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  • #6,981
  • Nov 11, 2016 6:17pm Nov 11, 2016 6:17pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Spot on baby but only silver I claim the gold medle as I am so modest ????
Hey B,

Nice work, have a good weekend.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #6,982
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:03pm Nov 11, 2016 8:03pm
Quoting fxderek
{quote} Hi, Squawk,Thank you for your charts, and thank you for still remember this one. Ever since I heard your opinion, I have made some really good long scalps on this pair too. Thinking this is the time to looking for a good short
Good Luck Derek.
  • #6,983
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:09pm Nov 11, 2016 8:09pm
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Alt shark/382...ummmmm......errrrrr...... Anyway I think higher but I'm out for now. {image}
Nice Trade Ben was on this trade as well. Great trade but not as far as you. I was catching planes so pulled out as couldn't watch Fridays session. Got a nice 600 run through to 1.764 and you just can't complain about that even though missed the Friday leg.
  • #6,984
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:12pm Nov 11, 2016 8:12pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} She was a tough one to catch. Plus, was a busy time. Have a good weekend Squawk if I don't make it by, US Holiday tomorrow. {image}
Yeah I was mainly on the Kiwi so don't mind but was one I was keen on. Left the Peso alone for know not quite sure how that will play out.

You to Scott.
  • #6,985
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:49pm Nov 11, 2016 8:49pm
NU H&S Setting up.

Fed Rate increase bet now in the 80s up from 60s last week for Dec and big run on US Bond yields you would be thinking continued, exit left for Antipodeans and emerging currencies.
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  • #6,986
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:28pm Nov 11, 2016 9:28pm
Many patterns on this setup if it gets there. H&S extension would see the bottom for Cypher and Gartley reversal trade.

Copper big extension to upside. No disrespect for Trumpites but theres a Lot of optimism for growth on one mans verbiage.

You would think that there will be some continued momentum for the US Dollar with Trump that will see Gold drop. If Trump drops the corp tax and all that money flows back to US that can only lead to Fed increasing rates more than expected.
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  • #6,987
  • Nov 12, 2016 4:46pm Nov 12, 2016 4:46pm
Quoting squawk
Many patterns on this setup if it gets there. H&S extension would see the bottom for Cypher and Gartley reversal trade. Copper big extension to upside. No disrespect for Trumpites but theres a Lot of optimism for growth on one mans verbiage. You would think that there will be some continued momentum for the US Dollar with Trump that will see Gold drop. If Trump drops the corp tax and all that money flows back to US that can only lead to Fed increasing rates more than expected. {image} {image}
Gold Contracts Wednesday around 890,000 highest in CME history.
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  • #6,988
  • Nov 12, 2016 11:53pm Nov 12, 2016 11:53pm
I had zero bias on the US election, just thought this was funny, even for Trump followers.
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  • #6,989
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:26am Nov 13, 2016 1:26am
Quoting squawk
Many patterns on this setup if it gets there. H&S extension would see the bottom for Cypher and Gartley reversal trade. Copper big extension to upside. No disrespect for Trumpites but theres a Lot of optimism for growth on one mans verbiage. You would think that there will be some continued momentum for the US Dollar with Trump that will see Gold drop. If Trump drops the corp tax and all that money flows back to US that can only lead to Fed increasing rates more than expected. {image} {image}
I'm no expert but in my mind one of Trump's roles in the grand scheme is to bring hope and potential. But like a sort of new branding of 'Papa's recipe' from Walton's mountain, the question isn't whether his elixir will solve the problem, it's - how long will it work?
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #6,990
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:40am Nov 13, 2016 1:40am
Quoting squawk
Many patterns on this setup if it gets there. H&S extension would see the bottom for Cypher and Gartley reversal trade. Copper big extension to upside. No disrespect for Trumpites but theres a Lot of optimism for growth on one mans verbiage. You would think that there will be some continued momentum for the US Dollar with Trump that will see Gold drop. If Trump drops the corp tax and all that money flows back to US that can only lead to Fed increasing rates more than expected. {image} {image}
We have the same way of looking at the gold chart. The downtrend seems destined to go lower for longer but considering the number of known unknowns that are gliding above, not to mention their invisible cousins from another dimension, it seems prudent, for me anyway, to begin picking up pm's in various forms.

http://www.kereport.com/2016/11/11/g...harts-showing/
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #6,991
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:43am Nov 13, 2016 1:43am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} I'm no expert but in my mind one of Trump's roles in the grand scheme is to bring hope and potential. But like a sort of new branding of 'Papa's recipe' from Walton's mountain, the question isn't whether his elixir will solve the problem, it's - how long will it work?
Hi Ben

it's - how long will it work?

I think the corp tax rate in US is 35% Fed rate

The Trump Plan will lower the business tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, and eliminate the corporate alternative minimum tax. This rate is available to all businesses, both small and large, that want to retain the profits within the business.

It will provide a deemed repatriation of corporate profits held offshore at a one-time tax rate of 10 percent.

(You think this would have a significant inflow result to US if it happens.) One time kicker.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/tax-plan

My thoughts for now are continued momentum in dollar but will that work against gold or will it break and both Gold and US move up together? Don't always move inversely. That was a huge amount of selling on gold contracts so you would think the probability that it would contain exiting of long positions for now since Fed IR view may have changed for 2017.

Just some thoughts.
  • #6,992
  • Nov 13, 2016 2:00am Nov 13, 2016 2:00am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Ben it's - how long will it work? I think the corp tax rate in US is 35% Fed rate The Trump Plan will lower the business tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, and eliminate the corporate alternative minimum tax. This rate is available to all businesses, both small and large, that want to retain the profits within the business. It will provide a deemed repatriation of corporate profits held offshore at a one-time tax rate of 10 percent. (You think this would have a significant inflow result to US if it happens.) One time kicker....
That's makes a lot of sense. Beyond dollar strength is the land of unintended consequences I imagine, but I'm getting better and quicker at realigning my views with reality as it presents itself so hopefully I'll make a few quid, I'm sure we all will.
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #6,993
  • Nov 13, 2016 2:02am Nov 13, 2016 2:02am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Ben it's - how long will it work? I think the corp tax rate in US is 35% Fed rate The Trump Plan will lower the business tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, and eliminate the corporate alternative minimum tax. This rate is available to all businesses, both small and large, that want to retain the profits within the business. It will provide a deemed repatriation of corporate profits held offshore at a one-time tax rate of 10 percent. (You think this would have a significant inflow result to US if it happens.) One time kicker....
Hi buddy
Should the USD get too strong before Feds meeting in Dec there is a good chance they may not touch the rates.Feds are very conscious of dollar strength despite of their rhetoric otherwise.
If you push other currencies to breaking point one risks global turmoil specially from emerging markets.
It won't surprise me Feds start dovish tunes soon to lower the greenbacks.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,994
  • Nov 13, 2016 2:06am Nov 13, 2016 2:06am
Some interesting stuff here to accompany mundane chores around the house/garden.

http://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/...d-Malmgren.mp3
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #6,995
  • Nov 13, 2016 2:25am Nov 13, 2016 2:25am
Quoting Lalu
Some interesting stuff here to accompany mundane chores around the house/garden. http://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/...d-Malmgren.mp3
very interesting thank you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,996
  • Nov 13, 2016 2:50am Nov 13, 2016 2:50am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Nice Trade Ben was on this trade as well. Great trade but not as far as you. I was catching planes so pulled out as couldn't watch Fridays session. Got a nice 600 run through to 1.764 and you just can't complain about that even though missed the Friday leg.
Yeeehaaa!
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #6,997
  • Nov 13, 2016 2:57am Nov 13, 2016 2:57am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi buddy Should the USD get too strong before Feds meeting in Dec there is a good chance they may not touch the rates.Feds are very conscious of dollar strength despite of their rhetoric otherwise. If you push other currencies to breaking point one risks global turmoil specially from emerging markets. It won't surprise me Feds start dovish tunes soon to lower the greenbacks. regards

Hi Buddy,

Good points, I think anything is possible at the moment with the Fed and the markets. Theres no doubt Trumps tax plans, if past should increase interest rates substantially in 2017 and even on expectation should push dollar higher on the market pricing in a chance of his plans being past. I personally think the dollar will run another bullish leg, especially now with Trumps inflationary plans (whether or not his plans happen is another thing) If you look around at other markets, SPX, GOLD, 10 year, copper and Yen and the fact that the market now has it priced in at 81% for DEC rate hike would mean Fed will be slaughtered if they don't deliver. But as you said above they still may not touch rates. If you look into the Fed monitor market last week stated pricing to 75 - 100 basis chance for next year by from 10% to 37%. Thats a lot in a few days.

Seems to me some of the trading conditions for Gold, Bond, Dollar and Yen may have changed for now.
  • #6,998
  • Nov 13, 2016 5:15am Nov 13, 2016 5:15am
Quoting Davit
{quote} very interesting thank you
It's a pleasure. Some good things in here too. I particularly like what he says about the creative process at around 33 mins.

http://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/...teenbarger.mp3
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #6,999
  • Nov 13, 2016 4:23pm Nov 13, 2016 4:23pm
Quoting Lalu
Some interesting stuff here to accompany mundane chores around the house/garden. http://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/...d-Malmgren.mp3
Cheers Ben, that was a good interview. They have some good stuff there now.
  • #7,000
  • Nov 13, 2016 4:25pm Nov 13, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting Lalu
{quote} It's a pleasure. Some good things in here too. I particularly like what he says about the creative process at around 33 mins. http://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/...teenbarger.mp3
I am a subscriber to Real Vision. So have gone through a lot of the interviews they have there. This is good stuff.
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