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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #20,661
  • Oct 19, 2016 10:57am Oct 19, 2016 10:57am
Quoting rocky
{quote} {image}
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Great work Rocky!
Always great to have both of you in the thread.

Rocky I wasn't sure if you had left the site as I check in to your thread here but haven't seen activity haha.
  • #20,662
  • Oct 19, 2016 11:25am Oct 19, 2016 11:25am
Quoting jmezz
YM -9, +16, +1, +10 = +18 Sloppy day today, my read was totally off. When we created weak NSH I should have been on the lookout for the long. However I got hung up on wanting to hit the harmonic correction completion. Also was expected a deeper retracement given the weak NSH, not a 382 retracement then run up of price. Notes on charts. {image} {image}
tough day. but all in all I think you did pretty good. Even though the first trade didn't work out, I think it looked like a good opportunity. Your 3rd trade was beautifully managed. one of the problems I have with aggressively managing trade is actually managing it aggressively like you did. I still leave to much room for hope.

Even though, its part of the game we play. I really hate taking a loss on the first trade. sometime it has an impact... even a little one. its hard to completely shake.
  • #20,663
  • Oct 19, 2016 11:26am Oct 19, 2016 11:26am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Just wanted to stop in and say hello and it's nice to see you carrying it forward. Here is an observation on the YM for the next few days to a couple of weeks. The immediate expectation is for a NSH and for the Bulls to take price past 18100. As we initially saw the market find buyers at 18050 putting in a HL on a nice strong rotation candle. If the market finds further selling at the test of 18100 the Bulls will be expected to defend 18070-18050. Price should hold there but if it falls further look for buying opportunities around...
Just wanted to follow up to the chart I posted yesterday and to give everyone confidence in continuing to build your skill set. Harmonics are just amazing in providing you with a great and accurate road map for price.

Yesterday I said the immediate expectation was for a NSH that has occurred prior to that I stated that if selling was found at 18100 that the Bulls should defend 18050 that too happened. The sellers came in earlier overnight 18090 just short of 18100 and pushed down to a low of 18031 where the Bulls came in aggressively and 18050 was defended with strength as expected. The Bulls having consumed all of the sellers in the area were able to get passed 18100 without difficulty and complete the expectation of the NSH. Harmonically I stated 18200 would possible be hit but price may find a some challenges at 18160 since there is structure there and also some harmonics completions. This is where we are at at the moment but price should muscle through 18160 and find some more challenges around 18170-18200 we will see what ends up happening. An updated chart for you to have a visual.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #20,664
  • Oct 19, 2016 11:32am Oct 19, 2016 11:32am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Just wanted to stop in and say hello and it's nice to see you carrying it forward. Here is an observation on the YM for the next few days to a couple of weeks. The immediate expectation is for a NSH and for the Bulls to take price past 18100. As we initially saw the market find buyers at 18050 putting in a HL on a nice strong rotation candle. If the market finds further selling at the test of 18100 the Bulls will be expected to defend 18070-18050. Price should hold there but if it falls further look for buying opportunities around...

Good to hear from you Mr.Pip. I'm looking forward to see how your call plays out.

I'm noticed that you use the 60M. has your view and strategy to expand to higher time frames.

edit: just noticed your update
  • #20,665
  • Oct 19, 2016 11:50am Oct 19, 2016 11:50am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Good to hear from you Mr.Pip. I'm looking forward to see how your call plays out. I'm noticed that you use the 60M. has your view and strategy to expand to higher time frames. edit: just noticed your update
Hello my friend to answer your question no I still trade the 233 but trading order flow and it was clear for the less experienced to see the Gartley forming on the 1H verses the 233. Looking for longs into that completion area.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #20,666
  • Oct 19, 2016 11:56am Oct 19, 2016 11:56am
Quoting x3m-PippiN
Nice counter expectation trade, jmezz! I was thinking about taking it but since we didn't have a NSL (aka it's against expectation) I was going to break my rule about not trading against expectation. My question to you and the others is: Do you have a written trading plan? Because the "system" , "method" or however you want to call it .. is very dynamic and there are a lot of tools that can be used and it's hard for me to write it down. When I try to come up with a good trading plan...it always ends up looking too general. I mean when I'm trading...
I would side with jmezz on this one. theres alot to analysis between order flow, harmonics, Price action, support/ resistance and supply / demand zones. Throw in there long term and short term bias's too. Very rarely will everything line up so you might have to settle for 3 out of 4 or 4 out of 6, etc.....

So, you'll have to use some discretion on your part. As time goes by and you gain more experience you'll get a better feel for your market.

What I ended up doing, was writing down just broad guidelines to operate from and work from there, otherwise your plan will be to complicated and impossible to follow. Start with the stuff you tested individually like just supply and demand, then order flow, then price action. look for what works and use that as your base. Keep it simple otherwise you'll get lost.

One thing that I'm starting to get is that someone else plan way not work effectively for you even if its produced excellent results for the originator. This is because everybody is unique with different personalities and triggers. So 2 people with the same plan can produce 2 entirely different results. Maybe this is why most people gear toward strategies that have a "if then" methodology.

I would definitely use an "if then" methodology as a base though and use your journal to figure out what works for you. and tailor that to your time and personality.
  • #20,667
  • Oct 19, 2016 12:16pm Oct 19, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello my friend to answer your question no I still trade the 233 but trading order flow and it was clear for the less experienced to see the Gartley forming on the 1H verses the 233. Looking for longs into that completion area.
Nice view. interested in what happens at the 18150 area. Will we get a PB or BO
  • #20,668
  • Oct 19, 2016 12:23pm Oct 19, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting rocky
{quote} {image}
cha ching . notice call on the break out. that's quit a push
  • #20,669
  • Oct 19, 2016 1:28pm Oct 19, 2016 1:28pm
Price has found some selling pressure at the test of 18170 as expected we have confluence of two smaller term ABCD which should push price into a deeper correction I do however expect price to not get passed 18130 possibly even hold to 18140.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #20,670
  • Oct 19, 2016 2:39pm Oct 19, 2016 2:39pm
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  • #20,671
  • Oct 19, 2016 3:00pm Oct 19, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} tough day. but all in all I think you did pretty good. Even though the first trade didn't work out, I think it looked like a good opportunity. Your 3rd trade was beautifully managed. one of the problems I have with aggressively managing trade is actually managing it aggressively like you did. I still leave to much room for hope. Even though, its part of the game we play. I really hate taking a loss on the first trade. sometime it has an impact... even a little one. its hard to completely shake.
Yeah I was feeling pretty good about that first trade because I've had some good trades playing rejections off the open lately but this one just happened to not work out. Luckily price gave an opportunity to make some back right afterwards.

When I'm looking at an aggressive entry I am usually looking for price to make a strong move right away and if it doesn't happen then that's no big deal, just need to make sure to protect the position as soon as price gives the signal.

I'm like you, I really don't like taking a loss on the first trade either. It's so hard not to take those emotions into the next trade and let them influence your decisions. Today I told myself I was going to treat the 2nd trade like a totally new trade and so I had moved my stop down and was going to let it run however I ended up getting stopped out. Had I scratched the trade when I wanted to when I was at quota and to make up for the first loss I would have come out with more profit, go figure haha.
  • #20,672
  • Oct 19, 2016 3:04pm Oct 19, 2016 3:04pm
Quoting rocky
{image}
These charts really are interesting.

What are the cyan and magenta circles?

I think I understand the retail flush as shown by all the orders hitting the bid while there simultaneously not being much action on the offer side. But with the stops, are you able to tell because the top portion of that bar had all activity on the offer side and barely on the bid, and that this occurred near the high of the previous bar?
  • #20,673
  • Oct 19, 2016 6:29pm Oct 19, 2016 6:29pm
good afternoon traders.

US30 -89T

Looks like luck was on my side today

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  • #20,674
  • Oct 20, 2016 1:47am Oct 20, 2016 1:47am
Hello Traders. Firstly many thanks to Mr Pip for all the time and effort and willingness to pass on his extraordinary knowledge.As someone who has struggled over the years this thread has changed my perception of trading completely!

Many thanks also to the regular contributors who take the time to share their ideas and analysis and prove that Mr Pips education really does work.

I have been trading a demo account for the last 3 months with 9 positive and 2 negative weeks so decided this week to take the plunge and start live trading! I trade hourly charts as my job takes me away from a computer for up to 12 hours at a time and I still have yet to master the complete discipline of letting the plan run its course.
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Sorry not sure if these charts will work out.
  • #20,675
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:05am Oct 20, 2016 7:05am
Quoting Mack2013
good afternoon traders. US30 -89T Looks like luck was on my side today {image}
Mack you killed it yesterday!

Those look like nice, straightforward trades. They worked out perfect where you bailed at structure both times.

Congrats bud.
  • #20,676
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:16am Oct 20, 2016 7:16am
Quoting Niuginigold
Hello Traders. Firstly many thanks to Mr Pip for all the time and effort and willingness to pass on his extraordinary knowledge.As someone who has struggled over the years this thread has changed my perception of trading completely! Many thanks also to the regular contributors who take the time to share their ideas and analysis and prove that Mr Pips education really does work. I have been trading a demo account for the last 3 months with 9 positive and 2 negative weeks so decided this week to take the plunge and start live trading! I trade hourly...
Nice work and thanks for posting the charts.

How are you determining your stops? Looks like you are using structure to base them off of.
  • #20,677
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:25am Oct 20, 2016 7:25am
YM this morning

No edge with ON inventory and I believe we are starting to range here so I'm not going to do anything until we put in a NSH or NSL.

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  • #20,678
  • Oct 20, 2016 8:13am Oct 20, 2016 8:13am
Good Morning Traders,

The market was moving nicely towards the Gartley completion After price corrected off of 18170 the correction took it slightly past my expectation about 15 points past 18130 and then the Bulls came in to put up a NSH. Some developments that occurred overnight, very heavy volume entering the market completely overwhelmed the buyers and when this type of strength enters the market things are going to get crapy for the driving force in this case being the Bulls. This type of volume will almost always lead price into a complex correction and sometimes an expectation failure. That is a more complex lesson. Fundamental release had a negative impact causing price to break structure at 18117. This is bad for the bulls and for the Gartley. The Bulls are having major difficulty keeping price above 18160. I would like to see 18080 hold and for the Bulls to carry price above 18111. Once price achieves this it's biggest test will be 18122 area. The Gartly is still in play but the Bulls must recover the order flow they gave up.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #20,679
  • Oct 20, 2016 9:06am Oct 20, 2016 9:06am
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  • #20,680
  • Oct 20, 2016 9:21am Oct 20, 2016 9:21am
The Bulls have recovered nicely to retest the highs crazy volatility today in the markets but as you can see harmonics are respected very nicely. Bulls need to hold to 18150-18140 and make that NSH above 18170 into the area of 18200.

I will be in Toronto this weekend at a trading mastermind I leave in a few hours but I will try to keep up and continue to forecast and update you as you all can see price has within reason respected my assessment and analysis. I would like to see comments and questions on what I have been doing over the last couple of days. This is for you to appreciate and to validate what I have taught you all. Don't be shy.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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