Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics

HI Mzvega,

Iam waiting for that eurusd brackets to break.
I think Data supports that breakout strategy.
Currently they are testing the brackets.
Today there are important news from us, so maybe the break will occur.

Greetings
C

I hope you were able to find some profits. I would have attempted the same trade, had I been awake. (PST time zone sucks). I may have exercised some caution. The lack of internal trending would have concerned me some. I would have preferred a RI < .60 on either the L or S tf. There is a -net flow, however when you break it down day by day, yesterday on it's own -6 direction and 0 for activity. Slight decrease in VTY. That would leave me to believe that today's condition hasn't/won't change much from yesterday. Tests make great intraday trades I wouldn't be surprised if the same opportunity presents itself Monday.......

I also couldnt find a trend or sub mov in one dir. Eur usd is slowly going down, but not sub. A trader should notice the strong capping activity, clearly visible on the 4h bar chart around 1,115 and 1,1230. I tought that activity would be over after the imp news release, but not yet. Small loss. Still waiting...

The data has pretty much remained the same........

audnzd & usdchf..........

Still holding EG & GU as the data continues to support the trade...................

audusd

The past 10 or so posts are very informative and interesting. I've been studying everyday trying to determine for myself what may be useful for the method and what is not, reading as much as possible Dalton, Jones, Steidlmayer, Crabel, etc. Been trading oil futures lately and remain aware of the concepts of internal shorter term auctions with overlapping longer term auctions. Still I've not compiled the analytics as a concrete trading tool like seen in past posts. I use a TPO Composite on my chart when trading futures and FX and was wondering if anyone believed it was possible to trade without a chart at all using the AMVT method. Like a person playing chess without seeing the board, is this possible to use only raw data and be profitable?

Hi Trader Krw,

I think you can answer the question by yourself.
What have you learned about the profile shape...Or in other words what tells you a profile shape?

greetings
C

That's what I thought. My trading has evolved to one of taking core FX positions in the longer tf to one of actively scalping futures in the Day tf. It is very whippy with extreme volatility. The main chart used is a single 20day 30M candlestick with TPO and Volume composites merged. Suffering first hand concerning sampling rates, tick charts and M5 charts are complete crap. It is difficult to compete with algorithms in the Day time frame.

Within MT4 I've been attempting to construct my own proprietary tools using AMT. Still fuzzy on some of the "Reference Points" or even the importance of some of these that the bulk of you traders use.

Like the screenshot above for mzvega, does "-Net Flows" mean cumulative inventory? If so that is a very interesting way to track demand. Obviously is a technique in RTH but never thought to use it in this way.

Another reference point I'm wondering about is the TFF. I know what it is and it seems interesting but is it really influential at all when decision making?

The RI seems the most important analytically. I've read the very short space about it in VBPT and the text OVERLAY that explains it better. Will continue working on this...

No.
Yes.

If you understand its use, and what it tells you about the market, why would it not influence to your trading decisions?
Can you explain to me why that info shouldn't have influence on trading decisions?

If you have read VBPT in it's entirety, you will have found many examples of it's use, and influence in analysis & trading decisions

If it's not inventory then are you able to share what you are doing there with net flows? Trying to build on as many sound concepts as possible.

Its not that it wouldn't influence a trading decision, its that it seems to me a poorer way to describe an obvious condition. Take GBPUSD for example. Right now the pattern is a NR4 with each day's range inside the previous. Clearly there is some coiling going on and the longer a pattern like this continues the more likely a big move will occur on one side or the other. It is well known that balanced prices produce energy for breakouts.

Have I not already done that throughout the thread? You're too lazy to read the thread and the source materials, and I'm too lazy to post it all over again. So where does that leave us?

It could be that you have no real vested interest in AMVA, and you only have interest in taking bits & pieces of info that you think outside of it's proper "Context" might help you trade better.

The point of the thread is that MP is based on many faulty "assumptions" that can't be supported by empirical testing. Learning a new "reference" wont change that fact. However if you only have an interest in bits & pieces of AMVA that have no meaning outside it's proper context, you can pick through the thread & source materials yourself, on your time, not mine. It would be a pointless waste of my time.

What it "describes" isn't interchangeable with how it is "used". Knowing what it describes isn't the same as knowing how that info is "used". That would require reading the source material. Remind me exactly what the source material says the TFF is used for (it's purpose). I'm too lazy to do it for you. TFF's purpose isn't used to "describe" a condition, it's a measurement used for analysis.

Please don't ask me questions or ask me to explain any source material you haven't actually taken time to read yourself first.
Who cares? The use of TA is a non-permitted practice in AMVT. And what does it have to do with the topic of the thread or how TFF is used for analysis?

Did I not already explain to you that the holistic" pattern recognition used in MP has no place/or utility in AMVT. Any "pattern" for that matter.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post9128866

I don't want to spend my time answering a bunch of questions based on faulty MP "assumptions" and chart patterns that can't be supported by empirical testing.
You cant quantify chart patterns. AMVA uses "numerical evidence" (objective data). AMVA is not "MP concepts using larger profiles with dash of TA"

Please don't ask me anymore questions outside of the source material. If you have trouble understanding something you read in the thread, source material, or in VBPT, I can help with those questions.

That way I can spend what little time I do have, answering questions for those who have a "real" vested interest in the topic of the thread.

Hi Krw

your comment/question:

"Another reference point I'm wondering about is the TFF. I know what it is and it seems interesting but is it really influential at all when decision making?"

tells me that you have not understood one of the most important principles of auction market theory and/or market profiling.
The tff is one of the most important refs, invented by Jones. Also Steidlmayer invented a similar tool. But if you dont know what its about, then you cant use this reference point.

Please have a look again at the articles and books.

"Right now the pattern is a NR4 with each day's range inside the previous."

This thread is about auction market theory. Why are you using Toby Crabels terms here? Please stop doing that or you have to leave the thread. Make sure witch method you want to learn, both dont match. You cant mix up price trader methods with market profiling methods.

Greetings
C

Okay points noted so I started reading VBPT again. Futures is where the money is at and I just want to make money. I realize the road is long.

Leaving my mark, this type of analysis suit my taste well. Be back later to read all the stuff. Thx for sharing.

I was somewhat late with both trades. I missed both initial breaks. However it doesn't matter, when you trade the change of from condition to another (bracket to trend) you can always position yourself in the direction of the LTF trend after the fact......

Trading with LTF info intraday still makes you a day trader, how long you hold determines whether or not it’s a LTF or short tf trade. The best day trades are made using LTF info.