The Really Useless Thread | Page 7253 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,041
  • Nov 9, 2016 12:32pm Nov 9, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting sisse
We were here when the conversation was derail into politics.... {quote} Well I was more interesting for tonight to build maps flows for timing and trading rather that the actual election results. --> Basically by +/- 01:00 GMT (08:00pmEST) we will get FL exit polls. If the margin is large we pretty much will see markets switching and killing the risk off mode as statistically the odds will be nearly zero for a surprise. We trade expectation not facts and the early you get in .... Assuming all the earlier results before FL and exit polls goes +/-inline...
Here is something interestng for fun, guys.It is in Slovenian language, but I will translate. You can also google translate if you want...

" If I would ever run for president I would do it for republicans. Because their voters are the most stupid and they believe everything they see on Fox TV. I could lie and they would swallow everything.
I bet I would be very successful "

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trump's statement from 1998.jpg Size: 390 KB


Well- look at it from the bright side- at least first lady is not Bill Clinton.
PVSRA
  • #145,042
  • Nov 9, 2016 12:39pm Nov 9, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Here is something interestng for fun, guys.It is in Slovenian language, but I will translate. You can also google translate if you want... " If I would ever run for president I would do it for republicans. Because their voters are the most stupid and they believe everything they see on Fox TV. I could lie and they would swallow everything. I bet I would be very successful " {image} Well- look at it from the bright side- at least first lady is not Bill Clinton.
Considering his running rhetoric...if he lied that wouldnt be all that bad.
  • #145,043
  • Nov 9, 2016 12:43pm Nov 9, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Agree with you there Chester- I'd like to see an EU army. My thoughts are that NATO doesn't disintegrate or that EU gets and Army, and the Trade deals either don't get eradicated OR better ones go in place. That combined with friendly ties to Russia still seems good to me. If you want world fuckin peace- we all have to get along. Therefor; I am not against making friends of our enemies. Again- I understand that's probably naive.
Sorry don't get me wrong but you sound a bit confuse on this one. Why Russia is the US enemy right now? Why EU army? What doest the EU has to do with Russian taking back the Caspian see or asserting control over the East and EuroAsia front? or their influence over Syria and the M.East? ...

'Democracies' like Russia can and are playing the long game. Putin alone has already seen Bush, 2 Obamas and now Trump and probably will see the next one too. Election here or there, smiles, friends and foes, photo ops, carrots and sticks are just pawn and steps in a chess game...and for this particular move Trump US is just a mean not atn end goal....

I am not sure you have an international relation background but things are lot more complex than an old fashion US/Russia nuclear/spy cold war Hollywood movie.

....There is way too much REALLY important market things happening right now and the topic is really out of scope here. Let's leave it there for now, we can surely discuss it over the weekend or via PM and more importantly we can put a market/trading side to it to make it relevant ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,044
  • Nov 9, 2016 12:51pm Nov 9, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am not sure you have an international relation background...
Is it that obvious?

Just your typical ignorant American over here.. anyways- as you wish!
  • #145,045
  • Edited 1:11pm Nov 9, 2016 12:52pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Agree with you there Chester- I'd like to see an EU army. My thoughts are that NATO doesn't disintegrate or that EU gets and Army, and the Trade deals either don't get eradicated OR better ones go in place. That combined with friendly ties to Russia still seems good to me. If you want world fuckin peace- we all have to get along. Therefor; I am not against making friends of our enemies. Again- I understand that's probably naive.
I agree with that one as well. The recent course of US-Russia relations in absolutely terrible and has to be restared. With Clinton that would not happen most likely. With Trump - the problem is Trump needs to understand that there are unspoken intentions of Russian which can turn very evil for Europe and whole global security.

Just a though on russia generally (not disputing your post)- I think its a problem of narrative, which US does not understand. Russia considers post-soviet area as its influence territory - which historically protects it against enemies (think of Napoleon, Hitler) and will not let it be penetrated by NATO - one example of this narrative is the concept of limited sovereignity of Warsaw agreement states defined by Breznev and guaranteeing the right to intervene any time the socialist state is "endangered". Another example is the problem of the crazy discussion about the promise of US to Gorbacov in 90s that NATO will not spread to that area. Its existence was disputed by US, later argued that it was not legaly binding promise. Plus the russian concept crashes with the concept of sovereign states of post-soviet area, which can decide their destiny and west-east orientation. I think europe understands that - thats why EU never promised to Ukrain an EU membership and took very cautious approaach (guess why US was not part of the Minsk round on Ukrain and Russia? - cuz it would not have the understanding for the situation). And so to some extent that russian narative has to be taken into account =) how to define the exact policies? I do not know. Thats why we have politicans to state them but they have to understand the historical context.

But on that account - big mistake would be to retreat from that area or to make huge concessions as the russian lion is definitely hungry and feels the opportunity to hunt. The russian lion in my view has in some phases lived in some kind of denial - in history: there were tries to modernize russia (peter the great, katherine the great) but it never worked. Europe was always cyclically the loved and hated alter ego, which russian could not reach (economically, culturally) and so it retreated to denial of western/liberal/secular values through tradition and orthodoxy (the best example: Brothers Caramazov by Dostoyevsky - Ivan and Alexey disputes about rationalism/atheism/freedom and God/churh/tradition - that is a perfect ilustration of the historical dialectic between europe and russia). And right now we are in the cycle of denial in my view.

P.S.: I do not share any determined kind of cyclical concept of future/history. Its just for illustration and history interpretation.
  • #145,046
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:08pm Nov 9, 2016 1:08pm
Great write up- thank you chester. Glad to be surrounded by so much knowledge on such a wide array of issues in this thread
  • #145,047
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:17pm Nov 9, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Be careful you don't confuse the lagger explanation in the main media of the last knee jerk reaction with the actual flows in play .. What you are reading and quoting there is long gone and is only describing the clearing of risk hedges that where taken before elections which is irrelevant for trading right now. ..as soon as we got a clear winner, markets just clear risk hedges and went back to the same flows. all short term risk hedges are off now so track, trade and clear same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse
Thanks sisse. Just for clarity, my post earlier was just in response to your changing of long-term dollar outlook from buy to neutral and wasn't intended as an explanation of today's price movements but rather as a consideration for possible future dollar strengthening. However it was great to see and have it explained first hand how the risk plays were cleared and then gave way to the original directional flows again ..."same levels, same trades, same all...."
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,048
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:36pm Nov 9, 2016 1:36pm
After the US Elections with the results we know, do you think New-Zealand might have a rate cut?
  • #145,049
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:49pm Nov 9, 2016 1:49pm
Quoting The Fool
this BTFD V has gotten to be the only thing you need to know in equity trading. Combine with healthy dose of pure luck....maybe you catch one if you don't go out to take a piss
uncanny, this US election played out almost exactly like the Brexit vote did back in June. All the best trades were on the front-end, on the expectations....action after the fact was too fast and unpredictable to trade. Ironically, all the long SPX and SPY trades I set up in anticipation of a market rally on a Clinton win - well they will likely make money anyway.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,050
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:54pm Nov 9, 2016 1:54pm
Great day for trading with major flows and expectations changing.

This is a very big one:

  1. Fourth key update from US election and after nearly 4 years!!!:

--> Changing long term outlook in US Equities from Buy to Neutral
.
sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,051
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:56pm Nov 9, 2016 1:56pm
Quoting sisse
Great day for trading with major flows and expectations changing. This is a very big one: Fourth key update from US election and after nearly 4 years!!!: --> Changing long term outlook in US Equities from Buy to Neutral . sisse
I take it we're looking as soon as December FOMC to establish mid to long term top in Equities? I hesitate to use long term....as long term there has never been a top
  • #145,052
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:57pm Nov 9, 2016 1:57pm

  1. 5th Update from US election:

--> Changing long term outlook in Euro from Sell to Soft Sell [exhaustion leg only left]

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,053
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:58pm Nov 9, 2016 1:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}uncanny, this US election played out almost exactly like the Brexit vote did back in June. All the best trades were on the front-end, on the expectations....action after the fact was too fast and unpredictable to trade. Ironically, all the long SPX and SPY trades I set up in anticipation of a market rally on a Clinton win - well they will likely make money anyway.
It's feverish isnt it? No matter what- btfd

Asteroid hit new york? hope you btfd- because the day they get electricity back we'll see new highs
  • #145,054
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:03pm Nov 9, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting sisse
--> Changing long term outlook in US Equities from Buy to Neutral . sisse
idk, if Trump hits the ground running and talks Stimulus (note capital S) and doesn't freak markets out (yet) with trade-war saber-rattling, then perhaps we can see a good rally in the near to mid term
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,055
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:24pm Nov 9, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}idk, if Trump hits the ground running and talks Stimulus (note capital S) and doesn't freak markets out (yet) with trade-war saber-rattling, then perhaps we can see a good rally in the near to mid term
...in Neutral ....you trade to the inside, fading the highs ....

Really I wouldn't read anything during the post election party. There is nothing to see neither to analyse on his policy front today and prolly this whole month.... Is time to clear the current flows for the year first and get ready for next year from next month onwards...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,056
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:26pm Nov 9, 2016 2:26pm

  1. 6th update from US election:

--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from Neutral to Soft Sell

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,057
  • Edited 2:49pm Nov 9, 2016 2:30pm | Edited 2:49pm

  1. 7th update from US election:

--> Changing mid term outlook in Yen from soft Buy to Buy

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,058
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:32pm Nov 9, 2016 2:32pm

  1. 8th and important update from US election in the FX front:

--> Changing mid term outlook in CHF from Untradable BUY to SELL

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,059
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:34pm Nov 9, 2016 2:34pm
Quoting sisse
8th and important update from US election in the FX front: --> Changing mid term outlook in CHF from Untradable BUY to SELL sisse
Is it all CHF pairs or just USDCHF?
  • #145,060
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:44pm Nov 9, 2016 2:44pm

  1. 9th updated from US election again in the Commodities front:

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from Neutral to Soft Sell

sisse

PS: @Fadh CHF as single currency no as pair

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
21 traders viewing now