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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,341
  • Oct 21, 2016 11:40am Oct 21, 2016 11:40am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Sigh. I think I'm not establishing my point effectively. What I'm illustrating has nothing to do with winning or losing iterations or mapping a trade. The economic ramifications of brexit on imports/exports, the economic ramifications of the presidential election on the world, the coorelation between forex/equities/bonds vs economic policy...that's what I'm wanting to learn. Anyways, that's enough of the spot light. Let's just forget the subject and let the thread continue. I didn't quite mean to start a debate over it. I do appreciate the...
Yes, NP. IMHO, you are overcomplicating, it is much simpler and really all in those 3 points Sisse pointed out in his last post + the entry triguer with the system each trader is using and is good at. Nothing more.
PVSRA
  • #144,342
  • Edited 1:29pm Oct 21, 2016 11:44am | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} If you think the purpose of these iterations was giving you a trading systemI think you are getting it wrong and you maybe failling to recognise the forest for the trees. You are seeing these posts with guru selling system FF eyes while the point is 180 degrees the opposite: talk trading and markets without the bags of misinformation, myths and BS around The purpoae of all these ia not giving you a recipe but give you 3 or 4 general but powerful notions that can be adapted and implemennted in ANY system you use. I am just forcing you to...
Sisse, pls, as I was out of the game for a while. can u update me ur short/mid/long term US equities outlook (plus maybe the week from which the status comes)? As a result I will post my short/mid/long term updated charts on that. Not that you need them but just to share and discuss maybe.

As far as I think/know/remember:

US500: ST: neutral, MT: neutral, LT: neutral ??

and maybe just to back-check:

DAX - ST: soft sell, MT: strong sell, LT: strong sell
FTSE - ST: neutral, MT: strong sell, LT: strong sell

P.S.: Im not lazy to dig into history but its pain to find just there 3 informations. Would take me hours
  • #144,343
  • Oct 21, 2016 12:56pm Oct 21, 2016 12:56pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, pls, as I was out of the game for a while. can u update me ur short/mid/long term US equities outlook (plus maybe the week from which the status comes)? As a result I will post my short/mid/long term updated charts on that. Not that you need them but just to share and discuss maybe. As far as I think/know/remember: US500: ST: sell, MT: neutral, LT: neutral ?? and maybe just to back-check: DAX - ST: soft sell, MT: strong sell, LT: strong sell FTSE - ST: neutral, MT: strong sell, LT: strong sell P.S.: Im not lazy to dig into history...
I posted the attached updated file on Sisse Outlooks.
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx OUTLOOK_UPDATES.DOCX   30 KB | 320 downloads
  • #144,344
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:03pm Oct 21, 2016 1:03pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I posted the attached updated file on Sisse Outlooks.{file}
hmm, nice post, I see, but still would be good if he reviewed the equities because I think mine nor yours is actually all the way right I maybe be wrong of course

I can recall some of his post saying something about hasitating to switch to mid term sell on equities. And I think he did not. It was not so long time ago. So Im confused on the recent status of his.
  • #144,345
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:10pm Oct 21, 2016 1:10pm
Quoting sisse
US equities held a first serious attempt to break down with markets entering in RMT and risk on the background via UK. However, they are showing some serious weakness. Not only setting the high of this year is around the corner but also a mid term high (may not even see higher till late 2017/early 2018 if confirmed) is in play for this Q. I am shy by an inch or two to change mid term outlook in US equities (need a a final trigger news to be 100% convinced) but more importantly for today close: --> Changing short term outlook in US equities from...
This one I think.
  • #144,346
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:24pm Oct 21, 2016 1:24pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fol...of2&yptr=yahoo

"credit anticipates, equity confirms"....I think the stage is set for an upside breakout for US equities, from Election Day to the eve of the Dec FOMC. Lots of wild cards though, most of which I'm sure you can name.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,347
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:29pm Oct 21, 2016 1:29pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} This one I think.
you got it, exactly the one I was refering to. So would be great if sisse could confirm if I have it right. I mean we can discuss the reasons why it is the way it i0 - tjats why we are here. But this time I just want to get in sync
  • #144,348
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:48pm Oct 21, 2016 1:48pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fol...of2&yptr=yahoo "credit anticipates, equity confirms"....I think the stage is set for an upside breakout for US equities, from Election Day to the eve of the Dec FOMC. Lots of wild cards though, most of which I'm sure you can name.
I was looking at it this way too. I dont trade options (yet) as my head tends to swim with all the variables and I just dont have the experience to figure out which trigger to pull. My plan is small bets short vix and leveraged index etfs to catch some of the shortlived Santa rally post election. Then long leveraged vix just before FED but not to hold for long as decay is a big issue with instruments such as uvxy and the like.
  • #144,349
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:11pm Oct 21, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I was looking at it this way too. I dont trade options (yet) as my head tends to swim with all the variables and I just dont have the experience to figure out which trigger to pull. My plan is small bets short vix and leveraged index etfs to catch some of the shortlived Santa rally post election. Then long leveraged vix just before FED but not to hold for long as decay is a big issue with instruments such as uvxy and the like.
I'd have to look at your actual trades to know what you're talking about. If you mean you are short shares of UVXY or VXX, I have heard there are very few shares available to short, or none. If you could get them, shorting those shares off a big ^vix spike would be the way to go (if you are well-capped.) Playing that reversion with long puts in those names is tricky, because the iv crush will quickly drain the value out of the options you bought even as they go in the money. I sometimes set up put flys or vertical put spreads to try to make something on ^vix falling back, but in general I have discovered short ^vix is a hard trade and I just try to catch ^vix spikes on specific events with a variety of spreads. This usually loses money, also, but when it does do well it can return bookoo.

I don't always have time to trade on the weeklies but I often use the SPX calls to catch a rising market when I think that is the deal, and I will hedge those trades with very cheap UVXY, VXX, or VIX (in that order) call spreads. The problem with long ^vix trades is that you will lose money on those even when the market is moving down, because it will only move the ^VIX up significantly if it moving down hard.

A market that never moves is just not worth trading, imho. You can sell iron condors in the indices in those times, but when the iv's have cratered you don't get enough credit to justify the risk you are taking. It's always said "the best trade is often no trade" but it's just hard to swallow that when the "no trade" conditions drag on for months....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,350
  • Edited 2:58pm Oct 21, 2016 2:45pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd have to look at your actual trades to know what you're talking about. If you mean you are short shares of UVXY or VXX, I have heard there are very few shares available to short, or none. If you could get them, shorting those shares off a big ^vix spike would be the way to go (if you are well-capped.) Playing that reversion with long puts in those names is tricky, because the iv crush will quickly drain the value out of the options you bought even as they go in the money. I sometimes set up put flys or vertical put spreads to try to make...
Thanks. Yeah I guess for that part of it I was thinking long XIV, SVIXY, names like that. I haven't watched them for long and not sure if they would do what I think they would in a stock rally. I'll need to look deeper into them before I decide whether they aren't just like many/most of the etfs of this type (i.e. designed perfectly for suckers like me). In the end if I get a chance to trade any of what I'm talking about here it will be with instruments I'm familiar enough with since I've the learned the best tool for any job is the one you know how to use.

You have a pretty great thread going btw. I check it out all the time but i"ll need to learn the language and strategies better before I can keep up with the ideas you guys discuss in there.
  • #144,351
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:05pm Oct 21, 2016 3:05pm
Perhaps futures is a better option than options
  • #144,352
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:19pm Oct 21, 2016 3:19pm
Simple day and week. Surprise Surprise rolling around 1.088x.? Not really. Easy part of the move gone in the Euro with the never ending 1.097x as only level in play for the M roll to mark the end of the year 2016 in Euro ....

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
....I am not most, and what/where I believe I get the most help from.
I'm not taking you wrong. I am only saying to keep the discussion in the iterations on the principles and not trying to make a one topic takes all discussion.

You won't find easy answers in economics book because they are not written for trading. We have extensive and in depth FA talks here in all levels.

Raise a topic, idea, bias, question, doubt, opinion or anything FA. Don't be shy if you are 'right' or 'wrong' or if you think you are going to make a fool of yourself becuase you are not an Economist or using fancy technalities ....who cares.

You will only 'learn' the FA part by reading reading reading, talking, challenging yourself to understand the macro flows and all that in luve trading environments even if you are not necessarily trading them directly.

Raise your voice with FA comments ir questions if you are in doubt but don't try to find those answers in iterations that are not related to market and macroeconomics as you wont find any answers there...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,353
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:26pm Oct 21, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting sisse
Simple day and week. Surprise Surprise rolling around 1.088x.? Not really. Easy part of the move gone in the Euro with the never ending 1.097x as only level in play for the M roll to mark the end of the year 2016 in Euro .... sisse
Quoting hoom
I have a question about Rate pricing in . In the case of FED ...as for today , fed fund futures implied probability is around 68% for a Dec hike according to CME group FED watchtool . At what percentage could we consider it as almost [fully] priced in ? another exemple is RBNZ , November rate cut probability was almost at 85% when NZD [kiwi] started to retrace after presumingly fully priced in . What are your thoughts ?
Would you like to clear some thoughts about the pricing in process in translation to the market move related to the % of implied probability over time ? thanks
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,354
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:47pm Oct 21, 2016 3:47pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} {quote} Would you like to clear some thoughts about the pricing in process in translation to the market move related to the % of implied probability over time ? thanks
We have over a dozen questions open in the thread and this one is one i have highlighted.

Wont go in details right now but will do it later. We discussed a few weeks ago i thing with Fool about hike nov/dec expectations.....

In a nutshell, We (markets) trade expectations not facts. The early you realise the cheaper the ticket....Yellen gave tbe go ahead on August and the sharpest money started translating probabilities in trading decision first via Bonds,

Later with the inline numbers and NFP most jumped in and Dollar and Gold felt the impact. Minutes put the nail in the coffin.

We jumped from.22℅ odds to 74℅ at the peak last week. For the current rates play ( is not always thr same statistical proportion) I would say is more ot less the same ℅ already digested in Dollar as for today.

The closer we get to hikes and the higer the implied probability the stronger the impact will shift to Equities (the last domino in RMT). instead of Dollar. For now i would say Equities hasn't digest more than 25℅ of the impact of hikes yet.

Why? Because of election uncertainty first and second BOE, ECB and to lesser extend BOJ bazookas are in play for Nov and Dec....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,355
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:06pm Oct 21, 2016 4:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} We have over a dozen questions open in the thread and this one is one i have highlighted. Wont go in details right now but will do it later. We discussed a few weeks ago i thing with Fool about hike nov/dec expectations..... In a nutshell, We (markets) trade expectations not facts. The early you realise the cheaper the ticket....Yellen gave tbe go ahead on August and the sharpest money started translating probabilities in trading decision first via Bonds, Later with the inline numbers and NFP most jumped in and Dollar and Gold felt the impact....
Good , another trader opinion especially from you is more than appreciated to confirm some of my thoughts . I hope we clear all the open discussions in details. Take your time mate and thanks again . have a nice weekend all .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,356
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:38pm Oct 21, 2016 4:38pm
10-4, thank you sisse
  • #144,357
  • Edited Oct 22, 2016 12:03am Oct 21, 2016 6:42pm | Edited Oct 22, 2016 12:03am
Quoting sisse
The closer we get to hikes and the higher the implied probability the stronger the impact will shift to Equities (the last domino in RMT). instead of Dollar. For now i would say Equities hasn't digest more than 25℅ of the impact of hikes yet. Why? Because of election uncertainty first and second BOE, ECB and to lesser extend BOJ bazookas are in play for Nov and Dec.... sisse
there is no guarantee that equities will do one thing or another based wholly on a dead certain 25 bps ffr hike. Last December, US stocks rallied for a week after the rate hike and then we had a 8-9% "correction" (lol) in the first 6 weeks of the new Year. If we were in for an aggressive normalization regimen of 1-2% rates rise per year, then things might be different, but nobody expects that out of the Yellen Fed. US stocks have been flatlining for 2+ years and are due for a solid breakout. I think we will get that rally in the weeks following the elections. That is if Pharm0r doesn't start an armed insurrection. If he does, I have trades set up for that, too....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,358
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:45pm Oct 21, 2016 9:45pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Perhaps futures is a better option than options
re: /VX, VIX futures combined with VIX options, sure, maybe, I just can't trade /vx futures in my IRA accounts, so I have never gone there.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,359
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:57pm Oct 21, 2016 9:57pm
Quoting goosebone
I was thinking long XIV, SVIXY, names like that......... You have a pretty great thread going btw. I check it out all the time but i"ll need to learn the language and strategies better before I can keep up with the ideas you guys discuss in there.
well, thanks. re: XIV, it's a pretty safe trade if you buy a deep deep dip, although sometimes the wait is longer than others. In the current era of CB control of the markets, any fast ^VIX spike is likely to be squelched pretty quick. No options on XIV, though. I would borrow money to buy shares on another dip to $15....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-21_1951xiv.png Size: 55 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,360
  • Oct 21, 2016 11:29pm Oct 21, 2016 11:29pm
Quoting The Fool
I think the stage is set for an upside breakout for US equities, from Election Day to the eve of the Dec FOMC. Lots of wild cards though, most of which I'm sure you can name.
N225 is already on the move, and has finally broken above the super-sticky 17000 level (I mean meaningful closes above, not just one-day spikes) for the first time since April. There are rumours that the Saudis are involved with their new $100 billion fund. And if Clinton wins the election I can imagine a huge victory rally due to her stance on US-Japan relations among other things (dread to think what would happen if Trump wins).

So I agree that a rally in world equities is pretty likely until the December Fed... unforeseen risk events notwithstanding.
You reap what you sow.
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