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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,401
  • Oct 27, 2016 9:19am Oct 27, 2016 9:19am
16:18 Now watch out because as written, for any meaningfull continuation downside we need acceptaion below both yesterday pit session low (22103) and today "overnight low" (current GB low 21997). If not consider the possibility of a retracement back inside yesterday pit session and mybe above it. Also note a lot of single pips for B period.

But let's see.

If we will have continuation downside a possible target is the minus development left by 10.25 session at (2136-21473). But again, watch out.
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  • #1,402
  • Oct 27, 2016 9:48am Oct 27, 2016 9:48am
16:48
A fast recap.
B period high at old half back/yesterday preUS open (22143). C period high at round number 2200. C period inside B period: balance and possible new break from here. We are in an attempted break down from yesterday pit session (22103-22483).
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  • #1,403
  • Oct 27, 2016 10:03am Oct 27, 2016 10:03am
17:03 Acceptation below overnight and yesterday pit session. Poor low made by D and C periods.

PreUS and PIt session put together in one single profile shows a considerable elongation: it looks like liquidation. So watch out. Also we have already 3 anomalies above. Carry these information forward. We are in one timeframing lower. (for now)
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  • #1,404
  • Oct 27, 2016 10:30am Oct 27, 2016 10:30am
17:30 Last period of London. GB lowest close for October at 21596. Yesterday close for London at 22328. Still a poor low. D inside period of C. Still one timeframing lower from preUS open.
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  • #1,405
  • Oct 27, 2016 10:41am Oct 27, 2016 10:41am
Quoting Lock
17:30 Last period of London. GB lowest close for October at 21596. Yesterday close for London at 22328. Still a poor low. D inside period of C. Still one timeframing lower from preUS open.
17:41+1GMT Watch out here: if the break fails below a balance the first natural target is at the opposite side of it. If the break succeed you want to see acceleration below balance. And after that acceptation below it. If not..

Note that E period is currently tagging yesterday GB session low.
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  • #1,406
  • Oct 27, 2016 10:44am Oct 27, 2016 10:44am
Quoting Lock
17:30 Last period of London. GB lowest close for October at 21596. Yesterday close for London at 22328. Still a poor low. D inside period of C. Still one timeframing lower from preUS open.
lowest close of October for London tagged at the pip.
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  • #1,407
  • Oct 27, 2016 10:48am Oct 27, 2016 10:48am
17:48+1GMT Yesterday low (made by Tokyo at 2155) tested: note the automatic buy right below it.
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  • #1,408
  • Oct 27, 2016 11:02am Oct 27, 2016 11:02am
18:02 After the test below yesterday low and below the October lowest London close let's see if this trend down could continue or not. Note the E period high exactly tagging the early morning B period low (2180): it's a normal reference for day time frame traders. Just to remember who are your competitors in current market and who is carrying forward this move downside.
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  • #1,409
  • Oct 27, 2016 11:32am Oct 27, 2016 11:32am
Quoting Lock
17:48+1GMT Yesterday low (made by Tokyo at 2155) tested: note the automatic buy right below it.
Hello Lock
I really wanna know how can we say that the price is retracing from this level using ur strategy?
  • #1,410
  • Oct 27, 2016 11:33am Oct 27, 2016 11:33am
18:33 Note the "b" shape for preUS+pitUS profiles combined. For now it is liquidation.
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  • #1,411
  • Edited 12:23pm Oct 27, 2016 12:08pm | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting MohammadEC
{quote} Hello Lock I really wanna know how can we say that the price is retracing from this level using ur strategy?
I wrote that it is very normal to find buyers below this sort of references. Generally those who buy there are day timeframe traders plus slightly bigger timeframes*. The same sort of traders who sold after the TAG of B period low during E period. (that btw price is tagging right now)
But it is not a strategy it's only about odds. We were going down from weak references, in a liquidation of the day before. When the day before has been retraced it is very normal to stop the action, because the purpose of that action is already acheived. Best L.

*note in fact that because it was not a particularly good low (because it was automatic weak buyers as said) the following G period went down again to remove that weakness.
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  • #1,412
  • Edited 12:25pm Oct 27, 2016 12:14pm | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting Lock
18:33 Note the "b" shape for preUS+pitUS profiles combined. For now it is liquidation.
Now having said all this, let me make some clarifications here. A liquidation is old business. It is the consequence of a previous action gone to far upside, creating inventories too long. But the fact that an action is a liquidation does not mean it has not to last. You can have 1, 2 or 3 days of liquidation in a row sometimes. Also you can have an action that starts as liquidation and than morphs in something new, more stronger. In fact one of the most difficult thing for a trader is to be able to identify a liquidation, or a short covering at the opposite, without falling in the conviction that it's a new strong action in that particular direction. Or, at the contrary, think at a move as liquidation and instead find after a while that it was something more.
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  • #1,413
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:20pm Oct 27, 2016 12:20pm
19:20 In any case, it's now very late for me and I'm very tired. So I'm off. Note that the last attempt downside made by G period stopped 1 pip above the minus development of 10.25 pit session (2136-21473).
Have a nice continuation. Best L.
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  • #1,414
  • Edited 1:53am Oct 28, 2016 1:22am | Edited 1:53am
16/10/28 Friday 08:22+1GMT (edited untill 08:53, adding chart and refs)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

A commentary about yesterday.

Yesterday GB session removed the cluster of old GB poor highs at 2248 level and a poor high left by 10.20-21 Sydney/Tokyo session at 22588. While doing this it left below 4 anomalies. At the end of the GB session K period managed to correct only the first one upside.

Pre US opened just above the day before pit session unchanged at 22448, made some test up and down above the day before pit session high at 22484 and eventually start to liquidate the GB session.

It was clearly a liquidation, as written during its developing, because the sharp very elongated price action of the preUS periods and the references it used to pause or re start its run were always exact references.

At 15:30 pit session opened inside the day before range and I wrote about the fact that the last session was a balance one: so the attempted test below the day before session was in affect an attempted breakout from balance.

During this attempted break out downside I warned about the fact that also the current pit session was using exact references to act downside: to pause action and to restart it. With this I insist over the fact that we were watching short covering. Menaning that we were watching old business and not new money selling.

The purpose of this warning? If you are in a liquidation environment, made by weak partecipants, and if you know that, you also know what their purpose could possibly be. A liquidation is aimed to correct inventories went to long in the previous action. So when the previous action will be corrected the game will be over.

And this is exactly what happened: when the day before, started at Tokyo low 21558, has been totally retraced I suggest a possible automatic retracement right below that level. And I wrote this just because of the logical implication of a game that had no reason to continue at that moment in time having already acheived its purpose. I was not sure at all the move had stopped defintely, but the odds suggest me to take this possibility in serious consideration.

But I also added that that reaction downside was automatic, then weak, and in fact price took over again the initial low and eventually the session ended with a full balance just above that new low.

About today.

Current Tokyo session is building an important gap downside for upcoming GB session so if this gap will still be at GB open we could follow its direction downside unless it will be retraced quickly.
A gap is a form of excess and it underlines that something happened in a market. Only if rejected quickly we could think that this particular change in the mind of the partecipants has been rejected by new partecipants.
I repeat here that yesterday was a liquidation, during preUS and pit session. If you see the preUS+pit US profile combined you could infact see a perfect "b" shape just to confirm it was effectively a liquidation.
So it is old business versus new money selling. And for this reason it is weaker than other possible actions.
But let's for a while think at the mental situation of those who bought during GB session, and now they will see the new open exactly at the opposite side of their previous attempt upside. This could lead them to liquidate all their left long positions incrementing the current downside activity. (It's only a possibility obviously)

Note that, as written, yesterday pit action stopped exactly 1 single pip above the previous minus development at 2136-21473. So clearly not a particular good low.

If we will have a continuation downside, do not forget that we left above a substantial number of bad weaknesses both of Tokyo, GB and US sessions*. So carry this information forward because if new money stronger buyers will step in we could eventually see a substantial correction upside in order to take out those weak refs.

Thake this info in particular consideration if you will see a fast correction of the possible GB gap downside.

Important references for today:

  1. 21353 1st weekly balance low
  2. 20883 2nd weekly balance low
  3. 22066 half back of the entire move downside from 10.19 GB session (high at 22317, low at 20816)
  4. 2221 main composite poc

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*This is a list of them:

  1. Today Tokyo periods M and N tagging Tokyo open at 21684.
  2. Today Tokyo period L at previous half back 2176.
  3. Today Tokyo poor high at 21887.
  4. Pit periods E and H tagging the early morning low at 21804.
  5. Pit period C tagging 2200 round number.
  6. Pit period B tagging 10.26 preUS open plus the initial half back of the pit session at 22143.
  7. Pit 10.20 poor high at 2274,
  8. GB 10.20 poor high at 2285,
  9. Tokyo 10.20 poor high at 2298 and finally
  10. Pit 10.19 poor high at 2322

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  • #1,415
  • Oct 28, 2016 3:08am Oct 28, 2016 3:08am
10:08+1GMT
For now we only saw a short covering against the weak Tokyo action downside. Poor Tokyo high still in place, but the GB gap downside for now is protecting it. Very weak and grinding action anyway. As you saw for now GB managed only to take out:

  1. Today Tokyo periods M and N tagging Tokyo open at 21684.
  2. Today Tokyo period L at previous half back 2176.

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  • #1,416
  • Oct 28, 2016 3:21am Oct 28, 2016 3:21am
10:21 Note price coming back exactly at open price 21646: weak hands controlling this market for now.
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  • #1,417
  • Oct 28, 2016 3:33am Oct 28, 2016 3:33am
10:33 Total lack of partecipation of bigger timeframes. Extraordinary weak market. Gap downside still in place. Current high is anyway weak because it is tagging the Tokyo poor high, as period C low is very weak as it tagged today GB open.
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  • #1,418
  • Oct 28, 2016 3:35am Oct 28, 2016 3:35am
10:35 D period high at half back 21755.
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  • #1,419
  • Oct 28, 2016 3:54am Oct 28, 2016 3:54am
10:54 Double tag at open by C and D periods. Note that D is inside C: possible break from here.
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  • #1,420
  • Oct 28, 2016 4:03am Oct 28, 2016 4:03am
11:03 Please note that 21598 is the lowest GB low for October as 21632 is the lowest Tokyo* low for the same month: so, to stay or not below these levels it is very significant for current session.

*note also that today Tokyo close at GB D period close is at 2165, just a couple of pips above its lowest low for October. Not a great sign of conviction downside for Tokyo.
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