Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,442
- Oct 28, 2016 7:03am Oct 28, 2016 7:03am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,443
- Oct 28, 2016 7:05am Oct 28, 2016 7:05am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,444
- Oct 28, 2016 7:12am Oct 28, 2016 7:12am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,445
- Oct 28, 2016 7:18am Oct 28, 2016 7:18am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,446
- Oct 28, 2016 7:27am Oct 28, 2016 7:27am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
16:27+1GMT
The current situation in a chart.
The current situation in a chart.
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,447
- Oct 28, 2016 7:55am Oct 28, 2016 7:55am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,448
- Oct 28, 2016 7:58am Oct 28, 2016 7:58am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,449
- Oct 28, 2016 8:13am Oct 28, 2016 8:13am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,450
- Oct 28, 2016 8:19am Oct 28, 2016 8:19am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,451
- Edited 12:59pm Oct 29, 2016 12:45pm | Edited 12:59pm
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
16/10/29 9:58 +1GMT
A commentary about Friday 10.28.
Yesterday at 16:27+1GMT during the final phase of the second period "B" of the pit session I posted a chart showing the current situation. In this image I underlined the weakness of the situation putting in evidence the cluster of highs made by the last Tokyo and GB sessions and eventually even by the "early morning" pit session period "A". But at the same time I underlined the fact that the last market action was characterized by continuos corrections of previous inventories becoming alternately too long or too short, meaning with that, that we were only watching old business and not new money one.
After my post, pit action continued to liquidate in a very grinding mode the recent preUS short covering activity that was in turn finalized to correct the previous liquidation made by GB session.
At 16:58, at the end of the third period "C" I underlined the execution of the first test below the yesterday pit session low. And I suggest to take note about the fact that yesterday pit session stopped its action downside just 1 single pip above the minus development at 2136-21473 left by 10.25 Wednsday pit session:
After about 20 minutes I posted this further note:
Eventually afer only 5 minutes I wrote my last post for the day:
At that moment in time considering the overall weaknesses characterizing the current environment above and below, and considering that we were during Friday afternoon, I decided to step aside.
Now after that "E" period balanced inside period "D" and while doing this, it managed to create a poor low just 1 single pip above the first weekly balance low (breakeven of the failed breakout attempt of Wednsday.)
From that balance it broke above and spent the next 3 periods "F", "G" and "H" to cover the inventories too short and to remove the very weak cluster of highs at 2187 zone.
After that correction "I" period made also a test above the 22066 half back of the entire move downside from 10.19 GB session (high at 22317, low at 20816).
Conclusions.
Someone might ask me why, if I saw the very weak cluster of highs at 2187 level, even publishing a chart with the exact description of it, 2 hours before the correction of it, why did not I put a long position when the minus development was eventually filled, and also why did I leave the market at that moment in time.
I think I already partially answered in the initial commentary, speaking about the overall weakness of the current market activity, but let me add here a couple of things: if you want to survive in a market you have to play alongside favorable odds.
If you see an opportunity to take, obviously you have to commit, but if you see that this particular opportunity is not supported by a consistent sequence of factors making the current odds clearly in your favour, you have to find the strength to reject the commitment and step aside.
When I left the market the pit session had a poor low downside tagging exactly a very important reference without having made any test below it (at 21363). Pre US low was weak as it tagged exactly the 10.20 pit session open price, the period "F" that attempted the break from "E" period balance made its low exactly at preUS opening 21466, the following period "G" was very narrow and put its low exactly at round number 2150 that was also the previous session pit low.
Maybe in that monent in time you are going to lose a good profit and after that you might start to regret that missed opportunity: but I think that the main concept to grasp for a professional trader is to remain glued with odds and don't leave them for any reason in the world. If you miss a trade, you miss a trade: so what? The world is not coming to an end and you will have better and clearer opportunities next, if you are able to preserve your financial and psychological capital for them.
The following one is a comparison between the chart I posted yesterday at 16:27+1GMT and a new one after the day was over. Note the introduction of new scripts in order to show the references descriptions on the right, leaving the profiles space more clean. If you want to use them I attached the zips in this post. Best L.
A commentary about Friday 10.28.
Yesterday at 16:27+1GMT during the final phase of the second period "B" of the pit session I posted a chart showing the current situation. In this image I underlined the weakness of the situation putting in evidence the cluster of highs made by the last Tokyo and GB sessions and eventually even by the "early morning" pit session period "A". But at the same time I underlined the fact that the last market action was characterized by continuos corrections of previous inventories becoming alternately too long or too short, meaning with that, that we were only watching old business and not new money one.
16:27+1GMT The current situation in a chart. {image}
At 16:58, at the end of the third period "C" I underlined the execution of the first test below the yesterday pit session low. And I suggest to take note about the fact that yesterday pit session stopped its action downside just 1 single pip above the minus development at 2136-21473 left by 10.25 Wednsday pit session:
{quote} 16:58 ...first test below yesterday pit session low. Note the minus development left downside by yesterday pit session.. {quote}
17:13 C & D poor low. D high again at open. Only trading money. I'm not interested in this environment. It is too weak. As written last week unless stronger partecipants will step in, this pair will be tradable only considering inventories too short or too long, because this is the only possible approach given by the presence of 1 single partecipant in this market. GB was too short > preUS...
{quote} 17:19+1GMT All the minus development left by yesterday pit session totally filled. At the pip. Very weak environment.. I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L. PS: remember that 21352 is the 1st weekly balance low. Pit stopped 1 single pip above it...
Now after that "E" period balanced inside period "D" and while doing this, it managed to create a poor low just 1 single pip above the first weekly balance low (breakeven of the failed breakout attempt of Wednsday.)
From that balance it broke above and spent the next 3 periods "F", "G" and "H" to cover the inventories too short and to remove the very weak cluster of highs at 2187 zone.
After that correction "I" period made also a test above the 22066 half back of the entire move downside from 10.19 GB session (high at 22317, low at 20816).
Conclusions.
Someone might ask me why, if I saw the very weak cluster of highs at 2187 level, even publishing a chart with the exact description of it, 2 hours before the correction of it, why did not I put a long position when the minus development was eventually filled, and also why did I leave the market at that moment in time.
I think I already partially answered in the initial commentary, speaking about the overall weakness of the current market activity, but let me add here a couple of things: if you want to survive in a market you have to play alongside favorable odds.
If you see an opportunity to take, obviously you have to commit, but if you see that this particular opportunity is not supported by a consistent sequence of factors making the current odds clearly in your favour, you have to find the strength to reject the commitment and step aside.
When I left the market the pit session had a poor low downside tagging exactly a very important reference without having made any test below it (at 21363). Pre US low was weak as it tagged exactly the 10.20 pit session open price, the period "F" that attempted the break from "E" period balance made its low exactly at preUS opening 21466, the following period "G" was very narrow and put its low exactly at round number 2150 that was also the previous session pit low.
Maybe in that monent in time you are going to lose a good profit and after that you might start to regret that missed opportunity: but I think that the main concept to grasp for a professional trader is to remain glued with odds and don't leave them for any reason in the world. If you miss a trade, you miss a trade: so what? The world is not coming to an end and you will have better and clearer opportunities next, if you are able to preserve your financial and psychological capital for them.
The following one is a comparison between the chart I posted yesterday at 16:27+1GMT and a new one after the day was over. Note the introduction of new scripts in order to show the references descriptions on the right, leaving the profiles space more clean. If you want to use them I attached the zips in this post. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,452
- Oct 29, 2016 1:23pm Oct 29, 2016 1:23pm
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
Hunting High and Low
- #1,453
- Oct 29, 2016 2:00pm Oct 29, 2016 2:00pm
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,454
- Edited 4:32am Oct 30, 2016 4:19am | Edited 4:32am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,455
- Oct 31, 2016 1:04pm Oct 31, 2016 1:04pm
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
21:03 +1GMT
Current immediate solution to visualize the 2 DST settings: 
Current immediate solution to visualize the 2 DST settings:
- load on 2 different m30 charts the same template.
- set the TPO tools with different DST settings and different update parameter: a very slow one for the old DST TPO tool (as 40000 for example) and a faster one for the new current DST tool (as 10 for instance).
- remove from the old DST setting chart the tool for references's texts update, leaving it on the new DST one.
- set in mt4 chart properties "fixed scale" and set them with identical parameters.
It's only a pratical solution and we could dismiss it when we will eventually have a tool with automatic DST switch.
In the attached example you have 2 charts where on the left you have the old DST settings and on the right one the new DST.
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,456
- Edited 11:53pm Oct 31, 2016 11:42pm | Edited 11:53pm
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
07:42+1GMT
An important note about current main TPO tool.
For those who have to set Sydney session with a time less than 00:00 (for example: those who have servers in GMT+1 where current Sydney session starts at 22:00) please use the modified settings as described. It's a practical temporary solution to solve an issue of the tool in this particular situations. You will note that in this set I switched the sessions of 1 position both in time and color settings: AsiaOpen became SydneyOpen, EuropeOpen became AsiaOpen and so on. See the image and pm me if you need more clarifications. Best L.
PS: I also noted an error in the Pit session poor low script. Use the new one attached here.
An important note about current main TPO tool.
For those who have to set Sydney session with a time less than 00:00 (for example: those who have servers in GMT+1 where current Sydney session starts at 22:00) please use the modified settings as described. It's a practical temporary solution to solve an issue of the tool in this particular situations. You will note that in this set I switched the sessions of 1 position both in time and color settings: AsiaOpen became SydneyOpen, EuropeOpen became AsiaOpen and so on. See the image and pm me if you need more clarifications. Best L.
PS: I also noted an error in the Pit session poor low script. Use the new one attached here.
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,457
- Edited 1:00am Nov 1, 2016 12:30am | Edited 1:00am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
16/11/01 TUESDAY 08:30 +1GMT (edited untill 09:00:35)
EARLY MORNING REPORT
A top down perspective.
Weekly.
Even tough in the weekly timeframe we are still in a one timeframing downside mode, as written, we could consider the current situation as a balance one. Last week attempted a breakout downside below the 2 week balance and failed. Now the natural target should be the opposite side of the balance, meaning the top of the 10.09 week at 24437. Other important references are 23317 the top of the 10.16 week and 22714 the top of the last week.
Daily.
The daily situation reflects the current one for weekly timeframe: we are in a balance lasting for 16 days. But note that while in the initial portion of the balance we got at least mini trend for 3 days in the last six days we never have a day in the same direction of the previous one. We only saw inventories correction from too long to too short and viceversa. This means clearly a total lack of conviction in any direction and a supstantial absence of bigger timeframes from current market activity.
Sessions.
See chart.
EARLY MORNING REPORT
A top down perspective.
Weekly.
Even tough in the weekly timeframe we are still in a one timeframing downside mode, as written, we could consider the current situation as a balance one. Last week attempted a breakout downside below the 2 week balance and failed. Now the natural target should be the opposite side of the balance, meaning the top of the 10.09 week at 24437. Other important references are 23317 the top of the 10.16 week and 22714 the top of the last week.
Daily.
The daily situation reflects the current one for weekly timeframe: we are in a balance lasting for 16 days. But note that while in the initial portion of the balance we got at least mini trend for 3 days in the last six days we never have a day in the same direction of the previous one. We only saw inventories correction from too long to too short and viceversa. This means clearly a total lack of conviction in any direction and a supstantial absence of bigger timeframes from current market activity.
Sessions.
See chart.
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,458
- Nov 1, 2016 1:11am Nov 1, 2016 1:11am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,459
- Nov 1, 2016 1:18am Nov 1, 2016 1:18am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat
- #1,460
- Nov 1, 2016 1:28am Nov 1, 2016 1:28am
- Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,327 Posts
Ubi maior minor cessat