The Really Useless Thread

need a perfect storm to break the CBs' grip, could happen in a big way if the bear influences - (ME war, EU disintegration, US elections, Dec Fed, actual hurricanes,etc) - line up. Maybe that is unfolding rat now? A spell of market turmoil to set the stage for US elections, then a orgiastic Santa Rally into the new Clintonian Golden Age?

giving UK100 shorts a try @ 7036

UK100 D1:

After the momentum play and a breakout @1.112-1.113, do any one see a test of the same level again ....

Possible, I been putting in some S/R levels on daily with yellow lines . ( Not to the tick, I look at them as areas)

thats possible, but i see all yellow lines in your chart which are distributed in the whole chopzone of brexit bar .... according to your chart 1.1145x is a good one which i feel is like a max in such a heavily loaded boat ... and there will be a good amount of chances that it is not even going thru the 1.106x... because right now according to the situation i dont see any fresh buyer's .... those who are stuck in the middle of the course are the one which will remain stuck for a handsome amount of time....just a thought ....

USDOLLAR 12210 seems to resist a bit, minimum retrace to 12070 looks likely to me

USDOLLAR H4:

If a lot of bears take profit it will also have some effect.

Decent European morning session over with all markets moving as expected. Nothing to see till NY.


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Fundamental post alert....feel free to skip all that if you have read it before ....

Well as you know the BOE (as FED, BOJ, etc) has different mandate than the ECB. While the ECB only mandate is monetary policy and keeping inflation on check, the BOE has to do both: Control Inflation/monetary police and also promote economic growth when needed (wont obviously replace completely fiscal or real economic factors).

What is happening right now (despite Brexit etc) is that the Pound has been not devalue but completely annihilated very fast and in very little time.

--> In economics, a devaluation of a currency (via monetary policy or external shock) has some short term positive impact as you probably know as a country will get more money for its exports, making the external trade sectors more competitive in relative terms.

This usually works in the short term to correct Current Account and/or Balance of Payment issues, however if its overdone and done just for artificially creating a competitive advantage the impact in the mid and long term is very very very bad via inflation, loss of productivity, reduction in real wages and the end triggering ' beggar-thy-neighbour' [check wiki if you are not sure about the term] policies [which is exactly what the current UK government is flirting with).

-> On the one hand, the inevitable devaluation of the Pound after Brexit has made a huge positive impact (check equities riding the pig) as out of the blue lots of companies (export related and tourism etc) make a killer in their balance sheet via the exchange rate differentials (or cheaper tourism ...read London summer of tourism this year with Europeans flooding the shores for the bargain).

-> On the other hand the devaluation of Sterling is so fast and sharp that the other side of the coin. All the imports and sectors not depending on external trade (which represent +60% of the GDP in the UK) are getting hammered. For every penny extra a UK manufacturing is making artificially on exchange rate, the cost of production and loss of productivity increases geometrically.... basically the only ones benefiting after the initial impact of Sterling are the tiny manufacturing sector for exports (less than 8% of GDP) while the rest of the economy will start suffering via inflation.

--> If you add on top, that this is not a monetary issue but we are talking about potentially losing access to the biggest trading block in the world, uncertainty via Brexit, Companies relocating, etc etc ,etc you have a massive fck up on the making.

--> So you see the BOE have to devalue and be loose to offset the impact of Brexit and keep certainty on check until the talking heads decide how bad will be the damage, and in the other hand CANT allow Sterling to go down much further as inflation, monetary policy and economic growth will go down the drain on each handle we go down below and already 35 years devaluation.

In a nutshell from a BOE perspective , the odds of just free falling sustainably below 1.20xx for more than a few weeks are rather low very low as the consequences of that happening will trigger a major collapse of the UK economy as a whole for the long term (not in play at all for now)

-> Check last year's end and Pre Brexit posts for very detailed explanations of all the factors in play....one of the most important one was that the BOE will have a massive cluster fck to solve in case of vote Brexit ...and is panning out as textbook so far....

I hope it helps ....

sisse
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A quick update on Iteration 19. 1.098x target tested for those tracking the slow stoch entry but it's same trade we opened table yesterday so just a quick update for the record ...

Sell (Stoch Entry)
-> LMT SELL 1.128x [check]-> TP1 => 1.118x [check] -> TP2 =>1.108x[check] =>TP3=> 1.098X[check] => HOME RUN in play....... | STP => 1.128x[trailled ]

Sisse: Any words on Equities particularly with bad data from China? It seems ready to drop.

Indeed ...

....and full blown up crisis in the UK confirmed. AS widely expected all dominos falling one by one on the Brexit front, this time a KEY political development that is one of the key ones for the future, with Scotland announcing a new Referendum to split from the UK....

Watch-out for Sterling triggering a fresh imminent break down alerts 'don't ask' the implication of a clean sweep at these levels .... uff.... Risk in play and all ears on the BOE and to lesser extend the talking heads...

sisse

Expecting a todays high near 1.105x .... missed a very good valid entry ....

...and ....almost instantly watch-out for GY joining the same line and even stronger than GU triggering a fresh imminent break down alerts to complete the final target for those in the swing from above....

sisse

.....and to complete the triple combo right before the open,for those swinging EG triggering imminent break up alerts unlocking final stop (0.946x) before opening parity ...

sisse

UJ

no brainer ........ GL today ...expecting a jittery end of the day after London goes home and the talking heads hijack markets in the next few days...

sisse

Eu

Yeah, I'd have preferred the clean momentum break though.

THANKS CHINA

Heads up SPX

[quote=sisse;9195878].... Fundamental post alert....feel free to skip all that .... {quote} Well as you know the BOE (as FED, BOJ, etc) has different mandate than the ECB....

Thanks Sisse for taking time to explain so much in detail, i'll prolly need a whole day to absorb this