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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #20,641
  • Oct 17, 2016 7:39am Oct 17, 2016 7:39am
Quoting Fxturn
AUDUSD Hourly chart, I think price drop down more and in first target touch 0.7535 {image}
Some zones of interest there too

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  • #20,642
  • Oct 17, 2016 11:02am Oct 17, 2016 11:02am
YM +30

I don't know if it was being away from the screens last week but today's pa was very difficult to gauge.

Notes on chart.


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  • #20,643
  • Oct 17, 2016 12:16pm Oct 17, 2016 12:16pm
USDCAD in H4 broken trend line and now touched 38% fibo. It likes touch 61.8% fibo at 1.3020 too.

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  • #20,644
  • Oct 17, 2016 12:23pm Oct 17, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting jmezz
YM +30 I don't know if it was being away from the screens last week but today's pa was very difficult to gauge. Notes on chart. {image}
No, it was difficult. Many ranges, lots of chopping.
  • #20,645
  • Oct 17, 2016 12:36pm Oct 17, 2016 12:36pm
For USDJPY(H4), I will wait drop more and break TrendLine completely and touch 23% Fibo and next open Sell for Targets 38%, 50% & 61.8% Fibo.

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  • #20,646
  • Oct 17, 2016 12:53pm Oct 17, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting jmezz
YM +30 I don't know if it was being away from the screens last week but today's pa was very difficult to gauge. Notes on chart. {image}
Although I was here last week, you saw much more. I could only catch +4.

Maybe you can borrow me your glasses.
  • #20,647
  • Edited 4:18pm Oct 17, 2016 1:59pm | Edited 4:18pm
YM

be1 on this long, let's see what happens.

Edit - out at be1

Edit 2 - Well just about hit the move that I wanted, my location was off.

Also the market did end up hitting the ONL and 17970's like I was looking for on my short. TBH given the price action at the time I'm not really sure how I could have played it smarter. In this scenario if I had locked in 5pts and let it ride then I possibly would have held for lower, however at one point my trade reached 40pts profit. I have a problem with taking a gamble and settling for 5pts when a trade is that far into profit, especially during shit price action. It just didn't seem like a smart thing to do at the time.

Anyone have any input?

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  • #20,648
  • Oct 17, 2016 5:12pm Oct 17, 2016 5:12pm
Quoting stavrogijn
{quote} No, it was difficult. Many ranges, lots of chopping.
Yeah you're right, ranging pa is difficult for how we trade in here.
  • #20,649
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:22pm Oct 17, 2016 6:22pm
Quoting jmezz
YM be1 on this long, let's see what happens. Edit - out at be1 Edit 2 - Well just about hit the move that I wanted, my location was off. Also the market did end up hitting the ONL and 17970's like I was looking for on my short. TBH given the price action at the time I'm not really sure how I could have played it smarter. In this scenario if I had locked in 5pts and let it ride then I possibly would have held for lower, however at one point my trade reached 40pts profit. I have a problem with taking a gamble and settling for 5pts when a trade is...
I tend to give a trade more room if volatility is high but with shitty PA as it was today I trailed like you did. If its slow I will probably not get many chances and I don't trade over night so I prefer not to leave much money on the table. Instead I have to accept that it's a slow day without big opportunities.
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #20,650
  • Oct 18, 2016 7:23am Oct 18, 2016 7:23am
Quoting Mr_Burns
{quote} I tend to give a trade more room if volatility is high but with shitty PA as it was today I trailed like you did. If its slow I will probably not get many chances and I don't trade over night so I prefer not to leave much money on the table. Instead I have to accept that it's a slow day without big opportunities.
Your logic is sound.

Should have probably specified that I was speaking in regard to the short I took in the morning. After I reread my post it sounds like I could be speaking about the long I posted, so that could be kind of confusing.

I don't know, it just doesn't make much sense to me. I want to adhere to the process but at the same time if I'm up 40+pts it doesn't seem like a wise gamble to possibly come away with 5pts when the day's price action sucks. I could have locked in a bit more but I like to use local structure when locking in profit and this scenario didn't give more than 5pts.

In regard to the long, sometimes I will take an aggressive trade like that with expectation that price will make a swift move up. You see it happen fairly often, price will make a small pullback then rip up and keep going without much stopping. Going into these trades I tell myself that I'll be looking for that swift move up and will be very aggressive with moving to b/e quickly, that's the nature of this type of trade for me.
  • #20,651
  • Oct 18, 2016 7:27am Oct 18, 2016 7:27am
YM this morning

Yesterday's supply zone holding well. Now looks like trying for breakout retest ~18079.

ON session very net long so could see fade move back down in RTH.

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  • #20,652
  • Oct 18, 2016 9:43am Oct 18, 2016 9:43am
YM +22

Notes on chart.

Done for the day.

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  • #20,653
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:07pm Oct 18, 2016 12:07pm
Nice counter expectation trade, jmezz! I was thinking about taking it but since we didn't have a NSL (aka it's against expectation) I was going to break my rule about not trading against expectation.
My question to you and the others is: Do you have a written trading plan?
Because the "system" , "method" or however you want to call it .. is very dynamic and there are a lot of tools that can be used and it's hard for me to write it down. When I try to come up with a good trading plan...it always ends up looking too general. I mean when I'm trading there are always little situations where there isn't anything about that in the plan and I always find myself adding in more and more little things and after a while it gets too complicated and messy.
  • #20,654
  • Oct 18, 2016 2:12pm Oct 18, 2016 2:12pm
Quoting x3m-PippiN
Nice counter expectation trade, jmezz! I was thinking about taking it but since we didn't have a NSL (aka it's against expectation) I was going to break my rule about not trading against expectation. My question to you and the others is: Do you have a written trading plan? Because the "system" , "method" or however you want to call it .. is very dynamic and there are a lot of tools that can be used and it's hard for me to write it down. When I try to come up with a good trading plan...it always ends up looking too general. I mean when I'm trading...
Thank you x3m. Had price not rejected the open like that I probably would have avoided the trade. I'm like you in that I really like to wait for that order flow change unless there are overwhelming circumstances, then I'll usually be aggressive with the stop seeing as I'm going against expectation.

Anyway, no I do not have a written trading plan because:

Quoting x3m-PippiN
When I try to come up with a good trading plan...it always ends up looking too general. I mean when I'm trading there are always little situations where there isn't anything about that in the plan and I always find myself adding in more and more little things and after a while it gets too complicated and messy.
^This.

I've tried writing a trading plan a couple of times and I've created Excel checklists also but the fact is that these are just not beneficial for how we trade (imo). We are discretionary traders. You can't make a generalized list of conditions and expect to succeed here (imo). The price patterns that we trade are typically the same but every scenario is different and requires case-by-case analysis.

We've been given everything in here, all that's left to do is experiment with it and make it our own. Once you really start putting it all together I don't think a written trade plan is needed bc it's all in your head. Everything in here is pretty straightforward and if you encounter scenarios in the market where things are not straightforward then you just wait (easier said than done).

I've seen people keep a risk plan saying they'll cut off trading after $X lost, or X wrong trades in a row, and I suppose this has its place. But at the same time, sometimes you have to keep going through a couple losses to get back positive for the day. This is up to the trader to decide, it's important to realize why you are having losing trades on the day. Is the execution off a bit or is your read totally fucked? You know?

Anyway this is just my opinion.
  • #20,655
  • Oct 18, 2016 2:15pm Oct 18, 2016 2:15pm
Rocky do you still read this thread?
  • #20,656
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:14pm Oct 18, 2016 6:14pm
Hello Traders,

Just wanted to stop in and say hello and it's nice to see you carrying it forward. Here is an observation on the YM for the next few days to a couple of weeks. The immediate expectation is for a NSH and for the Bulls to take price past 18100. As we initially saw the market find buyers at 18050 putting in a HL on a nice strong rotation candle. If the market finds further selling at the test of 18100 the Bulls will be expected to defend 18070-18050. Price should hold there but if it falls further look for buying opportunities around 18028 I don't see price getting down there as buying volume looks good and the expectation would not call for a deep correction. I expect price to get to 18200 area where it would find stronger harmonic exhaustion completing an AB=CD possible correcting to the area of 1860-1840. Prior to this we might find some obstacles at around 18160 but should get past it. The outlook is for price to look to complete a Gartley in the area of 18250 there is good structure there however the ABCD completes higher at 18278. Here is a Pic to give you a visual. Trade well my friends!
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #20,657
  • Oct 19, 2016 10:01am Oct 19, 2016 10:01am
Quoting jmezz
Rocky do you still read this thread?
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  • #20,658
  • Oct 19, 2016 10:30am Oct 19, 2016 10:30am
Quoting rocky
{quote} {image}
Great work Rocky!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #20,659
  • Oct 19, 2016 10:47am Oct 19, 2016 10:47am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Great work Rocky!
Thanks Damian, I'm sure everyone's glad to see you back. I'm headed out, Rocky!
  • #20,660
  • Oct 19, 2016 10:53am Oct 19, 2016 10:53am
YM -9, +16, +1, +10 = +18

Sloppy day today, my read was totally off.

When we created weak NSH I should have been on the lookout for the long. However I got hung up on wanting to hit the harmonic correction completion. Also was expected a deeper retracement given the weak NSH, not a 382 retracement then run up of price.

Notes on charts.

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