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  • #144,321
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:33am Oct 21, 2016 1:33am
Thanks for keeping track Sisse.
  • #144,322
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:57am Oct 21, 2016 1:57am
i dont have much to say but yes i will hold my shorts for some more time as my personal targets are not hit yet ....

and officially we are out of the brexit chop zone & entered in no man's land .... now lets see how it pans out .....

but this chop zone just tested my nerve system in every possible way ....

waiting for more iteration if @Sisse starts a new campaign....

and thankx a lot sisse ..... for everything you did for all of us .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,323
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:09am Oct 21, 2016 2:09am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Sisse, great sell signal last month...still prolly one of the best long term indicators out there...the previous signal was a loss, but this one has a nice edge already {image}

however in all honesty, the system is BE right now for the last two year chop....still not bad, and naturally the win from mid 2014 was pretty damn large...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,324
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:09am Oct 21, 2016 2:09am
I have a question about Rate pricing in .

In the case of FED ...as for today , fed fund futures implied probability is around 68% for a Dec hike according to CME group FED watchtool .

At what percentage could we consider it as almost [fully] priced in ?

another exemple is RBNZ , November rate cut probability was almost at 85% when NZD [kiwi] started to retrace after presumingly fully priced in .

What are your thoughts ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,325
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:15am Oct 21, 2016 2:15am
still the only method I'll teach my kid, so's he don't have to sit on FF all the time...sorry about the interruption, but I just happen across these charts after a while....you can thank me later....

have a good weekend...and good luck....

and watch your six...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,326
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:21am Oct 21, 2016 2:21am
Quoting PayTheLimit
still the only method I'll teach my kid, so's he don't have to sit on FF all the time...sorry about the interruption, but I just happen across these charts after a while....you can thank me later.... have a good weekend...and good luck.... and watch your six... {image}
I don't understand what you are trying to point out ! 6 ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,327
  • Oct 21, 2016 5:02am Oct 21, 2016 5:02am
Quoting sisse
For real i will use you both and also @Vorex and @NorhTrader (they should be out too but i won't bend the rules) when we wrap up this iteration becauae in this wrong last call there is a lot ofkey points that will answer lota of the pending questions both FA and TA but especially on proper trading and risk management. sisse
Yeah, short would have been better! Feel free to use and abuse me mate. I reality I've been mostly flat on EUR/USD, but I did go long before ECB on the chance of tapering talk, and bagged 40 pips when I realised he wasn't going to be pushed into talking about it. Should have reversed at that point and gone short, but didn't.

Anyway, well done all the shorts, and please take me out of the iteration because I did say I would have chosen the long side if I'd been around.

Looking forward to your wrap up, especially some hints about the roll play if possible. Thanks and have a good weekend.
You reap what you sow.
  • #144,328
  • Oct 21, 2016 5:47am Oct 21, 2016 5:47am
Just keep adding sell until one loses- then look at going the other way? Simplistic view, but essentially what the short iterations are doing ....sounds so obvious when typed out
  • #144,329
  • Oct 21, 2016 5:50am Oct 21, 2016 5:50am
Quoting Pharm0r
Just keep adding sell until one loses- then look at going the other way? Simplistic view, but essentially what the short iterations are doing ....sounds so obvious when typed out
But based on outlook right? FA outlook. Like if that changed to buy (rather than waiting till one short loses) or neutral, then look at going the other way.
  • #144,330
  • Oct 21, 2016 5:56am Oct 21, 2016 5:56am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} But based on outlook right? FA outlook. Like if that changed to buy (rather than waiting till one short loses) or neutral, then look at going the other way.
correct, thats what I was assuming....the problem (for me at least) is nailing down outlook- I guess the question is at what point would EU actually be a buy? I think it was Neutral last time we were down here and Sisse and I went head to head over 1.247x (you may recall I was a "perma bull")...even still- neutral while EU climbs +800 pips seems more like a buy would have been appropriate.

Then again selling or buying from extreme to middle in neutral would still cover your ass in that scenario
  • #144,331
  • Oct 21, 2016 6:07am Oct 21, 2016 6:07am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} correct, thats what I was assuming....the problem (for me at least) is nailing down outlook- I guess the question is at what point would EU actually be a buy? I think it was Neutral last time we were down here and Sisse and I went head to head over 1.247x (you may recall I was a "perma bull")...even still- neutral while EU climbs +800 pips seems more like a buy would have been appropriate. Then again selling or buying from extreme to middle in neutral would still cover your ass in that scenario
Does it matter FA wise !!! you mofuers pick trades on your levels ...so be it , you know your r:r , buy or sell as far as is not random , you should be playing the more

probability you see...you question youselves after the fact won't help .

Confusion looms around when market is trending whith an empty handed trader , same confusion when it's ranging and one is playing the patience game .

it's a game of probability , play it that way .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,332
  • Oct 21, 2016 6:12am Oct 21, 2016 6:12am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} correct, thats what I was assuming....the problem (for me at least) is nailing down outlook- I guess the question is at what point would EU actually be a buy? I think it was Neutral last time we were down here and Sisse and I went head to head over 1.247x (you may recall I was a "perma bull")...even still- neutral while EU climbs +800 pips seems more like a buy would have been appropriate. Then again selling or buying from extreme to middle in neutral would still cover your ass in that scenario
I remember. I think it's in how the short term leads into the mid term , how you could be trading towards flip in both and covering ground like 800 in one direction when both are neutral. Like Chester's last charts posted. I certainly haven't mastered it since my inner chicken takes over whenever a significant retrace against me takes place. Some people got a devil on their shoulder, I got a damn chicken.
  • #144,333
  • Oct 21, 2016 6:59am Oct 21, 2016 6:59am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Does it matter FA wise !!! you mofuers pick trades on your levels ...so be it , you know your r:r , buy or sell as far as is not random , you should be playing the more probability you see...you question youselves after the fact won't help . Confusion looms around when market is trending whith an empty handed trader , same confusion when it's ranging and one is playing the patience game . it's a game of probability , play it that way .
I don't see as much difference between mofu and what we are doing here as you do I think. Mofu considers the draw to a larger tf norm and how/if it effects the draw to smaller tf norm right? And makes an attempt at understanding which leg (inside of a larger leg, inside of a larger one, etc.) price is moving with currently. This is pretty congruent with the system sisse is teaching us. The differences come in when one using mofu ignores the larger FA influences and feels the levels tell the whole story. But they are not mutually exclusive. Mofu maybe appear to be simply a r:r indicator on its surface but, while I don't believe it's alone enough to achieve consistency for me, I will say it's a whole lot deeper than just that.
  • #144,334
  • Oct 21, 2016 7:24am Oct 21, 2016 7:24am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I don't see as much difference between mofu and what we are doing here as you do I think. Mofu considers the draw to a larger tf norm and how/if it effects the draw to smaller tf norm right? And makes an attempt at understanding which leg (inside of a larger leg, inside of a larger one, etc.) price is moving with currently. This is pretty congruent with the system sisse is teaching us. The differences come in when one using mofu ignores the larger FA influences and feels the levels tell the whole story. But they are not mutually exclusive....
This is the reason I'm here- and to further expand, I prefer to learn what I need to make the FA calls and disappear there-after. Sisse is an absolute fantastic guy- but I'd rather my trading career not be dependent on suckling off sisse's fundamental analysis teet. What I fear the iterations are doing is instilling the thought-process that sisse will be around forever to give you a fundamental outlook, and all you have to do is trade the map based on his outlook, thus creating a bunch of trading zombies. By "you" I mean the thread participants as a whole, not YOU as an individual.

I'm interested in being able to spot fundamental changes in outlook....which by and large makes the iterations pointless for me from a trading & R:R perspective. Where I REALLY get sucked into the conversation is the long "boring fundamental" posts sisse makes every now and then.

So count this as my vote for more "boring fundamental" posts sisse! Lets dig deeper into the "whys" as well!

Here's a good example

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post9178339

Have a good day 'gents!
  • #144,335
  • Oct 21, 2016 7:46am Oct 21, 2016 7:46am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This is the reason I'm here- and to further expand, I prefer to learn what I need to make the FA calls and disappear there-after. Sisse is an absolute fantastic guy- but I'd rather my trading career not be dependent on suckling off sisse's fundamental analysis teet. What I fear the iterations are doing is instilling the thought-process that sisse will be around forever to give you a fundamental outlook, and all you have to do is trade the map based on his outlook, thus creating a bunch of trading zombies. By "you" I mean the thread participants...
Agree and have been of the mind that that's where all of this is leading after getting on the same page with the swing flow via the exercises.
  • #144,336
  • Oct 21, 2016 8:15am Oct 21, 2016 8:15am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This is the reason I'm here- and to further expand, I prefer to learn what I need to make the FA calls ...
If you think the purpose of these iterations was giving you a trading systemI think you are getting it wrong and you maybe failling to recognise the forest for the trees.

You are seeing these posts with guru selling system FF eyes while the point is 180 degrees the opposite: talk trading and markets without the bags of misinformation, myths and BS around

The purpoae of all these ia not giving you a recipe but give you 3 or 4 general but powerful notions that can be adapted and implemennted in ANY system you use.

I am just forcing you to think by yourself in:

1. Manage risk before anything else.
2. Manage timing expectations on the proper scope
3. Have a clear map (your map) before you trade instead of jumping up and down in a machine gun approach

All three points are only for one and the only point i want you to share and discover by yourself : C O N S I S T E N C Y.

You can use a MOFU a worfu or a TOFU or anything you want if you dont have those principles clear and embedded in your trading plan you will never be consistent....

The same apply to the FA you seem to be wanting a recipe and to learn how to fly before you know how to crawl.

Because you are one of the real small traders around i will use the wrap up of iteration 19 to walk ypu through the journey step by step....you may learn a second thing in only a week....

You will still owe mea second beer round but first you will need to drop that FF mentality that what i am talking about is ' teaching' you a premade system. I am not teaching you fck all. I am just giving you very useul tips and hints to use your brain and implement whatever is useul in your trading approach...

We will have a weekend update in a series of post as this is obe giant wrap up to close pretty much all points in the journey that started 4 months ago...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,337
  • Oct 21, 2016 8:31am Oct 21, 2016 8:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote}We will have a weekend update in a series of post as this is obe giant wrap up to close pretty much all points in the journey that started 4 months ago... sisse
looking forward with great interest.

Really appreciate what are you doing and already catched some very good hints but i'm sure i'm still missing some links, hope i can get em this time
  • #144,338
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:06am Oct 21, 2016 9:06am
I am not trying to insinuate that you are selling a system or anything of the sort, and if you were I wouldn't care either way- as I am not against commercial members in the slightest- I'm just against liars and snake oil salesmen (which I don't believe you are).

I believe what I'm looking for maybe better found on an economics board as opposed to a trading board (if such a thing exsists), however; I'll be happy to see iteration 19 through- in the spirit of "never leaving a conversation unfinished". The rest of my reply I'll save for after in case I am indeed missing the forrest for the trees.

Again, was never meant as a stab at you nor your teaching style. Was just a suggestion of what I believe I personally need to acquire in order to take a step forward in my trading knowledge, and a critique on the pieces of your teaching style I like the most, and what/where I believe I get the most help from.
  • #144,339
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:10am Oct 21, 2016 9:10am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This is the reason I'm here- and to further expand, I prefer to learn what I need to make the FA calls and disappear there-after. Sisse is an absolute fantastic guy- but I'd rather my trading career not be dependent on suckling off sisse's fundamental analysis teet. What I fear the iterations are doing is instilling the thought-process that sisse will be around forever to give you a fundamental outlook, and all you have to do is trade the map based on his outlook, thus creating a bunch of trading zombies. By "you" I mean the thread participants...
I agree with Sisse here bro. You might have missinterpreted this excellent basics in trading he is giving us. And if you have that fear or if anybody else thinks this is a system he is wrong.
BTW, I discovered great symbiose with PVSRA. I have made few mistake because I was too lazy to plan with a map last few weeks, but the results are still mindblowing. Now I promissed to myself not to even touch a pair without a map and then after the map that stays weeks on my chart ( trading many forex pairs BTW)- then I go and look for PVSRA clues. Once you get that AHA moment ( not only you-anybody) the trading becomes fun.
PVSRA
  • #144,340
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:28am Oct 21, 2016 9:28am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I agree with Sisse here bro. You might have missinterpreted this excellent basics in trading he is giving us. And if you have that fear or if anybody else thinks this is a system he is wrong. BTW, I discovered great symbiose with PVSRA. I have made few mistake because I was too lazy to plan with a map last few weeks, but the results are still mindblowing. Now I promissed to myself not to even touch a pair without a map and then after the map that stays weeks on my chart ( trading many forex pairs BTW)- then I go and look for PVSRA clues....
Sigh. I think I'm not establishing my point effectively. What I'm illustrating has nothing to do with winning or losing iterations or mapping a trade.

The economic ramifications of brexit on imports/exports, the economic ramifications of the presidential election on the world, the coorelation between forex/equities/bonds vs economic policy...that's what I'm wanting to learn.

Anyways, that's enough of the spot light. Let's just forget the subject and let the thread continue. I didn't quite mean to start a debate over it.

I do appreciate the input from everyone. Like I said- lets just get through the iterations without anymore of my interruptions.
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