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  • #145,201
  • Nov 14, 2016 12:31pm Nov 14, 2016 12:31pm
Personally screwed that up right good. Had a great short entry but closed it early at the flip. Should have stuck to my guns, would be sitting nicely now. Let myself get jittery about effects of US election instead of eyes on the map. Then saw a bounce where there was no bounce (wish I could blame it on the beers like hoom but for me more than likely just wishful chartfitting a new short.) Sigh. Old habits die hard.
  • #145,202
  • Nov 14, 2016 12:37pm Nov 14, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting sisse
... Can you plot for yourself the trade/risk management investment profile and the trader profile for the mid term range you are referring?... sisse
This is one of the last topics open in the thread and it was an advanced one ... sisse never leave a conversation open and this one is probably the most powerful update in the last few months.

@hoom

The Euro case (a short term leg from a mid term swing) we used for the conversation panned out FLAWLESSLY. This is honestly a spectacular live example to wrap up the point on RISK PROFILE, SCENARIOS and TRADE MANAGEMENT. Absolutely everything that needs to be say is in there. From mapping a trade to risk and position management. All, in a before and after chart, with tons of posts in between to dig in each topic of conversation.

For those looking for answers, if you don't find them in this update chart, just ignore everything and look somewhere else as it will be impossible to exemplify in a REAL LIVE TRADING a swing, risk and position management like this ....

Not many comment as charts are self explanatory.

This was the Before the fact sketch we were using (check back posts to follow the conversation):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: before.png Size: 349 KB


This on is After the fact with the real live tradingas per today:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: after.png Size: 158 KB


Following the same assumptions we used for the case in terms of size and leverage. This is a clean +/-4k trade using a $1 x tick with a max risk of $300. That should be a decent and realistic benchmark on risk, performance (nearly 84% of the range...is not over yet but irrelevant now) and trade management for a short term swing ....

This conversation is set and close. I hope you get your answers now that you can read back from start to finish ...

sisse

PS: WTF is wrong with FF ...take forever to load and keep crashing?
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,203
  • Nov 14, 2016 12:44pm Nov 14, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Guess Europe didnt feel like waiting for us in the West before taking the lows
i told you to come over the atlantic
  • #145,204
  • Edited 1:04pm Nov 14, 2016 12:53pm | Edited 1:04pm
amazing on the whole excerise simply amazing



In any case, GL, looks tempting but dont like neither the area nor the circumstances in both DOLAR and OIL to take shorts ...


I would love to know , what spooked you about OIL at these levels..... maybe I am premature in asking ......as we are bouncing at mo and looking like we will close above support.

bows and walks backwards towards door

regards
seems the old villain ' SA tweet machine ' back in action
  • #145,205
  • Nov 14, 2016 1:22pm Nov 14, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting primejarvis
Closed 75℅ of midterm trades ... Dont want to be more greedy ... 20℅ will be closed either in trailing or the test of the low or below ... It was a good trade but tested my nerve system rigorously... Anyways not planning to trade until next ecb ... But if gets good levels will surely takes an entry ... We are in expensive tickets zone so expecting the returns to be same ...
goosebone

  1. Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Member | 650 Posts

Personally screwed that up right good. Had a great short entry but closed it early at the flip. Should have stuck to my guns, would be sitting nicely now. Let myself get jittery about effects of US election instead of eyes on the map. Then saw a bounce where there was no bounce (wish I could blame it on the beers like hoom but for me more than likely just wishful chartfitting a new short.) Sigh. Old habits die hard.

Yeah, blink and you miss. Although I'd gone with sisse's option c) last Friday of continuation down, I didn't have the courage of my own convictions to place additional shorts (unlike "glassblower", good call mate!), but instead went safe and only placed some short limits between the 1.0960 - 1.0980 levels and above Friday's close in case of a small pullback first, which of course never happened ..old habits indeed!
At least I was able to partially close some of my other shorts from higher up as we dropped down today while still holding the rest in case of further breakdown later ...so am definitely not complaining. Would be great if we could make an assault towards sisse's 1.0640 area tomorrow, then I'd certainly happily cave in and close the rest ...well ... maybe still leave some crumbs on for a possible sub 1.06 handle dessert ha ha!

The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,206
  • Edited 2:00pm Nov 14, 2016 1:31pm | Edited 2:00pm
Eyes on the close. Bond markets keep shaking under the table. They are smelling blood. We are aligning for a very sharp leg to 2013 levels, keeping an extremely close eye failure to hold the current lows, unlock a clean sweep of major proportions in Treasuries.

For today. Euro 1.072x for the roll to unlock the extension rather quickly ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,207
  • Nov 14, 2016 1:42pm Nov 14, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting sisse
Eyes on the close. Bond markets keep shaking under the table. They are smelling blood. We are aligning for a very sharp leg to 2013 levels, keeping an extremely close eye failure to hold the current lows, unlock a clean sweep of major proportions in Treasuries. For today. Euro 1.1072x for the roll to unlock the extension rather quickly .... sisse
I imagine you meant 1.072x
  • #145,208
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:16pm Nov 14, 2016 2:16pm
@sisse

Perfect wrap up , it leaves no doubt that it is not a matter of holy grail but a deep knowledge and "savoir faire" in terms of MM and market proper analysis .
Thank you mate and keep rocking

PS: FF need to sort the website problems as soon as possible , this is taking too much time !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,209
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:25pm Nov 14, 2016 2:25pm
Quoting sisse
Eyes on the close. Bond markets keep shaking under the table. They are smelling blood. We are aligning for a very sharp leg to 2013 levels, keeping an extremely close eye failure to hold the current lows, unlock a clean sweep of major proportions in Treasuries.
US 10yr yield up 30 bps in just last 4 trading days (long bond up 35). If this keeps up, what do you think will be the implication for US equities? (softball 4ya...)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,210
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:39pm Nov 14, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting nutts
I would love to know , what spooked you about OIL at these levels..... maybe I am premature in asking ......as we are bouncing at mo and looking like we will close above support.
Probably this: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=614952

Good thing I closed my OIL short I took this morning. Sisse's reaction (him not feeling comfortable to take oil short at current circumstances) made me nervous heheh. Looks like he was right and something was cooking.
  • #145,211
  • Nov 14, 2016 3:04pm Nov 14, 2016 3:04pm
What a nice wrap up!

I specifically noticed there was no adding of positions between levels, just at one level multiple times....
  • #145,212
  • Edited 3:54pm Nov 14, 2016 3:43pm | Edited 3:54pm
+++Fundamental reading alert ...for those interesting in FA this is a core advanced topic ...feel free to jump in with opinions, comments or questions ..for those looking for TA, basic flows and etc feel free to skip this reading ..

Quoting The Fool
{quote}US 10yr yield up 30 bps in just last 4 trading days (long bond up 35). If this keeps up, what do you think will be the implication for US equities? (softball 4ya...)
--> ...already changed long term outlook to neutral last week. On mid term we are on the brink of forming a cluster fck with rates, in the short term is nothing to see trading the fumes before year's end.

--> Bonds macro move is already in motion like always way before any other market in major legs. Yields will push higher next year, pulling money from Equities until we complete the core of the hikes cycle (we have only 1 already, 1 to come but expecting the next 2 or 3 quicker and cleaner) via inflation.

--> However, Trump has created a will card that is aligning to create the cluster fck in the mid term. Expansionary and inflationary policy seems to be the early consensus with protectionist, inward looking policies and heavy burden on the budget from the fiscal side. Expecting debt to skyrocket and budget to get deep in deficit via tax cuts and expansionary spending (infrastructure and public expending and all that).

--> This obviously will be a push for the economy and Equities, however inflation and risk especially from Europe first and later from Trump itself (if he walks the talk on foreign policy and international trade) combined with Bonds via rates will be hard pull factors (thus the cluster fck in the making).

--> Short term, we are not trading anything right now until the FED. The high of the year is not set yet but it looks around the corner if we fail to take the highs in the next few sessions. ECB pulling the plug in QE will be enough to trigger big hand to close the year in global Equities early and start positioning for next year and beyond with FED hikes DEC....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,213
  • Nov 14, 2016 3:57pm Nov 14, 2016 3:57pm
Quoting sisse
+++Fundamental reading alert ...for those interesting in FA this is a core advanced topic ...feel free to jump in with opinions, comments or questions ..for those looking for TA, basic flows and etc feel free to skip this reading .. {quote} --> ...already changing with long term outlook to neutral last week.
I had thought we would see some new ath's by about the 1st week of Dec to Xmas, and then a meh slide - pretty much a repeat of last years post Dec FOMC action. That was before DJT was elected (clueless) King of the World. I will hazard changing the meh slide to a omg crap & blow a hole in pants correction. Watching FANG action, the names that led the equity bubble inflation appear now to be first to deflate. Financials been having a wet dream, all about the rollback of Dodd-Frank. But that may not happen. In fact, who the f knows what will happen re: Trump policies? I guess honeymoon will last long enough to see the Dec FOMC pop a 25 bp hike, then we'll see. I need to get on DJT's Twitter....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,214
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:11pm Nov 14, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I had thought we would see some new ath's by about the 1st week of Dec to Xmas, and then a meh slide - pretty much a repeat of last years post Dec FOMC action. That was before DJT was elected (clueless) King of the World. I will hazard changing the meh slide to a omg crap & blow a hole in pants correction. Watching FANG action, the names that led the equity bubble inflation appear now to be first to deflate. Financials been having a wet dream, all about the rollback of Dodd-Frank. But that may not happen. In fact, who the f knows what will...
Europe, the UK first and prolly Italy will take care to put us back to reality soon. Honeymoon for Trump will end, strangely not in the US, but in France deciding to push the world to the brink if they join the populist/nationalist US/UK party and vote for the Neonazis putting the West upside down ready for a debacle of major proportions...

For now, moves in bonds, currencies and commodities ....next year will have some fun with Equities...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,215
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:19pm Nov 14, 2016 4:19pm
Looks like I'm going to have to hit up the ol' education on bonds TDA offers

this whole up is down hurts my brain
  • #145,216
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:25pm Nov 14, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Looks like I'm going to have to hit up the ol' education on bonds TDA offers this whole up is down hurts my brain
TLT options are liquid
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,217
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:32pm Nov 14, 2016 4:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Europe, the UK first and prolly Italy will take care to put us back to reality soon. ... sisse
you don't mean this Dec 04 referendum in Italy, do you? I have been trying to find time to read about that...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,218
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:35pm Nov 14, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}TLT options are liquid
Thanks

I need to study.... once you guys start getting into bonds I get the homer simpson monkey in my head

Inserted Video
  • #145,219
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:41pm Nov 14, 2016 4:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}. I need to get on DJT's Twitter....
Been on it last few months. It's....well...exhausting. like you got cornered by the drunk guy at the party all night. But there's a few nuggets stuffed between the Tourettes-like implosions and shamelessly high fiving himself every few minutes.
  • #145,220
  • Nov 14, 2016 5:00pm Nov 14, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Thanks I need to study....
I read this one. If the rates ever go way up again I might buy some bonds, meanwhile I just trade TLT and HYG options.....

https://www.amazon.com/Bond-Book-Thi...=the+bond+book
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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