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BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

  • #481
  • Oct 21, 2016 12:16pm Oct 21, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting Sniper2000
I have every confidence that this problem is going to be eventually resolved on what the people DID NOT vote for, Rather than what they did. And the realisation that Brexit in reality means Hard Brexit. Absolutely correct . Take out all the personal attacks. It has been very interesting to read everyones points of view on the subject and no doubt will be long after we have gone.
Thats for sure bro.. Best to U & Urs.. Have a good W/E ..
Cliff
  • #482
  • Oct 21, 2016 12:20pm Oct 21, 2016 12:20pm
Show how stupid the EU can be . Belgium (one little area) that houses all the terroists can/is blocking the Trade deal with Canada. Over PIGS.
  • #483
  • Oct 21, 2016 12:56pm Oct 21, 2016 12:56pm
Quoting Sniper2000
Show how stupid the EU can be . Belgium (one little area) that houses all the terroists can/is blocking the Trade deal with Canada. Over PIGS.
STUPID?
Hey I thought that was democracy? Wish u guys would make up your minds..?? Too democratic or undemocratic.. ??
Whats even more fun is that those guys could equally screw any deal on UK exit treaties...
You must be ALREADY on the tinnies..Lol
Cheers
  • #484
  • Edited 4:18pm Oct 21, 2016 1:42pm | Edited 4:18pm
28 nations each with their own outlook the word is
Bureaucracy
excessively complicated administrative procedure

if the votes could have a majority even slightly weighted
then it would be Democratic

how it works = population of 3.5 million V 510 million = no deal ?
or 27-1

Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} STUPID? Hey I thought that was democracy? Wish u guys would make up your minds..?? Too democratic or undemocratic.. ?? Whats even more fun is that those guys could equally screw any deal on UK exit treaties... You must be ALREADY on the tinnies..Lol Cheers
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #485
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:42pm Oct 21, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} STUPID? Hey I thought that was democracy? Wish u guys would make up your minds..?? Too democratic or undemocratic.. ?? Whats even more fun is that those guys could equally screw any deal on UK exit treaties... You must be ALREADY on the tinnies..Lol Cheers
You are correct again . What would happen if some tin pot county in EU doesnt want UK to go. Could they scuttle the exit? Nah not on the tinnies. to early in the morning. Bacon and eggs for breakfast though (Kiwi Bacon with no subsidises ) lol
  • #486
  • Edited 2:53pm Oct 23, 2016 1:44pm | Edited 2:53pm
General FYI:

Jaime Dimon, JP Morgan CEO talking about Brexit
https://youtu.be/AFFNWoJ2LOM?t=14m57s

Was listening to this interview, and Brexit came up.
Need to go to the 15 minute mark to hear about Brexit.
  • #487
  • Oct 23, 2016 2:22pm Oct 23, 2016 2:22pm
Brexit. Its like a guy dealing with 28 wives in a divorce case. No one would win only the Legals. lol
  • #488
  • Oct 23, 2016 2:34pm Oct 23, 2016 2:34pm
very logical outlook as i see it thanks

Quoting verv
General FYI: Jaime Dimon, JP Morgan CEO talking about Brexit https://youtu.be/AFFNWoJ2LOM?t=14m57s Was listening to this interview, and Brexit came up. Need to go to the 15 minute mark
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #489
  • Oct 24, 2016 6:01am Oct 24, 2016 6:01am
Quoting verv
General FYI: Jaime Dimon, JP Morgan CEO talking about Brexit https://youtu.be/AFFNWoJ2LOM?t=14m57s Was listening to this interview, and Brexit came up. Need to go to the 15 minute mark to hear about Brexit.
Diamond makes 3 general points.
1. The result of Brexit will be to overall to reduce long term UK GDP by 1%
2. The vote will lead to serious uncertainty over a prolonged period which will be damaging to UK economy.
3. Brexit will have negative impact of the overall EU project which should it unravel will lead to catastrophic consequences for both EU and UK.

Two points refer to specific serious damage to UK economy.. which make UK citizens poorer and less secure. And one to potential catastrophic damage to UK Europe and to the world economy which will make 000s of millions of people poorer and less secure.
I would agree.

Note All 3 of these consequences were widely predicted pre vote, and dismissed as "scaremongering".
  • #490
  • Edited 8:43am Oct 24, 2016 7:47am | Edited 8:43am
lol we can watch the same thing and get the exact opposite from it

1, that the biggest danger is the eurozone itself to unravel ,with the elections a danger ,is the worst case
2, only gives 10% chance for things to remain the same as Eurozone is angry and want to keep the rest together , is the best case
3, uncertainty will continue for some time, vote for unknown but had a logical argument
4, would be best for eurozone to alter for all the nations
5, he uses the phrase "its not going to be a disaster" a number of times around what we know Brexit itself ,he says half to one % reduction UK GDP

Conclusion of his answer on Brexit is the result is "unknown" full of event driven danger going forward with a wide band between best and worst
but the ball is now firmly in Euro Zones corner

sclerotic=becoming rigid and unresponsive; losing the ability to adapt.



15:07 with brexit kinda we expected and we never said it would be a disaster
15:10 brexit is a vote for the unknown that we thought would would
15:15 reduce the GDP of the UK it's going to forget little data that comes out it's
15:19pretty much going to a foreign direct investment people opening factories
15:23construction be it's not it's not a disaster it's we think
15:24 half percent to one percent that reduce the GDP of Europe a little bit
15:29not a disaster point three percent that's one thing we know in the second now we
15:33have this mountain of uncertainty and it isn't going to go away because you're
15:38gonna be reading the next year
15:40for two years about all the complexity and we don't know the outcome so I
15:44usually look at your the best case worst case they will go through here the best
15:48case it looks a lot like today and it's fine i give that only ten percent they're
15:51not going to get away with that because the eurozone is kinda angry and they
15:54want to keep the eurozone together and they're saying you're not going to free
15:57free access to our markets without free movement of people that's exactly why
16:01people in Britain voted against it for brexit and they buddy they well I
16:05wasn't for it
16:07there was logic for it and their logic was why tether yourself to sclerotic Europe you
16:11know where Brussels passing rules that affect British citizens and that was
16:15true so maybe the eurozone look at this occasion say let's fix the problems for
16:20everybody all 27 nations not just for Britain and then Britain negotiate some
16:24favorable deal
16:25what worries me the most about brexit is that it caused the eurozone itself to
16:29unravel
16:30ok so you have elections in you have a referendum coming up in Italy which is
16:35important elections next year in France and Germany so you don't even know what
16:39leadership is you have the same kind of populism surfacing over there they have
16:43over here they may have reference netherlands it'sit's tough and if you
16:48see the eurozone unravel that has potential catastrophic issues associate
16:53with it and maybe just a big recession it could be worse than that you know
16:58what that continents been through 100s years and no to me that help keeping the
17:02Union together would be a better outcome you know if they don't that's will do
17:06that too but a better outcome that they have a stronger Union a weaker Union
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #491
  • Oct 24, 2016 8:40am Oct 24, 2016 8:40am
Quoting Bones
lol we can watch the same thing and get the exact opposite from it
I dont find it al all surprising.
When comments are based on justifying a case as in Brexit, rather than analysing a case as I have, then its inevitable.

Old story.. if the only tool youve got in the box is a hammer? (Brexit) Then all problems you examine are defined by how they can be solved with a hammer.
Nothing new.
  • #492
  • Oct 24, 2016 9:15am Oct 24, 2016 9:15am
well Cliff I put the words there so we can see how far out your conclusions are
clearly theres no proper debate if you can find solace in what he said for remain only ,for UK demise only
little point to debate further


Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} I dont find it al all surprising. When comments are based on justifying a case as in Brexit, rather than analysing a case as I have, then its inevitable. Old story.. if the only tool youve got in the box is a hammer? (Brexit) Then all problems you examine are defined by how they can be solved with a hammer. Nothing new.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #493
  • Oct 24, 2016 11:17am Oct 24, 2016 11:17am
Quoting Bones
well Cliff I put the words there so we can see how far out your conclusions are clearly theres no proper debate if you can find solace in what he said for remain only ,for UK demise only little point to debate further {quote}
The OVERWHELMING analysis of leading Financial institutions worldwide, both commercial and regulatory/supervisional from the outset have deplored the Leaving of the EU by the UK as damaging to the economy of the UK, of the EU and that of the world economy.. and hence living standards of ordinary people across the board and particularly in the UK.. That was also the conclusion of the BoE and the Treasury.
However these assessment were treated with disdain and subjected to allegations of scaremongering.

Many of their estimates of that damage assumed that the aspirations of the UK Government for a "SOFT" Brexit would and could be achieved.
As indeed did BoA/MS. That is not the case.

As it becomes increasingly clear that that was a pipedream. That the actual process of leaving the EU, together with the real-politik of its consequences in Europe would make any sweetheart deal out of the question, that EEC membership would also present major problems and that even WTO membership (UK is not a separate WTO Member and must apply for such status.. only available with consent of all 150+WTO countries).... would, as is now becoming apparent, one of huge time consuming complexity and uncertainty.. I fined your defense of the situation precipitated by the Brexit vote, which will make millions in UK Europe and around the worlds poorer and less secure.. beyond understanding.

We can all piddle about with petty debates .. the details of who said what.. its not as bad as it seem.. what problem.. etc for as long as you like.
It wont change a thing. This is an economic cluster-fkuc of historic proportions as history will record. And for the ordinary people of the UK and Europe an utter disaster.
  • #494
  • Edited 5:23pm Oct 24, 2016 5:05pm | Edited 5:23pm
unfortunately its not going to be easy I doubt anyone thought it would

you've asked yourself why the vote against the advise
and come up with the wrong answer =you think the people were fooled
whilst you criticise populism its a word that describes politics to a T
your liberal in your views which will remian on the fringe in the UK for the foreseeable future


Polls have made miserable reading for Jeremy Corbyn ever since he won his first leadership election last year. And the bad news for the Labour leader is that they seem to be getting worse. The latest Ipsos Mori (https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-october-2016-charts.pdf) survey out today hands the Tories an 18 point lead, giving them a 47 per cent share of the vote. Thats the largest percentage of voters saying theyd back the Tories since before the 2010 election. Its also a clear sign that Theresa Mays leadership is going down well with voters. Here are the numbers:
Conservatives: 47% (+7)
Labour: 29% (-5)
Lib Dems: 7% (+1)
Ukip: 6% (-3)
Greens: 4% (-1)

Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} The OVERWHELMING analysis of leading Financial institutions worldwide, both commercial and regulatory/supervisional from the outset have deplored the Leaving of the EU by the UK as damaging to the economy of the UK, of the EU and that of the world economy.. and hence living standards of ordinary people across the board and particularly in the UK.. That was also the conclusion of the BoE and the Treasury. However these assessment were treated with disdain and subjected to allegations of scaremongering. Many of their estimates of that damage...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #495
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:23am Nov 1, 2016 11:23am
Quoting Bones
unfortunately its not going to be easy I doubt anyone thought it would you've asked yourself why the vote against the advise and come up with the wrong answer =you think the people were fooled whilst you criticise populism its a word that describes politics to a T your liberal in your views which will remian on the fringe in the UK for the foreseeable future Polls have made miserable reading for Jeremy Corbyn ever since he won his first leadership election last year. And the bad news for the Labour leader is that they seem to be getting worse. The...
In truth I dont give fig why it happened. I dont care how "frustrated" voters were with their political representatives. I dont give a s*t about the political partys in the UK. What happened on June 24th is a disaster. Its guaranteed to make UK residents poorer and less secure for a decade. It can be dressed up any way you like.
But if analysed as a Trade.. and we are all traders here, on a risk reward basis it wouldnt have crossed my desk.
Nor anyone else's here thats any idea of what they are doing.
All the BS about sovereignty" / "taking back control" is so NAIVE in a 21 century world in which SO MANY elements of Sovereignty are shared for common goals.
.NATO? WTO? UN? ICC? ECHR? etc..
The vision of Sovereignty proposed in Brexit is Westphalian. Its archaic.. Imperial.. 200 years old. There is no vision of of a 21st century definition by OUTCOME?
Does ANYBODY think that post Brexit the British people will have any more control over their lives than before? On analysis..ZERO.
Returning Democracy? To a country with an UNELECTED head of state, a bicameral law making system where one house (Lords) is COMPLETELY UNELECTED?
Where there are three significant devolved governments, yet no such body to represent English interests? A country that doesnt even guarantee the security of its citizens in a written constitution? (of 3 I think in the World) ??
A country that already controls its borders. Its a bloody Island for Gods sake?? Already controls through its own domestic immigration policy over 50% of all immigrants which in 6 years of its latest Conservative government it has FAILED to control.
There is minimal unemployment in UK. Nobodys job is being taken by migrants. EU migrants contribute MORE to the UK exchequer than Domestic Citizens... or NonEU migrants, and on a cultural friction index, EU migrants create substantially less challenges than non EU migrants who generally have more difficult religious and language/literacy issues. And finally EU migrants pay more towards and create LESS burden on UK services than the domestic citizen or NonEU migrants.

And this country of ours is obsessed by % migrants as a proportion of its population? And yet comes almost 80th in the world in terms of its % migrant population?
(Here are just SOME of the 79 odd countries with a higher % migrants.. Switzerland/Australia/Canada/Germany?USA/ Sweden/Norway/Belgium/Ireland/ Spain)
When fully analysed.. the whole thing seems crazy to me.
  • #496
  • Edited Nov 2, 2016 12:13am Nov 1, 2016 4:37pm | Edited Nov 2, 2016 12:13am
lots of lines blurred there if you can consider NATO as a loss of sovereignty

close ties ,free trade ,joint military outlook with like minded countries =good, thats what EU was sold on in the first place
political /law/monetary entanglement = bad, thats the loss of sovereignty

im not sure what you mean 80th lets just talk numbers
UK is densely populated with twice the population of Canada ,yet Canada is the second largest country in the world

UK is in the top destinations

  1. Spain 6.5 million immigrants. ... Spain is the second-largest country in the European Union and has a population of 46.7 million, a huge 12% of whom are foreign-born
  2. Australia 6.5 million immigrants. ... Australia has a population of 23.4 million, around a quarter of whom have been born outside the continent
  3. Canada 7.3 million immigrants. ... Canada is the second-largest country in the world and has a population of about 35 million; over a fifth population migrants
  4. France 7.4 million immigrants. ... France is the largest country in the European Union and has a population of approximately 65 million
  5. United Kingdom 7.8 million immigrants The United Kingdom has a population of almost 64 million, 12.4% of them immigrants


lets be clear even Cameron made the point he thinks it should be 10k or even later he changed to below 100k
blow me down its turned well over 300k you can't see why that shocked and is perceived out of control

what you should be looking at is England thats where their ending up and you could go even further to the south mainly

England 53 million population 130,395 km2
Germany 80 million population 357,168 km2

Germany is 2.8 times bigger than England with 9.8 million immigrants
France is nearly 5 times larger 643,801 km with less immigration

So the argument that the size and localisation of migration to England holds merit over any economy benefit (with size & original population of country)
Switzerland have the same problem thats why they vote that way against economic benefit
notably Engalnd and Wales voted leave ,Wales is twice as populated as Scotland with England 6 x more densely populated per km2

Which is the most densely populated country in Europe?
England has become the most overcrowded major country in Europe. Population growth is so rapid that four times as many people will soon be crammed in as Franceand twice as many as Germany. England has overtaken the Netherlands to become second only to tiny Malta as the most densely populated nation in the EU.

AN ENGLISHMAN’S home is his castle. Those castles, however, are among the smallest in the rich world: the average house size in Britain is just 86 square metres (925 square feet), around 40% smaller than the average American home. This fact has not dampened Britain's appetite for housing

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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #497
  • Edited 6:59am Nov 2, 2016 6:28am | Edited 6:59am
Quoting Bones
lots of lines blurred there if you can consider NATO as a loss of sovereignty close ties ,free trade ,joint military outlook with like minded countries =good, thats what EU was sold on in the first place political /law/monetary entanglement = bad, thats the loss of sovereignty im not sure what you mean 80th lets just talk numbers UK is densely populated with twice the population of Canada ,yet Canada is the second largest country in the world UK is in the top destinations Spain 6.5 million immigrants. ... Spain is the second-largest country in the...
IMHO, @bones, You make good well researched points here in relation to population density regarding England and the IMPACT of additional population growth in that situation.

However I suggest that you are measuring the WRONG THING... in the context of claiming that Migrant IMPACT is greater in the UK than in comparable nations across Europe and the western world. Which is the case you seek to make?

Migrants predominantly come to work and live in Cities. And their presence and inflow impact on urban areas and urban populations. and consequently the fact that Canada has vast uninhabited frozen hinterlands or the US horizon stretching prairies and deserts is of little real impact because the reality is that 82% of Americans live in Cities?

So I suggest that Population density as you've presented it is less than relevant. Density surely depends on the actual experience of that density.
And that is an urban phenomenon.
To that extent its the urban population concentration that I suggest is whats important in judging this?
In this context the the UK is little different that most of the countries you refer to in the land-mass density argument you outline above.
In UK 79% of population live in cities. For example..in US 82% /France 85% / Switzerland 77% / Spain 77%

Anyway. Good points mate.

PS the issue of House Prices relates to inability of successive UK governments to create planning legal and taxation* framework that facilitates construction output to match demand. Like the argument that pressure on public services is due to EU migration. ie the same people who pay up to 10% more in terms of their exchequer contributions, per capita FOR those services, than resident citizens are blamed because UK Government decide not to use those contributions to provide the very services they have been paid to provide.
*UK residents are paying twice as much property taxes as the international average, source: Policy Exchange
* In 1980 UK housing starts were over 70,000 PA. Today less than 40,000...
  • #498
  • Edited 9:30am Nov 2, 2016 8:41am | Edited 9:30am
Yea thats the point the problem is greater in the UK than most EU
Therefore a localised problem that EU can not answer by remaining rigid
We don't yet know how the rest of major EU view completely free movement
I used Canada but agree mostly un populated ,still not nearly as populated
If you stick to Europes heat map clearly Uk has some major hot spots there is a substainstial North -South divide


It s the governments goal to build 250K homes a year for decades its simply not possible ,by labour or conservative
the decline is from land supply not government failure
House price like anything is supply issue ,house building and house price are the opposite chart
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  • #499
  • Edited 9:04am Nov 2, 2016 8:44am | Edited 9:04am
whats happening and its not popular is greenbelt building ,have you seen the M25

The M25 is one of Europe's busiest motorways. In 2003, a maximum of 196,000 vehicles a day were recorded on the motorway just south of London Heathrow Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Heathrow_Airport) between junctions 13 and 14.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M25_motorway#cite_note-Motorway_traffic_up_4.25_on_2003-1)

Britain has the busiest, most congested roads in Europe according to new research
We have 77 vehicles per kilometre of road in Britain, that's 76% more than the European average
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #500
  • Edited 2:09pm Nov 2, 2016 10:41am | Edited 2:09pm
look to the future elections are we alone ?

Much of the disaffection with the EU among Europeans can be attributed to Brussels handling of the refugee issue. In every country surveyed, overwhelming majorities disapprove of how Brussels has dealt with the problem. This includes 94% of Greeks, 88% of Swedes and 77% of Italians. The strongest approval of EU management of the refugee crisis is in the Netherlands, but that backing is a tepid 31%.
june 16
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