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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,761
  • Nov 3, 2016 9:09am Nov 3, 2016 9:09am
Quoting change
{quote} No polemic here goosebone, message was not adressed to you in particular ... I think we can give the same message (look elsewhere for trading) but with kind manners and more efficiency and it is what i tried to do It's a public forum no? have newbies right to post silly questions too and have an answer or not? Otherwise there are skype rooms, paid courses, etc... Peace bro
I get you. All for kind manners. I may have missed that mark ☺. Only question whether it's more helpful to the guy asking if you lend a hand on the 5M indicator or to just express to him there's better ways to get ahead that's all.
  • #144,762
  • Nov 3, 2016 9:17am Nov 3, 2016 9:17am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} {quote} Imho GU is not the right pair to go long GBP. Too much difference FA wise....maybe better EG, GA, GN if you like... You get the idea. I chose GN instead of GU, mostly because of that thingy...and the map NU is just about the same result if you care to draw it for yourself.. {image}
GBP side yes agree. But I am actually currently very bearish USD side because the Presidential election circus ( That can last to long after the election day), we have seen that before, Trump will only accept result if he is the winner. And if he is will Hillary accept. It can be decided in court long after election day in this circus. Maybe early to go in to that now since for now it is just a possible outcome.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,763
  • Nov 3, 2016 9:22am Nov 3, 2016 9:22am
Updates from the UK front... things getting messier and messier as expected now we get to the supreme court while government wont stop the offensive until they see blood in the streets. From football poppies, 19th century nationalism to everything that has the word or anything international or cooperation is a swear word ... 2017 is going to be a hell of nasty year for the UK...

Whatever the case, hard brexit and 100% isolation suffering a short term setback today until appeal after appeal and political BS etc etc takes place so:

--> Changing short term outlook in Sterling from Sell to soft Neutral till further data.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,764
  • Nov 3, 2016 9:29am Nov 3, 2016 9:29am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} GBP side yes agree. But I am actually currently very bearish USD side because the Presidential election circus ( That can last to long after the election day), we have seen that before, Trump will only accept result if he is the winner. And if he is will Hillary accept. It can be decided in court long after election day in this circus. Maybe early to go in to that now since for now it is just a possible outcome.
Few days ( until election) is nowhere in our map- short term is 1.5- 6 months bro. 5 days is peanuts here...
Not so long ago EU needed 53 days to complete the short term leg and I bet it could have been worse too..
PVSRA
  • #144,765
  • Nov 3, 2016 9:37am Nov 3, 2016 9:37am
"5 days is peanuts here"

AMEN to that! haha
  • #144,766
  • Nov 3, 2016 9:39am Nov 3, 2016 9:39am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Few days is nowhere in our map- short term is 1.5- 6 months bro. 5 days is peanuts here...
Yes, And I am not sure that this circus end after 5 days . We can come in situation where we still in the middle or even the end of November do not know who will be the next President in US.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,767
  • Nov 3, 2016 9:55am Nov 3, 2016 9:55am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Yes, And I am not sure that this circus end after 5 days . We can come in situation where we still in the middle or even the end of November do not know who will be the next President in US.
Yes, possible too so let's see. But I decided not to trade GU for the resons stated above. There are plenty of other pairs to choose from.
PVSRA
  • #144,768
  • Nov 3, 2016 10:44am Nov 3, 2016 10:44am
Quoting sisse
Updates from the UK front... things getting messier and messier as expected now we get to the supreme court while government wont stop the offensive until they see blood in the streets. From football poppies, 19th century nationalism to everything that has the word or anything international or cooperation is a swear word ... 2017 is going to be a hell of nasty year for the UK... Whatever the case, hard brexit and 100% isolation suffering a short term setback today until appeal after appeal and political BS etc etc takes place so: --> Changing short...
I'm short right now, but I rather fancy trying some longs near 1.2220/30, guess I'll also try at 1.2318 also...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 22 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,769
  • Nov 3, 2016 12:19pm Nov 3, 2016 12:19pm
I'm enable to draw charts at work. I'm using Earleone GU chart to identify the range and the flip in the new Neutral Short term outlook.
As we are currently in the flip area (1.245), it is wise to avoid entering until clarity be established. The range is 1.21-1.31. Is it correct?


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1478179125
  • #144,770
  • Nov 3, 2016 12:51pm Nov 3, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting USD-Bear
USDOLLAR 12210 seems to resist a bit, minimum retrace to 12070 looks likely to me USDOLLAR H4: {image}
target reached, looking for an EU short in this neighborhood if 12070 supports

USDOLLAR D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #144,771
  • Nov 3, 2016 1:24pm Nov 3, 2016 1:24pm
A decent day for trading, Europe unexpectedly in full control today. EZ keep printing decent number and softening QE is on sight for next ECB reflected in Gold and Euro in solid bid while the UK in full drama mode trading air and politics.

Despite Europe today, all eyes are in the US. NFP for the simple RMT flow but election is in the driver seat via risk.

With exception of tomorrow news, all markets will be subdue till US decides. We are aligning for a very close race with Americans flirting to shoot themselves in the foot and markets obviously not really happy with global economy heading back to a 19th century environment in both sides of the Atlantic ....

Lots of politics in the next few days, but for now we need to clear key NFP with hikes DEC reaching a peak ok 80% today. Good numbers tomorrow and will clear all expectations for first hike ....

sisse

Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I'm short right now, but I rather fancy trying some longs near 1.2220/30, guess I'll also try at 1.2318 also... {image}
Cluster the fck confirmed and made of a collage of politics and macrofactors, The easy and simple trading part this year in Sterling is gone.

Not interested in trading Sterling to the long side (although given the super wide range it will be interesting for those intraday trading for a while). I would only fully load hands via risk (brexit or poor numbers) and to lesser via Dollar. 'Meat' of the moves are gone, only the 'bone' left ...a juicy one I must say.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,772
  • Nov 3, 2016 1:25pm Nov 3, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting change
{quote} come on guys you can help whit less effort than what you are spending refusing ... Botan in the image in blu the divergence i can see. That said i don't use divergences neither stochastic so i can be wrong. About what has been said is true that if you check last months of this thread you can find much valuable information (much greater than many other threads here in FF): i suggest to do it even if it is a big task {image}
Thank you Change!

Thought the one should consider local HH, that's why I saw no div (the attached file).

Regarding your and Earleone's suggestion on studying last thread pages, will do it!

Thanks again!

PS: I was looking for a thread on FF like "You can ask anything here", but had no success, so I ended up being here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #144,773
  • Nov 3, 2016 1:57pm Nov 3, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting sisse
all eyes are in the US. NFP for the simple RMT flow but election is in the driver seat via risk. With exception of tomorrow news, all markets will be subdue till US decides. We are aligning for a very close race with Americans flirting to shoot themselves in the foot and markets obviously not really happy with global economy heading back to a 19th century environment in both sides of the Atlantic .... Lots of politics in the next few days, but for now we need to clear key NFP with hikes DEC reaching a peak ok 80% today. Good numbers tomorrow and...
my take is that the NFP and implications of that for the Dec FOMC, any considerations re: the Fed, now that is all a cold back seat to the elections drama. The ^VIX tells the tale. We could see another 10 pts tacked on there by 11/08-09 if the election is very close. If there is a "Constitutional Crisis" post-election, well that could drag out into who knows what?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,774
  • Nov 3, 2016 2:47pm Nov 3, 2016 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}my take is that the NFP and implications of that for the Dec FOMC, any considerations re: the Fed, now that is all a cold back seat to the elections drama. The ^VIX tells the tale. We could see another 10 pts tacked on there by 11/08-09 if the election is very close. If there is a "Constitutional Crisis" post-election, well that could drag out into who knows what? {image}
What constitutes a "constitutional crisis"? I dont understand
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,775
  • Nov 3, 2016 3:05pm Nov 3, 2016 3:05pm
big crazy exogenous events are never "priced in"....but that's where the life of a speculator gets interesting. The spoos could drop 300-500 points in the week (or 3) after the election if there's the right ingredients for panic and a rush to cash & Treasurys
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-03_1254spy2.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,776
  • Nov 3, 2016 3:10pm Nov 3, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting manosk
What constitutes a "constitutional crisis"? I dont understand
google it. It's lunchtime and I have a date with a gyro...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,777
  • Nov 3, 2016 3:35pm Nov 3, 2016 3:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}google it. It's lunchtime and I have a date with a gyro...
Checked it thanks. I didnt know that the GOP had threatened with impeachment if Clinton wins. I see now

Enjoy your gyro, excellent choice
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,778
  • Nov 3, 2016 3:55pm Nov 3, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting sisse
...In my books ES 2070.xx [check/in play]with strong intermediate stop at 2100.xx [check] for the hikes is pretty much a done deal for the hikes play. This week will confirm it. A major fck up from Europe or in US election will only add pace and unlock further levels down for a knee jerk reaction extension ...
US equities entering in the clearing handle 2070.xx but failed to clear my main target by crumbs. Deleveraging manually here on the close before NFP and leaving remaining for the just in case tomorrow....a very tricky environment for trading because of election going up side down and the clash with rates, europe risk and QE. .

Major hands all over the place for the next few weeks and most conservative hands heading for the sidelines as markets are sending strong risk off signals for over 2 weeks.

On the rest of the board, Euro emerging as major gainer and risk off instrument in all these while US and UK play shooting themselves BS politics....

I am personally very careful and edging to be completely flat in the next few sessions as I really (most market participant) don't know where are heading on the circus in the next few weeks. Economics and Markets have been hijacked one more time by politicians so activating the traditional since the Debt Crisis: "Tweet Mode trading" from today close ....

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{quote}my take is that the NFP and implications of that for the Dec FOMC, any considerations re: the Fed, now that is all a cold back seat to the elections drama. The ^VIX tells the tale. We could see another 10 pts tacked on there by 11/08-09 if the election is very close. If there is a "Constitutional Crisis" post-election, well that could drag out into who knows what? {image}
Agree, rates will be subdue until election are clearer either by another scandal or a clear winner. Sadly we are aligning for circus if Clinton doesn't find away to get out of the nutter game ... things change fast in politics, and with nasty politics in between ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,779
  • Edited 4:58pm Nov 3, 2016 3:58pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Checked it thanks. I didnt know that the GOP had threatened with impeachment if Clinton wins. I see now
You could envision 'crisis' (from a market point of view) occurring in a plethora of ways. Any of the anomalies that would give way to a Trump win are the first to consider of course. At least one of them, as I understand it, has to do with an exact tie between both parties in electoral votes that does not make the required 270 due to third parties skimming off the needed electoral votes to get there. This scenario could be a special kind of clusterf*k. Trump really riling up enough people re:rigged election after losing could be crisis-like especially if you get a riot or two going here and there. Trump win anomalies could include: indictment of HRC over the weekend, No one gets 270 therefore the Republican house votes Trump in, Clinton/Ozzy sex tape release, etc. The impeachment thing is (sad to say) a kind of "boy who cried wolf" story these days. Americans are a little tired of those type of headlines and won't believe it til they see it imho.
  • #144,780
  • Nov 3, 2016 5:36pm Nov 3, 2016 5:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If there is a "Constitutional Crisis" post-election, well that could drag out into who knows what? {image}
ahh, memories of hanging, dimpled, and pregnant chad.....

for those with an interest, here is a timeline of the entire circus....



http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATI...00timeline.php
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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