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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,921
  • Oct 6, 2016 11:42pm Oct 6, 2016 11:42pm
This is a wake up call, at least it is for me. These markets are for the birds. You cant have an serious money on the table anymore. Hell, we had more liquidity in Pork Bellies or Oats, than we do in cable. No prices on cable for 30 seconds, lol..reminds me of calling NY one afternoon to get an offer on some Palladium during the great run up, and there was none. I've been at this for almost 25yrs, and for the most part come out unscathed, but what if I was working some bids in cable near 1.25 on 20 or 25 lots? They would have filled my stops at 1.20, gee thanks. Its fine if you trade one lots I guess, but maybe your broker doesn't answer his phone in the morning. God knows that's happen before. I'm lightening up my FX exposure immediately, and looking for new avenues. Maybe I'll go down to the main fruit market, and start trading in tomatoes or lettuce. Just thought I'd leave this note in this thread, as there are some sensible people here, no use in talking to the gamblers.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #143,922
  • Oct 7, 2016 1:03am Oct 7, 2016 1:03am
Quoting PayTheLimit
This is a wake up call, at least it is for me. These markets are for the birds. You cant have an serious money on the table anymore. Hell, we had more liquidity in Pork Bellies or Oats, than we do in cable. No prices on cable for 30 seconds, lol..reminds me of calling NY one afternoon to get an offer on some Palladium during the great run up, and there was none. I've been at this for almost 25yrs, and for the most part come out unscathed, but what if I was working some bids in cable near 1.25 on 20 or 25 lots? They would have filled my stops at...
It's called a liquidity bubble, and we got it from the illiquid Asia session via smart money taking into account today's IMF, Chancellor of the Exchequer, May, and Carney talks all in unison speaking LIVE about this hard exit and desperation. Smart money took grip and created this "flash crash". Unfortunate for some, and they'll have to answer for themselves; they lost accounts while fighting a huge downtrend. Lesson is, we have seen just how low the market was pricing in Brexit, and now that we obliterated all structure, where is the lower bound? No clue... just as all markets go.

This is why I follow sisse, pham0r and others, as macro issues are taking predominance at this moment in time. Perhaps look at /OJ and hurricane Matthew, calm before the storm...so to speak.
  • #143,923
  • Oct 7, 2016 1:24am Oct 7, 2016 1:24am
WTF

Nice to wake up to And it is the Turkish Lira against GBP . Was planned as a long term carry .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,924
  • Oct 7, 2016 1:32am Oct 7, 2016 1:32am
Eyes on the opening range after the capitulation move. London need to digest the move first and after expect a lot of talking heads in the upcoming hours in small 'tweeet' trading session on the Pound.

A plethora of updates for today starting with:

--> Sterling unexpectedly clearing major targets, first GU that triggered GAME, SET and MATCH in the last leg that started o the weekend when they announced Article 50:

Quoting sisse
...--> Changing mid term outlook in Sterling from Sell to Aggressive Sell
Quoting sisse
... Sterling joining GU triggering imminent break down alerts i
Quoting sisse
...and I will take that in Sterling (GU). Triple clearing main mid term swing target after the tick to the 1.26xx [check] handle. Superb and simple ride in the Pound since Brexit.
Quoting sisse
They are even extreme concerns that they will loose even accrss to the common market. Trading those expectations is the capitulation move 1.22xx [super check] which is the one in play for the macro swing.
-->Major and final target cleared a double hit in GU at 1.228x overnight and sisse is officially flat and NOT looking for positions in GU for only the second time since last December...

...also GY main target cleared on the test 126.6x and its aggressive trailing time. Final target look very hard to reach after that sharp move in GU.

Quoting sisse
imminent break down alerts in GY this time which it's potentially the scariest ...GY losing the current unlock....(with ref stops at 126.xx [check] and 120.xx).
--> Finally and the softer one, taking surprisingly first main target in EG after a very choppy ride on the test 0.912x

Quoting sisse
...Sterling keep getting hit, really active and getting hammered at key levels across the board. EG confirming the break 0.86xx and GJ
...There is major updates and check on yearly and mid term outlooks coming ....we'll check them later before NFP....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,925
  • Oct 7, 2016 2:03am Oct 7, 2016 2:03am
Quoting PayTheLimit
This is a wake up call, at least it is for me. These markets are for the birds. ......Just thought I'd leave this note in this thread, as there are some sensible people here, no use in talking to the gamblers.
Hey, gamblers gotta eat, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,926
  • Oct 7, 2016 2:08am Oct 7, 2016 2:08am
re: NFP 171k, prolly a softball, big beat brings back good news=bad news meme, omg here comes the Fed, 0.25 ffr hike, one per year maybe, like miniature Godzilla, run away, runaway! ...but really maybe that will set the stage for true freakout mode on WS as the Trump vs. Clinton polls tighten up down the stretch. Unless he blows it Sunday. I did not have sex with that woman!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,927
  • Oct 7, 2016 2:13am Oct 7, 2016 2:13am
...and after a rather long and very choppy wait an update in the iteration front, 1.110x hit right on time for NFP. Plenty to talk and wrap up in this leg later....we'll open decision time for NFP.


For now eyes on rather dull UK news as the levels are so thin around here that any winds could make Sterling flight a couple of handles up and down.....

Quoting sisse
+++++ Iteration 19A +++++

Quoting sisse
{quote} As usual after completing a flow leg especially today that we are set for a soft 'roll play' today before NFP. Only for those short: +++++ Opening Iteration 19A +++++ Currently Euro trading @ 1.117x


+++++ Iteration 19 +++++

Currently Euro trading @ 1.110x

" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"


SELL

Fisher755, primejarvis, nuts, ptoftangency, Earlobe, Fadhl, goosebone, Pharm0r, eborn, suntan, CommercialB, clayey, chester123,


Sell (Price Entry)
-> LMT SELL 1.130x [check]-> TP1 => 1.120x [check] -> TP2 =>1.110x [check] ....... | STP => 1.138x


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,928
  • Oct 7, 2016 2:29am Oct 7, 2016 2:29am
Quoting sisse
...and after a rather long and very choppy wait an update in the iteration front, 1.110x hit right on time for NFP. Plenty to talk and wrap up in this leg later....we'll open decision time for NFP. For now eyes on rather dull UK news as the levels are so thin around here that any winds could make Sterling flight a couple of handles up and down..... {quote} {quote} +++++ Iteration 19 +++++ Currently Euro trading @ 1.110x " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators" SELL Fisher755,...
For me it is very interesting to see how long ago this was...
EU weeks for 200 pips, GU 2 minutes for more than that.
And BTW, Sisse, hat off for you. Your FA knowledge is extraordinary. Not many traders can match you.
PVSRA
  • #143,929
  • Oct 7, 2016 2:38am Oct 7, 2016 2:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} +++++ Iteration 19 +++++ Currently Euro trading @ 1.110x " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators" SELL Fisher755, primejarvis, nuts, ptoftangency, Earlobe, Fadhl, goosebone,...
For me, biggest lesson in this case was the waiting game. Being patient and let the profit run. Normally, I would have cleared all at 1.120x.
  • #143,930
  • Oct 7, 2016 3:15am Oct 7, 2016 3:15am
Quoting PayTheLimit
This is a wake up call, at least it is for me. These markets are for the birds. You cant have an serious money on the table anymore. Hell, we had more liquidity in Pork Bellies or Oats, than we do in cable. No prices on cable for 30 seconds, lol..reminds me of calling NY one afternoon to get an offer on some Palladium during the great run up, and there was none. I've been at this for almost 25yrs, and for the most part come out unscathed, but what if I was working some bids in cable near 1.25 on 20 or 25 lots? They would have filled my stops at...
crazy times we live in, mostly agreed though. Ive stated before Id max out my portfolio in fx around 250k regadless of how many millions I had. Futures seems to be the better fit, and fx is drying up for retail as it is....then again trading in general is drying up thanks to HFT.

Hope you came out alright, bound to hear of brokers being burnt (again) and god knows how many fortunes erradicated....plus the inbound lawsuits to go with that. Glad to see youre still alive though
  • #143,931
  • Oct 7, 2016 3:33am Oct 7, 2016 3:33am
soft numbers from the UK. Watch-out for 1.227x for NFP in GU...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,932
  • Oct 7, 2016 3:36am Oct 7, 2016 3:36am
I imagine the UK Equities may crash very soon!
  • #143,933
  • Oct 7, 2016 3:44am Oct 7, 2016 3:44am
Quoting Pharm0r
....then again trading in general is drying up thanks to HFT.
it's the CB's...the motherfuckers need to burn
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,934
  • Oct 7, 2016 5:04am Oct 7, 2016 5:04am
Quoting sisse
soft numbers from the UK. Watch-out for 1.227x for NFP in GU... sisse
I couldn't resist to post ,Awesome call
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #143,935
  • Oct 7, 2016 5:20am Oct 7, 2016 5:20am
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
{quote} I couldn't resist to post ,Awesome call
Quoting sisse
soft numbers from the UK. Watch-out for 1.227x [check] for NFP in GU... sisse
... ....done ...thanks

and that was pretty much for a wild session in Sterling session.

Things are going to start drastically changing in Sterling after NFP and the current capitulation settles down. Brexit part II is in full swing. In this second stage we will start shifting from Sterling feeling the pain to UK Equities feeling the pressure. The turning point? the BOE and if Carney abandon ship on a rush even before ...

All eyes back to the US and key Dollar play today ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,936
  • Oct 7, 2016 5:31am Oct 7, 2016 5:31am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} crazy times we live in, mostly agreed though. Ive stated before Id max out my portfolio in fx around 250k regadless of how many millions I had. Futures seems to be the better fit, and fx is drying up for retail as it is....then again trading in general is drying up thanks to HFT. Hope you came out alright, bound to hear of brokers being burnt (again) and god knows how many fortunes erradicated....plus the inbound lawsuits to go with that. Glad to see youre still alive though
It is funny you should say that.
Seems to me that Sisse got out more than alright.

If that happened to any of them, they should all fire their CEOs and follow Sisse on Twiter or here! LOL!
PVSRA
  • #143,937
  • Oct 7, 2016 6:38am Oct 7, 2016 6:38am
i really dont have anything to say about the marvelous exceptional & extraordinary understanding of sisse on Fundamentals ....

coming back to trading ...

E/u : waiting of NFP to give a hammer and take it to exactly where it belongs to .... cracked the weak foundation today / upper deck full of bears to hit the hammer if .... waiting is the game and nothing to see except patience ....

Competition : Commerzbank Disses Deutsche Bank in Blitz to Lure German Clients
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,938
  • Oct 7, 2016 6:46am Oct 7, 2016 6:46am
Quoting sisse
+++++Opening table for the 9th Iteration in the second round to get in synch with the market +++++" -Question 19: Choose your poison time in the Euro for the 3er time this year for the mid term swing. How would you position for a trade?
Quoting sisse
......" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators" SELL Fisher755, primejarvis, nuts, ptoftangency, Earlobe, Fadhl, goosebone, Pharm0r,...
2nd Target hit in the first part of mid term iteration 19 so for the third time


+++++ OPENING Iteration 19C +++++

Currently Euro trading @ 1.113x

" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"


Question only open for those still alive in the iteration.

SELL

Fisher755, primejarvis, nuts, ptoftangency, Earlobe, Fadhl, goosebone, Pharm0r, eborn, suntan, CommercialB, clayey, chester123,


Q19c: After a choppy beginning of the move. Two targets cleared and Sterling capitulating with NFP for a potential RMT. How would you manage the remaining position?:

a. "Nothing to see its today or in a few weeks ...hikes are here" ... sit tight and let it play out to TP3
b. "Its today or never...a flop in NFP will kill Euro for the rest of year ..." play it safely here aggressively trailing stop to @1.122x
c. "No way FED will hike this year especially with election and Europe descending in chaos..." ...play the reverso clearing all and going LONG if we tick above 1.122x to Long TP targets ...


Choose your poison ASAP ...if you don't its assume you stay put ....

Sell (Price Entry ...automatically trigger in the stochastic entry if hit too)

-> LMT SELL 1.130x [check]-> TP1 => 1.120x [check] -> TP2 =>1.110x [check] --> -> TP3 =>1.100x .... -> TP4 | STP => 1.138x

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,939
  • Oct 7, 2016 6:53am Oct 7, 2016 6:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} 2nd Target hit in the first part of mid term iteration 19 so for the third time +++++ OPENING Iteration 19C +++++ Currently Euro trading @ 1.113x " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators" Question only open for those still alive in the iteration. SELL Fisher755, primejarvis, nuts, ptoftangency, Earlobe,...
b. "Its today or never...a flop in NFP will kill Euro for the rest of year ..." play it safely here aggressively trailing stop to @1.122x
PVSRA
  • #143,940
  • Oct 7, 2016 6:55am Oct 7, 2016 6:55am
Quoting sisse
a. "Nothing to see its today or in a few weeks ...hikes are here" ... sit tight and let it play out to TP3
I'm still convinced of the hike, even with the current state of the EZ. In my book, fed doesn't have any other option.
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