The Really Useless Thread | Page 7251 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,001
  • Nov 9, 2016 4:00am Nov 9, 2016 4:00am

  1. Third very important update from US election:

--> Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from Neutral to Buy

lots more action almost in all asset classes cooking ...we need NY.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,002
  • Nov 9, 2016 4:26am Nov 9, 2016 4:26am
Quoting sisse
Election sending shockwaves across Europe. Lots of action taking place under the table, also projections and expectations radically changing for next year and beyond. Still NY and the US to come but is confirmed. GAME CHANGER in play!!!. For those not familiar with a major game changer, it very seldom happens this year we have two in both sides of the Atlantic and will bring major changes across all markets correlations and asset classes. Lots of action and outlooks updates coming and as usual in those major market events...
thats you are talking about year end or end of Q4 right or before inauguration?

E/u : midterm is still sell outlook right ? in my view nothing has changed same level, same trades, same all ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,003
  • Nov 9, 2016 5:45am Nov 9, 2016 5:45am
Tweet I saw this morning:

"Trump might be gone in 4 years, BREXIT is forever. You Brits are still the bigger idiots"

  • #145,004
  • Nov 9, 2016 5:56am Nov 9, 2016 5:56am
Quoting goosebone
Took eu shorts at 1245 last night stops at 1335. Tp1 1145 (stop loss order on 30% of the position sitting there) tp 2 at 0974 tp 3 tbd. Not real confident the map I've got applies to the new world but it's the map I got so... Other than that still flat.
I just clossed all. Would let it all the way only if Clinton would win.
Flat EU now and might even consider a long ( UCHF short instead).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4 Update 9.11..png Size: 69 KB

I couldn't stay up all night, so didn't know who won when opening a trade. SL was missed by few pips, so a bit lucky here ( just above 1.13)
PVSRA
  • #145,005
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:01am Nov 9, 2016 6:01am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Personally 1.1200 is out of question as far as FA and TA is concerned til the year end . Market won't let laggers jump in whatever it takes .
told you so hoom.

I'm jk of course, no one saw that coming. Just wanted to poke at you a bit
  • #145,006
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:08am Nov 9, 2016 6:08am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} told you so hoom. I'm jk of course, no one saw that coming. Just wanted to poke at you a bit


Farewell... leaving planet earth
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,007
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:12am Nov 9, 2016 6:12am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Farewell... leaving planet earth
Inserted Video
  • #145,008
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:17am Nov 9, 2016 6:17am
Quoting sisse
Election sending shockwaves across Europe. Lots of action taking place under the table, also projections and expectations radically changing for next year and beyond. Still NY and the US to come but is confirmed. GAME CHANGER in play!!!. For those not familiar with a major game changer, it very seldom happens this year we have two in both sides of the Atlantic and will bring major changes across all markets correlations and asset classes. Lots of action and outlooks updates coming and as usual in those major market events they will start form the...
Great to be getting your feedback as ever! As with Sterling where the prospect of rising inflation due to sterling weakness would put a floor under it due to the prospect of BOE raising rates to combat inflation, I've been reading we could have a similar scenario of inflation rising in the mid term if Trump pursues an aggressive expansionary spending policy. I personally am not well informed on his policies (is even he!?), but am including below some excerpts from various contributors from the Guardian website. My Q would be ...if there's any substance to these theories then this should have a positive bullish effect on dollar.

"Joe Wiesenthal
There was an initial surge of money into 10-year Treasuries as Trumps victory became clear around midnight Eastern time, as investors looked for a safe haven. That pushed down the yield on the bonds towards 1.7%.
But that move swiftly reversed after Trumps victory speech, as the markets anticipated a jump in borrowing and higher inflation. They dumped Treasuries, pushing yields higher."

"Government bond prices have dropped today, pushing up the yield (interest rate) on longer-term debts issued by the US and UK governments.
Its not a major selloff, but it indicates that the markets are anticipating a surge of borrowing under Trump (to fund that infrastructure plan) and higher inflation too.
Jonathan Platt, head of fixed income at Royal London Asset Management, sa
The main implications of this election are likely to be higher inflation as a result of fiscal policies such as tax cuts and infrastructure spending. In the medium term this will raise US and global interest rates, but there may be a short term hit to consumer and business confidence.
However, a comparison with Brexit would suggest that this could be overstated."

"Richard Buxton, head of UK equities at Old Mutual Global Investors, also spies higher inflation and government borrowing. Medium term, Trump will be reflationary, with tax reform likely to encourage corporates to repatriate cash held overseas, infrastructure spending and no great concern about higher deficits short term.
Against a background of pretty full employment and wage growth of 2.8%, announced last week, this should spell higher interest rates and bond yields over time."

EDIT: ...was regarding your post

  1. Very important first update after US election

--> Changing long term outlook in Dollar from Buy to Neutral ...sisse

The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,009
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:17am Nov 9, 2016 6:17am
Eyes on the open. All markets behaving exactly as expected so far. Eyeballing final positions with NY here ...

More outlook updates coming today and in the next few sessions...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,010
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:23am Nov 9, 2016 6:23am
Quoting sisse
Eyes on the open. All markets behaving exactly as expected so far. Eyeballing final positions with NY here ... More outlook updates coming today and in the next few sessions... sisse
Euro looks like it cleared both sides in order to set for the real move .

in any case , Fed hike pricing in is still over 70% , economic world is shifting and USD is quite vulnerable so I think one is to draw newer maps for such a game changer .

What are your thoughts about the facts that USD and equities are surging after the fact !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,011
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:24am Nov 9, 2016 6:24am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} .....various contributors from the Guardian website. My Q would be ...if there's any substance to these theories then this should have a positive bullish effect on dollar."
Be careful you don't confuse the lagger explanation in the main media of the last knee jerk reaction with the actual flows in play and even worst with the real implication for later.

What you are reading and quoting there is long gone and is only describing the clearing of risk hedges that where taken before elections which is irrelevant for trading right now.

As mentioned many times, as soon as we got a clear winner, markets just clear risk hedges and went back to the same flows. Only drama would have trigger anything else.

However, the real deal and game changers are what is coming for next year and beyond. For now, track the open, obviously with a bit of jittery markets because of short term volatility but all short term risk hedges are off now so track, trade and clear same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,012
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:31am Nov 9, 2016 6:31am
Quoting sisse
EURO -> 1.122x[check] (Strong R) ----> 1.111x [check] (Resistance) ----> 1.096x. (FLIP)[failed by handful ticks] ----> 1.078.x (Support) ----> 1.064x (Strong S)

I got what I needed. All markets behaving as expected for the...
Quoting sisse
Tracking closely the rest of the European session and for those in Euro 1.111x as anticipated last night is the one in play.
....And I will take that in the Euro in a simple ride, taking first target on the test @1.096x right on time for NY. Well done all those (i know a few here) from the 1.12xx and/or 1.11xx handle .... need NY for anything else ...

EURO -> 1.122x[check] (Strong R) ----> 1.111x [check] (Resistance) ----> 1.096x. (FLIP)[CHECK]----> 1.078.x (Support) ----> 1.064x (Strong S)


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,013
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:41am Nov 9, 2016 6:41am
Quoting goosebone
Took eu shorts at 1245 last night stops at 1335. Tp1 1145 (stop loss order on 30% of the position sitting there) tp 2 at 0974 tp 3 tbd. Not real confident the map I've got applies to the new world but it's the map I got so... Other than that still flat.
Closed this at 0974. Not sure what we are facing from here out.
  • #145,014
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:50am Nov 9, 2016 6:50am
Hillary will speak @ 1030 EST
  • #145,015
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:53am Nov 9, 2016 6:53am
Quoting Pharm0r
Hillary will speak @ 1030 EST
same time as OIL inventories ...yikes
  • #145,016
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:55am Nov 9, 2016 6:55am
Quoting goosebone
Closed this at 0974. Not sure what we are facing from here out.
kinda feels like a new deck getting shuffled.....maybe some extra Jokers in there...seeing bonds sell off and equities m/l unchanged, my first take is the markets will read the DJT ascendancy as much more laissez faire, so risk on, and questions about how the FOMC will react in a month are open.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,017
  • Nov 9, 2016 7:39am Nov 9, 2016 7:39am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}kinda feels like a new deck getting shuffled.....maybe some extra Jokers in there...seeing bonds sell off and equities m/l unchanged, my first take is the markets will read the DJT ascendancy as much more laissez faire, so risk on, and questions about how the FOMC will react in a month are open.
Wasn't he going to have Yellen arrested or something? I can't remember. Whateva. I'm clueless and watching it all like a dog being shown a card trick.
  • #145,018
  • Nov 9, 2016 7:43am Nov 9, 2016 7:43am
Yes he essentially said she'd be fired.

Not sure if it's the President's choice to make....

There's talk on twitter that she'll raise rates to protect dollar from Trump. Makes sense if we're looking at another recession a-la Trump due to trade agreements going up in smoke. Will give the FED more wiggle room
  • #145,019
  • Nov 9, 2016 7:46am Nov 9, 2016 7:46am
well, goose, at least you'll be able to blaze guilt-free in FL now. I like totally spaced out the reefer penny stock trades, though dude....maybe still time to get in those?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-09_0743agtk.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,020
  • Nov 9, 2016 7:47am Nov 9, 2016 7:47am
what a pig this euro is, really...maybe try some shorts near 1.1090...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
42 traders viewing now