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  • #145,401
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:14pm Nov 17, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} For example Cad pairs might be nice tomorrow..... {image}
And eu will be nice soon enough as well I'm guessing. Watching action and reaction around the coming FED/ECB. I think rather than attempting to get in sync with more pairs I should get better in sync with this one but never mind about me. Mostly just wanted to congratulate those who rode it.
  • #145,402
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:20pm Nov 17, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} And eu will be nice soon enough as well I'm guessing. Watching action and reaction around the coming FED/ECB. I think rather than attempting to get in sync with more pairs I should get better in sync with this one but never mind about me. Mostly just wanted to congratulate those who rode it.
Sure. And I wanted to make you feel better because once we master mapping there are many many ways to get in the saddle even with small mistakes.
PVSRA
  • #145,403
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:22pm Nov 17, 2016 12:22pm
Thanks all for sharing the knowledge, beautiful journey despite I watched along lately. A little gift:

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  • #145,404
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:23pm Nov 17, 2016 12:23pm
Good leg guys and gals, congrats to those that rode it- and thanks to all the contributors. Been the best month for me since coming back to this thread under sisse's direction....and that's due 100% to the conversations and analysis we all provide each other on a daily basis, which keeps all of our heads on a swivel and most importantly on the right side of the market. I'm thankful to be part of this team

Keep an eye on 1.0580, it's wanted.
  • #145,405
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:27pm Nov 17, 2016 12:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}well, as noted above, I'll be putting some skittles on a negative reaction to the Dec FOMC/Dec 19 EC combo.....not so much because I think that will occur, but because the reward:risk for being right on that will be quite phat, imho....
I think you'll win regardless- because I'm expecting a fall @ rate hikes. Then btfd.

Wont be taking any options myself, but I would like to drop some loot on an e-mini. Going to be hard pressed to get me in options again outside of some hedging I'd like to delve into later on.

also need to figure out how I want to rearrange my Roths. Probably q2 looking to move 75-80% equities and just leaving it the hell alone over the next 30 years
  • #145,406
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:30pm Nov 17, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Good leg guys and gals, congrats to those that rode it- and thanks to all the contributors. Been the best month for me since coming back to this thread under sisse's direction....and that's due 100% to the conversations and analysis we all provide each other on a daily basis, which keeps all of our heads on a swivel and most importantly on the right side of the market. I'm thankful to be part of this team Keep an eye on 1.0580, it's wanted.
Mind that bellow 0580 we are opening further downards targets of large structure likely. Altough that very much depends on what kind of rejection are we going to get down there, and also ofcourse there could be larger pullback before further downards targets are reached. 0580 or perhaps 0500ish holdup would be good to see to confirm further downwards targets bellow parity. We are just testing the possible expansion levels it looks like we will get the infos around or at ECB/FED event, it matches the timing window. Same time previous year we got flop, market was on the train wagon and got floped by ECB FED combo (400 pip rally, plus parity goodbye for whole year), so i am not forcing anything at all just watching for confirmations from price action and events.

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  • #145,407
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:38pm Nov 17, 2016 12:38pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Mind that bellow 0580 we are opening further downards targets of large structure likely. Altough that very much depends on what kind of rejection are we going to get down there, and also ofcourse there could be larger pullback before further downards targets are reached. 0580 or perhaps 0500ish holdup would be good to see to confirm further downwards targets bellow parity. We are just testing the possible expansion levels it looks like we will get the infos around or at ECB/FED event, it matches the timing window. Same time previous year...
Yup, same here. No real plan until FED. I do expect 1.058x to hold until
  • #145,408
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:48pm Nov 17, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I think you'll win regardless- because I'm expecting a fall @ rate hikes. Then btfd. Wont be taking any options myself, but I would like to drop some loot on an e-mini. Going to be hard pressed to get me in options again outside of some hedging
I am always working both directions and something also for flat. Re: options - if you aren't interested or cant't find the time (or whatever) to learn to trade the basic spread strategies, options are a dangerous vehicle. (That is true for futures, too, imo.) Only occasionally do I trade straight long puts or calls. But if you have some strong conviction and want to take a shot, why not? For instance, I bought a pile of XLF Dec 23 $24 calls a few weeks back for $2/contract - worth $14 today, I expect I will see $20....
l
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,409
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:59pm Nov 17, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I am always working both directions and something also for flat. Re: options - if you aren't interested or cant't find the time (or whatever) to learn to trade the basic spread strategies, options are a dangerous vehicle. (That is true for futures, too, imo.) Only occasionally do I trade straight long puts or calls. But if you have some strong conviction and want to take a shot, why not? For instance, I bought a pile of XLF Dec 23 $24 calls a few weeks back for $2/contract - worth $14 today, I expect I will see $20.... l
I agree with you. I think it behooves a trader to know all vehicles....not to be an expert in all, but to know all. And for that invariably one has to lose/make money trading the various vehicles. So yes, I do suppose I'll need to get back up on that option horse again Like you've said, the basic spreads should be known, and that's an area where I fucked up the first time....will have to do it right the next time around
  • #145,410
  • Nov 17, 2016 1:21pm Nov 17, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting Pharm0r
the basic spreads should be known, and that's an area where I fucked up the first time....will have to do it right the next time around
anywhere you find people trading options for a living, they'll generally be trading spreads. If they're a market maker, they're buying/selling options all over the place, which means they are managing a big book of spreads. Spread traders have better chances of keeping their losses in check. And as PTL and I were discussing above, a trader who steadily grows his stake will have that ready when the obvious homerun opps come around.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,411
  • Nov 17, 2016 1:55pm Nov 17, 2016 1:55pm
How can we explain the disappearance of bulls for 9 days so far?
I'm not convinced that rising the rate by .25 is THE reason of USD strengths. Something behind the scene will happen sooner than later, before FOMC.
  • #145,412
  • Nov 17, 2016 2:49pm Nov 17, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting sisse
1.061x ia key ECB rate differentials Support obviously in flawless time for the ECB/FED combo. Hikes dec are +95℅ already digested but ECB has the ultimate key for the rest of the year and a bit beyond.
Dollar in full control of the board completing the expectations ride on hikes DEC. Officially we are turning the page in currencies, next chapter in Dollar is inflation picking up and how many hikes for next year after Trump but before we have ECB in full control. Expecting the currency board to start shifting from Dollar to Euro* until ECB.

We couldn't completed Yen final ext target by crumbs but expecting to be completed with Tokyo. Whatever the case will be clearing time before the W close.

Euro trading air and completing 1.061x and sisse for the first time this Quarter will be (bar yen tomorrow) officially flat across the FX board but more importantly since 28/Sep and for strictly Fundamental value reasons until further data :

--> Changing Euro short term outlook from Sell to Neutral.

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sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,413
  • Nov 17, 2016 2:52pm Nov 17, 2016 2:52pm
Not sure how many of you here are following micro/short term movements, but its quite obvious in past few weeks that EUR is following XUSD structural targets well while GBP is laging behind in majority of micro structures. This also reflects well in mid term targets as EUR is pushing clearly into new LLs, while GBP is ranging. XUSD targets apply well to majority of currencies but GBP should be lagging or even outperforming the rest, so far it has and there is a room to go.

Lets see the Friday, a strong bull move on USD with holdup and weekly close would be interesting to see, opens up some interesting further levels.
Interesting enough TRY outperformed MXN on negative momentum, a bit of surprise there, unless i missed something.
  • #145,414
  • Nov 17, 2016 2:57pm Nov 17, 2016 2:57pm
... --> Changing Euro short term outlook from Sell to Neutral. {image} sisse[/quote]
I've a stupid question Sisse: When you change the outlook, the current PA is it the middle/low/high of the range?
  • #145,415
  • Nov 17, 2016 2:57pm Nov 17, 2016 2:57pm
Quoting janpec1000
Not sure how many of you here are following ...o majority of currencies but GBP should be lagging or even outperforming the rest, so far it has and there is a room to go. ...
For your reference, we updated outlook in Sterling* a couple of weeks ago to neutral after the Court decision. There is a few other follow ups. But basically US stole the thunder for a few weeks after Trump. Expecting things to get noisier (a lot noisier) for the end of the year while the populist government will go in a full PR rampage before the turbulent next year....

Quoting sisse
Updates from the UK front... t....Whatever the case, hard brexit and 100% isolation suffering a short term setback today until appeal after appeal and political BS etc etc takes place so: --> Changing short term outlook in Sterling from Sell to soft Neutral till further data.
sisse

Quoting Fadhl
... --> Changing Euro short term outlook from Sell to Neutral. {image} sisse I've a stupid question Sisse: When you change the outlook, the current PA is it the middle/low/high of the range?
Outlooks 8 out 10 times only change for fundamental reasons not on purely technical ones. We are in rate differentials fundamental value ..we need more that data to see if we unlock the final leg in the mid term swing or we chop around and retrace until next year...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,416
  • Nov 17, 2016 3:02pm Nov 17, 2016 3:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Dollar in full control of the board completing the expectations ride on hikes DEC. Officially we are turning the page in currencies, next chapter in Dollar is inflation picking up and how many hikes for next year after Trump but before we have ECB in full control. Expecting the currency board to start shifting from Dollar to Euro* until ECB. We couldn't completed Yen final ext target by crumbs but expecting to be completed with Tokyo. Whatever the case will be clearing time before the W close. Euro trading air and completing 1.061x and sisse...


..and why will you stay flat and not looking for longs EU ( from bottom- extreme to the middle) ?
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PVSRA
  • #145,417
  • Nov 17, 2016 3:04pm Nov 17, 2016 3:04pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Changing Euro short term outlook from Sell to Neutral. {image} sisse
Earlier than I expected but completely reasonable
  • #145,418
  • Nov 17, 2016 3:07pm Nov 17, 2016 3:07pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Outlooks 8 out 10 times only change for fundamental reasons not on purely technical ones. We are in rate differentials fundamental value ..we need more that data to see if we unlock the final leg in the mid term swing or we chop around and retrace until next year... sisse
Ok, got your answer. I'll still try some UChf shorts. We do have stops after all..
PVSRA
  • #145,419
  • Nov 17, 2016 3:32pm Nov 17, 2016 3:32pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Ok, got your answer. I'll still try some UChf shorts. We do have stops after all..
Just to add to the answer. A couple of points:

 

  1. Lets assume only short term neutral you want to fade the extremes. Where is the bottom extreme? Do we have it yet? Does changing outlook means calling the low? .... not really isn't....a change in outlook just means that the path of least resistances is no longer to the short side but to now one side or the other will be tradable, nothing more, nothing else ...and more importantly
  2. Where is the direction? (meaning mid term)...you can ask Imarich now he is an expert on this part )... we still short, isn't it...remember direction first inner ebb and flow later.... and finally
  3. Why even trading on the doldrums of the day, no reports, no nothing in a 700 tick non stop selloff ....


On CHF, not really agree with you on that one we changed after Trump but GL ...

Quoting sisse
8th and important update from US election in the FX front: ---> --> Changing mid term outlook in CHF from Untradable BUY to SELL
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,420
  • Nov 17, 2016 3:39pm Nov 17, 2016 3:39pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Just to add to the answer. A couple of points: Lets assume only short term neutral you want to fade the extremes. Where is the bottom extreme? Do we have it yet? Does changing outlook means calling the low? .... not really isn't....a change in outlook just means that the path of least resistances is no longer to the short side but to now one side or the other will be tradable, nothing more, nothing else ...and more importantly Where is the direction? (meaning mid term)...you can ask Imarich now he is an expert on this part )......
Yes, mostly agree that's why I picked CadChf short ( instead of selling oil) for now. But If I get nice topping out clues Uchf next days then there is juicy 150-200 pips in play.
That's 10 times bigger then I used to trade a while ago..
PVSRA
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