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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,021
  • Oct 10, 2016 5:44am Oct 10, 2016 5:44am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} It is a nice carry too. For now all HRC has to sit tight and she will be in the seat. Trump manage to do the self destruction. Has been drawing a longer term map with major S/R areas and possible flip how I look it. Nice Trumpometer. It is a trade that will need a lot of patience. I have outlook short term strong sell, mid term sell, and long term neutral. PS correlation to oil is almost non existing I attach also correlation table. {image} {image}
Seriously strong correlation to the DAX.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDMXD-DAX.PNG Size: 140 KB
  • #144,022
  • Oct 10, 2016 5:46am Oct 10, 2016 5:46am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Hi Earleone: what is the meaning of colors? how do you read your correlation table? Thanks!
Weak to none correlation is green
Weak correlation in blue
Medium correlation in orange
Strong correlation in red

- Correlation means that going same direction on the instruments shall cancel each other out ( If correlation is 100 % )
+ Correlation means that going same direction on the instruments shall have similar profits / loss ( If correlation is 100 % )

I mostly look the correlation on daily with history 300 bars. It can look very different on 1H chart or weekly. So it is something to consider too.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,023
  • Oct 10, 2016 5:51am Oct 10, 2016 5:51am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Weak to none correlation is green Weak correlation in blue Medium correlation in orange Strong correlation in red - Correlation means that going same direction on the instruments shall cancel each other out ( If correlation is 100 % ) + Correlation means that going same direction on the instruments shall have similar profits / loss ( If correlation is 100 % )
Thanks so much!
  • #144,024
  • Oct 10, 2016 5:59am Oct 10, 2016 5:59am
Quoting The Fool
peso drops hard over the weekend and the 2nd debate not enough to move it more than a few pesetas either way. Where do you think the peso will be in Q1 2017, with HRC in the WH and WTI pushing towards $60? {image}
Peso should be a nice carry trade and a good bet for higher oil prices like USD/RUB is but unfortunately as it is entangled in US politics and with Trump's rhetoric being so negative for Mexico it remains under pressure. If Trump drops out or he loses the elections and oil is still at the same or higher levels then we should see steep appreciation in MXN. It is a good bet for next year for sure, assuming of course that no internal Mexican political instability exists.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,025
  • Oct 10, 2016 6:01am Oct 10, 2016 6:01am
Quoting fxtrader18
{quote} Seriously strong correlation to the DAX. {image}
what is the rational between correlating peso and the DAX?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,026
  • Oct 10, 2016 6:03am Oct 10, 2016 6:03am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} It is a nice carry too. For now all HRC has to sit tight and she will be in the seat. Trump manage to do the self destruction. Has been drawing a longer term map with major S/R areas and possible flip how I look it. Nice Trumpometer. It is a trade that will need a lot of patience. I have outlook short term strong sell, mid term sell, and long term neutral. PS correlation to oil is almost non existing I attach also correlation table. {image} {image}
Thanks Earleone for the table. It is interesting that at the moment USD/MXN seems to be correlated with USDX more than anything else, as we see the high correlation to UJ and GU.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,027
  • Edited 8:45am Oct 10, 2016 8:14am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Thanks Earleone for the table. It is interesting that at the moment USD/MXN seems to be correlated with USDX more than anything else, as we see the high correlation to UJ and GU.
I mainly trade it on expectations that Trump will not be elected. ( If it will look like he can come in that position again and we get expectation that he will win it is time to cancel the trade ) I think this is the main for MXN now . And my main point was to show that it is a very weak correlations to Oil, and also to USDX the last 1 1/2 year so even if USD up and oil goes down MXN can strengthen against USD . I have bullish USD outlook and goes against it. And I have no problem to do it since correlation is weak. If we look short term we find stronger / weaker correlations. We can see what we want to see actually if we look short term and ignore long term and vice versa. . It is a little bit similar to look every S/R level based on structure + MA + trendlines + Multi tf you will always find levels if you want to so not any holy grail, just a tool in the toolbox.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,028
  • Oct 10, 2016 8:46am Oct 10, 2016 8:46am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I mainly trade it on expectations that Trump will not be elected. ( If it will look like he can come in that position again and we get expectation that he will win it is time to cancel the trade ) I think this is the main for MXN now . And my main point was to show that it is a very weak correlations to Oil, and also to USDX the last 1 1/2 year so even if USD up and oil goes down MXN can strengthen against USD . I have bullish USD outlook and goes against it. And I have no problem to do it since correlation is weak. If we look short term...
I am with you there. Totally agree. It is an interesting trade that might pay off big next year
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,029
  • Oct 10, 2016 8:47am Oct 10, 2016 8:47am
"....can you spot the flip?" ---sissie

In USD/JPY FLIP : 101.7x or 102.7x.
  • #144,030
  • Oct 10, 2016 9:04am Oct 10, 2016 9:04am
I'd like a chance to buy USD/JPY near 103.10/15 tomorrow...or maybe sell EUR/USD at 1.1175/80.....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,031
  • Oct 10, 2016 9:22am Oct 10, 2016 9:22am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I'd like a chance to buy USD/JPY near 103.10/15 tomorrow...or maybe sell EUR/USD at 1.1175/80.....
glad to see you posting....I have a pending buy above the current high for a momentum trade if possible on UJ, same for the low on EU

otherwise generally looking for positions in the same direction you're going
  • #144,032
  • Oct 10, 2016 9:43am Oct 10, 2016 9:43am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} glad to see you posting....I have a pending buy above the current high for a momentum trade if possible on UJ, same for the low on EU otherwise generally looking for positions in the same direction you're going
gtocha, well I wont do anything today, just took a quick look to see what was cooking....also have 7655 marked in the AUD for shorts...catch ya later bro
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,033
  • Oct 10, 2016 10:45am Oct 10, 2016 10:45am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I mainly trade it on expectations that Trump will not be elected. ( If it will look like he can come in that position again and we get expectation that he will win it is time to cancel the trade ) I think this is the main for MXN now . And my main point was to show that it is a very weak correlations to Oil, and also to USDX the last 1 1/2 year so even if USD up and oil goes down MXN can strengthen against USD . I have bullish USD outlook and goes against it. And I have no problem to do it since correlation is weak. If we look short term...
On the MXN right now I would probably wait for it to close the gap at 19.20 or so and then go heavily short with longer term horizon.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,034
  • Oct 10, 2016 11:02am Oct 10, 2016 11:02am
Quoting manosk
{quote} On the MXN right now I would probably wait for it to close the gap at 19.20 or so and then go heavily short with longer term horizon.
I think that can be a very good opportunity. I will hold on the positions I have ( has lifted off some ) In case it continue south directly ( I dont beleive that will happen. But as in the USDRUB where you held and I was going flat I was not in on the good move . If it retrace back and close the gap I will try to load up more in that area fading the bounce.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,035
  • Oct 10, 2016 11:07am Oct 10, 2016 11:07am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} gtocha, well I wont do anything today, just took a quick look to see what was cooking....also have 7655 marked in the AUD for shorts...catch ya later bro
Not a bad game plan

dollar basket trade could be lined up for those 3 and the right timing
  • #144,036
  • Oct 10, 2016 11:13am Oct 10, 2016 11:13am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I think that can be a very good opportunity. I will hold on the positions I have ( has lifted off some ) In case it continue south directly ( I dont beleive that will happen. But as in the USDRUB where you held and I was going flat I was not in on the good move . If it retrace back and close the gap I will try to load up more in that area fading the bounce.
Good strategy. If are already short you did the right thing so hold on to it and add if the opportunity arises. For someone like me with no position I need to see some retracement before I enter.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,037
  • Oct 10, 2016 12:46pm Oct 10, 2016 12:46pm
What is it that is driving e/u... Any guess?
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,038
  • Oct 10, 2016 12:51pm Oct 10, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting primejarvis
What is it that is driving e/u... Any guess?

Clinton? Paul Ryan , Republican Leader said he will not support Trump.
Im a Crocodile, Im a Sniper. Patience is everything.
  • #144,039
  • Oct 10, 2016 12:54pm Oct 10, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting Peruvian80
{quote} Clinton? Paul Ryan , Republican Leader said he will not support Trump.
I don't think so ... Buddy ... Any more guesses..
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,040
  • Oct 10, 2016 1:03pm Oct 10, 2016 1:03pm
Quoting primejarvis
What is it that is driving e/u... Any guess?
Same thing what we have been discussing before and after friday NFP .

NFP which came less than forecast still inline with market expectations for a hike by year end

NFP was a solid trigger that market has been waiting for since last FOMC

Euro is already under pressure from all fronts for obvious reasons by now [ Deutsche Bank, Brexit , banking system(italy) , ECB...]

Clinton has the upper hand in election as markets sees it at least [ check MXN ...]

Today US bank holiday

For all the above which is a fraction of reasons , EU has nothing but to fall on inertia !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
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