BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

dosen't both countries your associating with have the same dilemma

Swiss blink first in EU standoff with striking similarities to UK predicament
Argument over free movement and access to single market leads to Switzerland creating jobs-for-locals compromise

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/06/swiss-eu-standoff-striking-similarities-uk-predicament

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9194562#post9194562

@Bones.. Your right. BUT
Look on 23rd June ... the UK electorate voted on a simple question..
Do you want to continue to be a Member of the EU or Leave?

There was NO question that asked..
Which is more important..
1.Stopping EU citizens rights to FoM ..
or
2. Losing access to the Open Market.

Nevertheless the UK government is PRETENDING that they have a mandate to act as if the SECOND question had been asked and answered as option 1.??
Now its clear that we cant have both. IMHO the ONLY mandate the UK Government have from the Referendum is to negotiate a EEC type exit.
I you see different please make your case.


Switzerland did the sums (they are good at sums..LoL) and realised that Access to the Open Market (in their case for Goods only) was way too valuable to loose.
The UK did sums too and almost without exception the electorate was warned that the price of loosing Open Market access would be really serious.
BUT the electorate chose to ignore this. Now we are beginning to see the consequences. And they are not good whatever way you cut it.
BTW FYI.. Switzerland has over 22% of its population composed of Non Swiss permanent residents. The UK has what? 12%.?. I cant remember.

Cliffwards, how do you determine the price? Euro is almost on par with GBP. It's good and bad. GU could be also on par. So 1 USD = 1 Euro = 1 GBP.

If you have gold, Euro, or USD, it's worth lots more.

On the good side. British can preserve their tradition. Not having to worry about outside culture.

well the referendum did have a simple yes/ no
out of the debates there was these key issues at the forefront of the decision

The 'Leave' campaign campaigned primarily on issues relating to sovereignty and migration
Whereas the 'Remain' campaign focused on the economic impacts of leaving the EU

So the question is answered with the result ,you can not stay in the market and control migration

The kind of arguments you and I are making are summed up in first 20 min question time attached
Yea nothing wrong two different views we have ,
We could probably pigeon hole our views politically ,id be Jacob Rees-Mogg (con) ,you'd be Norman Lamb (lib dem)
Theres no right answer with opinions other than whats the majority think going forward
I'm confident that the majority is with my view



regarding Switzerland I'm wondering what next and how that vote was reported ,like UK as silly to think about open boarders as negative?
Im assuming that the referendum still has to be resolved ?
I know one thing swiss thing is very similar inculding can't build enough houses
but Uk is more densely populated
density 694 V 523 (per square mile )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kndEoW-ZwHc

The structure of major Treaty grouping in Europe can be difficult to understand especially for non-european Members.
This Diagram will give you a clear oversight of what the are how they overlap and apply to the different countries in EU, EEC Customs Union Schengen etc. in cluding the UK in the context of the current Brexit negotiations.

Very nice graphic

Yeah.. helpful.. thanks mate..

Im going to REpost some extracts from my News Thread posts to this thread as a sort of Blog reaction to what happening a day to day in the economic news.
This first.
First posted .. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=611290#post9204949

Someone wrote me recently saying that FOR THE MOST PART.. there arent really, stupid people and smart people.. Just those that think things thru and consider other opinions and options, and subject some informed expertise to their conclusions, and those that dont. Whether as a result of programming, prejudice, ideology, emotion or laziness.
Any ideas?

That UK consumers will be poorer as a result of the Brexit decision is becoming incontrovertible. That it is a longterm paying strategy for the UK.. 5/10/20 years out..is debatable. Whats saddened to me is that 90% of those who made the choice were influenced by lies, and didnt understand the short term consequences still less the longterm strategic arguments which are for the most part speculative and way beyond the paygrade of normal people to judge.

First posted .. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=611482#post9204786

Quote...So no Brexit is becoming real possibility

No. Speaking personally, the vote on June 24th however misguided in my opinion must be respected. But it must be respected for EXACTLY what it said.. and not the extraordinary mandate extension its being used to justify.
By that I mean that it MAY well be that FULL membership of the EU is neither useful or politically stable for UK and that the referendum is a catalyst for flagging a new relationship.
Remember, we (UK) are not members of either of the the two major EU projects Common Currency (Euro) and Open Borders (Schengen) which suggests some divergence in interests are inevitable because of that in a "full Member Context" However the rhetoric and mandate licence being assumed by the current UK Government to rule out basic compliance requirements like FoM, for domestic political purposes, thus blocking such a new and pragmatic relationship is both dangerous and impractical and IMHO result in tears. A more moderate EEC type approach might be sensible, and ultimately acceptable to the 48% remainders AND to the less xenophobic and rightwing looneys of the Hard Brexit camp?

You wish the worst with Brexit. Are you happy now? Merkel and Juncker should be laughing at UK by now.

Well, Merkel clearly wants UK out. I know it from the tone of her speech. I call her "hostility" towards Brexit voters.

Merkel doesn't give a sh*t about UK. She shouldn't.

Gotta ask WTF is all this to YOU?
Your profile says you are in Indonesia? Whats your interest? What skin u got in this game?

Dont be offensive as to the integrity of my hopes and aspirations for my own country.
Or show such unbelievable arrogance as to ascribe schadenfreude to my observations because I believe the UK government is dealing with this crisis badly and that even the early outcomes appear to bear out my fears. Merkel tone and attitude as with any politician will be tailored to the domestic and international context of what she is commenting on as well as a reaction to the hostility of political comments from UK ministers.
The bottom line is that her statement reflect the consensus opinion of the other 27 member states.
FoM is not for negotiation.
Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions
And the people that said it could .. LIED. Smell the coffee. Deal with it.
/ENDOF

Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions
And the people that said it could .. LIED. Smell the coffee. Deal with it

which people? Its a IN OUT referendum
whats scary is you never listened to what the referendum was about
Cameron/Osbourne are clearly telling you
"we need to vote Remain to stay in the Single Market" & that a "vote to Leave was a vote to leave the Single Market"
any deal after is down to the Pm/government just like it was when Cameron went to do the deal earlier in the year
Its how the EU evolved year in year out
no vote back to the people in my lifetime pretty much

23 june 2013
UK to leave EU? PM David Cameron announces plan to hold EU referendum by 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvhtLsmbUvs


Feb 20, 2016
EU referendum: "The choice is in your hands" David Cameron
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w87GNWJHtFM&index=9&list=PL_DSOyO_CWUq0XkdxrQBiV0eB9DLl_2NI


june 12 2016
David Cameron & George Osborne's continual message in the EU Referendum
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vn2hSVfqtYc&index=7&list=PL_DSOyO_CWUq0XkdxrQBiV0eB9DLl_2NI

I SAID: Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions And the people that said it could .. LIED.

So WHO said it couldnt? YES.. Cameron warned of this exactly as you have illustrated and was accused of "Scaremongering" .."Project Fear"??
And who said it Could? .. WHO LIED? .....

1. "Trade with the EU will not be harmed. Our trade will almost certainly continue with the EU on similar to current circumstances. The reality is that the hard-headed, pragmatic businessmen on the continent will do everything to ensure that trade with Britain continues uninterrupted." David Davis, speech, 26 May 2016
2. "The EUs supporters say we must have access to the Single Market. Britain will have access to the Single Market after we vote leave.Vote Leave", What Happens When We Vote Leave?
3. "there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market," Boris Johnson, The Telegraph, 26 June 2016
4. "It should be win-win for us and it will be if we vote to leave and we can maintain free trade, stop sending money and also have control of our borders", Michael Gove, BBC, 8 May 2016
5. "The idea that our trade will suffer is silly,Vote Leave," What Happens When We Vote Leave

The point is

1. Remainer Voters believed that we would loose Single Market Access.. and had some understanding of the consequences...
2. Brexiteers didnt, and most apparently DIDnt understand the consequences and voted to cut FoM and "Take Back Control".

However in your response you have actually nailed the problem with BREXIT. It was "SOLD & BOUGHT" as a protest vote about Sovereignty Immigration and inequality.. but as youve pointed out WAS actually as Cameron and many others warned ... about leaving the Single Market.

When its realised that in practical terms that it will do little to solve the Immigration issue.. and that Sovereignty in the 21st Century is defined by outcomes rather than by 19/20th century definitions .. and that the consequence of loosing access to the Single Market.. is essentially about what almost every reputable economic institution world wide, guru and Think Tank predicted it was voting to be poorer and less secure.. The shit is really going to hit the fan.

Most Voters are like Kids.. they act on impulse. They believe what they read in the Papers, what they read on Social Media, they dont analyse, have no idea or interest in MacroEconomics (look at the % of voters who didnt know until polling day which way to vote?)
And as things go bad on this Brexit thing.. .. watch them say.. Oh we were never told.. thats not fair.. why is the nasty EU doing this to us? You see it already in the FF News Forum posts.. "Nasty Mr Junker .. that Bitch Merkel.. EU is falling apart.. The mindless abuse, and ad hominem Tu quoque arguments... of the Brexit apologists you will see whats happening. etc..etc..
This is a long game. Reality will be slow to sink in though we are seeing the first stages,,Optimism over the strength of the economy has fallen sharply in the last month according to Ipsos MORIs Political Monitor. More than half (53%, up from 37% in September) think the economy will get worse over the next twelve months, with a quarter (24%) thinking it will get better. Public pessimism over the recent devaluation of the pound. with more than half (55%) say they believe the decline in the pounds value to be a bad thing for Britain just 14% say it is a good thing. And so far the inflation impact hasnt even begun.. except for Marmite..LoL.

Brexit=
Older generation out voting the younger generation.
1: Immigration problem - open borders - young immigrates getting jobs then bring their parents in the country. That puts stress on the social system
Why?
Because the older generation are missing out on care , benefits, doctors and hospital benefits.
They dont give a rats arse about the the single market economy.

If the young generation got off their arses and voted then UK mighten be in the situation they are in.
2: If the polititions had of LISTENED to the people who voted them in then it might have been a lot different.

Situation is they didnt do either , so tough they now got to live with it.

its difficult to figure out how you laid out who said what ,i think its true that an argument was presented that it would be silly for EU to start any kind of high tariff, even to this day this is unknown what the deal is .Much water to tread including the elections next year.

Its not about not having a plan but more theres no way a actual plan could be known.

Both sides made unknown speculations

but Cameron is very clear in a address to the nation on a number of occasions what this vote is about

best to look at Gove interview out of all the your quotes

Gove is clear we will not be in the single market

1 Trade with the EU will not be harmed. Our trade will almost certainly continue with the EU on similar to current circumstances. The reality is that the hard-headed, pragmatic businessmen on the continent will do everything to ensure that trade with Britain continues uninterrupted." David Davis, speech, 26 May 2016 speculation

2 "The EUs supporters say we must have access to the Single Market. Britain will have access to the Single Market after we vote leave.Vote Leave", What Happens When We Vote Leave? ?? who said ,this and yea we will have access to the single market like every other non eu

3 "there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market," Boris Johnson, The Telegraph, 26 June 2016 after the vote

4 "It should be win-win for us and it will be if we vote to leave and we can maintain free trade, stop sending money and also have control of our borders", Michael Gove, BBC, 8 May 2016

7 min in, should we be in the single market ,he says no

11 to 14 min in is the reference you point which Marr picks him up , Gove thinks logically no tariff will happen, it was a common argument that seems to confuse you

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03thvx4

5 "The idea that our trade will suffer is silly,Vote Leave," What Happens When We Vote Leavespeculation Gove ?

I think you grossly underestimate how unpopular EU is in England

Given that the whole remain was about the economic dangers this message was very clear

Its pretty demeaning to say vote leave voters are like kids

not as clever as the remainers we are talking 17 million people you think were fooled one way

In or out of free market (which we pay for anyway) is not enough but a preferable outcome as close as possible both sides

This is what EU set out to be originally

Had EU moved on free movement at the time the vote may have tipped to stay

It was just another reinforcement we have such little say while paying for the privilege

With high fear it can only get worse , like annual immigration numbers skyrocketing 300,000 + way above experts predictions

(England will need to build a new home every SIX MINUTES to keep up with runaway immigration)

This project was perceived as wildly out of control

what you might find is
Eur will not escape any consequences of any such pain causing policy
its going to best sort this amicably as the leavers pointed in their speculation

You know what @ Bones.. this boring..
Ive made my points. Youve made yours. lets agree to differ.

I have every confidence that this problem is going to be eventually resolved on what the people DID NOT vote for,
Rather than what they did. And the realisation that Brexit in reality means Hard Brexit.

There is one issue in your response that does need correction.
I NEVER SAID THAT "vote leave voters are like kids... as you allege.
I expect your retraction of that allegation.

fair enough Cliff your right I will mention most your posts talk about leave vote as stupid
forgive me for reading your comment the wrong way
this is not directed at leave
cool

"Most Voters are like Kids.. they act on impulse. They believe what they read in the Papers, what they read on Social Media, they dont analyse, have no idea or interest in MacroEconomics (look at the % of voters who didnt know until polling day which way to vote?)
And as things go bad on this Brexit thing.. .. watch them say.. Oh we were never told.. thats not fair.. why is the nasty EU doing this to us? You see it already in the FF News Forum posts.. "Nasty Mr Junker .. that Bitch Merkel.. EU is falling apart"

[quote=cliffedwards;9211730] I have every confidence that this problem is going to be eventually resolved on what the people DID NOT vote for, Rather than what they did. And the realisation that Brexit in reality means Hard Brexit.

Absolutely correct . Take out all the personal attacks. It has been very interesting to read everyones points of view on the subject and no doubt will be long after we have gone.

Sorry @Bones that wont fly either..
I have NOT.