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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #62,361
  • Edited 9:20am Oct 25, 2016 8:58am | Edited 9:20am
here's a lesson, I made a plan, but rather than follow it, I took what looked like an extreme with a bounce, which I never really have any success doing, so my novicey eager entry issue/old habit took over and I broke my plan and lost then repeated it, lost. (i switched over to what I do better, ucad and made it up)
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #62,362
  • Oct 25, 2016 9:33am Oct 25, 2016 9:33am
Quoting corrman
here's a lesson, I made a plan, but rather than follow it, I took what looked like an extreme with a bounce, which I never really have any success doing, so my novicey eager entry issue/old habit took over and I broke my plan and lost then repeated it, lost. (i switched over to what I do better, ucad and made it up)
Unlucky corrman, hopefully you didn't lose much & have learnt something. When you have that urge to just jump in may I remind you to refer to your own 'signature statement'
who dares wins
  • #62,363
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:38pm Oct 25, 2016 1:38pm
Quoting catroot
{quote} Can you tell us where is the ground for this rain? Any reason for price to have an early drop is outside of my scope. Drop because the end of triangle? How much pips down? 20 or 30? Next week the price will take a walk on todays resistances like it on a clean square.


At the time of my comment price at the 0.61 retracement level, however, broke thru to the 0.886 retracement level down to to current 0.38 level (close to price104.248). However, in certain situations, an 0.886 retracement can be a powerful level of support or resistance when combined with a 1.618 projection. It is critical to understand the nature of this Fibonacci level as more than just another retracement on the chart.. I will leave that up to you to further investigate
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We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #62,364
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:43pm Oct 25, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting Hebelitt
Maybe there is a new long entry at 103.73 ... {image}
Nice chart
 
I'd wait 103.30. Seems support. 
 
Where are all bears with 0.95 and 0.67 targets??
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #62,365
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:10pm Oct 25, 2016 4:10pm
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  • #62,366
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:05pm Oct 25, 2016 6:05pm
Possible ending diagonal in the making.
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  • #62,367
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:14pm Oct 25, 2016 6:14pm
here's the upside bounce i was looking for 12 hours ago, it's so easy to be too early...
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #62,368
  • Edited 11:24pm Oct 25, 2016 11:12pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting catroot
{quote} I`m sorry, this is your deals, but it seems that you are working hard on eliminating your depo. If not - try to take short from 106.76 to the 105.3 then long up to 107.2 then short again. Work hard to avoid joining on the mess and don`t provide sl to the stream. You are working with a big lots with tight sl inside the mess. This is a selfkiller tactic. And does not even look to enter to the mess. Only a key levels matters.
i started experimenting with different kinds of trend lines and trading systems so blundered, its nothing new for me lol

anyways dweb was right on when he said the triangle means it will fall like a rock, i should have paid heed to dweb, my fault

anyways new day, and back to my original winning system i have been using since 2003, it will recover the entire mess in a jiffy
  • #62,369
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:46pm Oct 25, 2016 11:46pm
Quoting Jfrancis
Possible ending diagonal in the making.
What you drew is rather a continuation pattern than reversal. Price doesn't reverse after making a HH.
  • #62,370
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:52pm Oct 25, 2016 11:52pm
Quoting mades
{quote} What you drew is rather a continuation pattern than reversal. Price doesn't reverse after making a HH.
price often turns after making a HH..
  • #62,371
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:54pm Oct 25, 2016 11:54pm
If this doesn't break 105 it's history down to 100
  • #62,372
  • Edited Oct 26, 2016 12:09am Oct 25, 2016 11:57pm | Edited Oct 26, 2016 12:09am
Quoting Pip-Miner
If this doesn't break 105 it's history down to 100
don't worry i closed my short and it bounced right after the close

see below
  • #62,373
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:05am Oct 26, 2016 12:05am
m30 wedge seen, this can bounce anytime 104.365 first ONLY IF 104.08 holds

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  • #62,374
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:17am Oct 26, 2016 12:17am
uj still have short
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That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #62,375
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:26am Oct 26, 2016 12:26am
Quoting Don96
{quote} price often turns after making a HH..
Can you show me an example on 1D+ where price hit the extreme and reversed immediately without trying again? One of the most recognizable patterns (H&S) is based on having a LH/HL before massive reversal.

If you take a look at COT report, there has been a shift in JPY for a few weeks already, Longs have been reduced from 57k to 37k and they add new shorts every week now. I would be careful with sub 100 calls for now.
  • #62,376
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:32am Oct 26, 2016 12:32am
Quoting mades
{quote} Can you show me an example on 1D+ where price hit the extreme and reversed immediately without trying again? One of the most recognizable patterns (H&S) is based on having a LH/HL before massive reversal. If you take a look at COT report, there has been a shift in JPY for a few weeks already, Longs have been reduced from 57k to 37k and they add new shorts every week now. I would be careful with sub 100 calls for now.
sub 100 is possible...

here are all the HH and retrace, LL retrace... fairly basic
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  • #62,377
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:41am Oct 26, 2016 12:41am
Quoting Don96
{quote} sub 100 is possible... here are all the HH and retrace, LL retrace... fairly basic {image}
A class 1 H&S there. That is completely different from the image guy posted.
  • #62,378
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:43am Oct 26, 2016 12:43am
Quoting mades
{quote} A class 1 H&S there. That is completely different from the image guy posted.
i dont know who are what guy posted... as for H and S yeah sometimes they work sometimes they dont... now as for UJ... its still failed a main HH... its made LH and HL... wedge forming, breakout or BOJ soon... US elections, who knows, i dont, daily is bearish after that candle, we could easly see 101 again
  • #62,379
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:00am Oct 26, 2016 1:00am
Quoting Don96
{quote} i dont know who are what guy posted... as for H and S yeah sometimes they work sometimes they dont... now as for UJ... its still failed a main HH... its made LH and HL... wedge forming, breakout or BOJ soon... US elections, who knows, i dont, daily is bearish after that candle, we could easly see 101 again
Why don't you then take a look all you need to do is scroll up.

And regarding UJ .. we have different opinions. Some internal currency reports from banks see UJ in 106-108 range in the next 3-6 months period. Those are not public reports. I wouldn't discard COT. COT precisely predicted the UJ reversal in the beginning of the year. Massive shifts to longs happened before the price actually dropped in February.

H&S is famous because it rarely fails (on high TF). Anything is possible, like UJ at 95, but this is a game of probabilities. We have a pinbar on daily from yesterday which would suggest a bit bearish action in the following days but need a drop below 103.50 to revisit your 101.
  • #62,380
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:23am Oct 26, 2016 1:23am
Note, that the price didn`t even touch a pip above 104.9 and smoothly comes to the h4 support.
I expected to see a powerfull bull head, but the market shows only a fat bear ass.
Who have a tickets to the 106-107 level give them back. Race canceled.
I will short the next dip.
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
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