The Really Useless Thread | Page 7215 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,281
  • Edited 5:48pm Oct 18, 2016 5:28pm | Edited 5:48pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Sorry to distract the thread hoom. By all means go right ahead. what was it you wanted to discuss about the eu swing today?
Thanks for your understanding , I have in no case beeen distracted ....just that I have been involved in the politic talk countless times and in 99% of the time when

everything is setteled you would get decieved even by your own choice . History repeats itself pattern .

For euro ,1.096x is and has been the level for reference on yearly , is it trailing time or clear all especially that a potential FA short circuit could trigger from ECB [taper] !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,282
  • Oct 18, 2016 5:34pm Oct 18, 2016 5:34pm
Quoting Pharm0r
aka go hide under a rock, don't think any bigger than the screen in front of you a bunch of ambiguous gobbley goop from sisse's largest "holier than thou" nut swinger, complete with an attack on those that went long EU.
Aha , think big think smart je je !

Now , where did I put my memory wiping pills
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,283
  • Oct 19, 2016 7:53am Oct 19, 2016 7:53am
*pop*
  • #144,284
  • Oct 19, 2016 7:56am Oct 19, 2016 7:56am
Not just yet........Watching level.0950 closely....we've been here before 7-25-16.
  • #144,285
  • Oct 19, 2016 8:01am Oct 19, 2016 8:01am
Yup. Like to see a test from further below.
  • #144,286
  • Oct 19, 2016 8:02am Oct 19, 2016 8:02am
Quoting IMARICH1
Not just yet........Watching level.0950 closely....we've been here before 7-25-16.
Actually very exciting now . Are you watching @Pharmor ? . Right now I will say that our chance is still very much better then Trump's I have my fixed SL for the long trade at 0940.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,287
  • Oct 19, 2016 9:34am Oct 19, 2016 9:34am
Perhaps expectations of taper talk will keep this balloon in the air. My feeling is that, absent that, we'd have broken through. Might be sitting in the same spot tomorrow pre ecb making a hold or fold call on the iteration short. Days not over yet I guess.
  • #144,288
  • Oct 19, 2016 9:37am Oct 19, 2016 9:37am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Actually very exciting now . Are you watching @Pharmor ? . Right now I will say that our chance is still very much better then Trump's I have my fixed SL for the long trade at 0940.
The odds of 1.094x (1.106x for that matter in which you guys are 'stuck' for now) being protected until today's close was extremely high for the ECB play tomorrow.

Why? That is the question a leave you both open for discussion since you took the opposite side of the rest...

Europe going home and both levels especially the floor are completely naked and won't hold the next test.

Will get a rather very long wrap up on iteration 19 and this minor flow in the upcoming sessions. For now, guess what? ....yes exactly same levels, same trades, same all.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,289
  • Edited 10:44am Oct 19, 2016 10:23am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} The odds of 1.094x (1.106x for that matter in which you guys are 'stuck' for now) being protected until today's close was extremely high for the ECB play tomorrow. Why? That is the question a leave you both open for discussion since you took the opposite side of the rest... Europe going home and both levels especially the floor are completely naked and won't hold the next test. Will get a rather very long wrap up on iteration 19 and this minor flow in the upcoming sessions. For now, guess what? ....yes exactly same levels, same trades, same...
Yes, I was playing both directions so it is also kind of hedge. I expected retracement and that I could take profit both sides. Are in worse position now. It is strong support at 1.0950 ,
And as situation is I will actually average down with a buy limit at 1.0952 with SL 1.0939 It gives a extra risk for 13 pips . R:R very good.

We are in sell outlook but are at Support level below middle but not at the extreme. I still think we will see price deeper but first expect to see retracement and I personally change short term outlook to neutral.

I add a weekly chart with the levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 26 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,290
  • Edited 2:33pm Oct 19, 2016 12:20pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} The odds of 1.094x (1.106x for that matter in which you guys are 'stuck' for now) being protected until today's close was extremely high for the ECB play tomorrow. Why? That is the question a leave you both open for discussion since you took the opposite side of the rest... Europe going home and both levels especially the floor are completely naked and won't hold the next test. Will get a rather very long wrap up on iteration 19 and this minor flow in the upcoming sessions. For now, guess what? ....yes exactly same levels, same trades, same...
well, exactly, 1.094 seemed it would hold! and so finally Im back with you guys - and here is my chart for tomorrow ECB.

-------------------------------------------------------

chart: the short term leg is well under way - first target hit. Its behaving very nicely so far without much suprises on the way. Reasons? - with much much simplicity:

USD: macro (mid and long term strong, short term stable, exp positive), rates +QE (main driver, markets pricing in short and mid term increases), risk-off (out of game for now)
EUR: macro (long, mid, short term neutral/stable, exp negative via Brexit), rates + QE (stable, well see what ECB does), risk-off (possible due to Brexit - no carry trade in inside EU crises)

=) so just basically USD rates are driving the short term leg strongly and EU uncertainty =) SELL on short term. (RMT) ECB can just add the fuel - BUT even with total monetary divergance (ECB going full in) I dont expect clean sweep on W1 extending beyong extension (see chart) - due to elections uncertainty. But im not sure on that. not likely though.

In any case, more difficult to jump in now as the choose your poison time is gone for the short term leg - for cheap tickets absolutely. On ECB: expecting easy play - scenarios: look at the chrt:

A - flop (no more QE, no extension, stressing the negative effects of -IR, need for fiscal policy change) =) retrace.
B - inline (monetary policy works, probable extension of QE, all options still on the table, need for fiscal policy change!!!) =) calm continuation on D/W
C - some kind of "real" easing (-(-IR), +QE or extension of QE) or supper dovish tone =) market on wrong side =) all the way down.

P.S.: arrows just suggest the direction - action price action (momentum) depends on ECB tone/action.
P.S.: I pray for A - just look at the beginning of november - there may be a monster f**k up situation (e.g. good NFP, Trump winning, hawkish FED etc.) X however, most likely we will get through it calmly (= Clinton wins, inline NFP, hawkish FED) - I would short again definitely - it would be perfect for USD via rates and macro diferentials! Even though siggested lvl is on the edge of cheap tickets.
P.S.: if we stick to short term leg trading strategy we share here among other things - in my view not much to do - same lvls same trades same all. May be possible to play only the news flow if there is a big suprise.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 42 KB


in case anyone is interested in mid term. of course the leg is gonna extend into Q1/Q2. well see. but just for the orientation. and remember: we still in cheap tickets.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 27 KB


and for fun: here is my first try of long term map

A. scenario - no major global economy collapse, US normalizes rates, Brexit harder (punch to EU macro, delays monetary normalization)
B. scenario - complete callapse of EU (due to political factors) =) we go beyong normal long term leg and euro eventually gets abandoned.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 29 KB


P.S. any comments welcomed. mostly on short term leg as thats whats most rational to work with.
++++ as short mid and long term is allined - you can perfectly see how it folds into each other
=) short term norm target is to flip of mid term. norm mid term target is part of the long term extension.
  • #144,291
  • Oct 19, 2016 12:58pm Oct 19, 2016 12:58pm
Quoting USD-Bear
giving UK100 shorts a try @ 7036 UK100 D1: {image}
another try @ 7023
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #144,292
  • Edited 2:26pm Oct 19, 2016 1:02pm | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} another try @ 7023
it depends on timeframe and target. but short term - BOE is the real pain now if someone wants to trigger the gun
  • #144,293
  • Oct 20, 2016 12:27am Oct 20, 2016 12:27am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} another try @ 7023
stop @ BE
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #144,294
  • Oct 20, 2016 2:39am Oct 20, 2016 2:39am
....and that was it for Europe in very simple session this week. We finally can start the FX trading week today.

--> Before going to the Euro, Sterling struggling a lot to hold and bastards are pretty much taken for granted BOE action. They will squeeze every single last penny out of the BOE until the current rain from brexit becomes a hurricane in the next few months and they will just abandon ship fast and easy from the back door...

-->Whatever the case, one more time GU and GY entering in choose your poison time. At these levels if you don't know what you are doing is better to look somewhere else. As widely expected 1.228x only level in play.

-->For today. It will a shame if I write my full outlook after @Chester post. So I would add the basic flow FA wise on what to track:

Simple ECB expected with "tapering" as only thing to track. Markets are aligned for last month gossip to just fade as lies until late Dec when the ECB will have to clear the path of what's next on QE.

In terms of the flow, a uneventful report avoiding all these noise unti, the round of question set the flow in motion...

Gl all trading or planning to trade today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,295
  • Oct 20, 2016 3:36am Oct 20, 2016 3:36am
hey guys i have a question on tapering? Isn't the expectation or announcement of tapering bullish for the Euro? Or is the sentiment bearish because it is a policy change? a little confused... would be awesome if someone would help me out with this..?
  • #144,296
  • Oct 20, 2016 4:01am Oct 20, 2016 4:01am
hi guys ,
not much from my-side just see a test of 1.112x with a hawkish draghi ... on the other side everything clear for a free fall with dovish draghi

we are all still in the brexit chop zone ... and not adding any more positions whether long or short and just managing the running one's ....

expectation : Both side has room to move but more likely to the south ....

Hope we get out of the chop zone today and get into trading mode ...

just a thought ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,297
  • Oct 20, 2016 4:51am Oct 20, 2016 4:51am
Quoting chester123
{quote} well, exactly, 1.094 seemed it would hold! and so finally Im back with you guys - and here is my chart for tomorrow ECB. ------------------------------------------------------- chart: the short term leg is well under way - first target hit. Its behaving very nicely so far without much suprises on the way. Reasons? - with much much simplicity: USD: macro (mid and long term strong, short term stable, exp positive), rates +QE (main driver, markets pricing in short and mid term increases), risk-off (out of game for now)...
Can't say much about it other than agree, agree, agree. Very clear and thorough. The maps and analyses are sensible and the levels are the same I'm working with anyway. And I'm digging the addition of the "stupid tickets" zone. Doesn't get much clearer than that.
  • #144,298
  • Oct 20, 2016 9:00am Oct 20, 2016 9:00am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Actually very exciting now . Are you watching @Pharmor ? . Right now I will say that our chance is still very much better then Trump's I have my fixed SL for the long trade at 0940.
Yes, still holding mine
  • #144,299
  • Oct 20, 2016 10:33am Oct 20, 2016 10:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} same levels, same trades, same all.

lol, one of my all time favorite things said on this site...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,300
  • Oct 20, 2016 10:39am Oct 20, 2016 10:39am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yes, still holding mine
Taken out at SL for me . Well that is what can happen when wrong .

Waiting for Sisse's report from ECB . What I understand is that they has not discussed to extend the QE after end of March. And from that I for now conclude that they by that will possible end it after March. And that should be bullish Euro. I can be very wrong about this. Wait for the captains conclusion .
Trading in the shadow of SM
8 traders viewing now