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  • #143,701
  • Sep 30, 2016 3:11am Sep 30, 2016 3:11am
EURUSD Comment:
TA wise looks nice and bearish . Depends on today's close, if this breakdown holds this time it looks very nice for bears.
Another clue forgotten H&S. Charts from 9 days ago and today...
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PVSRA
  • #143,702
  • Sep 30, 2016 3:57am Sep 30, 2016 3:57am
Bund shorts stopped again with some loss
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #143,703
  • Sep 30, 2016 4:21am Sep 30, 2016 4:21am
Quoting sisse
. However a Lehman run on panic will kill have collateral damage as it will pretty much kill FED hikes this year. sisse
With gold & dollar rising..is the break off in inverse correlation giving an early sign of no rate hike this year as stated or is it just risk off regarding the DB situation?(euro in control for now)..or too early to say

Was going to close long in the current iteration..because of change in short term outlook & lower highs on daily chart..but your last post..maybe best to stay put..or will the dollar be used as safe haven & strengthen dollar anyway?..probably getting too close to the charts..
  • #143,704
  • Sep 30, 2016 5:29am Sep 30, 2016 5:29am
This article from WSJ explains in a easy way the DB crises.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ghos...ank-1475193863
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,705
  • Edited 6:24am Sep 30, 2016 6:09am | Edited 6:24am
DB in free fall today and we gap down ticking as low as $9.xx ...the bounce during the session have the textbook elements of a capitulation move rather that bargain buying... Awfully bearish and for those familiar with trading stocks this look like a "kaput" leg. For those who remember Bear Stearns and Lehman moves this one look very similar ...

Markets and especially Euro will have a very hard time to attract fresh buyers if we loose the floor with NY....until then there is very thin air holding the 1.11 handle ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,706
  • Sep 30, 2016 6:33am Sep 30, 2016 6:33am
Quoting sisse
DB in free fall today and we gap down ticking as low as $9.xx ...the bounce during the session have the textbook elements of a capitulation move rather that bargain buying... Awfully bearish and for those familiar with trading stocks this look like a "kaput" leg. For those who remember Bear Stearns and Lehman moves this one look very similar ... Markets and especially Euro will have a very hard time to attract fresh buyers if we loose the floor with NY....until then there is very thin air holding the 1.11 handle ... sisse
Sisse, as my knowledge of banking system is not that good. Is there any way to predict the impact lets say if DB goes down the drain? As BIS calls it the most systematically dangerous bank - I mean It can endanger the whole eurozone itself via Italian banks and we may be very very soon (days) away from a major risk-off event. For us traders we know how to act in risk-off situations. But more broadly - is it exaggerating when you account the situation as a possible major risk for (existence of??) eurozone?
  • #143,707
  • Edited 7:32am Sep 30, 2016 6:47am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, as my knowledge of banking system is not that good. Is there any way to predict the impact lets say if DB goes down the drain? As BIS calls it the most systematically dangerous bank - I mean It can endanger the whole eurozone itself via Italian banks and we may be very very soon (days) away from a major risk-off event. For us traders we know how to act in risk-off situations. But more broadly - is it exaggerating when you account the situation as a possible major risk for (existence of??) eurozone?
Well DB is in the category of 'too big to fail' and its on the selected group of global financial institutions ...meaning the impact of a catahvhope there is major worldwide ...this is not the average cooperative mom-and-pop regional bank in Sicily....

Obviously a massive blow out of control (not expected as we not in the happy 2007 where nobody was paying attention) will cause major collateral damage everywhere. First on the fragile banking sector in the the EZ but it will expand in minutes across the continent and in no time across the world ....

You just need to track was going on, not really exaggerate of the potential implication of a blow out. First because it wont go completely tits up. The German government and the ECB indirectly will bail them out and that's a fact. Second you need to track the confidence contagion and third and more importantly you have to track LIQUIDITY issues/gossips or related as that is the trigger for contagion, fast and wild ....

Until then, my 2 cents don't jump the gun. This is a macro bank on the brink, be aware and trade accordingly but don't bet on dooms day without further data ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,708
  • Sep 30, 2016 6:54am Sep 30, 2016 6:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well DB is in the category of 'too big too fail' and its on the selected group of global financial institutions ...meaning the impact of a catahvhope there is major worldwide ...this is not the average cooperative mom-and-pop regional bank in Sicily.... Obviously a massive blow out of control (not expected as we not in the happy 2007 where nobody was paying attention) will cause major collateral damage everywhere. First on the fragile banking sector in the the EZ but it will expand in minutes across the continent and in no time across the...
perfect, will never stop admiring your sense for proportional and rational evaluation nothing to add on DB from my side (as expected )

we´ll see what NY brings
  • #143,709
  • Sep 30, 2016 7:01am Sep 30, 2016 7:01am
Here is a illustration I found from 2015 showing DB exposure on derivative market. And now the banks are having a bank run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Zrzut_ekranu_2015-06-25_o_14.23_.33_.png Size: 58 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,710
  • Sep 30, 2016 7:09am Sep 30, 2016 7:09am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well DB is in the category of 'too big too fail' and its on the selected group of global financial institutions ...meaning the impact of a catahvhope there is major worldwide ...this is not the average cooperative mom-and-pop regional bank in Sicily.... Obviously a massive blow out of control (not expected as we not in the happy 2007 where nobody was paying attention) will cause major collateral damage everywhere. First on the fragile banking sector in the the EZ but it will expand in minutes across the continent and in no time across the...
Quoting chester123
{quote} perfect, will never stop admiring your sense for proportional and rational evaluation nothing to add on DB from my side (as expected ) well see what NY brings
Both of you ....... no comments ....
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  • #143,711
  • Sep 30, 2016 8:26am Sep 30, 2016 8:26am
...here we go for NY. Eyes on Euro 1.117x as only level in play for the M roll. Watch-out for v shady markets after the European closing especially with Germany on long weekend bank holiday. Expecting clearing and reshuffling of portfolios before NFP...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,712
  • Sep 30, 2016 8:52am Sep 30, 2016 8:52am
Quoting sisse
...here we go for NY. Eyes on Euro 1.117x as only level in play for the M roll. Watch-out for v shady markets after the European closing especially with Germany on long weekend bank holiday. Expecting clearing and reshuffling of portfolios before NFP... sisse
Rumours that the fine for DB will be the third part of initial...
  • #143,713
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:02am Sep 30, 2016 9:02am
V. Slightly better reports from the US and we are set for a key European close. On the DB front, SNB on the markets this morning ...and we know what it means when the hyperactive and very inefficient SNB is intervening in the markets .... risk was real ...still all eyes on Germany and DB until the close

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,714
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:22am Sep 30, 2016 9:22am
Quoting sisse
V. Slightly better reports from the US and we are set for a key European close. On the DB front, SNB on the markets this morning ...and we know what it means when the hyperactive and very inefficient SNB is intervening in the markets .... risk was real ...still all eyes on Germany and DB until the close sisse
I really didn't get that ... Can you please explain ....
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  • #143,715
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:29am Sep 30, 2016 9:29am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I really didn't get that ... Can you please explain ....
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=609111
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  • #143,716
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:38am Sep 30, 2016 9:38am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I really didn't get that ... Can you please explain ....
There has been chatter [confirmed !] that SNB is intervening today , Sisse said risk was real which meant IMO that DB risk made a CB intervene so is not just rumours .

Another thing monday is German bank holiday , no one would be holding DB shares...risk off as soon as london goes homes ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,717
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:41am Sep 30, 2016 10:41am
Big banks saving the day ...or not !! , talking about settling an agreement with DB concerning the US fine . Just in time for DB shares to rally , smells fishy ...so who has

been long on those shares after they plunged on hedge funds withdrawing excess cash rumours ! Talk about rigging markets ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,718
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:42am Sep 30, 2016 10:42am
if this is real http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=609184 , then also there are many factors which are not settled which can easily do short-circuit in the fx board ....

this is now really making me crazy ...

waiting for someone to give real in-depth light ....

if this is real then today once again the CB proved that it is a manipulated game ....
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  • #143,719
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:46am Sep 30, 2016 10:46am
Quoting hoom
Big banks saving the day ...or not !! , talking about settling an agreement with DB concerning the US fine . Just in time for DB shares to rally , smells fishy ...so who has been long on those shares after they plunged on hedge funds withdrawing excess cash rumours ! Talk about rigging markets ...
Indeed, a sharp reaction on DB after a bargain settlement is pretty much agreed. Right on time for the European close... all roses (not really) in the banking sector again ....this story will come later for now all is fine for the close and we can settle the M closes on a high in European Equities.

sisse

@ primejarvis You are way too close to the market. You are getting lost in translation because you are tracking a micro chop zone, thats why you are going nuts, getting confuse and frustrate....step away a mile or two from the charts you are tracking in the Euro...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,720
  • Sep 30, 2016 11:06am Sep 30, 2016 11:06am
Quoting sisse
{quote} sisse @ primejarvis You are way too close to the market. You are getting lost in translation because you are tracking a micro chop zone, thats why you are going nuts, getting confuse and frustrate....step away a mile or two from the charts you are tracking in the Euro...
TA wise nothing has changed in a long run .... i am not tracking it in a micro chop zone as i dont go below D1 ....

according to the chart what i see is that the CB's wants the traders to get confused .... and in confusion one way or the other some or not little mistakes are done which they are using in full pace ....

so a BIG question is whats next to expect from the market .... ?

2nd question : How come a so trade-able currency can stall at one range for such a long time ... isn't this what we call manipulation?

PA wise also it doesn't have any room to the north .... but still its readjusting and keeping the price at one point....

Recession 2.0 kicked in with the cracks in bank with unemployment dropping from the current figures in the Eur zone ....

Ridiculous or not .....
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