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  • #1,079,341
  • Edited 2:04am Nov 4, 2016 1:39am | Edited 2:04am
My Intraday View

Although everybody is bullish.... I think that D1 TL remains very tough even pierced by the polls/NFP spikes.
Thus, ~1.1160 strong resistance

NFP expected better (even 200k !!!) despite the clues that were given by
other publications regarding the labor market released this week, the ADP report and the ISM indices.

If NFP 200k and Hillary up in polls (over the weekend) we might see 1.0860 soon.
Otherwise the main D1 TL will be up-broken and E/U will skyroketing at 1.1300 - 1.1400.

Trade safe these days you all!
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  • #1,079,342
  • Nov 4, 2016 1:39am Nov 4, 2016 1:39am
In case anyone is interested, NFP today - consensus/forecast: 175k

Banks' predictions:

Nomura: 170k
Danske: 170k
Goldman: 185k
BoAML: 170k
Barclays: 175k
SEB: 190k
UBS: 175k
Credit Agricole: 185k
BNPP: 180k
CIBC: 160k
Morgan Stanley: 205k
  • #1,079,343
  • Nov 4, 2016 1:59am Nov 4, 2016 1:59am
Quoting MrsTrader
In case anyone is interested, NFP today - consensus/forecast: 175k Banks' predictions: Nomura: 170k Danske: 170k Goldman: 185k BoAML: 170k Barclays: 175k SEB: 190k UBS: 175k Credit Agricole: 185k BNPP: 180k CIBC: 160k Morgan Stanley: 205k
Thank you. Excellent outlook!
...so E/U bearish
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  • #1,079,344
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:10am Nov 4, 2016 2:10am
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  • #1,079,345
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:28am Nov 4, 2016 2:28am
EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged today compared to yesterday's price. The pair has been caught in the range around 1.11. Market participants are anticipating the most important data of the month later today, namely the NFP's and Jobs report data.
  • #1,079,346
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:41am Nov 4, 2016 2:41am
I think it's better to wait for news realease and then join the trend on lower timeframes. News trading was profitable few years ago, now most MM brokers won't allow to catch breakout with pending orders.
Control the risk
  • #1,079,347
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:47am Nov 4, 2016 2:47am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Intraday View Although everybody is bullish.... I think that D1 TL remains very tough even pierced by the polls/NFP spikes. Thus, ~1.1160 strong resistance NFP expected better (even 200k !!!) despite the clues that were given by other publications regarding the labor market released this week, the ADP report and the ISM indices. If NFP 200k and Hillary up in polls (over the weekend) we might see 1.0860 soon. Otherwise the main D1 TL will be up-broken and E/U will skyroketing at 1.1300 - 1.1400. Trade safe these days you all! {image}


Quoting Jonstaples
{quote} The currency pair is now testing the 50-day moving average @ 1.1111 and this can be a good turning point, however if price closes above it we may get another bullish run up to the 200-day moving average @ 1.1199.


The currency pair is showing signs of slowing down plus finding a hard time in clearing the 50-day moving average now @ 1.1108.

Today should be a wide range trend day and my strategy is as follows:

Long above previous day high @ 1.1126 target @ 1.1198 (200-day moving average)
Short below previous day low @ 1.1059 target @ 1.0990 (previous swing high)
  • #1,079,348
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:05am Nov 4, 2016 3:05am
Quoting Jonstaples
{quote} {quote} The currency pair is showing signs of slowing down plus finding a hard time in clearing the 50-day moving average now @ 1.1108. Today should be a wide range trend day and my strategy is as follows: Long above previous day high @ 1.1126 target @ 1.1198 (200-day moving average) Short below previous day low @ 1.1059 target @ 1.0990 (previous swing high)
I agree with this strategy of Jonstaples, is the most logical one.

Regards!
  • #1,079,349
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:15am Nov 4, 2016 3:15am
If the price exceed the Head, then setup is nulified :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #1,079,350
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:32am Nov 4, 2016 3:32am
Quoting Jonstaples
{quote} {quote} The currency pair is showing signs of slowing down plus finding a hard time in clearing the 50-day moving average now @ 1.1108. Today should be a wide range trend day and my strategy is as follows: Long above previous day high @ 1.1126 target @ 1.1198 (200-day moving average) Short below previous day low @ 1.1059 target @ 1.0990 (previous swing high)
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Hi all
ÂÂ
That's a breakout strategy above. But it's Friday so very unsafe.

I keep adding shorts. 1.1125 Â1150.
Spikes expected. NFP is a dark cloud that could wash away the euro
Then low markets, reacting to Trump. The bamboozle from pound is keeping E up......
Dark waters to be in.....
Sell Aud if you wish, buy E/A but tiny....
GL
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,079,351
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:45am Nov 4, 2016 3:45am
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Hi all That's a breakout strategy above. But it's Friday so very unsafe. I keep adding shorts. 1.1125 1150. Spikes expected. NFP is a dark cloud that could wash away the euro Then low markets, reacting to Trump. The bamboozle from pound is keeping E up...... Dark waters to be in..... Sell Aud if you wish, buy E/A but tiny.... GL
With all respect, why do you keep adding shorts when the price is in a strong bullish move and there is a big chance that the price will go up even more!? Even in the shorter TF's there is no reversal pattern. On shorter TF's (less than daily), the price is just consolidating between yesterday's low and high. Untill the price will clear one of this levels we don't know what to do, to buy or to sell.

Regards!
  • #1,079,352
  • Edited 4:22am Nov 4, 2016 4:09am | Edited 4:22am
Quoting pipshaman
{quote} With all respect, why do you keep adding shorts when the price is in a strong bullish move and there is a big chance that the price will go up even more!? Even in the shorter TF's there is no reversal pattern. On shorter TF's (less than daily), the price is just consolidating between yesterday's low and high. Untill the price will clear one of this levels we don't know what to do, to buy or to sell. Regards!
Because US economy is improving and hiking interest rate *again* soon, while GBP deserting EUR which is still *quite happy with* negative interest rate.
  • #1,079,353
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:10am Nov 4, 2016 4:10am
my opinion:
closure 30min under 1.10968 -> short
closure 30min above 1.11059 -> long to 1.1121

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If you do not know who you are, the Forex is the worst place to find you
  • #1,079,354
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:28am Nov 4, 2016 4:28am
Quoting pipshaman
{quote} With all respect, why do you keep adding shorts when the price is in a strong bullish move and there is a big chance that the price will go up even more!? Even in the shorter TF's there is no reversal pattern. On shorter TF's (less than daily), the price is just consolidating between yesterday's low and high. Untill the price will clear one of this levels we don't know what to do, to buy or to sell. Regards!
The hourly H, HH and subsequent LH could be taken as a reversal pattern. I'm expecting a correction down to '09710 zone provided the Asian low is broken.
  • #1,079,355
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:30am Nov 4, 2016 4:30am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} The hourly H, HH and subsequent LH could be taken as a reversal pattern. I'm expecting a correction down to '09710 zone provided the Asian low is broken.
A clear break of 1.10864 would be a good time to short
  • #1,079,356
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:32am Nov 4, 2016 4:32am
short for me.

Quoting skassacomput
my opinion: closure 30min under 1.10968 -> short closure 30min above 1.11059 -> long to 1.1121 {image}
If you do not know who you are, the Forex is the worst place to find you
  • #1,079,357
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:34am Nov 4, 2016 4:34am
Quoting skassacomput
short for me. {quote}
Good luck!
  • #1,079,358
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:37am Nov 4, 2016 4:37am
Quoting pipshaman
{quote} With all respect, why do you keep adding shorts when the price is in a strong bullish move and there is a big chance that the price will go up even more!? Even in the shorter TF's there is no reversal pattern. On shorter TF's (less than daily), the price is just consolidating between yesterday's low and high. Untill the price will clear one of this levels we don't know what to do, to buy or to sell. Regards!
Â
You are good guy, nice charts, valid comments
Thanks for the question.
The reasons are few:
If i only traded daily frames - so boring.... So i look at 4H and 30.
I put small trades when i see reversal, low high....
Short side IS SURE THING.
If i miss some trades - i kick my ass ÂSo I prefer to be in and wait, not miss it. It's microlots. No worry.
Stock market is glum - why..... This reflects on Aud, then euro.
Euro has 2 trendlines above. So just waiting to touch there...BUT NO BUYING. Well i kept two small longs
If i waited for breakout - that's 2 trades a week maximum ÂWhen i become full time I'll trade less, big lots, sure things. But not yet.
I do have several accounts - long term 1 and two for strategy. So i follow my signals..
Â
Hope I'm helpful.
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Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,079,359
  • Edited 5:02am Nov 4, 2016 4:38am | Edited 5:02am
Technical analysis it's irrelevant ahead the NFP & elections !
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  • #1,079,360
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:39am Nov 4, 2016 4:39am
If 1.105 gives way down, then top established at 1.112 area
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