean and if you understand me you could try to post a graphic describing that. I am currently with just a mobile phone in my hand.

Trade smart.

NaT
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,080,853
  • Nov 19, 2016 10:42am Nov 19, 2016 10:42am
Regarding SL, I never use a static SL, it is difficult to know where to put such SL. If, for example, I buy at 1.08 (support) I do not use static SL at 1.0730(for example) I use what I call a dynamic SL, I exit manualy if I get a 1 hr close bellow the 1.08 (if I have initiated the trade in the 1 hr TF), or a 4 hr close bellow 1.08 if I have initiated the trade in the 4 hr TF. I also reverse the trade but I wait for a retracement toward the 1.08 and I go short. Ideea is to be dynamic and not static, to change your bias as market change. But even a static SL is better than no SL, it prevents you to lose your capital. Fear of losing, yes, but this is part of this game.
  • #1,080,854
  • Edited 11:19am Nov 19, 2016 10:58am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Hi andexQ! With all my respect to you knowledge your graphic looks weird to me, as I don't see the triangle you are trying to visualize. Unfortunatelly I have no chance to post edited graphic at the moment, but I can try to tell you what I mean. If you try to connect the lows from Nov 2008, May 2010 and Nov 2014 as support line and the highs from Mar 2008, Jul 2011 and Mar 2014 as a resistance line then you will get downwards channel. The current dollar's momentum is too strong while the Eurozone is just full of problems, which will most...
Okay. Here is what I mean.
The current situation will most probably drive the price further down, and as I see it, it will hit the support at the parity level relatively soon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,080,855
  • Nov 19, 2016 11:23am Nov 19, 2016 11:23am
There is some kind of hyperoptimism regarding Trump leadership, I've never seen something like this in my life and it seems this euforia will stay in the markets for some time. I even start to think EURUSD will go under parity and GU close to parity, but not in one day or in one month. I also don't see any long time reversal atm, it means we will sell EURUSD for a very long time. This is what a trend is al about, so, I, at least, will stay with the trend, even if there will be corrections.

P.S. Europe is a mess too with very low GDP growth and with some political chalenges next month and next year and if frau Merkel will not run again things will become messier.
  • #1,080,856
  • Nov 19, 2016 11:35am Nov 19, 2016 11:35am
Quoting pipshaman
There is some kind of hyperoptimism regarding Trump leadership, I've never seen something like this in my life and it seems this euforia will stay in the markets for some time. I even start to think EURUSD will go under parity and GU close to parity, but not in one day or in one month. I also don't see any long time reversal atm, it means we will sell EURUSD for a very long time. This is what a trend is al about, so, I, at least, will stay with the trend, even if there will be corrections. P.S. Europe is a mess too with very low GDP growth and with...
Exactly my point.

NaT
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,080,857
  • Nov 19, 2016 11:44am Nov 19, 2016 11:44am
EU is running into low levels now, however there will be some large orders coming up as you can see from your own charts, unless your blind, obvious levels etc...

below the 1.04x is a break into thin air, it will more than likely be very sharp...

for a HL bulls need 1.0851 to hold otherwise we are testing those bottom figures...

a consolidation like the one in the box on a smaller time-frame is a lot easier to trade, stops are easier to set etc...

wedge formed - its hard to see a breakout coming after a 700+ drop - would mean another 400 looks likely from here...
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  • #1,080,858
  • Nov 19, 2016 12:17pm Nov 19, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting Don96
EU is running into low levels now, however there will be some large orders coming up as you can see from your own charts, unless your blind, obvious levels etc... below the 1.04x is a break into thin air, it will more than likely be very sharp... for a HL bulls need 1.0851 to hold otherwise we are testing those bottom figures... a consolidation like the one in the box on a smaller time-frame is a lot easier to trade, stops are easier to set etc... wedge formed - its hard to see a breakout coming after a 700+ drop - would mean another 400 looks likely...
Don, "bulls need 1.0851 to hold ..." You wanted to say 1.0551...???
  • #1,080,859
  • Nov 19, 2016 12:57pm Nov 19, 2016 12:57pm
First of all Thank you guys for your support. Between the two scenarios ( A) Quick fast retrace to 1.08 or more. OR B) Keep going down till 1.04 and more )
I have to take a decision for my exit plan.
Let's say I don't want to lose more than 20k.
SITUATION:
EURUSD buy 1.11250 Lots: 5.00
EURUSD buy 1.10343 Lots: 5.00
EURUSD buy 1.09129 Lots: 5.00
Balance at 1.05879 is - 63k
leverage: 1:100
Free margin 140% but I can add more to avoid any margin call.

What would you do at market open ?
Long 5.00 Lots if the price doesn't break down 1.04
or Short something like 10 Lots trying to headge and locking the loss ??
  • #1,080,860
  • Nov 19, 2016 12:59pm Nov 19, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting Don96
EU is running into low levels now, however there will be some large orders coming up as you can see from your own charts, unless your blind, obvious levels etc... below the 1.04x is a break into thin air, it will more than likely be very sharp... for a HL bulls need 1.0851 to hold otherwise we are testing those bottom figures... a consolidation like the one in the box on a smaller time-frame is a lot easier to trade, stops are easier to set etc... wedge formed - its hard to see a breakout coming after a 700+ drop - would mean another 400 looks likely...
Excuse my alteration..but what if?

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