The Really Useless Thread | Page 7259 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,161
  • Nov 12, 2016 3:01am Nov 12, 2016 3:01am
...and we rolled. A bearish weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for neutral chop until further data.

Euro sitting at bottom of weekly range with RMT as the catalyst for continuation but fed will be nervous to see direction of trump. Risk off, keeping euro* in bid until direction is clear. Trumpenomics will result in inflation but downturn in us economy - same as uk, but itlf his cabinet is tempered then jitters will fade, allowing fed to stay on course.
  • #145,162
  • Nov 12, 2016 6:07am Nov 12, 2016 6:07am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote}
Very nice and thank you!
  • #145,163
  • Edited 7:11am Nov 12, 2016 6:48am | Edited 7:11am
Difficult this one, I agree with all that say it is bearish overall. But IMO the close by itself is bullish ( We only has reel close in forex on Fridays). Mean that a pullback is expected. Not a direct breakout of support and continuation without any pullback, also we are at kind extremes on daily ( not weekly or monthly ) . That is my reason for answer alternative A.

Will be very interesting to hear Sisse's conclusion . And to see what really happens on Monday .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 43 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,164
  • Nov 12, 2016 7:00am Nov 12, 2016 7:00am
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. A xxxx weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for xxxxx... This time Pharm0r (or anybody who want to fill the blanks fill free to jump in) will take the lead in filling the blanks before the next week open: a) Bullish .....retrace at minimum until further data b) Neutral ...chop zone until further data c) Bearish ...direct continuation until further data sisse
I extended the analysis to commodities:
Oil: C (bearish)
Gold and Silver: A (retrace to the flip area).
Any views or comments from anyone?
  • #145,165
  • Nov 12, 2016 7:48am Nov 12, 2016 7:48am
Almost seems like on the eu question there is much agreement between those who took a and those who took c. Small bounce before continuation.
  • #145,166
  • Nov 12, 2016 5:41pm Nov 12, 2016 5:41pm
[quote=sisse;9248198]...and we rolled. A xxxx weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for xxxxx...

(A)-- bullish and pull back to 1,100X
Wise decisions are based on lies we living..
  • #145,167
  • Nov 12, 2016 8:05pm Nov 12, 2016 8:05pm
Quoting goosebone
Almost seems like on the eu question there is much agreement between those who took a and those who took c. Small bounce before continuation.
Haha, that's what I was thinking. Seems like 90% of us agree, but interpreted sisse's options differently
  • #145,168
  • Nov 13, 2016 4:54am Nov 13, 2016 4:54am
Reading this thread for quite while I discovered really priceless educational materials. One of the best I ever read on trading (and I read a lot).

I put in Google docs few posts on most fundamental (IMVHO) topics:

Dissecting the market
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing

Risk management
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing

Time and perspective
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing

And the latest game changer outlook
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing

Sisse, if this is not OK to post such links for copyright or other reason, I will make them inaccessible.
  • #145,169
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:32am Nov 13, 2016 7:32am
[quote=yg10;9249061]


Nice, thank you.
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #145,170
  • Nov 13, 2016 10:31am Nov 13, 2016 10:31am
@ Fadhl ..thanks
@ yg10 ..nice, well done!

Quoting goosebone
Almost seems like on the eu question there is much agreement between those who took a and those who took c. Small bounce before continuation.

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Haha, that's what I was thinking. Seems like 90% of us agree, but interpreted sisse's options differently
Yeah, it's looking that way all right ...the dreaded consensus! ..at least we all die together ha ha!
It could well take the form of a slightly higher Sunday opening and rising gradually thereafter on typical lazy Monday trading into a spike up on Tuesday with not great but inline US Retail numbers and then the resumption of downward direction.

EDIT: PS Draghi speaking Monday 15.00 GMT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-13_16-01.jpg Size: 129 KB
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,171
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:14pm Nov 13, 2016 1:14pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. A xxxx weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for xxxxx... This time Pharm0r (or anybody who want to fill the blanks fill free to jump in) will take the lead in filling the blanks before the next week open: a) Bullish .....retrace at minimum until further data b) Neutral ...chop zone until further data c) Bearish ...direct continuation until further data sisse {quote} .... sisse
if this counts:

Bullish , Retrace to above 1.1372
reasons:
1- it is less probable to copy exact move as Nov 2015 before first rate hike
2- If assumed the the trend has 3 stage of preparation or peak 1, then peak 2 and extreme peak 3, in 2016 the EU did not do peak 3 or at least retrace of peak 3.
...
  • #145,172
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:37pm Nov 13, 2016 1:37pm
Hello again, a long time since the last post, I've been focusing on training... hope it was for good

From my point of view we saw friday a clean test of a monthly resistance so the answer would be bullish and my Monday level to observe is 1.089, after that we can chop to last week low or continue higher. My medium-term outlook for EURUSD is bullish and my target is 1.18 reached before Sep 17.

Supporting my idea, is that euro tapering next year and Trump printing money for roads. What could go wrong?
Live and Keep Calm
  • #145,173
  • Nov 13, 2016 4:20pm Nov 13, 2016 4:20pm
Quoting troneras
Hello again, a long time since the last post, I've been focusing on training... hope it was for good From my point of view we saw friday a clean test of a monthly resistance so the answer would be bullish and my Monday level to observe is 1.089, after that we can chop to last week low or continue higher. My medium-term outlook for EURUSD is bullish and my target is 1.18 reached before Sep 17. Supporting my idea, is that euro tapering next year and Trump printing money for roads. What could go wrong?
Nice to have these last posts with the alternative bullish scenarios!

Of course you may well be right, or at least more right than me, but maybe it's a bit too soon to say we've had a clean test of any monthly "resistance" (I assume you meant support) as there's another two and a half weeks left till the monthly candle closes, and on the weekly it still looks bearish to me with that last bearish engulfing.

Also, while you're correct that ECB tapering does appear to be entering the arena for next year (and it's hard to know exactly when beforehand the smart money starts positioning for this), there's still a ways to go before then and I think markets won't be rising in a straight line up from here but from a deeper position lower down (1.0580 would do very nicely here please! )
Anyways Trump won't be the one printing any money but the FED and their policy appears to be tightening going forward starting now in Dec which is E/U bearish. Also speaking of the good Donald, his expansionary policies financed by higher deficits & borrowing and along with any Trade Tariff walls would all contribute to higher inflation and hence all the more reason for more steeper Fed tightening and dollar strengthening short to mid term (see recent bond yield rises for a preview of what's expected).
(NB ...I don't claim any type of expertise here & am just reworking bits I read here and there which I can understand! )
...
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,174
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:38pm Nov 13, 2016 7:38pm
^ sounds right on the money to me
  • #145,175
  • Nov 13, 2016 8:24pm Nov 13, 2016 8:24pm
Trump interview on 60 minutes....not all that bad. He's already softened his rhetoric on the attacks- and I think he understands the responsibility he possesses. At least more so than he let on during his campaign.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minut...-lesley-stahl/

As an American trader- I'm really excited to see this new tax plan...
  • #145,176
  • Nov 13, 2016 9:15pm Nov 13, 2016 9:15pm
Quoting Pharm0r
As an American trader- I'm really excited to see this new tax plan...
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/tax-plan/

standard deduction increase to $30k, cap gains tax reduction to 20% (the Repub plan has shown this reduced to 16.5% across the board) and so on....huge corp tax reduction.....promised spending increases for mil & infrastructure....let the good times roll....the National debt will keep ballooning, but who cares? the End Times are near anyway....the rich (me) will get richer and the poor (fuck em) will get poorer, but that's the fundamental crux of Capitalism.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,177
  • Nov 13, 2016 9:48pm Nov 13, 2016 9:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/tax-plan/ standard deduction increase to $30k, cap gains tax reduction to 20% (the Repub plan has shown this reduced to 16.5% across the board) and so on....huge corp tax reduction.....promised spending increases for mil & infrastructure....let the good times roll....the National debt will keep ballooning, but who cares? the End Times are near anyway....the rich (me) will get richer and the poor (fuck em) will get poorer, but that's the fundamental crux of Capitalism.
ride the pig...good atmosphere to make fortunes
  • #145,178
  • Nov 13, 2016 10:04pm Nov 13, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/tax-plan/ standard deduction increase to $30k, cap gains tax reduction to 20% (the Repub plan has shown this reduced to 16.5% across the board) and so on....huge corp tax reduction.....promised spending increases for mil & infrastructure....let the good times roll....the National debt will keep ballooning, but who cares? the End Times are near anyway....the rich (me) will get richer and the poor (fuck em) will get poorer, but that's the fundamental crux of Capitalism.
And those who make ~$112K - $200K will pay 5% more taxes.
  • #145,179
  • Nov 13, 2016 10:34pm Nov 13, 2016 10:34pm
http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...992076e4d72e79

sector rotation to continue until some shtf....not sure I agree on gold but I will watch it to fade bottom
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,180
  • Nov 14, 2016 1:12am Nov 14, 2016 1:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} ....And I will take that in the Euro in a simple ride, taking first target on the test @1.096x ...
Clearing 1.078x target in the Euro right on time for the European opening. Simple part of the ride completed. A regular week expected with US election fading on the background with major analyst and investors digesting and planing portfolios for next year .

EURO -> 1.122x[check] (Strong R) ----> 1.111x [check] (Resistance) ----> 1.096x. (FLIP)[CHECK]----> 1.078.x [check] (Support)----> 1.064x (Strong S)

sisse

PS: @hoom
Quoting hoom
{quote} a)
Why?...I am honesty surprise.... we'll wrap up the pending conversation later but don't really understand why did you flop in this one.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
104 traders viewing now