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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #62,661
  • Nov 11, 2016 1:18am Nov 11, 2016 1:18am
Quoting aarontan
{quote} Yea tried that kind of stuff last time, tilted me a lot of time, so I just stick to simple r:r unless I trade longer term.
tried what?
  • #62,662
  • Nov 11, 2016 1:19am Nov 11, 2016 1:19am
Quoting Don96
{quote} tried what?
Moving my trade to breakeven
The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.
  • #62,663
  • Nov 11, 2016 1:22am Nov 11, 2016 1:22am
Quoting aarontan
{quote} Moving my trade to breakeven
i did go 30 up so... i was only targetting 50

Quoting Don96
{quote} may look to go long around 104.3/25 for a break above 107... it looks like potential bullish flag same play could be sell on break below 20 old trend line that was well respected and then broker perfectly also in play at around 106.25-30
nice bounce...
might not help my EU long with larger size..

out breakeven.
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  • #62,664
  • Nov 11, 2016 2:39am Nov 11, 2016 2:39am
Quoting Don96
{quote} i did go 30 up so... i was only targetting 50 {quote} nice bounce... might not help my EU long with larger size.. out breakeven. {image}
watching 105.94/82
  • #62,665
  • Nov 11, 2016 2:53am Nov 11, 2016 2:53am
Probably see some profit taking at the end of this week but trend should still be down for YEN. Let's see if we see 110 again
  • #62,666
  • Edited 9:09pm Nov 11, 2016 8:45pm | Edited 9:09pm
I suspect the market has some sort of erronously entered order active, that usually explains the moves like this. eg. one broker has pretty realistic demo and if there's a data glitch the order book still accepts orders and defaults them to 0.

In current system cancelled orders appear to linger, even if the order is cancelled within seconds, it has already effect on the future. In charts I found that some of these far placed, possibly erronous orders can take years to execute but if all the market makers withdraw then you get a wide spread (or "flash crash" if hft trade it).

Suggestions: If orders is entered beyond vwap+-10% then keep the order at client platform (don't make it auditable/send to broker etc) and show some counter that you have x seconds/minutes to cancel without market impact where x% is based on the distance from vwap, so if USDJPY order was sent at 0 you'd have possibly hours before the order went to the broker.

Even though the "0 order" may now be executing, don't count on the USD crashing because of price not time priority.
  • #62,667
  • Nov 12, 2016 5:37am Nov 12, 2016 5:37am
Short long term and you can not go wrong. Look a few years out. Patience pays

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency/forecast
  • #62,668
  • Nov 13, 2016 10:40am Nov 13, 2016 10:40am
Any wave analysts to check my count? according to my chart the pair should go up a little with some corrections, reaching the previous high probably at 107+ & maybe even higher before heading back down a few hundred pips. I'm a complete beginner with these waves so if I'm way off track please correct me...or if you choose to just laugh your ass off!

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who dares wins
  • #62,669
  • Nov 13, 2016 11:00am Nov 13, 2016 11:00am
Quoting MasterJedi
Any wave analysts to check my count? according to my chart the pair should go up a little with some corrections, reaching the previous high probably at 107+ & maybe even higher before heading back down a few hundred pips. I'm a complete beginner with these waves so if I'm way off track please correct me...or if you choose to just laugh your ass off! {image}
No good. Wave (3) is shortest - which can't be.

More like wave III is wave 1 or A. Then retrace wave IV is wave 2 or B. And now presently wave 3 or C.
  • #62,670
  • Edited 1:20pm Nov 13, 2016 12:51pm | Edited 1:20pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rink-yen-jumps

Indicator of yen weakness.

BOJ will have to take some more measures to strengthen their economy in the near future otherwise it might go to shit.
  • #62,671
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:50pm Nov 13, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} No good. Wave (3) is shortest - which can't be. More like wave III is wave 1 or A. Then retrace wave IV is wave 2 or B. And now presently wave 3 or C.
Thanks very much for the feedback. Have another look if you can, I removed some unnecessary labels to make it clearer, wave 3 isn't the shortest I don't think. I see how we can be presently in wave 3 or c though...if it keeps going higher then wave 3 it is.

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who dares wins
  • #62,672
  • Nov 13, 2016 4:25pm Nov 13, 2016 4:25pm
My opinion is at we have a reverse here 107.200-107.700. The friday candelstick is a hammer,so is possible with the today candlestick to be a EVENING STAR formation or the today candle to be a Dojis. I bet at the day will be close near 106.500
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  • #62,673
  • Nov 13, 2016 4:27pm Nov 13, 2016 4:27pm
Quoting MasterJedi
{quote} Thanks very much for the feedback. Have another look if you can, I removed some unnecessary labels to make it clearer, wave 3 isn't the shortest I don't think. I see how we can be presently in wave 3 or c though...if it keeps going higher then wave 3 it is. {image}
Well not really either. This time you have the extreme low of Wave 4 overlapping into the extreme high of Wave 1. Traditional EW says that can't be.

Although I prefer to look at extreme closes for either wave and not lows and highs. But even in that case closes overlap.
  • #62,674
  • Nov 13, 2016 6:15pm Nov 13, 2016 6:15pm
Go back to the year where the YEN made its run from 106-122. Run started between October-November and ran from there
  • #62,675
  • Nov 13, 2016 6:30pm Nov 13, 2016 6:30pm
Quoting kmic14
My opinion is at we have a reverse here 107.200-107.700. The friday candelstick is a hammer,so is possible with the today candlestick to be a EVENING STAR formation or the today candle to be a Dojis. I bet at the day will be close near 106.500 {image}
Most consider the close of each forex day to be 5pm NY time - which is 19 1/2 hours from now. BTW Sunday trading is included in Monday's bar. Some software incorrectly separates it. And you are trying to judge how the Monday bar will close now?????

Note currently (which doesn't really mean much because it can all change in a heartbeat overnight) the bar is a very bullish breakout.
  • #62,676
  • Nov 13, 2016 6:55pm Nov 13, 2016 6:55pm
The pair advance beyond 107.40 level, I'm expecting more gain this week, next target will be at 108.00.
  • #62,677
  • Nov 14, 2016 12:30am Nov 14, 2016 12:30am
110-112 is this clear. Never fight BOJ
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ja...-idUSKBN1390HF
  • #62,678
  • Nov 14, 2016 12:44am Nov 14, 2016 12:44am
some pull back
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  • #62,679
  • Nov 14, 2016 1:14am Nov 14, 2016 1:14am
I guess the BOJ speech has officially killed the yen.
  • #62,680
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:13am Nov 14, 2016 2:13am
Quoting stylinex
110-112 is this clear. Never fight BOJ http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ja...-idUSKBN1390HF

only verbal intervention nothing more - knowledge of how increases QE shoots himself with a knee = QE Japan does not work, an aging population = negative interest rates = murder of pension funds
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