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Trend Followers

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 6, 2016 3:33am Nov 6, 2016 3:33am
Lets share trades and opinions on trade following
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The truth is hidden from you
  • #2
  • Nov 6, 2016 3:43am Nov 6, 2016 3:43am
I`l start by saying that I`m still learning, however I found getting into the new trend by trading a breakout and just manually trailing my stop with the trend much more reliable than trading common reversals from subjective support or resistance... In my opinion, if a price for example breaks a high, than that shows us for a fact that there is for whatever reason a force driving prices higher, and we can react to it by initiating a long position. Which is more logical than trying to trade hope of the price reversing on a previous swing high because its "too high" - which is another myth which the book by W.D. Gann destroyed for me. Which by the way didn`t involve anything to do with astrology or complex geometry and etc. I`m also a believer that time frames are in a way an illusion. The truth is the tick, the closer we are to tick should in theory be better. And all common time frames if its 1h or below are same for everyone. Because no matter where you are in the world, the 1 hour clock moves relatively the same time for everyone. As with 4h and D1... I was once shocked to learn that they are different for different traders. Which I can demonstrate in a screen shot below.
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  • #3
  • Nov 6, 2016 3:51am Nov 6, 2016 3:51am
I was also influenced by Jesse Livermore (yes I`m aware of different views on this forum towards him).
He shared some genius insights which came to him with experience (which cost several bankruptcies).
P.S. one must not forget that "Pivot Point" is a name for a variety of different techniques, some are just simple swing high/low, while some are a well known daily pivot point, the most important thing is - its a simple reference point (could be the price of 1.1243 for example)
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  • #4
  • Nov 6, 2016 3:55am Nov 6, 2016 3:55am
And here is wisdom from a man who payed a high price for it.
P.S. These have simply helped me and showed me improvement in my skills, I`m sharing just like some others do (and trust me on this one, FX Factory has some real even though controversial to general beliefs geniuses)
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  • #5
  • Nov 6, 2016 4:02am Nov 6, 2016 4:02am
I would also like to clarify to encourage others to take part in discussion and hopeful fun that I`m sure that sharing this will in no way negatively affect trend following.
Why ?
1) There are books written on trend following already
2) Many believe that trend following is the same thing as buy and hold (which it isn`t)
3) Many think that trend followers are cretins because they don`t close at 1:3 rr and have a history of more loses than winners (of course ignoring pips)
4) Gurus usually recommend to pick tops and bottoms
5) Trend following could only be taken seriously by those who saw it working, since for many accepting trend following would be equal to an atheist becoming a religious person or the other way round.
The truth is hidden from you
  • #6
  • Nov 6, 2016 4:17am Nov 6, 2016 4:17am
Personally I view my charts zoomed out from m1-m15 used to use candles but now I`m only using simple OHLC bars. Why? With bars my brain and eyes can concentrate of simple market structure which Dow Theory explained well. With candles my brain gets spammed with bullish,bearish,bullish,bullish,bearish candle signals. And I want to keep a neutral view of the market. The first chart just shows how I try to live by the rule - don`t exit unless you have a reason to. And - take care of your loses, and profits will take care of themselves. The only thing I knew in that or any other trade, was where I should put my stop loss. I didn`t know if it would fall for 100 or 200 or even 1000 pips, nobody knew actually.
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  • #7
  • Nov 6, 2016 4:20am Nov 6, 2016 4:20am
I also view the candle sticks as a genius concept, yet taught wrongly.
As shown on the screenshot, same thing but the one on the left shows more valuable detail.
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  • #8
  • Nov 7, 2016 1:34am Nov 7, 2016 1:34am
Quoting MaxenshteinD
Lets share trades and opinions on trade following https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM
You have started a great thread guy. I will be sharing how I catch trend at the beginning. Even if SL is triggered at the beginning I will share how I get in again after retracement.
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  • #9
  • Nov 7, 2016 6:48am Nov 7, 2016 6:48am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} You have started a great thread guy. I will be sharing how I catch trend at the beginning. Even if SL is triggered at the beginning I will share how I get in again after retracement. {image}
Thanks) Hopefully we will get some regular posters here, I`m trying to gather more info on trend following and manual stop trailing at the moment.
The truth is hidden from you
  • #10
  • Nov 7, 2016 9:57am Nov 7, 2016 9:57am
Quoting MaxenshteinD
{quote} Thanks) Hopefully we will get some regular posters here, I`m trying to gather more info on trend following and manual stop trailing at the moment.
Trending market makes it easier to make pips. I was already tired of the kind of scalping charts that are being presented by some traders. You can catch trend when market shows some exhaustion and is either closing above Bollinger Middle Band or has already closed above Middle Band weekly, while the daily strongly closed above Bollinger Upper band for bullish trading. I have my last EURGBP bullish trade. Am already out of all GBP pairs because of Brexit-related uncertainty. If you miss bullish trending at the beginning. We can use the bollinger rejection by candlesticks to join and go bullish. I hope followers can get what I mean. My new positions base of the strategy is the Bullish position on NZDJPY and CHFJPY. I already sent the chart on NZDJPY here.
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  • #11
  • Nov 7, 2016 10:08am Nov 7, 2016 10:08am
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Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #12
  • Nov 7, 2016 10:28am Nov 7, 2016 10:28am
If all the conditions I said are met and you are stopped out at the beginning, don't worry. Wait when candles consistently reject Lower band, then you have the opportunity to get in again. I was stopped out in my first NZDJPY long. In my first chart you see when I got in again and am bullish. This strategy will certainly not work on a strong bearish trend. Only when market has been ranging/sideways and meet the weekly and daily conditions I stated . Opposite is the case for bearish. Am already bearish on EURUSD base on the strategy. On EURUSD after about 180pips, it moved against me. Am still bearish- SL no problem.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #13
  • Nov 8, 2016 6:42am Nov 8, 2016 6:42am
The strategy is still moving - over 300 pips now on NZDJPY.
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Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #14
  • Nov 8, 2016 6:54am Nov 8, 2016 6:54am
I also do my analyses, using currency correlation as an advantage. Although all currencies are correlated, the degree of their correlation differs. And so on NZDJPY long, you would observe that CHF and JPY have some level of correlation. Therefore since I missed NZDCHF bullish trade, I waited for NZDJPY. I hope market does not behave otherwise
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #15
  • Nov 8, 2016 10:05am Nov 8, 2016 10:05am
Quoting MaxenshteinD
I was also influenced by Jesse Livermore (yes I`m aware of different views on this forum towards him). He shared some genius insights which came to him with experience (which cost several bankruptcies). P.S. one must not forget that "Pivot Point" is a name for a variety of different techniques, some are just simple swing high/low, while some are a well known daily pivot point, the most important thing is - its a simple reference point (could be the price of 1.1243 for example) {image} {image}
Yes, one of the best posts that says it all!!!
I love trends and breakouts!
Regards!
  • #16
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:24pm Nov 8, 2016 1:24pm
NZDJPY bollinger upper and lower band are separating apart now, so good. Over 400 pips movement. One thing about trend trading is that we have to be discipline enough during retracement. After much movement, there is bound to a strong retracement. I will then bring out Fibonnaci to follow up the retracement. As I have said earlier trend trading is easier to trade. Good luck.
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Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #17
  • Nov 9, 2016 4:10am Nov 9, 2016 4:10am
Quoting 9jatrader
NZDJPY bollinger upper and lower band are separating apart now, so good. Over 400 pips movement. One thing about trend trading is that we have to be discipline enough during retracement. After much movement, there is bound to a strong retracement. I will then bring out Fibonnaci to follow up the retracement. As I have said earlier trend trading is easier to trade. Good luck. {image}
Nice move
Let Market Tell You
  • #18
  • Nov 9, 2016 9:30am Nov 9, 2016 9:30am
Few hours before today market close AUDNZD is already closing with Dragonfly or Pinbar. When Dragonfly forms at the right place it has high success rate. The good thing about the setup,if it finally close with Dragonfly, is that it's forming during retracement. Am out of NZDJPY long. Hope to get in again. Trump is trumpeting candlestics.
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Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #19
  • Nov 10, 2016 12:48am Nov 10, 2016 12:48am
About an hour before yesterday market close the bears were strong. So I thought I will never a better price yesterday. I have to sleep, only to wake today before UK session and found out that the bulls were in the move. Therefore I have to get in before UK session for better price. I made mistake here also. The mistake was that I should have used "Buy Limit Order". It would have been a very good price. All the same am already bullish. One thing I forgot yesterday was the fact that this Dragonfly was strongly supported by Bollinger Lower Band Breakout.
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  • #20
  • Nov 10, 2016 12:50am Nov 10, 2016 12:50am
I hope to update it and see how it goes.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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