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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,721
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:28am Sep 30, 2016 9:28am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} 2nd question : How come a so trade-able currency can stall at one range for such a long time ... isn't this what we call manipulation? .....
Why can't you call it consolidation? Or chop for that matter. Not even all that narrow. Why does it need to be a conspiracy? Doesn't look like anything I've never seen before, even from my noob's eye view.
  • #143,722
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:15am Sep 30, 2016 10:15am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} i have seen countless times this short of manipulation or in your language consolidation ..... if not last was on december 2014 .... its a conspiracy ... how come everything is aligned right on time ..... if you dont see it with your eyes thats really not my problem... but the fact is a fact ....
Anyway, it doesn't matter for us. Nothing we can do with it. Forex market is not globally regulated. Inside trading is legal most places. Anyway if we trade this way that Sisse is teaching us we should manage to come out profitable.

Actually my question is: Where do you want with this? What you want to point out so we can do something different / better?
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,723
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:20am Sep 30, 2016 10:20am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Anyway, it doesn't matter for us. Nothing we can do with it. Forex market is not globally regulated. Inside trading is legal most places. Anyway if we trade this way that Sisse is teaching us we should manage to come out profitable. Actually my question is: Where do you want with this? What you want to point out so we can do something different / better?
i dont want to point out anything .... nothing .... leave it ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,724
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:20am Sep 30, 2016 10:20am
This went from a multitude of different traders with different backgrounds with different ideas and superb trading discussion to a sisse hand-out thread

Don't think that was sisse's intention...then again maybe it was
  • #143,725
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:25am Sep 30, 2016 10:25am
Quoting Pharm0r
This went from a multitude of different traders with different backgrounds with different ideas and superb trading discussion to a sisse hand-out thread Don't think that was sisse's intention...then again maybe it was
Anyway he is a great mentor
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,726
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:27am Sep 30, 2016 10:27am
Well, manipulation or not. Its clear there are certain subjects that can "manipulate" the market in their advance by intentionally using some high-impact information in the right time. If it happened today we do not know. Seems likely though as the timing was very very suspicios for the EU close.

Well see if DOJ confirms. In any case Im glad as I did not pull the trigger in DAX yet so would be very glad if we revision the top of the short term range on MO/TUE. In any case.... still bet that even reducing the fine is not a solution which can last longer than several days. As sisse says it will come back... as what goes around comes around.

Hmm, and we go for the NY close. Ill try to post some maps during the weekend. However, not much has changed. Just E/U and DAX short term outlook.

Quoting Pharm0r
This went from a multitude of different traders with different backgrounds with different ideas and superb trading discussion to a sisse hand-out thread Don't think that was sisse's intention...then again maybe it was
no matter his intention. thank god it happened. and still there are some discussions going on. I do not think its only one-sided.
  • #143,727
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:34am Sep 30, 2016 10:34am
one thing which i see is according to the chart is we are not going to see parity .....

the parity chapter is closed....
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,728
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:44am Sep 30, 2016 10:44am
All clear and we are ready for the round of M closes and to wrap up all the pending topics for the week ....

Quoting primejarvis
... i see is that the CB's wants the traders to get confused ....
You are off mate. You are wasting your time thinking like that. Let me just tell you this once as you wont go anywhere thinking like this.

CB make monetary policy based on macroeconomic fundamentals, don't give a damn at a micro daily chart chop zone for a few days...

Quote
? 2nd question : How come a so trade-able currency can stall at one range for such a long time .. isn't this what we call manipulation?

Why not? and stop using the world 'manipulation' that doesn't make any sense.

Quote
Recession 2.0 kicked in with the cracks in bank with unemployment dropping from the current figures in the Eur zone .... Ridiculous or not .....

???? You are way off. What recession 2.0 ?

Europe this year has printed the strongest numbers (very soft as is comatose Europe for the last 20 years) in a decade . We finally found bottom and only Brexit is firing to derail the recovery. So far Brexit barely have started. Wait for Q3 at least to see some data but more importantly wait until the actual article 50 is trigger ...until then nothing new the UK is still part of the largest and richest trading union in the world so nothing has changed...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
This went from a multitude of different traders with different backgrounds with different ideas and superb trading discussion to a sisse hand-out thread Don't think that was sisse's intention...then again maybe it was
Weird comment ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,729
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:48am Sep 30, 2016 10:48am
Quoting Pharm0r
This went from a multitude of different traders with different backgrounds with different ideas and superb trading discussion to a sisse hand-out thread Don't think that was sisse's intention...then again maybe it was
Not real sure i agree but just hoping to make the top 20 now. (Meaning I've learned so damn much in here I don't want it to stop)
  • #143,730
  • Sep 30, 2016 11:36am Sep 30, 2016 11:36am
As of late and my track record goosebone, you will surpass me! Learning so much here though. Still not sure if the close today is accurate. We were so close to testing .1100 handle and then it reversed in this chop zone.

Waiting paitently.
  • #143,731
  • Sep 30, 2016 11:57am Sep 30, 2016 11:57am
Quoting sisse
Q4: So after we chop around in point A for a while price sell off and we manage to get to TP1 b and one more time we bounce back and overshoot to 1.135x (Point B)
9. Managing Risk ...cont

Quoting hoom
{quote} Scale in 2nd time .
Indeed....

Quoting change
Q4: if mantra is "reduce ad manage risk" in B may do nothing (probably my choice) or i can scale out two position for -50 each so i close at BE even if i'm stopped out later. ...
Well you could but why would you.

Let me tell you why in the next point that comes for from Acting as Trader


" --> The main job as a trader is: First, managing risk !!! not managing potential gains and here is where the fun and complex part start. Second, managing rewards and third managing time."

By point B you have accomplish the most important part on this discussion which is MANAGING RISK and now you can focus on the second part managing rewards.

In point B it's not efficient to take partials or trail from a trading managing perspective because you have transformed a negative risk profile in a positive one:

@ Entry
Risk: $300
Return:0

@ TP1
Risk: $200
Return: $200

@ Scale in 1
Risk: $300 - $200 of locked in profit from TP1 = $100 capital at risk for the same TRADE!!!! which has reduced your risk from 3% to 1% on the trade!!!!

@Point B
Risk: $100 - 200 in profit from TP B = -$100 meaning you have not only reduced your risk from 3% to zero you are now in positive returns whatever happens !!!! ​(and you haven trail or do anything yet)
Return :$200 TP [+ $200 TP b] = $400

@1.13 From B you ADD AGAIN because now you are managing REWARDS not risk

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Accumulation.png Size: 365 KB


Risk:-$100 + $100 from a new position = 0 RISK for the exactly same trade !!!!
You can recalculate the returns in each target manually ....won't do it here.

-> What would happen if stubborn price again hit TP1 c and pullback again to the highs to point C?

...well guess what? ...you keep adding (obviusly from a risk/position management perspective not TA or FA no nothing) as, every time it happens youRISK profile and REWARD is getting better and better and better. ...and we can keep endlessly playing to point D, E or F or Z...

-> and we call this ???? ... a term that you have heard 100 million times (and mainly in the wrong context ) : ACCUMULATION and DISTRIBUTION.

I don't need to defined any more as I think is self-explanatory whats going on ...

TBC with the final point Managing Time ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,732
  • Sep 30, 2016 12:03pm Sep 30, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting Pharm0r
This went from a multitude of different traders with different backgrounds with different ideas and superb trading discussion to a sisse hand-out thread Don't think that was sisse's intention...then again maybe it was
Not sure what you meant or intended to mean but if you are referring to the fact that he is illustrating basic trading lessons that he saw fit after the lot of questions I/we asked him...then I see nothing but a very thankful community of traders eager to receive more knowledge from him .

As for the different ideas and "superb!" trading discussion , I am honestly not sure about that !

Finally , if it wasnt for us , the followers of this thread , being on the same page on how to analyse the market then it would be just another random thread where everyone shouts his ideas without any rationals which leads to "chaos" .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,733
  • Sep 30, 2016 12:16pm Sep 30, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 9. Managing Risk ...cont {quote} Indeed.... {quote} Well you could but why would you. Let me tell you why in the next point that comes for from Acting as Trader " --> The main job as a trader is: First, managing risk !!! not managing potential gains and here is where the fun and complex part start. Second, managing rewards and third managing time." By point B you have accomplish the most important part on this discussion which is MANAGING RISK and now you can focus on the second part managing rewards. In point B it's not efficient to take...
ah well i guess my bad english hit again, sorry.

What i mean is in B (between entry first price and SL) i do nothing because i have already bought at original entry price.

In your example every TP1 i sell and every orginal entry Price (A) i buy again, am i wrong, misunderstand your words?
  • #143,734
  • Sep 30, 2016 12:43pm Sep 30, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting change
{quote} ah well i guess my bad english hit again, sorry. What i mean is in B (between entry first price and SL) i do nothing because i have already bought at original entry price. In your example every TP1 i sell and every orginal entry Price (A) i buy again, am i wrong, misunderstand your words?
The entry levels are irrelevant for this discussion focus on the risk and position management. The levels I am using are just for illustration purposes only. In real live you are not going to get the same entries at the same price and prolly not even all of them ...

Quoting sisse
{quote} 9. Managing Risk ...cont
Now @hoom before we wrap up and answer your initial question. Let me put you the final chart on the short term part of the discussion and ask you:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: End.png Size: 349 KB


Can you plot for yourself the trade/risk management investment profile and the trader profile for the mid term range you are referring?.
Would it justify the time and opportunity cost if I tell you in Mid August or Right now risk/invest $300/$500 for a potential return of 1:5 up to 1:9 by the end of the year ???
Does it matter really if a super micro scalper that don't exist will make 1 trillion dollars in the same range and period of time?...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,735
  • Sep 30, 2016 1:33pm Sep 30, 2016 1:33pm
...and we are rolling with a xxxxx in Euro. We are aligning for a xxxxx NFP. All maps crystal clear across the board, most positions locked and loaded. Expecting movers and shaker next week...

sisse

PS: @Pharm0r (je je je) we are blanking out xxxxxw updates for this M close and wrapping all the updates from the conversations this week...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,736
  • Sep 30, 2016 1:37pm Sep 30, 2016 1:37pm
My comments were not directed at those actively working in the thread to expand their knowledge base and contribute with thought-invoking conversation. Nor where they aimed at sisse, he knows that.

Apologies to any of yall that may have mistaken my comments as a direct insult- I can be brash when I feel we're confronted with leeches or shills.
  • #143,737
  • Sep 30, 2016 2:21pm Sep 30, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting sisse
sisse PS: @Pharm0r (je je je) we are blanking out xxxxxw updates for this M close and wrapping all the updates from the conversations this week...
Yeah that much is obvious (In response to what you messaged me). My general thoughts (open to the thread for discussion) is dollar is looking weak and essentially holding that wedge by just a hair...Im worried the bottom wont hold for a bad nfp, and maybe not even an inline report that can be seen as ambiguous...

As far as December FED....I don't know- the rhetoric from FED is similar to last year, we've been warned to expect a hike...I think this NFP will be the deciding factor for the market expectations (and this range) as far as December goes. Good is good, bad is bad- however; with a good (not inline) NFP, I think it's safer to expect a hike regardless of EU issues....as long as DB can keep their shit together into December. If no other reason than because it is safer to be a dollar bull than a dollar bear going into FED.

If no hike, after initial reaction then I expect EU will just chop another year until either Brexit, War, Hikes, or ????. 1.17xx maybe, but no way 1.217x with all these issues looming.

GU needs the breather, and with no hikes I'd like to short the break of the brexit candle range 1.38xx. If we are still at the bottom of the range where we currently are, and a BAD nfp- then I will long GU into Demeber with hopes that it will get to the top of the range so I can risk playing the actual FED meeting and later shorting for brexit.
  • #143,738
  • Sep 30, 2016 3:48pm Sep 30, 2016 3:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} My general thoughts (open to the thread for discussion) is dollar is looking weak and essentially holding that wedge by just a hair...Im worried the bottom wont hold for a bad nfp, and maybe not even an inline report that can be seen as ambiguous... As far as December FED....I don't know- the rhetoric from FED is similar to last year, we've been warned to expect a hike...I think this NFP will be the deciding factor for the market expectations (and this range) as far as December goes. Good is good, bad is bad- however; with...
Well, if they hide behind inline NFP after what (it looks like) have been decided in Jackson Hole by CBs (no further easing, limiting/ending free money) and Sept FOMC (waiting for confirmation on the employment front, ie. following roughly the same pattern as last year), and everything else being equals (and so far it does), it will look like a complete loss of credibility...
Employment trend is so strong (employment rate is <=5% for nearly one year now !) and fed rates are so low. Hiking one time a year, at this rate level, and with such data is not so ambitious ! It will be more painful to hike in a hurry with the first signs of overheating, or to try to find out a way to ease with zero margin in case of trouble... Well just my opinion...

Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling with a xxxxx in Euro. We are aligning for a xxxxx NFP. All maps crystal clear across the board, most positions locked and loaded. Expecting movers and shaker next week... sisse PS: @Pharm0r (je je je) we are blanking out xxxxxw updates for this M close and wrapping all the updates from the conversations this week...
I'm far behind you but I will try to fill the blanks as a game :

...and we are rolling with a bearish weekly close (monthly neutral ?) in Euro. We are aligning for a inline/good/strong NFP that will trigger RMT


Thanks for sharing all
  • #143,739
  • Sep 30, 2016 4:32pm Sep 30, 2016 4:32pm
I agree with Repilcants post above.The only somewhat greyer area of the story for me is how much (if at all compared) FED takes cues from their take on equity markets and what result a hike would have as compared with living by employment and inflation alone (the party line). But if they mean what they usually say (big if) they have no real excuse to dove it.
  • #143,740
  • Edited 5:34pm Sep 30, 2016 5:19pm | Edited 5:34pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Well, if they hide behind inline NFP after what (it looks like) have been decided in Jackson Hole by CBs (no further easing, limiting/ending free money) and Sept FOMC (waiting for confirmation on the employment front, ie. following roughly the same pattern as last year), and everything else being equals (and so far it does), it will look like a complete loss of credibility... Employment trend is so strong (employment rate is <=5% for nearly one year now !) and fed rates are so low. Hiking one time a year, at this rate level, and with such...
I agree that there would be a credibility issue, thus why I think the safest side to trade without a bad nfp is the "yes" side for hikes.

Dont forget I'm talking about two different time frames as well- what the market will expect after NFP, and what will actually happen in Dec. Of course if what the market expects and what happens are different- there's the oh shit factor

However- out of curiosity why would you say bearish weekly close?
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