Navigation FX - Technical Analysis

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Happy Friday! Our first post, hope you like it and engage

GBP/USD - Technical Indicator (See photo)

We have drawn a fibo from the swing high to the swing low.

It is clearly seen that the next resistance level on this will be at the 61.8 fibo point (1.28643). With 1.28643 being a great point where the buyers may be exhausted, as we can clearly see RSI is currently at the 55.3 level.

Fundamental analysis: Yesterday we saw the decision in the UK that the judge ruled that parliament must approve article 50 instead of the UK government. An appeal had been set between the 5th-8th December. Until then, there is uncertainty as to when Article 50 can/if be triggered.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis Update

In our earlier analysis (click here) we pointed that the area between 1.1120 - 1.1180 is a good opportunity to go short for bears.

We have been witnessing in the last few sessions that our analysis has proved correct and the bearish momentum is started to build once again.

Bears could get the full control and push parity back to the levels seen last week if 1.1050 support fails to hold.

This could push it further down 100 pips to 1.09517.

GBP/CHF – Indicators

GBP/CHF is currently trawling at 1.2231 has a current resistance of 1.2582.

If this resistance breaks, it may well be that a new resistance will be found between 1.2498 or 1.2645 shooting up over 200 pips.

Make sure to keep a really close eye, as you may make some serious profit here.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/gbpchf-techical-analysis/

NZD/USD - End of Week Technical Analysis

Since the rate cut from RBNZ from 2.00% to 1.75% the NZD has been on a bearish run.

We can see an equidistant channel from the technical analysis. It is approaching the support line of the channel.

By looking at RSI it is well below 50 (momentum turning bearish). If the support was to break the line of the channel, selling pressure will increase.

We estimate that if the channel breaks, NZD/USD will depreciate 500 pips (the height of the channel).

A really big short opportunity to look out for. Keep your eye on it.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/nzdusd-technical-analysis/

Sell orders at 200 Moving Average
Following last Friday's post of NZD/USD - Click here

The equidistant channel has broken, however sellers have not fully come into the market yet. We expect to see a vast amount of sellers emerging once the 200 moving average (purple line) is hit as shown in the graph.

Keep a close eye as this will be a big short opportunity....

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/nzdusd-technical-analysis/

USD/CHF - Potential Bullish Break

USD/CHF is testing its resistance (0.9983) on the height of the triangle.

Currently USD/CHF is trawling around at 0.9967.

With the USDX increasing in price, it may be possible that this triangle will break.

RSI shows its getting closer to 70. The last time it hit this figure was in November 2015. However, after it hit 70, there was a bearish decline. This you must be careful of as it may be a repeat pattern.

GBP/USD – When to go short?

The GBP/USD has been on a recovery trend since for the last 2 weeks. The impact of this was due to PM Theresa May failing to win the high court ruling for the government to impose Article 50.

After the volatility from the presidential elections, it reached its peak at 1.2674.

Noting the long term trend is still bearish. The real question is, when shall we start building up short again?

The bearish momentum could start again after the break of the trend line support for the last 2 weeks recovery as we highlighted on the chart.

The levels to watch 1.2450 and 1.2340.

XAU/USD – Is there a new hope for Gold?

This is a real question many of us have been asking for some time now.

Gold has been on the increase with regards to instability and concern in global markets with this years peaks reaching to $1374 on the 11th July after UK’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union indefinitely. Since then, gold fell down to $1241 on the 7th October about amid ease that the world economy was not slowing down.

Tensions in the US elections was a main driver to the latest increase in gold prices in October and November. With most of the world stunned at Trump winning the US elections over Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the USA. Gold rose over 600 pips after the result.

Yet, gold fell sharply to $1211. Why is this? Investors saw that Trump is not as ‘aggressive’ as he was personed with his first speech indicating that he would work with all countries. Investors saw this as a positive note, appreciating the strong dollar and also having a thriving stock rally.

What hope is there at the movement?

Since USDX is on a strong move due to the increasing probability of a fed hike, it turns out that a Trump presidency might not be a big concern for markets, its is too early to talk about a decent gold rally. However, we may see a $10 recovery to $1240 due to short covering if the $1231 resistance is broken.

More here: http://www.navigationfx.com/xauusd-new-hope-gold/

EUR/USD – Head and Shoulders Pattern

The EUR/USD has been on a downtrend for quite some time.

The last time we saw a 1.06 low in the EUR/USD was December 2015. So do you think it is going to go even lower?

We have drawn a downward trend line which seems to be very consistent. In the highlighted area we can see a head and shoulders pattern. With both of these properties present, EUR/USD may be expected to fall 100 pips (the height between the head and the neckline).

With the increasing probability of a US fed hike, making the dollar appreciate, this can also support the technical analysis.

Crude Oil – Ascending Triangle

Crude oil prices had recorded a $2 rally yesterday after Opec Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said that they are fine tuning the production cut agreement for the first time in eight years. On Sept 28th, OPEC decided to reduce its output range between 32.5-33 million barrels a day where they are expected to meet this target on Nov 30th. A recent Bloomberg survey found that in October 34.02 million barrels were produced a day.

From looking at the graph, we drew an ascending trend line. We can see that there is a strong resistance at $52.20 where it has been tested twice as well as a strong support thus forming an ascending triangle.

If the rally continues and the resistance breaks, then the triangle implies there may be an increase of $16, a great long opportunity. However, as mentioned before, we are expecting to see weather OPEC can get to the target production that they are planning.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/crude-oi...ical-analysis/

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EUR/GBP – What next for this major parity?

EUR/GBP has been on an upwards trend since BREXIT.

We see from the technical analysis that RSI is well in the undersold area and a invasion of buyers may well be looking to come in. With the RSI not passing under 30 since March 2015, it is highly unlikely too unless next weeks GDP data is not to expectations.

We expect to see buyers come in the market on the upward trend line which acts as a support.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/eurgbp-technical-analysis/

NZD/USD - Strong support formed

NZD/USD has been on a relatively easy trend to follow.

The trend has been bullish since 20th January following reports of the economy growing.

On the 8th September the RBNZ decided to cut interest rates to 2.0% which led to an appreciation in the currency. We then see the same trend again on the 9th November where RBNZ cut interest rates to 1.75%. The currency appreciated over 380 pips.

We can see on the graph that a strong support has occurred (0.698), forming another channel perpendicular to the strong bullish channel in blue. RSI at 37 indicating to us that it is oversold. Maybe a good time to enter a long position.

If the resistance is broken (0.7056) we can expect it to surge to at least 0.7084. More to follow later on, keep a close eye.

USD/CAD Bearish Flag Formation

USDCAD has been under pressure form the strong US dollar because of the recent oil rally from OPEC expectations to reduce production.

The fall in USDCAD since the beginning of last week has created a bullish flag formation which implies when the flag is violated the price will move as much as the height of the flag which is 150-160 pips.

Fundamentally oil prices are set to decrease, therefore resulting in CAD weakness for this formation.

For more detailed analysis: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdcad-technical-analysis/

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AUD/USD - Triangle with strong supports

The Australian Dollar has been forming a bearish downtrend against its US counterpart in the aftermath of the US presidential election.

Currently we can see that at the 0.7363 level provides a good basis support. A strong support had been formed on the 21st November 2016 at 0.7309 where the bullish trend bounced. Even so, we can clearly see a triangle has been formed.

If we see the 0.7363 level pushes through, it will most certainly test the strong 0.7309 level.

Currently AUD/USD is trading at 0.73918

For the full article: http://www.navigationfx.com/audusd-technical-analysis/

XTI/USD OPEC Crude Oil – Technical Analysis


Crude Oil – Head and Shoulders Pattern

The headline news this week is OPEC and Oil. Will OPEC deliver a production cut for oil?

All the eyes are on Vienna and OPEC’s annual gathering with a waited decision on production levels. An OPEC deal on Wednesday delivering a concrete supply reduction of at least 1M barrels a day, with non-members such as Russia on board could increase oil beyond the $40-$50 range.

Traders pushed Brent towards $50 a barrel last week. News on Friday that Saudi Arabia would not attend a meeting with Russia and Kazakhstan on Monday pulled back crude below $48.

Following our technical analyst. We had drawn an ascending triangle which seems to be very consistent as shown in our recent post. On the diagram we have highlighted the 2 shoulders. With both of these properties present, Crude Oil may be expected to fall $9 (the height between the head and the neckline).

The area highlighted in blue shows an estimation of where we believe this may happen if OPEC meeting.

However, there is much uncertainty still fundamentally, we are awaiting to hear more from OPEC on Wednesday.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/xtiusd-o...ical-analysis/

USDCAD – Channel formed and latest from OPEC

The Canadian dollar has started the week with strong gains. On the release front, we just recieved the current account data from Canada

1. Canada Current Account (Q3) – -18.3B vs. -16.8B exp. Previous -19.0B

OPEC members will meet in Vienna on Wednesday, hoping to reach an agreement to reduce and cap oil production in order to increase oil prices. OPEC would like to include non-OPEC member countries such as Russia (in favour of freeze, but not in cut).

Recent developments include Indonesia’s energy minister who has sparked the selloff, by telling reporters in Vienna that he’s “not optimistic” that the cartel will agree a supply cuts deal tomorrow. It’s far from certain that OPEC members will reach an agreement. Iraq, Libya and Nigeria have all asked to be left out of a deal which would require production cuts.

Previous attempts to reach a cap agreement have ended in failure, and it’s questionable whether this time will be any different. For those of you new to Forex, Canada exports lots of Oil (25% of their total exports) making USDCAD correlated with the price of Oil (Oil goes up, CAD goes up). Given the uncertainty as to whether an agreement will be reached, we could see continue to see strong movement from the Canadian dollar this week, as the currency is closely tied to oil prices. If a deal is reached, the Canadian dollar could post strong gains.

The success, or failure, of Opec’s meeting appears to depend on Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq. Analysts reckon that the authorities in Tehran and Baghdad had hoped that Riyadh would swallow the proposed output cuts itself, allowing them to keep pumping. But Saudi are taking a harder line, even though their economy is suffering badly from the low oil price.

On the 4 hour (H4) graph, we can see a very nice channel being formed.

There also is a strong support at 1.3395.

If we see OPEC production cut we could see the support and the channel break making at least 150 pips. However, if OPEC can not finalise a deal tomorrow for oil prices it may pass the resistance of 1.3586 bringing in well over 125 pips.

We will keep you updated on OPEC

AUD/USD – Triangle with correction imminent

If you remember last week we posted an AUD/USD triangle, click here

There was a sharp decline, with a recovery starting on the 18th November. However, a correction could be imminent.

The 38.2 fibo level suggests it has been acting as a strong resistance. If the trend line breaks, an overwhelming amount of sellers may enter the market making a correction that started at the beginning of last week bringing AUDUSD down to 0.73385 (over 100 pips).

Likewise with AUDCAD there was a 100 pip fall today. We wait to hear more form OPEC and AUDUSD.

For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/audusd-technical-analysis/