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USD/CAD

  • #10,741
  • Oct 19, 2016 2:14pm Oct 19, 2016 2:14pm
I would be very wary of holding any shorts on this pair. My guess is orders were sandbagged to reach this target and then long term money came in to scoop up more USD exposures.

If any more downside will happen it will be very limited.

My guess is the 1.31027 price is the most absolute low we'll see on this pair for a little bit.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #10,742
  • Oct 19, 2016 2:55pm Oct 19, 2016 2:55pm
if OIL falls under 50 again then...CAD will weaken and USDCAD will go above 1.3310 area this time -might even rally up to 1.3800
Wait and See game is going on right now.
BOC Gov Poloz Speaks in 14min hopefully he also weakens CAD like he supposed to do

Long from 1.3015 and 1.3082 SL@BE - no TP
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #10,743
  • Oct 19, 2016 3:19pm Oct 19, 2016 3:19pm
Quoting eqshack
if OIL falls under 50 again then...CAD will weaken and USDCAD will go above 1.3310 area this time -might even rally up to 1.3800 Wait and See game is going on right now. BOC Gov Poloz Speaks in 14min hopefully he also weakens CAD like he supposed to do Long from 1.3015 and 1.3082 SL@BE - no TP

Word on the street is Russia wont agree to the oil deal. Not sure how that will roll over with the Arabs but w/e.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #10,744
  • Edited 12:27am Oct 20, 2016 12:02am | Edited 12:27am
Could the writing be on the wall?

1) Oil up over 20% since September 20th while UCAD is basically at the same price it was at that time. Oil/UCAD correlation breaking down for now.

2) Oil producer's increasing their hedge short while speculator's push price higher.

3) Perceived US rate hike coming after the election

4) Today Mr. Poloz flappin' his gums about possible future stimulus. In addition, certainly no expectation for a near term rate hike.

5) OPEC, Russians talking supply cut agreement, ok we believe you

What happens to UCAD if oil sells off back to 48, 45, or 40?? To the moon Alice!!

Meanwhile, an important 4H close above yesterday's high, momentum is building

I know many traders don't put much stock in candle formations but here is the Daily candle snapshot at the moment. That is over a 100 pip Doji pin bar. I am looking forward to the London session. Who wants to sell into that formation, especially when it's right in the middle of an ascending channel?
Attached Image
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #10,745
  • Oct 20, 2016 12:24am Oct 20, 2016 12:24am
I am on the buy side here, because
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,746
  • Oct 20, 2016 2:19am Oct 20, 2016 2:19am
Quoting ItsAtrap
situation in the hourly chart. Always try to lock in profits or at least move to break-even. Protecting your capital should be the first concern. Dont care if the market reverses and stops you out at break-even 1000 times. You are still ahead of 90% of traders because you at least preserved your capital for the day when your trade will NOT get stopped at b/e but will instead become a runner that nets you 100s of pippos {image}
Hello guys. I got stopped out of my short trades now, for profits of between 30 pips on my latest shorts, to 140 or so, on my initial short entries.

Like I said earlier, 1.30 is where I'd be looking to close shorts and take some profits, not initiate new short positions. See what happened at 1.306...


Unfortunately, my partial TP was at 1.2990 so was missed my 16 pips or so. Oh well, I take the profits the market gave and will look for other opportunities.
  • #10,747
  • Oct 20, 2016 4:15am Oct 20, 2016 4:15am
Quoting Expo33
Could the writing be on the wall? 1) Oil up over 20% since September 20th while UCAD is basically at the same price it was at that time. Oil/UCAD correlation breaking down for now. 2) Oil producer's increasing their hedge short while speculator's push price higher. 3) Perceived US rate hike coming after the election 4) Today Mr. Poloz flappin' his gums about possible future stimulus. In addition, certainly no expectation for a near term rate hike. 5) OPEC, Russians talking supply cut agreement, ok we believe you What happens to UCAD if oil sells...
Thank God.... I thought I was the only one stuck with that doji. I kept looking at higher time frames and at daily I saw a clear buy, but I thought maybe some how it would still be ok for a sell.

The sell idea was based off f my own need to want to go short
  • #10,748
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:44am Oct 20, 2016 7:44am
Quoting USD-charts
{quote} Thank God.... I thought I was the only one stuck with that doji. I kept looking at higher time frames and at daily I saw a clear buy, but I thought maybe some how it would still be ok for a sell. The sell idea was based off f my own need to want to go short
As I suspected we have lift off. It seems the Canadian bacon was a tad over cooked. Oil selling off a bit, sentiment changing. London has spoken and New York agrees.

I'm glad you didn't get short
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #10,749
  • Oct 20, 2016 8:37am Oct 20, 2016 8:37am
2 shorts on usd /cad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,750
  • Oct 20, 2016 10:14am Oct 20, 2016 10:14am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} As I suspected we have lift off. It seems the Canadian bacon was a tad over cooked. Oil selling off a bit, sentiment changing. London has spoken and New York agrees. I'm glad you didn't get short
Unfortunately I didnt take the lng. today I have messed up big time.
  • #10,751
  • Oct 20, 2016 11:24am Oct 20, 2016 11:24am
USD/CAD reached the support at 1.3000 and rebounded from that level after forming a pair of hammer bars on the daily time frame. I think that next target is 1.3280 - 1.3300.
  • #10,752
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:57pm Oct 20, 2016 7:57pm
If the moment is strong today, it may reach a new high around 1.3390 on monday.
50% right - 50% wrong
  • #10,753
  • Oct 20, 2016 9:28pm Oct 20, 2016 9:28pm
Potential retracement on oil to 47.50 would add fuel to the UCAD fire.

Tomorrow's Canadian CPI and retail sales print will be interesting. Anything less than expected could send UCAD to the moon. Of course anything is possible. At the moment UCAD is challenging the 78.6FIB for a potential full retrace back to 133.06

My view on oil as I think it is very pertinent to UCAD in the coming weeks. Daily bearish engulf with divergence.

Best trading to all, great weekend too!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #10,754
  • Oct 20, 2016 10:39pm Oct 20, 2016 10:39pm
Quoting Expo33
Potential retracement on oil to 47.50 would add fuel to the UCAD fire. Tomorrow's Canadian CPI and retail sales print will be interesting. Anything less than expected could send UCAD to the moon. Of course anything is possible. At the moment UCAD is challenging the 78.6FIB for a potential full retrace back to 133.06 My view on oil as I think it is very pertinent to UCAD in the coming weeks. Daily bearish engulf with divergence. Best trading to all, great weekend too! {image}
Momentum looks weak. Adjusted my longs' TP to 1.33. I don't want to be greedy. Canadian CPI forecasted to be positive for CAD though.
50% right - 50% wrong
  • #10,755
  • Oct 20, 2016 11:44pm Oct 20, 2016 11:44pm
Quoting drpips1
{quote} Momentum looks weak. Adjusted my longs' TP to 1.33. I don't want to be greedy. Canadian CPI forecasted to be positive for CAD though.
Asian session, not much to be expected at the moment.

Likely not many buyers at this level. On the flip side, who wants to be holding the Loonie over the weekend as commodity currencies have started a bit of a sell off. Oil still drifting lower, off 3% from yesterday's high.

I have scaled back my long position but am letting 70% still run into the morning's CPI print. IMHO, a print in line with expectation won't help the Loonie. A miss of .1 or 0 could push UCAD back to major resistance at 133.

All speculation of course. News rarely seems to benefit my positions. At least my positions are well in the green and SL's in place at 1.3175. Still targeting 134.5, 135.30, and ultimately 138.

Good luck, nice weekend
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #10,756
  • Oct 21, 2016 7:36am Oct 21, 2016 7:36am
Quoting eqshack
if OIL falls under 50 again then...CAD will weaken and USDCAD will go above 1.3310 area this time -might even rally up to 1.3800 Wait and See game is going on right now. BOC Gov Poloz Speaks in 14min hopefully he also weakens CAD like he supposed to do Long from 1.3015 and 1.3082 SL@BE - no TP

i will try to short first attempt 1.3310 area with SL 15pips. Still got longs open
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #10,757
  • Oct 21, 2016 7:43am Oct 21, 2016 7:43am
CAD pair run really wild. i short CADJPY, starting yesterday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Let Market Tell You
  • #10,758
  • Oct 21, 2016 7:48am Oct 21, 2016 7:48am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update Long term view USD/CAD : Buyers become aggresive : {image}

Update :

A higher low is created wich give use a tighter SL for a long entry :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #10,759
  • Oct 21, 2016 12:41pm Oct 21, 2016 12:41pm
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All this action and no post in over 4 hours.
Are you traders taking Friday off?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,760
  • Oct 21, 2016 12:56pm Oct 21, 2016 12:56pm
Next week some pull back
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